Some 2020 General Election Polls

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Ad Orientem
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue May 19, 2020 4:01 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:33 pm
Didn’t the polls going into the 2016 election suggest that Trump was going to lose, yet he won, suggesting that a lot of poll participants may have been embarrassed or just unwilling to openly admit that they planned to vote for Trump?

If so, what does that imply about these polls for the 2020 election?

Very little. The 2016 polls generally had Clinton up by 1-2% nationally. And they were more or less accurate. She won the popular vote. The polls also had Hillary up by very narrow margins in most of the swing states. They turned out to be wrong and Trump won most of them, by very narrow margins. The takeaway is not that the polls were wrong. Trump's upset victories were almost all within the margin of error for the respective polls. The take away is that in a really close election, turn out matters. Trump's people turned out, and Clinton's by and large did not. The margin of error varies a bit and I do factor in that Trump supporters are not always accurately reflected in some polls, so I build in another 1% when I look at these numbers. But generally any poll that is from a reputable source and that has a margin of 5% or higher, is almost certainly outside the statistical margin of error. I colored Georgia purple because a 1% margin for Biden in a traditionally conservative state is obviously too close to call that state. And barring some kind of Trump meltdown, I fully expect him to take Georgia in November. But the fact that multiple polls are suggesting a reliably Republican state like Georgia is within the margin of error, does not bode well for team Trump. Even more worrisome is that a lot of states that Trump took on 2016, and he will need in November are polling for Biden by numbers that are way outside the margin of error. The election is still 5+ months away and that is a long while. But as I noted in an earlier comment, if the election were today, with these numbers, I'd borrow money from the mob to bet on a Biden victory.

FWIW though I think Biden has benefited from his enforced isolation. Trump has the misfortune of not being able to stay off the stage and keeping his mouth shut. (Not that I think he would in any event.) As POTUS he is our leader, for good or ill, in a time of national emergency. And with his endless flubs, mistakes, and outright lies, being put under the proverbial spotlight, Biden just by not being Trump, is starting to look pretty good. But I do expect the polls to tighten between now and November.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Tue May 19, 2020 7:04 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:33 pm
Didn’t the polls going into the 2016 election suggest that Trump was going to lose, yet he won, suggesting that a lot of poll participants may have been embarrassed or just unwilling to openly admit that they planned to vote for Trump?

If so, what does that imply about these polls for the 2020 election?
I'm sure that 4 years of nonstop demonizing of Trump and anyone who supports him by the lamestream media wouldn't make anyone leery of admitting that they are planning to vote for him. ;)
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 pm

Another piece of evidence supporting Trump's landslide 2020 re-election?

https://t.co/j4in1NpRm9?amp=1

The Commander in Chief’s Following Wanes

I repeat my postulation that he has gained no new voters and has lost many who prior voted him. NOT a good sign when a Republican loses military support? What is the last Republican president to which this has happened?

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue May 19, 2020 9:47 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 pm
Another piece of evidence supporting Trump's landslide 2020 re-election?

https://t.co/j4in1NpRm9?amp=1

The Commander in Chief’s Following Wanes

I repeat my postulation that he has gained no new voters and has lost many who prior voted him. NOT a good sign when a Republican loses military support? What is the last Republican president to which this has happened?

Vinny

Nixon?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Tue May 19, 2020 11:38 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:47 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 pm
Another piece of evidence supporting Trump's landslide 2020 re-election?

https://t.co/j4in1NpRm9?amp=1

The Commander in Chief’s Following Wanes

I repeat my postulation that he has gained no new voters and has lost many who prior voted him. NOT a good sign when a Republican loses military support? What is the last Republican president to which this has happened?

Vinny

Nixon?
On a quick Bing search I could find no evidence of that.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Wed May 20, 2020 7:26 am

vnatale wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 pm
Another piece of evidence supporting Trump's landslide 2020 re-election?

https://t.co/j4in1NpRm9?amp=1

The Commander in Chief’s Following Wanes

I repeat my postulation that he has gained no new voters and has lost many who prior voted him. NOT a good sign when a Republican loses military support? What is the last Republican president to which this has happened?

Vinny
You should have mentioned that this was from The New York Times. They will say or do anything to stop Trump from being re-elected.

If a NYT article said there were 50 states, I would confirm that with a more reliable source.

Even a recent CNN poll shows Trump crushing Biden in the battleground states: https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/sta ... 0289727490.

If CNN says he's way ahead, you can count on his being at least that far ahead. As CNN is also extremely biased against Trump, any good news they report for him is something they just can't figure out how to ignore.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Wed May 20, 2020 7:39 am

technovelist wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 7:04 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:33 pm
Didn’t the polls going into the 2016 election suggest that Trump was going to lose, yet he won, suggesting that a lot of poll participants may have been embarrassed or just unwilling to openly admit that they planned to vote for Trump?

If so, what does that imply about these polls for the 2020 election?
I'm sure that 4 years of nonstop demonizing of Trump and anyone who supports him by the lamestream media wouldn't make anyone leery of admitting that they are planning to vote for him. ;)
That's definitely a thing. I know a number of people quietly planning to vote for Trump (and here in Manhattan, no less) but who would never admit it publicly - because they want to keep their social status and jobs/clients. Many of them are not in the classic Trump demographic, e.g. a retired woman with a state pension and liberal social views, a young gay hairstylist, the local neighborhood dog walker/cat sitter.

I think this figured into the 2016 election and was probably greater than a 1% bump. Ad is right, the results were nearly all within the margin of error cited by the polls. However don't you find it interesting that the errors all went the same way? If it were truly all due to unbiased polling error, half the states (on average) should have gone the other way, and Clinton would have won. That's why she was projected as the winner with such confidence.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 8:21 am

technovelist wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:26 am
vnatale wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 pm
Another piece of evidence supporting Trump's landslide 2020 re-election?

https://t.co/j4in1NpRm9?amp=1

The Commander in Chief’s Following Wanes

I repeat my postulation that he has gained no new voters and has lost many who prior voted him. NOT a good sign when a Republican loses military support? What is the last Republican president to which this has happened?

Vinny
You should have mentioned that this was from The New York Times. They will say or do anything to stop Trump from being re-elected.

If a NYT article said there were 50 states, I would confirm that with a more reliable source.

Even a recent CNN poll shows Trump crushing Biden in the battleground states: https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/sta ... 0289727490.

If CNN says he's way ahead, you can count on his being at least that far ahead. As CNN is also extremely biased against Trump, any good news they report for him is something they just can't figure out how to ignore.
Except it was an Opinion piece in the New York Times. Not an article written by someone on their staff. And, it did cite plenty of survey results from a survey independent from the New York Times.

But you are free to maintain your own set of biases.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 8:23 am

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:39 am


I think this figured into the 2016 election and was probably greater than a 1% bump. Ad is right, the results were nearly all within the margin of error cited by the polls. However don't you find it interesting that the errors all went the same way? If it were truly all due to unbiased polling error, half the states (on average) should have gone the other way, and Clinton would have won. That's why she was projected as the winner with such confidence.
This was an exact sample of one?

And, this one could have been an outlier?

In other words, if we had ten similar elections then, maybe, it would have averaged out to half the states going each way.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 9:43 am

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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Wed May 20, 2020 10:28 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 8:23 am
sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:39 am


I think this figured into the 2016 election and was probably greater than a 1% bump. Ad is right, the results were nearly all within the margin of error cited by the polls. However don't you find it interesting that the errors all went the same way? If it were truly all due to unbiased polling error, half the states (on average) should have gone the other way, and Clinton would have won. That's why she was projected as the winner with such confidence.
This was an exact sample of one?

And, this one could have been an outlier?

In other words, if we had ten similar elections then, maybe, it would have averaged out to half the states going each way.

Vinny
Vinny, last I checked there were 50 states. If you're trying to counter what I said above please make a relevant argument?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 10:48 am

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 10:28 am
vnatale wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 8:23 am
sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:39 am


I think this figured into the 2016 election and was probably greater than a 1% bump. Ad is right, the results were nearly all within the margin of error cited by the polls. However don't you find it interesting that the errors all went the same way? If it were truly all due to unbiased polling error, half the states (on average) should have gone the other way, and Clinton would have won. That's why she was projected as the winner with such confidence.
This was an exact sample of one?

And, this one could have been an outlier?

In other words, if we had ten similar elections then, maybe, it would have averaged out to half the states going each way.

Vinny
Vinny, last I checked there were 50 states. If you're trying to counter what I said above please make a relevant argument?
Yes, 50 states but still a sample of one of what occurred on the average with those 50 states.

Vinny
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