Some 2020 General Election Polls

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vnatale
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Tue May 19, 2020 10:19 am

pugchief wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:49 am
Xan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:26 am
sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.
That's a pretty good guess as to the reason, because it certainly isn't true. One or two die-hard supporters is probably fair to say.
I would agree.

Vinny, why don't you tell us who here you think is a die-hard Trump fan and then let them respond?
Maybe. Have to think about that and whether anything positive comes from that.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Tue May 19, 2020 10:38 am

pugchief wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:00 pm
technovelist wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:37 pm

I predict that Biden won't be the nominee. The most likely way they will fix it is to pick someone else at the convention.
Anyone want to guess who it's going to be? Hint: initials are HRC.
This has been mentioned before on this board. I just don't see how HRC can be the nominee when she didn't participate in the primaries. Same for Cuomo. Please explain how this can be rationalized without, say, Bernie or Warren supporters' heads exploding.
Biden isn't going to get the Bernie baby votes anyway.
Same with Warren's supporters, whoever they may be.
The DNC cheated Bernie last time and they'll cheat Biden, Bernie and Warren this time.
After all, it's not like they care about democracy!
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Tue May 19, 2020 10:49 am

vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Obviously you have been ingesting WAY too much lamestream media garbage.
Here's a very incomplete list of ways that Trump has been attempting to attract new voters:
1. Minority voters, by prison reform (The "first step act"), which has let tens of thousands of minority prisoners out of prison.
2. The same, by enforcing immigration laws. Minorities suffer the most from illegal immigrant labor competition.
3. Small business owners, by pointing out how the Democrat governors with their insane lockdown orders are harming them.
4. The same, by cutting burdensome regulations wholesale.
5. Veterans, by VA choice and VA accountability.
6. Evangelicals and other conservative groups, by appointing originalist judges as he said he would.
7. Families in general, by the tax cuts including new child tax credits.
8. People with serious medical conditions, by the Right to Try Act.
9. Moderate-income people, by eliminating the ACA mandate.
10. Moderate-income people, by bringing numerous manufacturing jobs back to the US via trade negotiations.
11. American Jews, by supporting Israel, including moving the embassy to Jerusalem.

Of course you can claim all of those are meaningless, but you can't claim he hasn't done anything along those lines.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Tue May 19, 2020 10:51 am

sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.

Trump is like your garrulous old uncle who you hate to invite over for Thanksgiving because he drives everyone nuts. Despite the irresponsible utterances, in many ways his instincts are right. When it comes to voting, you have to look past the fluff and pick the party that you think will best represent your interests. IMHO Trump's twitter habit and lack of brain to mouth filter rate as mild annoyances compared to the inestimable damage that parts of the Democratic platform would inflict if they gained power. Open borders, the wealth tax, the Green new deal, the erosion of free speech and other liberties...are you sure you can swallow all that???
If all you imbibe is the lamestream media's swill, the impression you get is that he is:
1. A complete moron who is only a billionaire due to luck, family connections, or maybe really isn't rich at all; and
2. An evil genius who is ruining the country and is clever enough that millions of people can't see it.

How anyone can maintain both of those positions simultaneously is beyond me, but that is what they are selling.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Tue May 19, 2020 10:55 am

That is excellent.
I'm still predicting Trump, and Republicans in general, win in a landslide in November, if nothing else goes seriously wrong before then.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by stuper1 » Tue May 19, 2020 12:09 pm

technovelist wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:55 am
That is excellent.
I'm still predicting Trump, and Republicans in general, win in a landslide in November, if nothing else goes seriously wrong before then.
I think (and hope) Trump will win in November also. Not because I'm a huge Trump supporter, but just because Democrats big government ideas are stupid. And yeah the identity politics is infuriating.

However, your statement above, technovelist, made me laugh. "If nothing else goes seriously wrong"? What else could go more seriously wrong than this COVID-19 nightmare?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Tue May 19, 2020 12:46 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:09 pm
technovelist wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:55 am
That is excellent.
I'm still predicting Trump, and Republicans in general, win in a landslide in November, if nothing else goes seriously wrong before then.
I think (and hope) Trump will win in November also. Not because I'm a huge Trump supporter, but just because Democrats big government ideas are stupid. And yeah the identity politics is infuriating.

However, your statement above, technovelist, made me laugh. "If nothing else goes seriously wrong"? What else could go more seriously wrong than this COVID-19 nightmare?
Trump seems to me to be itching to start up his Cold War with China again... his aggressive actions against China and other countries have been very unpopular in aggregate for his entire presidency, and starting that non-sense back up again could prove to be a very bitter icing to top the COVID-19 cake.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by stuper1 » Tue May 19, 2020 1:23 pm

Unpopular with whom?

They are very popular with me. Why should we be friends with a totalitarian regime that steals all of our best ideas and jobs?

And where did COVID start anyway?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Tue May 19, 2020 1:54 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:23 pm
Unpopular with whom?

They are very popular with me. Why should we be friends with a totalitarian regime that steals all of our best ideas and jobs?

And where did COVID start anyway?
Unpopular with the general public in aggregate, as I stated in the original post. Trump's approval ratings were the worst during the times he was most aggressive with China and other countries. You can also look at how the stock market behaved during those times as to another clue that the general public did not like the policy. Obviously, the minority which is Trump's core like it, but the majority finds Trump's stance on China and trade in general as very unpopular. There is a reason why Trump capitulated and put the trade war on pause last year before the election year started up. He knew that if he kept it up it would cost him the election. So he has tried to put it on the back burner until he inevitably starts it back up after the election if he wins. But he seems like he just can't help himself. My biggest fear with Trump is that if he does get re-elected we will wind up not just in a trade-war with China, but in a real war with them. Globalization and inter-dependence ensures peace. If we sever these ties, there's nothing to stop both sides from devolving into physical war, especially with how aggressive Trump's speech and actions are. He is poking the bear every chance he gets.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Tue May 19, 2020 2:59 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:09 pm
technovelist wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:55 am
That is excellent.
I'm still predicting Trump, and Republicans in general, win in a landslide in November, if nothing else goes seriously wrong before then.
I think (and hope) Trump will win in November also. Not because I'm a huge Trump supporter, but just because Democrats big government ideas are stupid. And yeah the identity politics is infuriating.

However, your statement above, technovelist, made me laugh. "If nothing else goes seriously wrong"? What else could go more seriously wrong than this COVID-19 nightmare?
Who knows? I certainly didn't know this plague was going to happen.
Maybe an asteroid strike?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue May 19, 2020 3:15 pm

General Election: Trump vs. Biden- Harvard-Harris- Biden 53, Trump 47- Biden +6
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden- Civiqs- Biden 48, Trump 47- Biden +1
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden- OH Predictive Insights- Biden 50, Trump 43- Biden +7
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden- Roanoke College- Biden 51, Trump 39- Biden +12
Tennessee: Trump vs. Biden- East Tennessee State- Trump 53-, Biden 36 Trump +17
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Tortoise » Tue May 19, 2020 3:33 pm

Didn’t the polls going into the 2016 election suggest that Trump was going to lose, yet he won, suggesting that a lot of poll participants may have been embarrassed or just unwilling to openly admit that they planned to vote for Trump?

If so, what does that imply about these polls for the 2020 election?
Joe is just Biden his time now.
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