Some 2020 General Election Polls

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
technovelist
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5928
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:20 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:32 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:26 pm
General Election: NYT/Sienna- Biden 50, Trump 36 Biden +14
General Election: CNBC- Biden 47, Trump 38 Biden +9
General Election: Economist/Yougov- Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: DFP- Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9


FL: NYT/Sienna- Biden 47, Trump 41 Biden +6
WI: NYT/Sienna- Biden 49, Trump 38 Biden +11
WI: Marquette- Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
MI: NYT/Sienna- Biden 47, Trump 36 Biden +11
PA: NYT/Sienna- Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
NC: NYT/Sienna- Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
NC: PPP- Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
NC: IPSOS- Biden 43, Trump 34 Biden +9
AZ: NYT/Sienna- Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
OH: NYT/Sienna- Biden 50, Trump 36 Biden +14
OH: Quinnipiac- Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1
OH: Morning Consult- Biden 47, Trump 39 Biden +8
TX: PPP- Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump+ 2


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error

Note: This is some of the most lopsided polling data I can remember seeing in a presidential election since 1984. Unless something changes drastically, Trump is heading for the worst electoral shellacking in a generation.
Polls are basically meaningless until after the conventions.
"According to number-crunching from Christopher Wlezien and Robert Erikson, political scientists at the University of Texas and Columbia University, pre-election polls make for poor predictors until the close of summer in an election year, by which point both parties have held their nominating conventions"
(https://www.economist.com/democracy-in- ... -forecasts)
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2805
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:48 pm

As soon as I wake up each morning I put on C-Span's Washington Journal.

As I was listening to this one I thought that I'd missed the beginning. But when I went here I saw that I'd actually heard it all. However, because it was so interesting and because I wanted to pass on some of it here, I listened to it two more times while working today and took some notes.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?473372-3/ ... s-pandemic

Here are my notes. I really liked the 40% / 60% explanation of how the brain takes in information. Explains A LOT!

Vinny

Scott Rasmussen - a pollster and political analyst.

ScottRasmussen.com

1) 64% believe worst of pandemic still to come -- most pessimistic assessment yet measured.

2) Expect a roller coaster - will get higher and lower. There are no feelings of unity regarding this.

3) People who are actually working in the public are more optimistic than those working from home.

4) Republicans saying too much money has already been spent. That is a definite political minus.

5) If there were a choice between reimbursing business for their losses versus assisting state governments it's fairly clear that there is more support for the former.

6) If the election was held today the president would lose as well as the Senate being lost. But we are currently in a time of extreme volatility. We have two major events that started six months prior to the election. The virus and its financial consequences plus civil rights. This is why Biden has such a lead. If improved news comes out then there can be a shift. If protests were to become more violent with then more of an emphasis on law and order then that would produce more shift.

7) Biden's lead has come from former Trump voters not becoming Biden voters but becoming undecided. Maybe 5% or 6% of voters.

8) The range of outcome could be a Trump victory or a historic loss for an incumbent like Hoover experienced in 1932.

9) The founder of Pixar stated that there is scientific evidence that what our brain sees is only 40% of what we see with the balance what we expect to see. Therefore that is going to cause both Democrats and Republicans to interpret the same information differently. Same as fans in the sports bar seeing the same thing differently from the fans of the other team.

10) The people sitting at home are the professional, educated class and are more in line with the media and their views.

11) The role of the media is to be distrusted in the modern era. People treat reporters with the same credibility of a Wikipedia entry. It's a sad state of affairs.

12) The cable stations emphasize different stories. There are stories 100% factual yet they don't get recognized as creditable.

13) I can go to any audience and use actual government information to say spending has gone up, down, or stay the same. The same can now be said for the covid statistics. We will have to wait a year to see what the real story is with the deaths from the covid virus. We are going to be arguing about this. Today I can make either case.

14) At the end of World War II the government had a huge deficit related to GDP. After a generation it came down. The same will have to happen with the huge deficit generated by the virus. It will have to be dealt with over a long period of time with some programs being cut but it will not be solved over the short-term via increased taxation.
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3216
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:08 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:48 pm
...
14) At the end of World War II the government had a huge deficit related to GDP. After a generation it came down. The same will have to happen with the huge deficit generated by the virus. It will have to be dealt with over a long period of time with some programs being cut but it will not be solved over the short-term via increased taxation.

The debt from WWII was largely inflated away over the following several decades. It's called "financial repression." And I think we are in the early stages of something similar.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2805
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:24 pm

Capture.JPG
Capture.JPG (40.42 KiB) Viewed 98 times
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
User avatar
technovelist
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5928
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:20 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:26 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:24 pm
Capture.JPG
So as soon as people realize that Biden is demented, they'll all vote for Trump.
Great news!
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2805
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:42 pm

technovelist wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:26 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:24 pm
Capture.JPG
So as soon as people realize that Biden is demented, they'll all vote for Trump.
Great news!
I listened to him speaking yesterday. It seemed like he was somewhere where he was answering voter questions.

However, I was shocked (in retrospective I probably should not have been) when he gave an answer which was just about the same answer as he'd just done prior 20 minutes earlier and it seemed like he had no idea he was doing so.

Trump's no young person and I think the age difference is only three, four years between them? But Biden seems old, old, old, while Trump does not.

By the way a few days ago I listened to Trump's Oklahoma really 2+ times in a row. While I continue to agree with him on little and continue to find him unqualified for the job, I DO find him to be EXTREMELY entertaining. Prior to him becoming a candidate he'd only been a name for me as I'd never seen his TV show.

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
User avatar
technovelist
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5928
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:20 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:17 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:42 pm
technovelist wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:26 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:24 pm
Capture.JPG
So as soon as people realize that Biden is demented, they'll all vote for Trump.
Great news!
I listened to him speaking yesterday. It seemed like he was somewhere where he was answering voter questions.

However, I was shocked (in retrospective I probably should not have been) when he gave an answer which was just about the same answer as he'd just done prior 20 minutes earlier and it seemed like he had no idea he was doing so.

Trump's no young person and I think the age difference is only three, four years between them? But Biden seems old, old, old, while Trump does not.

By the way a few days ago I listened to Trump's Oklahoma really 2+ times in a row. While I continue to agree with him on little and continue to find him unqualified for the job, I DO find him to be EXTREMELY entertaining. Prior to him becoming a candidate he'd only been a name for me as I'd never seen his TV show.

Vinny
Ok, you don't agree with Trump on much and don't think he is qualified for the job.
Do you think Biden is qualified? I agree he seems a decade older than Trump.
And it's almost universally agreed that Biden wouldn't actually be making decisions if he were President.
So do you agree with the people who would actually be in charge if Biden won the election?
That would be Black Lives Matter, AOC, and the other lunatic fringe of the Democrat party.
Because that's the alternative.
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3611
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:38 am

It depends on who Biden's VP pick is. That person will be the de-facto President from day 1, and probably the actual one within a couple of months. If someone moderate or centrist is chosen, Biden's obvious dementia might not be that much of an issue and the ticket may well win. If they go with a "diversity"/extreme left pick I think that will initially play well but in the end will sink their chances. BTW I really feel bad for Biden...getting demented is unfortunately a fact of life for a large proportion of the over 80 population, and it's so sad to see. My mother is going through the same thing. She doesn't understand what's happening and she's frustrated because she doesn't like what everyone is trying to tell her.

I think the response of Biden voters who are voting against Trump and then get disillusioned with Democratic ticket won't be to vote for Trump, it will be to stay home. Or maybe vote for a third party e.g. the Green candidate. That is a factor that current polls cannot account for. Just 10% of the population doing that in a few key swing states would be enough to hand the election to Trump.
User avatar
technovelist
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5928
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:20 pm

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:48 pm

sophie wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:38 am
It depends on who Biden's VP pick is. That person will be the de-facto President from day 1, and probably the actual one within a couple of months. If someone moderate or centrist is chosen, Biden's obvious dementia might not be that much of an issue and the ticket may well win. If they go with a "diversity"/extreme left pick I think that will initially play well but in the end will sink their chances. BTW I really feel bad for Biden...getting demented is unfortunately a fact of life for a large proportion of the over 80 population, and it's so sad to see. My mother is going through the same thing. She doesn't understand what's happening and she's frustrated because she doesn't like what everyone is trying to tell her.

I think the response of Biden voters who are voting against Trump and then get disillusioned with Democratic ticket won't be to vote for Trump, it will be to stay home. Or maybe vote for a third party e.g. the Green candidate. That is a factor that current polls cannot account for. Just 10% of the population doing that in a few key swing states would be enough to hand the election to Trump.
There is no possibility that anyone even remotely moderate and reasonably sane will be picked as Biden's VP. It will either be someone to the left of Bernie Sanders, or just maybe a complete corporate shill like Kamala Harris. Either way, whoever it is will turn off the independent voters.

As for Biden himself, I think senior protective services should be called on whoever is making him stay in the race. It's elder abuse, and I'm not even joking.
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
Post Reply