Some 2020 General Election Polls

[technovelist]

What Trump supporters are missing, maybe, is there is an increase in people like me (moderate/left leaning) that supported Trump because we didn't want Hilary, but are much more ok with Biden this time around.

A good portion of this is not logical. I am smart enough to realize that about myself.

You can make a list of policies enacted by Trump on one side and Biden on the other and take the names away, and for all I know, I'd be happier with the policies that Trump is doing.

But it doesn't matter. That's what you might be missing. Since it is wrapped in Trump, it just doesn't matter. I'd rather have almost anybody but Trump. Logical? No. Reality? Yes.

When there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.

You keep coming back to “divisiveness”. There’s no question that Trump can be inartful, abrasive, tactless, antagonistic, etc. and clearly he does himself no favors with a portion of the population. I wish he could be better about that and be far more effective at communicating his policy goals.

But I would argue that much of the divisiveness is coming from his opponents whether they be Democrats, Never Trumpers, Media, etc. The amount of fake news, false narratives and all sorts of other bad behavior is way off the charts. They push the narrative that Trump is divisive and then do the same things (or worse) that they accuse him of. That effectively plays to people’s emotions and ratchets up the discord and division.

So Trump is not blameless. But if division is truly a major issue for you, you really need to take a good hard look at all of the instigators.

That is the cure for TDS. Unfortunately it is almost never accepted by the afflicted because it's just too painful for most people to admit that they have been brainwashed by propaganda with no basis in reality.

[sophie]

Either you slipped a digit or you need to lay off the left handed Luckys. History suggests a "closet Trump" vote of around 1-2% which in a close election (i.e. 2016) and with a strong turnout, coupled with weak turnout for Clinton, was enough to carry a bunch of swing states he wasn't expected to, albeit by his fingernails. Trump won PA, MI and WI by a combined margin of around 107k votes out of 120 million cast nationally. This year the Democrats are on fire and it is team Trump that is lagging in enthusiasm for all but his hardcore supporters. (Maybe 35% of the electorate). The level of denial I have been witnessing among Trump fans, is bordering on delusion.

I'd submit that there is no historical precedent for the Marxist hijacking of the democratic party, or what may be happening in the minds of moderate left-wing voters as a result.

I think we are all fully aware that there is a sizeable voter demographic who will pull the lever for anyone but Trump because they've come to hate him so much. - either because of reasoned opposition to some of the statements he has made in the past, or due to the effects of the intensive media campaign against him. If the Democrats start to look too unappetizing though, a good chunk of this demographic will probably either vote for a throwaway candidate or just stay home. Cortopassi, at this point are you planning to vote for Biden?? And what would make you consider a third option?

There is also a demographic of former Clinton voters who have recently become alarmed at the agenda of the Democratic Party and the results of Democratic policies in big cities. I think it's quite likely this demographic will grow larger over time. Plus, Biden is bound to look worse and worse as the campaign really gets going, due to the physical and mental toll. Especially if he starts sundowning during evening events in the fall, when the days get shorter and we go back to Standard Time just weeks before the election.

It'll be very hard to predict which way the election will go given all these variables. Polls will be mostly useless right up to the election.

[jalanlong]

I have absolutely no evidence to back this up but I have a conspiracy theory that the Dem plan is for Biden to resign some time before his first term is up. Therefore the VP nominee is going to need a lot more scrutiny than usual.

You're way too late on the timescale.
Should the Democrats by some tremendous misfortune be able to steal the election, he won't even make it to inauguration day

Yeah conspiracy theories abound that after the convention Biden will drop out due to some mysterious "health issue" and they will substitute Hillary or Cuomo in his place. They will not sub Sanders,Harris or Warren under the justification that the people already spoke in the primaries and do not want them.

[jalanlong]

What Trump supporters are missing, maybe, is there is an increase in people like me (moderate/left leaning) that supported Trump because we didn't want Hilary, but are much more ok with Biden this time around.

A good portion of this is not logical. I am smart enough to realize that about myself.

You can make a list of policies enacted by Trump on one side and Biden on the other and take the names away, and for all I know, I'd be happier with the policies that Trump is doing.

But it doesn't matter. That's what you might be missing. Since it is wrapped in Trump, it just doesn't matter. I'd rather have almost anybody but Trump. Logical? No. Reality? Yes.

When there are people on the fence going into the voting booth, with Trump and Biden staring back at them from the sheet or screen, I bet you the majority are going to say to themselves I cannot have another 4 years of the divisiveness that just happened and they will vote Biden.

You keep coming back to “divisiveness”. There’s no question that Trump can be inartful, abrasive, tactless, antagonistic, etc. and clearly he does himself no favors with a portion of the population. I wish he could be better about that and be far more effective at communicating his policy goals.

But I would argue that much of the divisiveness is coming from his opponents whether they be Democrats, Never Trumpers, Media, etc. The amount of fake news, false narratives and all sorts of other bad behavior is way off the charts. They push the narrative that Trump is divisive and then do the same things (or worse) that they accuse him of. That effectively plays to people’s emotions and ratchets up the discord and division.

So Trump is not blameless. But if division is truly a major issue for you, you really need to take a good hard look at all of the instigators.

I know that a lot of people right now feel that this is specific to Trump. But to me this is just a continuation and raising of the stakes of the reaction for each Republican president of my lifetime. Don't forget, Bush Jr. was Hitler before Trump was Hitler. Therefore (as I said in another post) I am very curious to see how this goes when the next mainstream Republican is elected. If Trump loses this election, the media and left may be so emboldened to think that they made it happen that any and all future Republicans (even if they are a Mitt Romney milquetoast candidate) may get the Trump treatment going forward.

[Ad Orientem]

Polls from the last 7 days.

General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 45, Trump 38 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden GQR Biden 55, Trump 44 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 44, Biden 45 Biden +1


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error

[Cortopassi]

Polls from the last 7 days.

General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 45, Trump 38 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden GQR Biden 55, Trump 44 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 44, Biden 45 Biden +1


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error

Fake news. When are they going to come out with the real polls?

[vnatale]

100 Days Out: Biden Solidifies Role as Favorite; Democrats On Course To Win Senate Narrowly
by Cliston Brown | Jul 26, 2020 | Election Analysis |

http://clistonbrown.com/2020/07/26/100- ... -narrowly/

[vnatale]

As usual, sorry about the formatting. Best to get to the article, if you can.

Vinny


https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-polli ... ?mod=e2twp


What Polling Can Tell Us 100 Days From the Election
Joe Biden has maintained steady lead over President Trump, but will it hold up?

Biden’s lead over Trump has been

unusually large and stable

Size of lead,

pct. pts.

15

10

5

DEM.

REP.

300

days before the election

200

100

2020

2016

2012

2008

2004

2000

1996

1992

Note: Moving average of polls, based on share of the two-party vote

Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin
By
July 26, 2020 9:00 am ET

Print
Text

The 2020 presidential election marks an important milestone Sunday as the race enters its final 100 days. Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, Joe Biden and President Trump have been mostly derailed from conducting the kind of campaigns voters have come to expect.

How that ultimately will factor into the outcome is unclear, but recent polling has provided encouraging news for the Democratic challenger.

In the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by nearly nine points. That is the largest such gap at this point in the cycle by any candidate since President Clinton’s re-election campaign in 1996, based on historical poll averages compiled by political scientists Robert S. Erikson of Columbia University and Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin. (Their methodology for computing historical daily poll averages differs somewhat from that of Real Clear Politics, but the data provide a reasonable baseline for comparing the current race.)

How poll averages have fluctuated during the period 100–200 days

before the election

80

%

Democrat

Republican

High during

this period: 67%

70

Actual share

of the vote

60

50

40

Low:

40%

30

20

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

Note: Based on share of the two-party vote

Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

But perhaps more remarkable than the spread between the candidates has been the stability of the race thus far. Messrs. Biden and Trump have both polled in an unusually narrow range, with average support for each varying by only a few points in the past six months.
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In addition, the high end of Mr. Trump’s range hasn’t ever matched Mr. Biden’s polling floor to date. That hasn’t happened this close to Election Day since Sen. Bob Dole trailed far behind Mr. Clinton in 1996. Moreover, since 1992, the final national popular vote has nearly always fallen within the range of poll averages during the period between 100 and 200 days out.

Popular-vote winner’s polling at this point in the campaign vs. actual vote share

Actual share

of the vote

Trump’s current

polling support

Vote share in November

was higher than polling

at this point

70

%

65

Vote share

was lower

1964

1972

60

1984

1952

1980

1956

1996

55

1988

2008

2012

1992

1976

2016

2004

50

1968

2000

1960

45

40

Poll average 100 days before the election

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

%

Note: Average of polls; all data based on share of the two-party vote

Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

The correlation between average poll standings at this point in the campaign and the final national popular vote is fairly strong. Nearly all of the outliers were candidates who were registering north of 60% of the two-party vote in poll averages 100 days out. Those eventual winners saw their support dampen a bit by Election Day, but most still won by comfortable margins.

Mr. Trump’s share of the two-party vote currently sits just above 45%, lower than any eventual popular-vote winner since 1988. But it is worth noting that then-Vice President George H.W. Bush overcame the biggest 100-day deficit of an eventual winner—nearly 20 points—thanks to a series of missteps by opponent Michael Dukakis and a hard-hitting ad campaign attacking the Democratic nominee.

Moreover, two popular-vote winners in the last 20 years lost in the Electoral College vote: Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Polling averages and results in the closest states of 2016

2016

100 days out

current

Biden lead

final poll avg.

Michigan

actual

result

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

8

6

4

2

Dem. lead

Rep. lead

2

points

Source: Real Clear Politics; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

That popular vote/electoral vote split might be the most enduring lesson of 2016. While national polls were among the most accurate in estimating the popular vote since 1936—the final Real Clear Politics average gave Mrs. Clinton a 3.2-point advantage, while her actual popular-vote margin was 2.1 points—Mr. Trump emerged victorious thanks to narrow wins in key states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And state polls there missed the mark for various reasons.

However, in at least two of those states—Michigan and Pennsylvania—Mr. Biden’s current lead in poll averages is more than double what Mrs. Clinton’s was at the same point in time. That should be a sign of concern for the Trump campaign, since he won those three states by a combined 77,744 votes—just over one-half of 1% of the trio’s aggregate vote total.

[technovelist]

"Self-censorship is on the rise according to a new Cato Institute survey that reports nearly two-thirds of Americans are afraid to share their political views.

A new CATO Institute/YouGov national survey found 62% of Americans say the political climate today prevents them from saying what they believe. This is up several points from 2017 when 58% of Americans said they were afraid to share their political beliefs."

https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/22/walk ... iews-cato/

[Ad Orientem]

Polls from the last seven days sorted alphabetically and by date (most recent on top)

General Election: Trump vs. Biden DFP Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IPSOS Biden 57, Trump 43 Biden +14
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Harvard-Harris Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10


Alaska: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 44, Trump 50 Trump +6
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 49, Trump 42 Biden +7
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 52, Trump 39 Biden+13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden MC Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Trump 48, Biden 47 Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Biden 50, Trump 38 Biden +12
Massachusetts: Trump vs. Biden MassINC Biden 55, Trump 23 Biden +32
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden TargetPoint Biden 49, Trump 33 Biden +16
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 46, Trump 42 Biden +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 52, Trump 40 Biden +12
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden UNH Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Marist Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Ohio:Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 45, Trump 46 Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 50, Trump 42 Biden +8
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Franklin & Marshall Biden 50, Trump 41 Biden +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden ALG Research Biden 45, Trump 50 Trump +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden VCU Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Washington: Trump vs. Biden KING-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 62, Trump 28 Biden +34
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error +/- 3

[vnatale]

What predictability reliability would you place in either of these?


https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election


Vinny

[Mark Leavy]

I've got about $10K in predict it, just to make watching the elections more interesting in a few months. I put it in about 6 months ago and haven't touched it since.

I don't know how accurate those maps are, but I hope "not very" as they don't match up with where my money is.