Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post Reply
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:11 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:00 am
Ok, I do not dispute what Giuliani did.

What I don't know, and what is more important (to me), is, did it materially improve the lives of the people in those areas?
JEEEEEEZZZZUUUUUSSSS Cortopassi, are you kidding me with this??????

Why do you think I live in NYC now? I can 100% guarantee you that I would not if Giuliani had not been elected as mayor, and crime continued as it was in the 1980s.

Spend 5 minutes online and look for evidence of the contrast between Then and Now (or Recently anyway). Look up crime statistics, "white flight" etc. Here's a great example for you: Bryant Park. It used to be a drug den that no sane person would enter unless they were suicidal. Now it's a beautiful midtown oasis with a skating rink, outdoor popup stores and awesome food concessions.

When it comes right down to it, I strongly suspect that for most people - the sane ones anyway, i.e. excluding de Blasio or the crazy Council members - virtue signaling by paying lip service to Black Lives Matter will take a back seat when they realize we are going back to the crime-ridden days of the 1980s, and they connect the dots and realize that reduced policing is how that happens.

In the 1980's, being "soft on crime" was a political death sentence, and crime-fighting was about the first 5 things on every successful politician's platform. Which should also tell you just what people think of having to live with crime, despite the odious media message that not wanting to live in a crime-ridden community makes you a racist. Remember the Willie Horton ads and what that did to Michael Dukakis? 4 months may be too short a time to effect that political shift, but all the same I bet that the Trump campaign will find a way to emulate that example. If they are successful, the Democrats will be crushed in November if they don't change their tune about policing. Which they won't.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:23 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:11 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:00 am
Ok, I do not dispute what Giuliani did.

What I don't know, and what is more important (to me), is, did it materially improve the lives of the people in those areas?
JEEEEEEZZZZUUUUUSSSS Cortopassi, are you kidding me with this??????

Why do you think I live in NYC now? I can 100% guarantee you that I would not if Giuliani had not been elected as mayor, and crime continued as it was in the 1980s.

Spend 5 minutes online and look for evidence of the contrast between Then and Now (or Recently anyway). Look up crime statistics, "white flight" etc. Here's a great example for you: Bryant Park. It used to be a drug den that no sane person would enter unless they were suicidal. Now it's a beautiful midtown oasis with a skating rink, outdoor popup stores and awesome food concessions.

When it comes right down to it, I strongly suspect that for most people - the sane ones anyway, i.e. excluding de Blasio or the crazy Council members - virtue signaling by paying lip service to Black Lives Matter will take a back seat when they realize we are going back to the crime-ridden days of the 1980s, and they connect the dots and realize that reduced policing is how that happens.

In the 1980's, being "soft on crime" was a political death sentence, and crime-fighting was about the first 5 things on every successful politician's platform. Which should also tell you just what people think of having to live with crime, despite the odious media message that not wanting to live in a crime-ridden community makes you a racist. Remember the Willie Horton ads and what that did to Michael Dukakis? 4 months may be too short a time to effect that political shift, but all the same I bet that the Trump campaign will find a way to emulate that example. If they are successful, the Democrats will be crushed in November if they don't change their tune about policing. Which they won't.
Did not mean to step on toes. I am showing you that I know zero about NY. Just like many people likely consider Chicago some murder capital of the world, which the vast majority of the city is not.

But I want to focus on one thing -- schools. All the improvements Giuliani made, did that materially improve the outcomes of kids in poor neighborhoods? If I am a NYC resident, am I still hesitant, or outright scared, to send my kids to public schools in certain areas?

That is the problem, in my mind, that is the root of most everything.
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:19 am

This is really blowing my mind. Are there really people out there who don't understand that quality of life is inversely correlated with crime rate? So I'm supposed to be concerned about high crime only if it demonstrably impacts schools in poor neighborhoods, and never mind things like whether I feel safe going out after dark? I used to be perfectly fine with riding the subway home alone from midtown at 1am. Not sure I'd want to do that now, and no one in their right mind would have done that in the 1980s. And when I went to med school in another high-crime Eastern city, everyone carried around an extra wallet with $20 in it for muggers, because that way the mugger wouldn't make off with your driver's license and credit cards, and might not kill you because you didn't have enough money for them. And there was a murder of a student every year. I'm supposed to pretend like this is a non-issue?

Fortunately, most people are smarter than this. Or least they were in the 70s and 80s when "white flight" was a thing. That consisted of non-criminals/taxpayers (i.e. cannon fodder for criminals who were also expected to pay for welfare services for said criminals) leaving the city in droves.

All I can say is that the media sure has done its job very, very well.
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:33 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:35 am
sophie wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:11 am
In the 1980's, being "soft on crime" was a political death sentence, and crime-fighting was about the first 5 things on every successful politician's platform. Which should also tell you just what people think of having to live with crime, despite the odious media message that not wanting to live in a crime-ridden community makes you a racist. Remember the Willie Horton ads and what that did to Michael Dukakis? 4 months may be too short a time to effect that political shift, but all the same I bet that the Trump campaign will find a way to emulate that example. If they are successful, the Democrats will be crushed in November if they don't change their tune about policing. Which they won't.
You mean like this? https://twitter.com/i/status/1276995624588709888
Hmmm. Too long & complicated, too much right-wing jargon, pitched to the Trump base and not to the average voter. The Willie Horton ad was rock simple and did not tax the brain matter to make the point:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y

p.s. view this now. Only a matter of time before that is banned from Youtube.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:46 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:19 am
This is really blowing my mind. Are there really people out there who don't understand that quality of life is inversely correlated with crime rate? So I'm supposed to be concerned about high crime only if it demonstrably impacts schools in poor neighborhoods, and never mind things like whether I feel safe going out after dark? I used to be perfectly fine with riding the subway home alone from midtown at 1am. Not sure I'd want to do that now, and no one in their right mind would have done that in the 1980s. And when I went to med school in another high-crime Eastern city, everyone carried around an extra wallet with $20 in it for muggers, because that way the mugger wouldn't make off with your driver's license and credit cards, and might not kill you because you didn't have enough money for them. And there was a murder of a student every year. I'm supposed to pretend like this is a non-issue?

Fortunately, most people are smarter than this. Or least they were in the 70s and 80s when "white flight" was a thing. That consisted of non-criminals/taxpayers (i.e. cannon fodder for criminals who were also expected to pay for welfare services for said criminals) leaving the city in droves.

All I can say is that the media sure has done its job very, very well.
It's not as black and white as you put it Sophie, is it? Of course I don't want crime to run rampant. Or defund police. Never said that.

But as years and years of killings have shown in Chicago, with more and more cops, there is some other root cause to this issue. I still believe no child wants to grow up to become a criminal, and a good education would cement that into their brains.

Of course, that needs to happen in a safe area to have any chance. One with a working stable family, ideally.

Going down the rabbit hole here of things that have been brewing and tried to be fixed for decades.
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Tortoise » Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:50 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:46 am
It's not as black and white as you put it Sophie, is it? Of course I don't want crime to run rampant. Or defund police. Never said that.

But as years and years of killings have shown in Chicago, with more and more cops, there is some other root cause to this issue. I still believe no child wants to grow up to become a criminal, and a good education would cement that into their brains.

Of course, that needs to happen in a safe area to have any chance. One with a working stable family, ideally.
You correctly identified the root cause: A dearth of stable two-parent families in the ghetto.

The reason why so many black teenage boys join gangs is because most of them are raised by single mothers and lack a father figure. The gang members provide those boys with the strong male influence that they instinctually crave but are missing at home. The gangs teach the boys how to become men. Not good, law-abiding men with character... but men nonetheless.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:01 pm

I agree completely.

It seems that whenever that problem is raised, even by black men and women, you get crucified. It is like a third rail that is untouchable by anyone.
flyingpylon
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1102
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:04 am

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by flyingpylon » Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:57 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:01 pm
I agree completely.

It seems that whenever that problem is raised, even by black men and women, you get crucified. It is like a third rail that is untouchable by anyone.
That should tell you something...
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:07 am

In a way I don't care what the root cause is - especially if the black community itself doesn't care. It can't be fixed by more government largesse or indeed by any outside force, if that's where you're going with this. The government's job is to protect me from people who do, in fact, want to grow up to be criminals. That is properly the function of policing. It is not the government's job to enforce morality.

The police are an effect of the problem not the cause. The whole point of my posts are that NYC's experience has indeed proven that more police and stricter law enforcement is what lowers crime and improves quality of life for non-criminal residents who (unike the criminals) contribute positively to the city's character. Before this year, it was reasonable to question whether the large drop in crime that coincided with Giuliani's law enforcement measures could indeed be attributed to that (as correlation does not have to imply causality). It was even proposed that availability of abortion to low-income communities was the cause of the crime drop (read the book "Freakonomics). However, recent events have provided very strong evidence that Giuliani's step-up of law enforcement (and not abortion) was indeed the secret sauce: reversing those policies has almost immediately led to a significant increase in crime. Taken together, I think it's pretty much beyond question that effective policing is what controls crime. If you have another method that is PROVEN to be effective, I'm all ears. And, understand that "wishing" and "proving" are two different things.

Sure, it would be great if the black community were to decide to fix their social problems. It would certainly benefit city budgets too. But that's like wishing that hurricanes will never happen, assuming that your wish can become reality if you wish hard enough, and therefore you don't need to build dikes/levees.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:23 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:07 am
In a way I don't care what the root cause is - especially if the black community itself doesn't care. It can't be fixed by more government largesse or indeed by any outside force, if that's where you're going with this. The government's job is to protect me from people who do, in fact, want to grow up to be criminals. That is properly the function of policing. It is not the government's job to enforce morality.

The police are an effect of the problem not the cause. The whole point of my posts are that NYC's experience has indeed proven that more police and stricter law enforcement is what lowers crime and improves quality of life for non-criminal residents who (unike the criminals) contribute positively to the city's character. Before this year, it was reasonable to question whether the large drop in crime that coincided with Giuliani's law enforcement measures could indeed be attributed to that (as correlation does not have to imply causality). It was even proposed that availability of abortion to low-income communities was the cause of the crime drop (read the book "Freakonomics). However, recent events have provided very strong evidence that Giuliani's step-up of law enforcement (and not abortion) was indeed the secret sauce: reversing those policies has almost immediately led to a significant increase in crime. Taken together, I think it's pretty much beyond question that effective policing is what controls crime. If you have another method that is PROVEN to be effective, I'm all ears. And, understand that "wishing" and "proving" are two different things.

Sure, it would be great if the black community were to decide to fix their social problems. It would certainly benefit city budgets too. But that's like wishing that hurricanes will never happen, assuming that your wish can become reality if you wish hard enough, and therefore you don't need to build dikes/levees.
How do the demographics during all these time periods fit in with the rise / decline in crime?

Isn't crime correlated to a certain male age range group (guessing 15 - 30 years old)? Therefore, all things being equal, more crime when there are more in this age group and a decline in crime when there are less in the age group?

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:31 am

What I just wrote regarding Giuliani and crime reduction was not unique to me but was something I'd read years ago. A quick Bing search finds this:


How much credit does Giuliani deserve for fighting crime?
https://www.politifact.com/article/2007 ... ing-crime/

"Demographics have an awful lot to do with this, and these are very, very large social forces," said Jeffrey Fagan, co-director of the Center for Crime, Community and Law at the Columbia Law School in New York. "It's hard to imagine policing, no matter how smart and effective it is, giving the kind of leverage ... to move a macro force like crime."

Debunking the Myth of Rudy Giuliani "Crime fighter"
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/1 ... me-fighter

Four years after Giuliani’s tenure as mayor (1994-2001), the DOJ summarized crime trends from 1994-2005: "Since 1994, violent crime rates have declined[everywhere], reaching the lowest level ever in 2005."



Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:36 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:23 am
How do the demographics during all these time periods fit in with the rise / decline in crime?

Isn't crime correlated to a certain male age range group (guessing 15 - 30 years old)? Therefore, all things being equal, more crime when there are more in this age group and a decline in crime when there are less in the age group?

Vinny
You're welcome to try to prove that the reproductive rate among blacks suddenly increased 18-26 years ago, after remaining stable for more than 2 decades. Best of luck with that.

Alternatively, you are welcome to move to Bed-Stuy, continue to advocate for reduced policing, and then let us know how it works out.
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:25 am

Well people, apparently black activitists disagree with you about the role of policing in crime control. I just came across a remarkably honest Washington Post article that must have somehow got past their BLM censors, and literally I burst out laughing when I read this little gem:
Gerald Griggs, vice president of the Atlanta NAACP and a lawyer, blamed police for much of the recent crime, suggesting they have not been doing enough.

"A lot of the onus for the violence falls right at the feet of law enforcement," he said. "There are certain elements in our community that don't take a break when the police take a break. You're sworn to protect and defend, but when there are a few rogue [police] being held accountable you decide to shirk your responsibility? That speaks volumes about why people were protesting to begin with."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:52 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:25 am
Well people, apparently black activitists disagree with you about the role of policing in crime control. I just came across a remarkably honest Washington Post article that must have somehow got past their BLM censors, and literally I burst out laughing when I read this little gem:
Gerald Griggs, vice president of the Atlanta NAACP and a lawyer, blamed police for much of the recent crime, suggesting they have not been doing enough.

"A lot of the onus for the violence falls right at the feet of law enforcement," he said. "There are certain elements in our community that don't take a break when the police take a break. You're sworn to protect and defend, but when there are a few rogue [police] being held accountable you decide to shirk your responsibility? That speaks volumes about why people were protesting to begin with."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html
Whoever let that article through will probably be canceled.
Even though it blames the police for not doing their jobs after being vilified by the politicians who tell them what to do (and not to do), which is absurd and very unfair, I'm sure it isn't nearly rough enough on the police for BLM.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:06 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:36 am
You're welcome to try to prove that the reproductive rate among blacks suddenly increased 18-26 years ago, after remaining stable for more than 2 decades. Best of luck with that.
Libertarian666 wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:52 am
Whoever let that article through will probably be canceled.
To combine these two points, Peter Frost recently posted about a peer reviewed study that was removed from the literature without cause. It was from a researcher who had previously done work on cognitive differences between populations. He discusses some implications.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:22 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:06 am
sophie wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:36 am
You're welcome to try to prove that the reproductive rate among blacks suddenly increased 18-26 years ago, after remaining stable for more than 2 decades. Best of luck with that.
Libertarian666 wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:52 am
Whoever let that article through will probably be canceled.
To combine these two points, Peter Frost recently posted about a peer reviewed study that was removed from the literature without cause. It was from a researcher who had previously done work on cognitive differences between populations. He discusses some implications.
There cannot be any cognitive differences between populations, because that would be RAYCISS!!
Therefore, the explanation of the fact that Ashkenazis have 20% of the Nobel Prizes (a larger percentage if you count only the real Prizes, not the fake ones in economics and "peace"), despite being much less than 1% of the world population, is "Jewish privilege" or something like that.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:26 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:06 am
sophie wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:36 am
You're welcome to try to prove that the reproductive rate among blacks suddenly increased 18-26 years ago, after remaining stable for more than 2 decades. Best of luck with that.
Libertarian666 wrote:
Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:52 am
Whoever let that article through will probably be canceled.
To combine these two points, Peter Frost recently posted about a peer reviewed study that was removed from the literature without cause. It was from a researcher who had previously done work on cognitive differences between populations. He discusses some implications.
Oh, there was cause all right: Marxism.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:03 pm

General Election: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Biden 51, Trump 40 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 47, Trump 44 Biden +3
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Gravis Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6
Missouri: Trump vs. Biden SLU/YouGov Trump 50, Biden 43 Trump +7
Montana: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 51, Biden 42 Trump +9
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 46 Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 42 Biden +8
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
Texas: Trump vs. Biden OAN/Gravis Trump 46, Biden 44 Trump +2
Texas: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Trump 46, Biden 45 Trump +1
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Dallas Morning News Trump 43, Biden 48 Biden +5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6



# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error

(Edit: I added the NBC/WSJ poll that was released about an hour after I posted the above.)
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Fri Jul 17, 2020 12:51 pm

Capture.JPG
Capture.JPG (185.38 KiB) Viewed 5748 times
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:08 pm

Capture.JPG
Capture.JPG (33.21 KiB) Viewed 5720 times
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:32 pm

Capture.JPG
Capture.JPG (35.58 KiB) Viewed 5692 times
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:56 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Sun Jul 19, 2020 1:32 pm
Capture.JPG
Now add 10% to the numbers for Trump in each category to account for the silent Trump voters and you might be closer to the actual numbers.
Of course this means an electoral landslide for Trump.

Either you slipped a digit or you need to lay off the left handed Luckys. History suggests a "closet Trump" vote of around 1-2% which in a close election (i.e. 2016) and with a strong turnout, coupled with weak turnout for Clinton, was enough to carry a bunch of swing states he wasn't expected to, albeit by his fingernails. Trump won PA, MI and WI by a combined margin of around 107k votes out of 120 million cast nationally. This year the Democrats are on fire and it is team Trump that is lagging in enthusiasm for all but his hardcore supporters. (Maybe 35% of the electorate). The level of denial I have been witnessing among Trump fans, is bordering on delusion.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:55 am

Joe Biden is wrong on a wide range of issues that I care about. But he is not a fascist socialist. And the lawlessness that most Americans are concerned with is centered at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:32 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:55 am
Joe Biden is wrong on a wide range of issues that I care about. But he is not a fascist socialist. And the lawlessness that most Americans are concerned with is centered at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
regarding your first sentence: Joe Biden USED to be a moderate Democrat. He's no longer capable of that. Once elected, he would simply be a route by which radical Democrats like AOC will gain power. Hoping more people come to realize that.

regarding your second sentence: Many things Trump does are in bad taste and some of his executive orders can be (and have been) challenged, but lawless? Please provide details as I'm not aware of anything Trump has done that rises to that description. On the contrary, I'd say the Democrats are doing a pretty darned good job at being lawless.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:35 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:00 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:55 am
Joe Biden is wrong on a wide range of issues that I care about. But he is not a fascist socialist. And the lawlessness that most Americans are concerned with is centered at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
He may not be personally, but he has embraced much of the far left platform to appease that faction of the party.

I can't even respond to your second sentence without being impolite other than to say the riots are a bigger concern to most people who do not have TDS.

Polling data would suggest then that TDS now afflicts a substantial majority of Americans.
Post Reply