Some 2020 General Election Polls

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sophie
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:33 am

technovelist wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:35 am
sophie wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:11 am
In the 1980's, being "soft on crime" was a political death sentence, and crime-fighting was about the first 5 things on every successful politician's platform. Which should also tell you just what people think of having to live with crime, despite the odious media message that not wanting to live in a crime-ridden community makes you a racist. Remember the Willie Horton ads and what that did to Michael Dukakis? 4 months may be too short a time to effect that political shift, but all the same I bet that the Trump campaign will find a way to emulate that example. If they are successful, the Democrats will be crushed in November if they don't change their tune about policing. Which they won't.
You mean like this? https://twitter.com/i/status/1276995624588709888
Hmmm. Too long & complicated, too much right-wing jargon, pitched to the Trump base and not to the average voter. The Willie Horton ad was rock simple and did not tax the brain matter to make the point:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y

p.s. view this now. Only a matter of time before that is banned from Youtube.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:46 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:19 am
This is really blowing my mind. Are there really people out there who don't understand that quality of life is inversely correlated with crime rate? So I'm supposed to be concerned about high crime only if it demonstrably impacts schools in poor neighborhoods, and never mind things like whether I feel safe going out after dark? I used to be perfectly fine with riding the subway home alone from midtown at 1am. Not sure I'd want to do that now, and no one in their right mind would have done that in the 1980s. And when I went to med school in another high-crime Eastern city, everyone carried around an extra wallet with $20 in it for muggers, because that way the mugger wouldn't make off with your driver's license and credit cards, and might not kill you because you didn't have enough money for them. And there was a murder of a student every year. I'm supposed to pretend like this is a non-issue?

Fortunately, most people are smarter than this. Or least they were in the 70s and 80s when "white flight" was a thing. That consisted of non-criminals/taxpayers (i.e. cannon fodder for criminals who were also expected to pay for welfare services for said criminals) leaving the city in droves.

All I can say is that the media sure has done its job very, very well.
It's not as black and white as you put it Sophie, is it? Of course I don't want crime to run rampant. Or defund police. Never said that.

But as years and years of killings have shown in Chicago, with more and more cops, there is some other root cause to this issue. I still believe no child wants to grow up to become a criminal, and a good education would cement that into their brains.

Of course, that needs to happen in a safe area to have any chance. One with a working stable family, ideally.

Going down the rabbit hole here of things that have been brewing and tried to be fixed for decades.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Tortoise » Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:50 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:46 am
It's not as black and white as you put it Sophie, is it? Of course I don't want crime to run rampant. Or defund police. Never said that.

But as years and years of killings have shown in Chicago, with more and more cops, there is some other root cause to this issue. I still believe no child wants to grow up to become a criminal, and a good education would cement that into their brains.

Of course, that needs to happen in a safe area to have any chance. One with a working stable family, ideally.
You correctly identified the root cause: A dearth of stable two-parent families in the ghetto.

The reason why so many black teenage boys join gangs is because most of them are raised by single mothers and lack a father figure. The gang members provide those boys with the strong male influence that they instinctually crave but are missing at home. The gangs teach the boys how to become men. Not good, law-abiding men with character... but men nonetheless.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:01 pm

I agree completely.

It seems that whenever that problem is raised, even by black men and women, you get crucified. It is like a third rail that is untouchable by anyone.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:57 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:01 pm
I agree completely.

It seems that whenever that problem is raised, even by black men and women, you get crucified. It is like a third rail that is untouchable by anyone.
That should tell you something...
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:07 am

In a way I don't care what the root cause is - especially if the black community itself doesn't care. It can't be fixed by more government largesse or indeed by any outside force, if that's where you're going with this. The government's job is to protect me from people who do, in fact, want to grow up to be criminals. That is properly the function of policing. It is not the government's job to enforce morality.

The police are an effect of the problem not the cause. The whole point of my posts are that NYC's experience has indeed proven that more police and stricter law enforcement is what lowers crime and improves quality of life for non-criminal residents who (unike the criminals) contribute positively to the city's character. Before this year, it was reasonable to question whether the large drop in crime that coincided with Giuliani's law enforcement measures could indeed be attributed to that (as correlation does not have to imply causality). It was even proposed that availability of abortion to low-income communities was the cause of the crime drop (read the book "Freakonomics). However, recent events have provided very strong evidence that Giuliani's step-up of law enforcement (and not abortion) was indeed the secret sauce: reversing those policies has almost immediately led to a significant increase in crime. Taken together, I think it's pretty much beyond question that effective policing is what controls crime. If you have another method that is PROVEN to be effective, I'm all ears. And, understand that "wishing" and "proving" are two different things.

Sure, it would be great if the black community were to decide to fix their social problems. It would certainly benefit city budgets too. But that's like wishing that hurricanes will never happen, assuming that your wish can become reality if you wish hard enough, and therefore you don't need to build dikes/levees.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:23 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:07 am
In a way I don't care what the root cause is - especially if the black community itself doesn't care. It can't be fixed by more government largesse or indeed by any outside force, if that's where you're going with this. The government's job is to protect me from people who do, in fact, want to grow up to be criminals. That is properly the function of policing. It is not the government's job to enforce morality.

The police are an effect of the problem not the cause. The whole point of my posts are that NYC's experience has indeed proven that more police and stricter law enforcement is what lowers crime and improves quality of life for non-criminal residents who (unike the criminals) contribute positively to the city's character. Before this year, it was reasonable to question whether the large drop in crime that coincided with Giuliani's law enforcement measures could indeed be attributed to that (as correlation does not have to imply causality). It was even proposed that availability of abortion to low-income communities was the cause of the crime drop (read the book "Freakonomics). However, recent events have provided very strong evidence that Giuliani's step-up of law enforcement (and not abortion) was indeed the secret sauce: reversing those policies has almost immediately led to a significant increase in crime. Taken together, I think it's pretty much beyond question that effective policing is what controls crime. If you have another method that is PROVEN to be effective, I'm all ears. And, understand that "wishing" and "proving" are two different things.

Sure, it would be great if the black community were to decide to fix their social problems. It would certainly benefit city budgets too. But that's like wishing that hurricanes will never happen, assuming that your wish can become reality if you wish hard enough, and therefore you don't need to build dikes/levees.
How do the demographics during all these time periods fit in with the rise / decline in crime?

Isn't crime correlated to a certain male age range group (guessing 15 - 30 years old)? Therefore, all things being equal, more crime when there are more in this age group and a decline in crime when there are less in the age group?

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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:31 am

What I just wrote regarding Giuliani and crime reduction was not unique to me but was something I'd read years ago. A quick Bing search finds this:


How much credit does Giuliani deserve for fighting crime?
https://www.politifact.com/article/2007 ... ing-crime/

"Demographics have an awful lot to do with this, and these are very, very large social forces," said Jeffrey Fagan, co-director of the Center for Crime, Community and Law at the Columbia Law School in New York. "It's hard to imagine policing, no matter how smart and effective it is, giving the kind of leverage ... to move a macro force like crime."

Debunking the Myth of Rudy Giuliani "Crime fighter"
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/1 ... me-fighter

Four years after Giuliani’s tenure as mayor (1994-2001), the DOJ summarized crime trends from 1994-2005: "Since 1994, violent crime rates have declined[everywhere], reaching the lowest level ever in 2005."



Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:36 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:23 am
How do the demographics during all these time periods fit in with the rise / decline in crime?

Isn't crime correlated to a certain male age range group (guessing 15 - 30 years old)? Therefore, all things being equal, more crime when there are more in this age group and a decline in crime when there are less in the age group?

Vinny
You're welcome to try to prove that the reproductive rate among blacks suddenly increased 18-26 years ago, after remaining stable for more than 2 decades. Best of luck with that.

Alternatively, you are welcome to move to Bed-Stuy, continue to advocate for reduced policing, and then let us know how it works out.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:25 am

Well people, apparently black activitists disagree with you about the role of policing in crime control. I just came across a remarkably honest Washington Post article that must have somehow got past their BLM censors, and literally I burst out laughing when I read this little gem:
Gerald Griggs, vice president of the Atlanta NAACP and a lawyer, blamed police for much of the recent crime, suggesting they have not been doing enough.

"A lot of the onus for the violence falls right at the feet of law enforcement," he said. "There are certain elements in our community that don't take a break when the police take a break. You're sworn to protect and defend, but when there are a few rogue [police] being held accountable you decide to shirk your responsibility? That speaks volumes about why people were protesting to begin with."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:52 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:25 am
Well people, apparently black activitists disagree with you about the role of policing in crime control. I just came across a remarkably honest Washington Post article that must have somehow got past their BLM censors, and literally I burst out laughing when I read this little gem:
Gerald Griggs, vice president of the Atlanta NAACP and a lawyer, blamed police for much of the recent crime, suggesting they have not been doing enough.

"A lot of the onus for the violence falls right at the feet of law enforcement," he said. "There are certain elements in our community that don't take a break when the police take a break. You're sworn to protect and defend, but when there are a few rogue [police] being held accountable you decide to shirk your responsibility? That speaks volumes about why people were protesting to begin with."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html
Whoever let that article through will probably be canceled.
Even though it blames the police for not doing their jobs after being vilified by the politicians who tell them what to do (and not to do), which is absurd and very unfair, I'm sure it isn't nearly rough enough on the police for BLM.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:06 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:36 am
You're welcome to try to prove that the reproductive rate among blacks suddenly increased 18-26 years ago, after remaining stable for more than 2 decades. Best of luck with that.
technovelist wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:52 am
Whoever let that article through will probably be canceled.
To combine these two points, Peter Frost recently posted about a peer reviewed study that was removed from the literature without cause. It was from a researcher who had previously done work on cognitive differences between populations. He discusses some implications.
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