Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

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technovelist
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Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by technovelist » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:47 pm

Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by sophie » Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:04 am

I saw this.

What Tim's podcast was based on is the percentage of early votes according to political party, because Biden voters/Democrats are overwhelmingly more likely than Republicans to vote by mail. Michigan is an outlier with more early voting by Republicans (41% Republican, 39% Democrat, and 20% Independent), but most states are showing that most early votes are Democrats (as high as 75% in Pennsylvania). I guess Tim is figuring that this means many more Republicans than Democrats are turning out in Michigan.

I think he missed the most interesting point though: the high rate at which mail-in ballots are thrown out. The New York Post reported that in NYC's primary election, 84,108 of the 403,103 mail-in ballots were invalidated for various reasons. That's 21%!!!!! Polls show that something like 80% of Biden voters are voting by mail, whereas less than 30% of Trump voters are. In a close race, this could very well become a deciding factor since it will effectively add a couple percentage points to Trump's column. Assuming of course that the rate of ballot rejection averages similar between the two groups.

If I were Trump, I'd be doing exactly what he's doing about mail-in voting. He knows full well that if he rails against mail-in voting, the press will gleefully pass this on to voters. People voting for Trump will avoid mail-in ballots like the plague, and those voting against Trump will be even more likely to use the mail-in option. And after the election, when the pundits realize that close races were lost because of mail-in ballot issues, Trump will be able to say "I told you so."
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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by glennds » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:33 pm

sophie wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:04 am

I think he missed the most interesting point though: the high rate at which mail-in ballots are thrown out. The New York Post reported that in NYC's primary election, 84,108 of the 403,103 mail-in ballots were invalidated for various reasons. That's 21%!!!!!
What are some of the common reasons that mail-in ballots were invalidated in NYC?
Was it something to do with the way the ballot was completed by the voter?
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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by vnatale » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:54 pm

glennds wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:33 pm
sophie wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:04 am

I think he missed the most interesting point though: the high rate at which mail-in ballots are thrown out. The New York Post reported that in NYC's primary election, 84,108 of the 403,103 mail-in ballots were invalidated for various reasons. That's 21%!!!!!
What are some of the common reasons that mail-in ballots were invalidated in NYC?
Was it something to do with the way the ballot was completed by the voter?
I am listening to the Sunday news shows on C-Span radio today from noon to 5 PM. This was just recently addressed on the George S show. You hit on the reason in your last sentence. All rules not properly followed in regards to those mail in ballots ended up with them being invalidated.

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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by sophie » Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:07 pm

The article gave some information but the numbers were very confusing. They cited three reasons: ballots arriving late, no postmark in the correct location, and no voter signature on the outside envelope.

Some of this is the USPS screwing up, but obviously not all. I imagine there are lots of ways to fill out a ballot incorrectly, and of course people could have mailed them in late. Also, if the USPS lost ballots they would never be received and thus are not included in the count. I don't expect that this would be any better in a national election, in fact it would be worse because a lot more people vote in general elections than primaries so the pressure at USPS will be greater. I also doubt very much that New York would be any better or worse than anyplace else.

article here:
https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mai ... -election/
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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by Tortoise » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:43 pm

A mail-in ballot for which a high percentage of its users (say, 10-20%) accidentally fill it out incorrectly seems like an obvious failure from a design perspective.

Things should be designed with “user error” in mind in order to robustly handle it.
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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by glennds » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:47 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:43 pm
A mail-in ballot for which a high percentage of its users (say, 10-20%) accidentally fill it out incorrectly seems like an obvious failure from a design perspective.

Things should be designed with “user error” in mind in order to robustly handle it.
I agree, and assuming the ballots are designed to this standard and a user still fouls up the completion, that's on them and should not be attributed to voter suppression or fraud or hanky panky or whatever. The voter has some accountability too.
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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by vnatale » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:59 pm

I think it might be a case wherein the states who have been doing it for a while probably have much lower voter ballot error rates than those just starting to do it? Or, now pushing do it?

Wouldn't we expect as each year goes by that each state would get better at educating the voters AND the voters would get better at properly filling out their ballots in all ways?

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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by Tortoise » Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:07 pm

I don’t think “educating the voters” on how to properly fill out mail-in ballots should be needed.

If the ballot were designed simply and robustly enough, it would be intuitive and self-evident to the vast majority of people how to fill it out.

Once such a ballot standard were designed, it could easily be shared among the various states.
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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by vnatale » Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:37 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:07 pm
I don’t think “educating the voters” on how to properly fill out mail-in ballots should be needed.

If the ballot were designed simply and robustly enough, it would be intuitive and self-evident to the vast majority of people how to fill it out.

Once such a ballot standard were designed, it could easily be shared among the various states.
It could be shared. But each state is on its own as to things like that and I'm sure various states would think their ballot design should be the standard. Thus, we'll probably continue to have 50 different ballots.

Vinny
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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by sophie » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:25 pm

OTOH...

If a person can't follow simple directions to fill out a ballot that most people do manage to fill out correctly, I would guess that their vote is not too well informed either. i.e. no loss.

Kind of like an IQ test for voters. I'd be in favor.
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Re: Biden Campaign ADMITS The Polls Are WRONG, Trump Is Actually Winning ALREADY In Some Areas

Post by vnatale » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:06 pm

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