If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

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Cortopassi
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:46 am

It's a great ad.

I know you are ignoring me, but in case you see this, just tell me what things a republican mayor/council (whatever form of gvt they have) would do to change things?

Trump gets elected mayor of Chicago. What does he do?

Do democrats do something specific that keep these communities in these bad situations on purpose? I want to be optimistic and say no. But I can't deny that most are run by democrats.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Xan » Tue Aug 18, 2020 9:51 am

That's an interesting question, Corto. It's always worth thinking about causality. Certainly the mayor could do things differently that would help, but would it really fix the problem?

I think the real answer is the culture of a place. The culture will produce particular kinds of mayors, as well as particular levels of street violence.

In your counterfactual "Trump gets elected mayor of Chicago": certainly there would be things he could do, but really what such an event would represent would be that rank-and-file Chicagoans are tired of the violence and really, actually want it to stop. "Trump" in that situation would be riding that wave of public support and have a mandate to clean things up. That wave/mandate is what is really needed.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:08 am

I don't want to go anti-gun liberal here, but here's 2020 data from heyjackass.

I wonder what the murder rates in the US would be if guns weren't accessible, like in so many other countries? I assume there would still be crimes of many types, but take guns out of the equation, and Chicago's rate would drop like a rock.

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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by shekels » Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:04 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:08 am
I don't want to go anti-gun liberal here, but here's 2020 data from heyjackass.

I wonder what the murder rates in the US would be if guns weren't accessible, like in so many other countries? I assume there would still be crimes of many types, but take guns out of the equation, and Chicago's rate would drop like a rock.

Seems like it is a false premise
You assume Guns Kill People. People Kill people..
Guns are the preferred method in this instance.
If someone was going to kill you without a gun, do you think they could find another way?

Like this for instance..
https://youtu.be/Hm72LSVMHmk
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:17 am

shekels wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:04 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:08 am
I don't want to go anti-gun liberal here, but here's 2020 data from heyjackass.

I wonder what the murder rates in the US would be if guns weren't accessible, like in so many other countries? I assume there would still be crimes of many types, but take guns out of the equation, and Chicago's rate would drop like a rock.

Seems like it is a false premise
You assume Guns Kill People. People Kill people..
Guns are the preferred method in this instance.
If someone was going to kill you without a gun, do you think they could find another way?

Like this for instance..
https://youtu.be/Hm72LSVMHmk
I do not at all accept that suddenly death by stabbings rockets to the same level as deaths by guns currently is.

Guns are impersonal, kill by distance things. You don't even have to clearly see a person to shoot at them. Comparing that to stabbing, or beating to death, which is more personal I believe is apples and oranges. Not saying it won't take some place of gun killings, but at nowhere the level.

And there would be a likely drop to zero of these accidental killings of 9 year olds by stray bullets.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by shekels » Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:19 am

shekels wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:04 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:08 am
I don't want to go anti-gun liberal here, but here's 2020 data from heyjackass.

I wonder what the murder rates in the US would be if guns weren't accessible, like in so many other countries? I assume there would still be crimes of many types, but take guns out of the equation, and Chicago's rate would drop like a rock.

Seems like it is a false premise
You assume Guns Kill People. People Kill people..
Guns are the preferred method in this instance.
If someone was going to kill you without a gun, do you think they could find another way?

Like this for instance..
https://youtu.be/Hm72LSVMHmk
One more thing I will add, Do you think Legal Gun ownership is the problem in Chicago?
Or are you trying to decide if Chicago's Gun laws are not strict enough.They have one of the strictest gun laws.
Now I will suggest that if everyone carried a Concealed Gun in Chicago,the the crime in Chicago would go down after a breaking in period.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by shekels » Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:22 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:17 am
shekels wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:04 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:08 am
I don't want to go anti-gun liberal here, but here's 2020 data from heyjackass.

I wonder what the murder rates in the US would be if guns weren't accessible, like in so many other countries? I assume there would still be crimes of many types, but take guns out of the equation, and Chicago's rate would drop like a rock.

Seems like it is a false premise
You assume Guns Kill People. People Kill people..
Guns are the preferred method in this instance.
If someone was going to kill you without a gun, do you think they could find another way?

Like this for instance..
https://youtu.be/Hm72LSVMHmk
I do not at all accept that suddenly death by stabbings rockets to the same level as deaths by guns currently is.

Guns are impersonal, kill by distance things. You don't even have to clearly see a person to shoot at them. Comparing that to stabbing, or beating to death, which is more personal I believe is apples and oranges. Not saying it won't take some place of gun killings, but at nowhere the level.

And there would be a likely drop to zero of these accidental killings of 9 year olds by stray bullets.
Again you seem to still blame guns, and not people for their lack of responsibility's in a "civilized" society.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:52 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:05 pm
That youtube video was already removed for 'violations, blah blah', but if you look at London where guns are completely banned, people use knives to kill people a-plenty. Agree with Shekels, it's not the legal gun owners, farmers, skeet shooters and hunters that are the problem. Criminals will get guns no matter the law, and use them unlawfully. Also, Lightfoot's BS about Indiana being the problem is complete nonsense.
Oh, c'mon give me a break.

In the UK: "There were 259 sharp instrument homicides recorded in the year ending March 2019" out of 671 total homicides for the YEAR. In a country of 66 million people.

Compared to 16,214 in the US, 72% of which were with guns.

Please. Guns don't kill people, people kill people. No one should be killing anyone, but guns make it a whole lot easier.

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https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/20 ... able-7.xls
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Tortoise » Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:38 pm

Apples to oranges. Let's normalize the numbers a bit for a fair comparison.

First, the U.S. population is about 330 million -- 5 times higher than the U.K. population. So divide the number of U.S. homicides by 5.

Next, the majority (74%) of homicides in the U.S. are committed by blacks and Hispanics, but there are almost no blacks or Hispanics in the U.K., so multiply the number of U.S. homicides by (1 - 0.74) = 0.26 to get the number of non-Hispanic white homicides.

What you end up with is (16,214 / 5) * 0.26 = 843 non-Hispanic white homicides in the U.S. normalized to the U.K.'s population. That's a little bit higher than the U.K.'s 671, but not ridiculously so. They're in the same ballpark.

Seems like that weakens the guns-are-the-problem argument just a bit, doesn't it?
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by WiseOne » Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:06 pm

Thanks for doing the numbers Tortoise! That's exactly what I was thinking as I read Cortopassi's post. It's the same problem with the famous "Tale of Two Cities" paper comparing murder rates in Seattle and Vancouver.

And of that 74% of homicides committed by blacks and Hispanics, what proportion were committed by blacks and what is the rate of homicides for each population? I suspect Hispanics are far less likely to commit crimes than blacks, and they are just as poor/disenfranchised/etc. So much for THAT excuse.

I was walking through a Hispanic neighborhood today (in the morning - that's the time to walk through funky neighborhoods because the criminals are all still in bed). It's been beset by crime in recent months, which is a shame because it's actually a really fun, vibrant scene straight out of Santo Domingo. I saw one store with this sign in the window: "Don't even think about robbing this store. We will call the cops on you. Have fun getting arrested." I thought wow, they are optimistic, on the other hand the sentiment was good to see. I'd heard that plenty of Hispanic residents in the neighborhood are Trump supporters with zero sympathy for the BLM movement.

BTW if you want a glimpse of said neighborhood here is a movie set in it - not out yet but there's a trailer:

https://www.imdb.com/video/vi3054812953 ... t_pr_ov_vi

The trailer is awesome. The director actually lives in my coop which is how I heard of this.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Tortoise » Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:30 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:06 pm
And of that 74% of homicides committed by blacks and Hispanics, what proportion were committed by blacks and what is the rate of homicides for each population? I suspect Hispanics are far less likely to commit crimes than blacks, and they are just as poor/disenfranchised/etc. So much for THAT excuse.
According to Wikipedia, it's 52% black and 22% Hispanic.

For reference, the U.S. population is 13.4% black and 18.3% Hispanic or Latino. So the per-capita homicide offense rate for American Hispanics/Latinos is less than 1/3 that of American blacks.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:48 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:06 pm
Thanks for doing the numbers Tortoise! That's exactly what I was thinking as I read Cortopassi's post. It's the same problem with the famous "Tale of Two Cities" paper comparing murder rates in Seattle and Vancouver.
IIRC, here's a fun fact about that paper:

The black murder rate in Vancouver is higher than the black murder rate in Seattle, and the white murder rate in Vancouver is also higher than the white murder rate in Seattle.

The difference is that there are almost no blacks in Vancouver; they have a lot of minorities but they are almost all Asians, who commit very few murders.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:36 pm

I absolutely agree on the divide by 5 for per capita murder, but then segregating out by race/color, that is certainly an angle you can go down but not what I was getting at. I was getting at that argument guns make it easier to kill people.

So 16214/5 = 3242 murders in the US vs. 671 in the UK, with most in the US by guns.

Our overall murder rate is almost 5x UK's.

I totally understand the "this only happens in certain neighborhoods" argument, for sure. But the bottom line is if there were magically zero guns in the US, I think (could be wrong) that those would not 100% be replaced by stabbings, for example, and our murder rate goes way down closer to other industrialized nations. Regardless of the color of the people shooting.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:40 pm

Pug, why does a country like the UK not have a similar black market for guns? I'm sure they have one for drugs.

Yes, for my plan to work all guns on the planet would need to disappear.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Tortoise » Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:44 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:36 pm
I absolutely agree on the divide by 5 for per capita murder, but then segregating out by race/color, that is certainly an angle you can go down but not what I was getting at.
It's not just an angle. It's a necessary adjustment in order to convert an apples-to-oranges comparison into an apples-to-apples comparison.

In our "equation", there are two important variables that affect gun homicide rates: (1) Gun prevalence in U.K. vs. U.S., and (2) racial composition of the population in U.K. vs. U.S.

In order to make a fair comparison that isolates one of those two variables, we have to control for the other variable by removing it from the equation. That's why I adjusted the numbers to remove black and Hispanic homicides from the U.S. -- so we can compare just the non-Hispanic white homicides between the U.K. and the U.S. Apples-to-apples.

Non-Hispanic white people in the U.S. have access to guns and own quite a few of them, right? And non-Hispanic white people in the U.K. generally don't have access to guns, right? Yet the homicide rate for those two groups is in the same ballpark (843 vs. 671). What that tells us is that gun prevalence apparently has little effect on the non-Hispanic white homicide rate in the U.K. and the U.S.

Sorry that conclusion contradicts the point you were trying to make. I just follow the logic.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Tortoise » Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:51 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:40 pm
why does a country like the UK not have a similar black market for guns? I'm sure they have one for drugs.
Who says the U.K. doesn't have a black market for guns? I'm sure they do.

Keep in mind, black people (the most likely to commit gun violence) only comprise 3% of the population of the U.K. So the U.K.'s black market in guns probably doesn't move the needle much on the U.K.'s total homicide rate.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by shekels » Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:51 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:40 pm


Yes, for my plan to work all guns on the planet would need to disappear.

pfffft
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:58 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:40 pm
Pug, why does a country like the UK not have a similar black market for guns? I'm sure they have one for drugs.

Yes, for my plan to work all guns on the planet would need to disappear.
If that were to happen, women would be much more vulnerable to attack than they are now, at least in places where concealed carry is prevalent.

There's a reason the Colt .45 was called "The Equalizer": it made even the smallest person able to defend himself or herself against an attacker.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by shekels » Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:24 am

When you suggest "Gun Bad" you may also want to discuss how many people were Saved by " Defensive Gun Use".
Try discussing a plan from the standpoint of "Gun Good".
We have over 300 million Guns in the U.S. for a purpose, yet guns don't kill 300 million people in the U.S.

Guns for self defense will not disappear voluntarily.
Hitler/Mao/Stalin have made it clear, and terms you can believe.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:57 am

This was a theoretical discussion. I know we can’t get rid of guns.

My thoughts lately have been along these lines, esp since we keep on talking about BLM and Covid.

— why are our CV numbers so much worse than the rest of the westernized world?
— why are our homicide rates worse than the rest of the westernized world?

My response on the homicide rate would be that if all people had the same educational and job opportunities as we have had, the crime rate drops naturally.

What I sense here is some thinking that Democrats like keeping these areas the way they are because it gives them a built in voting block. On the surface, that seems ridiculous, but on the flip side why people in those areas continue to vote for the same aldermen, etc that seem to overall do little to improve their situation,I cannot understand.

I don’t know how to fix it, and mayors over decades in Chicago haven’t figured it out either, with both hard or crime and soft on crime approaches both having negative consequences.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Lonestar » Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:59 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:40 pm

Yes, for my plan to work all guns on the planet would need to disappear.
After that is accomplished, do we start the elimination of alcohol consumption from the planet? MADD reports a person is injured in a drunk driving crash every 2 minutes, and someone is killed every 51 minutes. How does that compare to firearm injuries/deaths?

Assuming MADD's stats are correct, seems like someone should start thinking about getting some "sensible alcohol safety" laws in effect.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:08 pm

Y'all so touchy about your guns.... ::)

FYI I am a gun owner.

All this is hypothetical.
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Tortoise » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:29 pm

Regarding the idea that the high homicide rate in American black communities may be largely due to the availability of guns, it would be instructive for us to look at Africa (where most of the residents are black).

According to this site, African countries have some of the highest homicide rates in the world. Yet 42% of the homicides in Africa are committed with “sharp objects”, 30% “others”, and only 28% with guns.

Interesting, no?
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:54 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:29 pm
Regarding the idea that the high homicide rate in American black communities may be largely due to the availability of guns, it would be instructive for us to look at Africa (where most of the residents are black).

According to this site, African countries have some of the highest homicide rates in the world. Yet 42% of the homicides in Africa are committed with “sharp objects”, 30% “others”, and only 28% with guns.

Interesting, no?
I'm sure you know that such analysis is RACIST!!! Please report immediately to your anti-racism training center!
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Re: If you actually think black lives matter, watch this ad

Post by Tortoise » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:04 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:54 pm
I'm sure you know that such analysis is RACIST!!! Please report immediately to your anti-racism training center!
I already attended college. I guess it didn't take.
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