Some 2020 General Election Polls

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Mark Leavy
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Mark Leavy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:18 am

So for grins, here is what I have riding at Predict It. These are all the max $850 dollar bets. I've put them in order sorted by how far I am in the red.

Note that these bets don't reflect any personal preference on my part, they just represent what I thought the most likely outcome would be when I placed them.

Will the 2020 Democratic nominee for president be a woman? YES. Not looking so good there.
Which party will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? I voted YES on Republican, NO on all of the other parties.
Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? I voted YES on Trump, NO on all of the other candidates.
Will the 2020 Democratic nominee for president be 70+ on Election Day? NO. Not looking good here either.
Will Donald Trump complete his first term? YES
Will the 2020 Republican nominee for president be a woman? NO
Will Hillary Clinton run for president in 2020? NO
Who will win the 2020 Republican presidential nomination? YES on Trump, NO on everyone else.
Will Donald Trump be the 2020 Republican nominee for president? YES
Will Michelle Obama run for president in 2020? NO
Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2020? NO
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:44 am

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:56 am
I've got about $10K in predict it, just to make watching the elections more interesting in a few months. I put it in about 6 months ago and haven't touched it since.

I don't know how accurate those maps are, but I hope "not very" as they don't match up with where my money is.
A few responses:

1) I assume the actual $ betting is anonymous. Therefore there would be no fear for Trump voters of being exposed and that, therefore, this could be a true view of how many Trump voters there are? Assuming both Biden and Trump votes are equally disposed to placing actual $$$ bets?

2) Do you put more, less, or equal validity in this where people are actually voting their money compared to all other methods of polling? Would this form of betting be skewed towards any particular demographics which would lean towards voting overall either left or right?

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:46 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:51 am
What predictability reliability would you place in either of these?


https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election


Vinny
I can't find a snapshot of predictit.com on November 6th, 2016, but for 270towin, I give it exactly as much reliability as this prediction suggests:
https://www.270towin.com/2016-election- ... edictions/
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:48 am

technovelist wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:46 am
vnatale wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:51 am
What predictability reliability would you place in either of these?


https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election


Vinny
I can't find a snapshot of predictit.com on November 6th, 2016, but for 270towin, I give it exactly as much reliability as this prediction suggests:
https://www.270towin.com/2016-election- ... edictions/
Obviously missed the mark!!!

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:57 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:44 am
Mark Leavy wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:56 am
I've got about $10K in predict it, just to make watching the elections more interesting in a few months. I put it in about 6 months ago and haven't touched it since.

I don't know how accurate those maps are, but I hope "not very" as they don't match up with where my money is.
A few responses:

1) I assume the actual $ betting is anonymous. Therefore there would be no fear for Trump voters of being exposed and that, therefore, this could be a true view of how many Trump voters there are? Assuming both Biden and Trump votes are equally disposed to placing actual $$$ bets?

2) Do you put more, less, or equal validity in this where people are actually voting their money compared to all other methods of polling? Would this form of betting be skewed towards any particular demographics which would lean towards voting overall either left or right?

Vinny
The betting is pseudonymous, not anonymous. Obviously PredictIt knows who you are because they receive money from you and pay you if you win.

However, I don't think anyone would be too worried about betting on Trump, as that doesn't mean you want him to win, only that you think he will.

As for validity, it may be somewhat more reliable than polls in the sense that people are putting their money where their mouth is. But it's still not very reliable. Hillary was very heavily favored on PredictIt even on election day in 2016, until well after the polls started to close.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:59 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:48 am
technovelist wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:46 am
vnatale wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:51 am
What predictability reliability would you place in either of these?


https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election


Vinny
I can't find a snapshot of predictit.com on November 6th, 2016, but for 270towin, I give it exactly as much reliability as this prediction suggests:
https://www.270towin.com/2016-election- ... edictions/
Obviously missed the mark!!!

Vinny
Yeah, I noticed that.

If the election were held today, Biden might win.

But it's not being held today. There are still three months to go, and every day Biden slips further into senility and the public gets more informed about the "peaceful riots".

If these trends continue as they have been and Trump is still in good health on election day, he should win in an historic landslide.
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:03 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:48 am
technovelist wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:46 am
vnatale wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:51 am
What predictability reliability would you place in either of these?


https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election


Vinny
I can't find a snapshot of predictit.com on November 6th, 2016, but for 270towin, I give it exactly as much reliability as this prediction suggests:
https://www.270towin.com/2016-election- ... edictions/
Obviously missed the mark!!!

Vinny
And here's the final 2016 election prediction from fivethirtyeight.com, another "reputable" predictor:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Mark Leavy » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:11 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:44 am
A few responses:

1) I assume the actual $ betting is anonymous. Therefore there would be no fear for Trump voters of being exposed and that, therefore, this could be a true view of how many Trump voters there are? Assuming both Biden and Trump votes are equally disposed to placing actual $$$ bets?

2) Do you put more, less, or equal validity in this where people are actually voting their money compared to all other methods of polling? Would this form of betting be skewed towards any particular demographics which would lean towards voting overall either left or right?

Vinny
In theory, betting markets should be about as accurate as you can get because the folks with inside knowledge can make a killing - and large dollar bets show up in the odds.

Unfortunately, predict it has so much friction built into it, I think it reflects personal preferences more than informed predictions. Bet sizes are limited, they take a huge percentage of any wins, the spreads are outrageous and they take another piece of your money when you take it out. The net effect is that the market isn't efficient. And since no serious money is at play, the people with inside knowledge can't sway the market any more than the random internet pontificator can. So... more fun than useful. Too bad, as it could be a useful tool.

And yes, the users are anonymous. Or at least as anonymous as anyone else trusting a website with their banking information.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:03 pm

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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Tortoise » Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:18 pm

That thumbnail image of Trump... LOL
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:32 pm

Dan Bongino: Sources Say Joe Biden Is Reaching the Point of No Return, Democrats Will Have a Decision to Make

https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/0 ... n-to-make/
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:04 am

But isn't Hillary running for re-election? She was a shoo-in in 2016!
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