Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by dualstow » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:51 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:07 pm
We are a relatively tiny group here. When I asked the question I was not expecting so many to be so close. So far it's a fairly highly proportion of those who have disclosed.
It may be that those of us who live nearby are more motivated to chime in.
—-
Very interesting stats, tech. (Below)
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:57 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 2:30 am
Owning a gun has scant relevance to defending yourself against terrorists, burglars, or flying saucers. It’s about defending yourself against a police state that does not care for your well-being or your liberties.
Of course I agree with your comments about the police state.
But you're wrong about burglars. Most burglaries in some countries are when the victims are home ("hot burglaries") and in other countries (the US, for example) they are mostly when the victims are not home. The reason is that if a lot of homeowners have guns, the burglar is more likely to be shot if the victims are at home:

"In studies involving interviews of felons, one of the reasons the majority of burglars try to avoid occupied homes is the chance of getting shot. (Increasing the odds of arrest is another.) A study of Pennsylvania burglary inmates reported that many burglars refrain from late-night burglaries because it's hard to tell if anyone is home, several explaining "That's the way to get shot." (Rengert G. and Wasilchick J., Suburban Burglary: A Time and a Place for Everything, 1985, Springfield, IL: Charles Thomas.)

"By comparing criminal victimization surveys from Britain and the Netherlands (countries having low levels of gun ownership) with the U.S., Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck determined that if the U.S. were to have similar rates of "hot" burglaries as these other nations, there would be more than 450,000 additional burglaries per year where the victim was threatened or assaulted. (Britain and the Netherlands have a "hot" burglary rate near 45% versus just under 13% for the U.S., and in the U.S. a victim is threatened or attacked 30% of the time during a "hot" burglary.)

"Source: Gary Kleck, Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control, Walter de Gruyter, Inc., New York, 1997. "
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:40 pm

Yesterday when I was not socially distancing from people I was telling them my theory; Antifa's plan this time around is to seed riots by harnessing the mob mentality. Whereas before it would be a big crowd of Antifa rioting (in Portland, for example), it looks like this time they waited until a mob had formed, and then a few of them would go start escalating the situation. But they have mis-read at least a significant portion of people in the crowds. In DC, but a crowd captured and physically carried an Antifa rioter to the police. In Pittsburgh, an Antifa was destroying a cop car and the crowd berated him until he left. Someone called in a tip to the police, and he's now been arrested. My hunch is that the Umbrella Man who smashed the Auto Zone windows then left was an Antifa who was doing the same thing.

I think Antifa majorly overestimated how popular they are with most Americans. It looks like most everyone hates them. This is good news; much like insurgents, groups like Antifa need the support of the populace in order to hide. If most people don't like what you're doing, they'll turn you in and police can roll up the network, if they're so inclined. One wishes the FBI hadn't wasted time and manpower investigating and trying to frame Trump, and focused on this type of thing instead.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:52 pm

Before it gets to the point of military vs citizens, said citizens will have been thoroughly demonized so that it will be much easier for the state’s agents to act in good conscience. An inexact example would be David Koresh and the rest at Waco. Or Jews in Germany, intellectuals in Russia and lots of other countries, etc.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:02 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:19 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:08 pm


When I say that owning a gun is not so much about burglars etc., I don't mean to say it's not an effective deterrent. What I was implying was that the principle of gun ownership and the second amendment is first and foremost about the public's relationship to government. It is, as a principle, so dangerous to have a well armed government and unarmed citizens. The defense of oneself from burglars just wasn't as relevant to the political stance I was talking about in the OP.
If the military turned against the citizens I don't care how well armed those citizens are, they are not going to win. Do any of you know any well-armed citizens who can fight against tanks and planes? The 2nd amendment was written way before either of those was ever imagined.

Vinny
I recommend asking the Afghans and the Soviets how that worked out for them.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by vnatale » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:19 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:52 pm
Before it gets to the point of military vs citizens, said citizens will have been thoroughly demonized so that it will be much easier for the state’s agents to act in good conscience. An inexact example would be David Koresh and the rest at Waco. Or Jews in Germany, intellectuals in Russia and lots of other countries, etc.

What exactly do you hold to be the crimes of "David Koresh and the rest at Waco"?

Vinny
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by moda0306 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:20 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:04 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:52 pm
Before it gets to the point of military vs citizens, said citizens will have been thoroughly demonized so that it will be much easier for the state’s agents to act in good conscience. An inexact example would be David Koresh and the rest at Waco. Or Jews in Germany, intellectuals in Russia and lots of other countries, etc.
That's what the lamestream media is trying to do to Trump supporters.
But it's not going to work.
Especially because he is very popular with the military.
What are you talking about...

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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by vnatale » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:24 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:02 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:19 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:08 pm


When I say that owning a gun is not so much about burglars etc., I don't mean to say it's not an effective deterrent. What I was implying was that the principle of gun ownership and the second amendment is first and foremost about the public's relationship to government. It is, as a principle, so dangerous to have a well armed government and unarmed citizens. The defense of oneself from burglars just wasn't as relevant to the political stance I was talking about in the OP.
If the military turned against the citizens I don't care how well armed those citizens are, they are not going to win. Do any of you know any well-armed citizens who can fight against tanks and planes? The 2nd amendment was written way before either of those was ever imagined.

Vinny
I recommend asking the Afghans and the Soviets how that worked out for them.
I would not compare the typical Afghan to the typical American. We live a much softer life than them as evidenced by 35.5% of us being obese while only 5.5% of them are.

Vinny
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Lonestar » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:27 pm

Mountaineer wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:51 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:44 pm
Am I the only one here that thinks part of the reason the rioting has gotten so out of hand is bc of the Covid lockdown? I agree with Scott Adams that this has set the progress of Black back 10 years. But doesn't take much to make people snap under the conditions we've been under.
I’m with you Pug. My wife and I just had that conversation. And we added hot weather to the mix. Pressure cooker times indeed.
Very good point, but all of us on this forum have had to endure these issues and inconveniences for the last couple of months. Yet how many of us have had the urge to loot, set buildings and/or police cars on fire or create mass confusion to law abiding citizens? Who knows? Maybe more than I think.................
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:28 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:19 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:52 pm
Before it gets to the point of military vs citizens, said citizens will have been thoroughly demonized so that it will be much easier for the state’s agents to act in good conscience. An inexact example would be David Koresh and the rest at Waco. Or Jews in Germany, intellectuals in Russia and lots of other countries, etc.

What exactly do you hold to be the crimes of "David Koresh and the rest at Waco"?

Vinny
Not much of anything, near as I could tell afterwards. But the government told us they were raping minors etc.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by vnatale » Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:39 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:28 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:19 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:52 pm
Before it gets to the point of military vs citizens, said citizens will have been thoroughly demonized so that it will be much easier for the state’s agents to act in good conscience. An inexact example would be David Koresh and the rest at Waco. Or Jews in Germany, intellectuals in Russia and lots of other countries, etc.

What exactly do you hold to be the crimes of "David Koresh and the rest at Waco"?

Vinny
Not much of anything, near as I could tell afterwards. But the government told us they were raping minors etc.
Yes. You have it about right.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by dualstow » Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:03 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:40 pm
I think Antifa majorly overestimated how popular they are with most Americans. It looks like most everyone hates them.
If ever there was a misnomer, it’s the name Antifa. I know, they chose it for a reason, so I can’t call it a true misnomer. But it’s like cockroaches calling themselves the The Anti-Termite Federation. But they’re cockroaches.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Hal » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:06 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:03 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:38 pm
I think this might be somewhat related to this topic.

How close or far do you live from any of the unrest of the last several days?

Closest to me is Boston - 1.75 hours / 90 miles away.

Where I live is quite rural, economically diverse neighborhood, houses with wide ranging values ($100,000 to $500,000?). I'd expect us to be one of the last areas to be affected, if ever.

Vinny
We live about 100 miles from Dallas, surrounded by cows. If the Antifa creeps ever come out here, they won't last long.
Tech, the first thing that came to mind when I read your comment was the song below.
I think I need help ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQMbXvn2RNI
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 12:33 am

Hal wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:06 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:03 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:38 pm
I think this might be somewhat related to this topic.

How close or far do you live from any of the unrest of the last several days?

Closest to me is Boston - 1.75 hours / 90 miles away.

Where I live is quite rural, economically diverse neighborhood, houses with wide ranging values ($100,000 to $500,000?). I'd expect us to be one of the last areas to be affected, if ever.

Vinny
We live about 100 miles from Dallas, surrounded by cows. If the Antifa creeps ever come out here, they won't last long.
Tech, the first thing that came to mind when I read your comment was the song below.
I think I need help ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQMbXvn2RNI
You certainly do!
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Mountaineer » Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:36 am

Hal wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:06 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:03 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:38 pm
I think this might be somewhat related to this topic.

How close or far do you live from any of the unrest of the last several days?

Closest to me is Boston - 1.75 hours / 90 miles away.

Where I live is quite rural, economically diverse neighborhood, houses with wide ranging values ($100,000 to $500,000?). I'd expect us to be one of the last areas to be affected, if ever.

Vinny
We live about 100 miles from Dallas, surrounded by cows. If the Antifa creeps ever come out here, they won't last long.
Tech, the first thing that came to mind when I read your comment was the song below.
I think I need help ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQMbXvn2RNI
That was a hoot and a half! The steak pun was awesome, well done, rare indeed. ;D
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:36 am

Clever Churchgoers Avoid Arrest By Disguising Themselves As Rioters

LOS ANGELES, CA—Religious people in Southern California have found a bold, creative solution for in-person meetings in spite of the continuing lockdown. This past weekend, several area churches attended church services disguised as righteously indignant rioters.

"We already have the righteous indignation thing down," said one church elder. "Now, we've simply added black balaclavas, hoodies, Guy Fawkes masks, and baseball bats! We found that when we do this, we can meet in large groups without much interference from the local authorities. It's been a delightful experience."link
LOL, Babylon Bee bringing its A game.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:57 am

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:24 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:02 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:19 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:08 pm


When I say that owning a gun is not so much about burglars etc., I don't mean to say it's not an effective deterrent. What I was implying was that the principle of gun ownership and the second amendment is first and foremost about the public's relationship to government. It is, as a principle, so dangerous to have a well armed government and unarmed citizens. The defense of oneself from burglars just wasn't as relevant to the political stance I was talking about in the OP.
If the military turned against the citizens I don't care how well armed those citizens are, they are not going to win. Do any of you know any well-armed citizens who can fight against tanks and planes? The 2nd amendment was written way before either of those was ever imagined.

Vinny
I recommend asking the Afghans and the Soviets how that worked out for them.
I would not compare the typical Afghan to the typical American. We live a much softer life than them as evidenced by 35.5% of us being obese while only 5.5% of them are.

Vinny
So the ability to resist tyranny is dependent on having the correct BMI?
That's certainly a novel theory.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:57 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:36 am
Clever Churchgoers Avoid Arrest By Disguising Themselves As Rioters

LOS ANGELES, CA—Religious people in Southern California have found a bold, creative solution for in-person meetings in spite of the continuing lockdown. This past weekend, several area churches attended church services disguised as righteously indignant rioters.

"We already have the righteous indignation thing down," said one church elder. "Now, we've simply added black balaclavas, hoodies, Guy Fawkes masks, and baseball bats! We found that when we do this, we can meet in large groups without much interference from the local authorities. It's been a delightful experience."link
LOL, Babylon Bee bringing its A game.
I'm not sure that wouldn't work...
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Xan » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:23 am

Examining the numbers on police violence:
Police Violence against Black Men Is Rare

Larry Elder's (who happens to be black) take on the Georgia situation (he doesn't seem to have a piece on Floyd yet). This one has a lot of hard numbers, and also explains the delays (not a cover-up).
Black Man Killed by Two White Men -- Cue the 'Race' Hysteria

A Rutgers study finding two things:
a) the race of the policeman has no correlation with the race of suspects killed, and incidentally
b) less than 1% of victims in police killings were unarmed
Study: Killing Of Unarmed Black Men By Cops ‘A Police Problem, Not A White Police Problem’
It seems to go on to assume without evidence that there's racism in "the system", having cleared [almost all] individuals of it, but based on the numbers from the first article the rate of killings is proportional to the rate of violent crime, so the results seem to me to be rational (if tragic) rather than racist.

Raw numbers: number of people shot to death by police by race: 1.5-2x more white people than black:
Number of people shot to death by the police in the United States from 2017 to 2020, by race
Combined with the 1% unarmed number above, we should expect 3-5 shootings of unarmed white people each year, and 2-3 shootings of unarmed black people. We certainly hear about the latter on the news. Not so much the former. Really both are phenomenally low numbers in a country of 300+ million. (Granted this is only "shooting" which wouldn't cover the George Floyd situation.)

More numbers: "hate crime" statistics:
FBI Releases 2018 Hate Crime Statistics
By my computation, this means that black people are 2.6x more likely than white people to commit a hate crime.


Summarizing: 90% of the 600,000 violent nonhomicide black/white crimes that took place in 2018 were a black perp and a white victim. Blacks kill twice as many whites as whites kill blacks. Blacks are 2.6 times more likely to commit a hate crime. So who's being treated unfairly and should be rioting in the streets?


Well it's because they're dealing with the legacy of slavery, you might say. Thomas Sowell (also black) explains how the problems in the black community are not a legacy of slavery and Jim Crow, but of feel-good "help the poor blacks" policies which drove fathers out of households, and of a culture of victimhood:
A Legacy of Liberalism
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:29 am

Thank you for those, Xan. Going to go through them. Except the last one, which I'm already familiar with.
Hal wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:06 pm
Tech, the first thing that came to mind when I read your comment was the song below.
I think I need help ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQMbXvn2RNI
So enjoyable. O0
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Xan » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:35 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:29 am
Thank you for those, Xan. Going to go through them. Except the last one, which I'm already familiar with.
I'd be very interested to hear what you think!
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:38 am

I read the National Review piece just now, by Mr Lemoine. It reminds me of when people were complaining that too many blacks were shown as the criminals in the, I guess you call it a reality show, Cops ("Bad boys, bad boys" ♫ ). I laughed at the notion and thought, they're just filming the people who are committing the crimes! They're not editing out white suspects.

The BJS numbers are hard to argue with. 70,000 is not a small sample size. Did you listen to the beginning of the Eric Adams interview I placed in the podcast thread? All my life, I've been in contact with those kinds of stories so I admit that anecdotal evidence is what I've been going on. I think you and I even had a similar thread here on this forum before, and I probably told the story of my experience as a young, low-level employee at a big firm. Two quick ones, actually:

(1) I walked in together with another employee, black guy, and the guards immediately stopped him, letting me through. "Can I see your badge." He caught up with me, shaking his head, and said, "I hate that."
(2) Another day, a well dressed man came through our floor, quietly stealing laptops and other valuable items. Our supervisor laughed about how none of us saw him because we were hard at work, glued to our screens. Black policeman arrived and asked my black supervisor (an islander, not African-American, to be accurate) about the suspect, whom she did see. Boss: Tall, well-dressed-
Cop: Yeah, what was his complexion?
Boss: (pause) He had clear skin, I think-
Cop: Was he black?
Boss: Yeah.

I don't know what to make of these, exactly. Perhaps I think about it the way you do. But, #1 just has a strong pull that is more powerful than a very young reporter from the National Review. I'm not saying the numbers are wrong or even that his analysis is flawed, but there is still a lingering doubt. I can't help it. Does that mean I'm superficial and unscientific or that I am aware of the reality on the ground? Even if I vote for the former...it's a strong pull, as I said.

The last time we talked about this, I probably said not to derail, but this reminds me of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There are plenty of bad actors among the Israelis, but from what I remember, they have the facts on their side. The Palestinians have the emotions of the world on their side. Perhaps I am guilty of doing exactly what I detest about Palestinian sympathizers who prefer propaganda memes to facts.

I will continue to go through your list and gather more facts. (Why do I feel like I'm Vinny when I type that sentence?)
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:44 pm

Sorry for quoting myself.
dualstow wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:38 am
The last time we talked about this, I probably said not to derail, but this reminds me of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There are plenty of bad actors among the Israelis, but from what I remember, they have the facts on their side. The Palestinians have the emotions of the world on their side. Perhaps I am guilty of doing exactly what I detest about Palestinian sympathizers who prefer propaganda memes to facts.
Someone* on twitter said it more succinctly this afternoon:
Pallywood has gripped the entire world.
*An African-American, btw.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:59 pm

Looks like Heather McDonald is reading the same stats, Xan:
Heather McDonald in the WSJ wrote:In 2019 police officers fatally shot 1,004 people, most of whom were armed or otherwise dangerous. African-Americans were about a quarter of those killed by cops last year (235), a ratio that has remained stable since 2015. That share of black victims is less than what the black crime rate would predict, since police shootings are a function of how often officers encounter armed and violent suspects. In 2018, the latest year for which such data have been published, African-Americans made up 53% of known homicide offenders in the U.S. and commit about 60% of robberies, though they are 13% of the population.
from:
The Myth of Systemic Police Racism
Hold officers accountable who use excessive force. But there’s no evidence of widespread racial bias.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-myth-o ... 1591119883
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by pp4me » Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:13 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:02 pm
Mountaineer wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:51 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:44 pm
Am I the only one here that thinks part of the reason the rioting has gotten so out of hand is bc of the Covid lockdown? I agree with Scott Adams that this has set the progress of Black back 10 years. But doesn't take much to make people snap under the conditions we've been under.
I’m with you Pug. My wife and I just had that conversation. And we added hot weather to the mix. Pressure cooker times indeed.
Yes, in fact Scott Adams explicitly said on his podcast the other day that he thinks a big contributor to the riots and looting has been "pent-up energy" created by the Covid-19 lockdowns.
I tend to agree with this. As a matter of fact when the lockdowns first started and I saw millions of people being put out of work I remember saying that I believed we were going to eventually start seeing rioting in the streets. For once, I guess my crystal ball worked pretty well.

All that was really needed was for someone to light a match to the powder keg and that's what happened. And then you have the media and liberal/leftist politicians standing by ready to fan the flames into a full scale conflagration.
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Re: Another angle on the recent events in America and the world

Post by Dieter » Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:42 pm

pp4me wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:13 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:02 pm
Mountaineer wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:51 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:44 pm
Am I the only one here that thinks part of the reason the rioting has gotten so out of hand is bc of the Covid lockdown? I agree with Scott Adams that this has set the progress of Black back 10 years. But doesn't take much to make people snap under the conditions we've been under.
I’m with you Pug. My wife and I just had that conversation. And we added hot weather to the mix. Pressure cooker times indeed.
Yes, in fact Scott Adams explicitly said on his podcast the other day that he thinks a big contributor to the riots and looting has been "pent-up energy" created by the Covid-19 lockdowns.
I tend to agree with this. As a matter of fact when the lockdowns first started and I saw millions of people being put out of work I remember saying that I believed we were going to eventually start seeing rioting in the streets. For once, I guess my crystal ball worked pretty well.

All that was really needed was for someone to light a match to the powder keg and that's what happened. And then you have the media and liberal/leftist politicians standing by ready to fan the flames into a full scale conflagration.
Really. All the lefties fault. Trump is such an f'ing uniter that he has peaceful protests tear gassed for a BS church photo opp.

Threatening to use military to dominate protesters.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics ... index.html

Blaming it all on left wing agitators and not actually doing any investigation of right wrong agitators.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/t ... r-n1221456

[Edit: who has been calling the press the enemy of the people for how long?]
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