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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:54 am
by Ad Orientem
General election: Optimus- Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9
General election: Rasmussen- Biden 48, Trump 36 Biden +12
General election: Morning Consult- Biden 48, Trump 39 Biden +9


AZ: Civiqs- Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
AR: Hendrix- Biden 45, Trump 47 Trump +2
GA: PPP- Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
NM: PPP- Biden 53, Trump 39 Biden +14
MI: TIPP- Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
MI: EPIC- Biden 55, Trump 39 Biden +16
FL: TIPP- Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
IA: Selzer- Biden 43, Trump 44 Trump +1

# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:08 pm
by Ad Orientem
CNBC releases new poll: Biden leads in six key swing states... Good news for team Trump?

General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 50, Trump 41 Biden +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 45, Trump 44 Biden +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 44 Biden +4


Yes... Trump is still trailing. But almost all of these numbers show the gap closing when compared to the polls I posted yesterday which were released over the course of the previous week. There are a couple of possibilities here. One is that CNBC is an outlier. We will find out soon enough as new polls come out and either confirm or refute the CNBC numbers. The second possibility is that Trump may be regaining some support as a result of the social chaos and upheaval in the country over the last couple of weeks. Or maybe a little of both. Again, we will see if the trend is confirmed as newer polls come out.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:22 pm
by Ad Orientem
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 50, Trump 38 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8


KY: Trump vs. Biden Civiqs Biden 37, Trump 57 Trump +20
UT: Trump vs Biden Y2Analytics Biden 40, Trump 48 Trump +8

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:15 am
by Ad Orientem
General Election: Harvard Biden 56, Trump 44 Biden +12

AL: FM3 Biden 39, Trump 53 Trump +14
MN: Gravis Biden 58, Trump 42 Biden +16

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:26 pm
by Ad Orientem
General Election: NYT/Sienna- Biden 50, Trump 36 Biden +14
General Election: CNBC- Biden 47, Trump 38 Biden +9
General Election: Economist/Yougov- Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: DFP- Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9


FL: NYT/Sienna- Biden 47, Trump 41 Biden +6
WI: NYT/Sienna- Biden 49, Trump 38 Biden +11
WI: Marquette- Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
MI: NYT/Sienna- Biden 47, Trump 36 Biden +11
PA: NYT/Sienna- Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
NC: NYT/Sienna- Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
NC: PPP- Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
NC: IPSOS- Biden 43, Trump 34 Biden +9
AZ: NYT/Sienna- Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
OH: NYT/Sienna- Biden 50, Trump 36 Biden +14
OH: Quinnipiac- Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1
OH: Morning Consult- Biden 47, Trump 39 Biden +8
TX: PPP- Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump+ 2


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error

Note: This is some of the most lopsided polling data I can remember seeing in a presidential election since 1984. Unless something changes drastically, Trump is heading for the worst electoral shellacking in a generation.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:48 pm
by vnatale
As soon as I wake up each morning I put on C-Span's Washington Journal.

As I was listening to this one I thought that I'd missed the beginning. But when I went here I saw that I'd actually heard it all. However, because it was so interesting and because I wanted to pass on some of it here, I listened to it two more times while working today and took some notes.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?473372-3/ ... s-pandemic

Here are my notes. I really liked the 40% / 60% explanation of how the brain takes in information. Explains A LOT!

Vinny

Scott Rasmussen - a pollster and political analyst.

ScottRasmussen.com

1) 64% believe worst of pandemic still to come -- most pessimistic assessment yet measured.

2) Expect a roller coaster - will get higher and lower. There are no feelings of unity regarding this.

3) People who are actually working in the public are more optimistic than those working from home.

4) Republicans saying too much money has already been spent. That is a definite political minus.

5) If there were a choice between reimbursing business for their losses versus assisting state governments it's fairly clear that there is more support for the former.

6) If the election was held today the president would lose as well as the Senate being lost. But we are currently in a time of extreme volatility. We have two major events that started six months prior to the election. The virus and its financial consequences plus civil rights. This is why Biden has such a lead. If improved news comes out then there can be a shift. If protests were to become more violent with then more of an emphasis on law and order then that would produce more shift.

7) Biden's lead has come from former Trump voters not becoming Biden voters but becoming undecided. Maybe 5% or 6% of voters.

8) The range of outcome could be a Trump victory or a historic loss for an incumbent like Hoover experienced in 1932.

9) The founder of Pixar stated that there is scientific evidence that what our brain sees is only 40% of what we see with the balance what we expect to see. Therefore that is going to cause both Democrats and Republicans to interpret the same information differently. Same as fans in the sports bar seeing the same thing differently from the fans of the other team.

10) The people sitting at home are the professional, educated class and are more in line with the media and their views.

11) The role of the media is to be distrusted in the modern era. People treat reporters with the same credibility of a Wikipedia entry. It's a sad state of affairs.

12) The cable stations emphasize different stories. There are stories 100% factual yet they don't get recognized as creditable.

13) I can go to any audience and use actual government information to say spending has gone up, down, or stay the same. The same can now be said for the covid statistics. We will have to wait a year to see what the real story is with the deaths from the covid virus. We are going to be arguing about this. Today I can make either case.

14) At the end of World War II the government had a huge deficit related to GDP. After a generation it came down. The same will have to happen with the huge deficit generated by the virus. It will have to be dealt with over a long period of time with some programs being cut but it will not be solved over the short-term via increased taxation.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:08 pm
by Ad Orientem
vnatale wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:48 pm
...
14) At the end of World War II the government had a huge deficit related to GDP. After a generation it came down. The same will have to happen with the huge deficit generated by the virus. It will have to be dealt with over a long period of time with some programs being cut but it will not be solved over the short-term via increased taxation.

The debt from WWII was largely inflated away over the following several decades. It's called "financial repression." And I think we are in the early stages of something similar.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:24 pm
by vnatale
Capture.JPG
Capture.JPG (40.42 KiB) Viewed 5040 times

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:42 pm
by vnatale
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:26 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:24 pm
Capture.JPG
So as soon as people realize that Biden is demented, they'll all vote for Trump.
Great news!
I listened to him speaking yesterday. It seemed like he was somewhere where he was answering voter questions.

However, I was shocked (in retrospective I probably should not have been) when he gave an answer which was just about the same answer as he'd just done prior 20 minutes earlier and it seemed like he had no idea he was doing so.

Trump's no young person and I think the age difference is only three, four years between them? But Biden seems old, old, old, while Trump does not.

By the way a few days ago I listened to Trump's Oklahoma really 2+ times in a row. While I continue to agree with him on little and continue to find him unqualified for the job, I DO find him to be EXTREMELY entertaining. Prior to him becoming a candidate he'd only been a name for me as I'd never seen his TV show.

Vinny

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:38 am
by sophie
It depends on who Biden's VP pick is. That person will be the de-facto President from day 1, and probably the actual one within a couple of months. If someone moderate or centrist is chosen, Biden's obvious dementia might not be that much of an issue and the ticket may well win. If they go with a "diversity"/extreme left pick I think that will initially play well but in the end will sink their chances. BTW I really feel bad for Biden...getting demented is unfortunately a fact of life for a large proportion of the over 80 population, and it's so sad to see. My mother is going through the same thing. She doesn't understand what's happening and she's frustrated because she doesn't like what everyone is trying to tell her.

I think the response of Biden voters who are voting against Trump and then get disillusioned with Democratic ticket won't be to vote for Trump, it will be to stay home. Or maybe vote for a third party e.g. the Green candidate. That is a factor that current polls cannot account for. Just 10% of the population doing that in a few key swing states would be enough to hand the election to Trump.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:33 am
by vnatale
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-instit ... us_070220/

More Voters Rule Out Trump Than Biden
Thursday, July 2, 2020
Mixed results on who has presidential ‘stamina’

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:06 am
by vnatale

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:10 am
by Libertarian666
vnatale wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:06 am
https://engagious.com/swingvoters/

Swing Voter Project
"Participants in the groups are asked a number of discrete questions using the Perception Analyzer dials. The unique ability of the dials to collect individualized responses in a focus group setting and display results in real-time helps eliminate “group think,” "

The only way to eliminate group think is to turn off lamestream media.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:08 pm
by vnatale
What the Lincoln Project Ad Makers Get About Voters (and What Dems Don’t)

The Republicans of the Lincoln Project might have an advantage over Trump’s left-leaning opponents.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... ats-349184

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:50 pm
by vnatale
New July 2020 Electoral College Ratings

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/nati ... ge-ratings

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:07 am
by Cortopassi
MangoMan wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:42 am
Trump has 91% chance of being reelected according to model that has correctly for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
Sure....

This is by no means a normal year, nor a normal primary season, nor a normal anything. You can find anyone with any opinion out there on anything.

In 2016 my vote for Trump was more about "anyone but Clinton"

In 2020 my vote will be for "anyone but Trump"

There were a lot of middle of the road people like me who gave Trump the win because of a strong dislike for Clinton (obviously in IL, it did not matter). Now after 4 years, my bet is those people swing the other way.

--------------------

"For the 1/100th time, the reason we show so many Cases, compared to other countries that haven’t done nearly as well as we have, is that our TESTING is much bigger and better. We have tested 40,000,000 people. If we did 20,000,000 instead, Cases would be half, etc. NOT REPORTED!"

If the death curve below, which seems to have turned up, continues in that direction, God help us all. Gonna have to buy high quality cameras for my kids online education, dammit.

Image

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:51 am
by flyingpylon
Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:14 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:07 am
MangoMan wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:42 am
Trump has 91% chance of being reelected according to model that has correctly for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
Sure....

This is by no means a normal year, nor a normal primary season, nor a normal anything. You can find anyone with any opinion out there on anything.

In 2016 my vote for Trump was more about "anyone but Clinton"

In 2020 my vote will be for "anyone but Trump"

There were a lot of middle of the road people like me who gave Trump the win because of a strong dislike for Clinton (obviously in IL, it did not matter). Now after 4 years, my bet is those people swing the other way.
So you are going for looting, rioting, and tearing down statues, because that's what you'll get with Democrats in charge.
My opinion is that not many people will pick that option.
They won’t pick that option if they realize that’s what it is. But I’m not sure how many people realize it yet. Plenty of people are still just turned off by “mean tweets”.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:27 pm
by pp4me
flyingpylon wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:51 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:14 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:07 am
MangoMan wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:42 am
Trump has 91% chance of being reelected according to model that has correctly for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
Sure....

This is by no means a normal year, nor a normal primary season, nor a normal anything. You can find anyone with any opinion out there on anything.

In 2016 my vote for Trump was more about "anyone but Clinton"

In 2020 my vote will be for "anyone but Trump"

There were a lot of middle of the road people like me who gave Trump the win because of a strong dislike for Clinton (obviously in IL, it did not matter). Now after 4 years, my bet is those people swing the other way.
So you are going for looting, rioting, and tearing down statues, because that's what you'll get with Democrats in charge.
My opinion is that not many people will pick that option.
They won’t pick that option if they realize that’s what it is. But I’m not sure how many people realize it yet. Plenty of people are still just turned off by “mean tweets”.
Call me a pessimist but I don't see the violence ending just because Trump gets re-elected. My expectation is that the mob will become even more enraged and double down in their efforts because they didn't get their way. In other words TDS at Defcon 1. I think they actually want Trump to respond with force and if he gets re-elected, he may very well have to give them what they are asking for. So I can actually see voters choosing the path of appeasement in electing Biden.

What really needs to happen, IMO, is for local voters to vote to take back their cities, not look for Donald Trump to save the day.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:59 pm
by Cortopassi
pp4me wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:27 pm

What really needs to happen, IMO, is for local voters to vote to take back their cities, not look for Donald Trump to save the day.
Pretty sure cities (at least larger ones) aren't looking for Trump to save the day. :o

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:42 pm
by pp4me
Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:05 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:59 pm
pp4me wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:27 pm

What really needs to happen, IMO, is for local voters to vote to take back their cities, not look for Donald Trump to save the day.
Pretty sure cities (at least larger ones) aren't looking for Trump to save the day. :o
The Democrat mayors and governors have been giving terrorists free rein in their cities.
The residents are starting to realize exactly whose fault that is, and it's not Trump's fault.
BLM needs to be exposed for what it really is - a marxist organization intent on overthrowing America. You have to admit they are very clever in the way they are going about it. "Black Lives Matter" - who can disagree with that? You've even got Republicans saying they support their goals and even more astonishing most of corporate America now. Disagree and you're a racist.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:16 pm
by Cortopassi
Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:05 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:59 pm
pp4me wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:27 pm

What really needs to happen, IMO, is for local voters to vote to take back their cities, not look for Donald Trump to save the day.
Pretty sure cities (at least larger ones) aren't looking for Trump to save the day. :o
The Democrat mayors and governors have been giving terrorists free rein in their cities.
The residents are starting to realize exactly whose fault that is, and it's not Trump's fault.
But now he's going to be the "law and order" president after almost 4 years in office? Convenient that this coincides with so much other stuff that is causing him pain? Another 4 years of Trump is going to get these cities exactly what? More tweets about how many murders are happening in Chicago with zero in terms of plans to help?

Somehow, I don't think if you elected a republican mayor and republican city council members in Chicago that they'd have some magical formula that is going to fix things.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:25 pm
by Mark Leavy
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:16 pm
Somehow, I don't think if you elected a republican mayor and republican city council members in Chicago that they'd have some magical formula that is going to fix things.
It shouldn't matter what party the mayor is from, but we do have some formulas. Not exactly magic, and a little flawed, but they work quite fast and are better than the current situation.

Mayoralty of Rudy Giuliani
In Giuliani's first term as mayor the New York City Police Department, under Giuliani appointee Commissioner Bill Bratton, adopted an aggressive enforcement and deterrence strategy based on James Q. Wilson's Broken Windows research. This involved crackdowns on relatively minor offenses such as graffiti, turnstile jumping, and aggressive "squeegeemen," on the principle that this would send a message that order would be maintained and that the city would be "cleaned up."

At a forum three months into his term as mayor, Giuliani mentioned that freedom does not mean that "people can do anything they want, be anything they can be. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do and how you do it".[1]

Giuliani also directed the New York City Police Department to aggressively pursue enterprises linked to organized crime, such as the Fulton Fish Market and the Javits Center on the West Side (Gambino crime family). By breaking mob control of solid waste removal, the city was able to save businesses over $600 million.

One of Bratton's first initiatives was the institution in 1994 of CompStat, a comparative statistical approach to mapping crime geographically in order to identify emerging criminal patterns and chart officer performance by quantifying apprehensions. The implementation of CompStat gave precinct commanders more power, based on the assumption that local authorities best knew their neighborhoods and thus could best determine what tactics to use to reduce crime. In turn, the gathering of statistics on specific personnel aimed to increase accountability of both commanders and officers. Critics of the system assert that it instead creates an incentive to underreport or otherwise manipulate crime data.[2] The CompStat initiative won the 1996 Innovations in Government Award from the Kennedy School of Government.[3]

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:00 am
by Cortopassi
Ok, I do not dispute what Giuliani did.

What I don't know, and what is more important (to me), is, did it materially improve the lives of the people in those areas? Certainly if there was less crime, their lives improved to some level. But did it result in a population that was simply afraid of cops, or one that now felt freer, and jobs came into those areas and schools got better, etc?

I have to believe, if I don't want to get into a depression, that almost everyone wants to succeed at something. Nobody wants to become a gang member, a thief, a drug pusher, etc. if they have opportunities?

So did the stricter enforcing result in a better outlook, or simply result in lower crime with no other benefits? Sure, being safe is important, but if it didn't help also with more opportunities, they are still stuck in that rut.

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:10 am
by vnatale
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:00 am
Ok, I do not dispute what Giuliani did.

What I don't know, and what is more important (to me), is, did it materially improve the lives of the people in those areas? Certainly if there was less crime, their lives improved to some level. But did it result in a population that was simply afraid of cops, or one that now felt freer, and jobs came into those areas and schools got better, etc?

I have to believe, if I don't want to get into a depression, that almost everyone wants to succeed at something. Nobody wants to become a gang member, a thief, a drug pusher, etc. if they have opportunities?

So did the stricter enforcing result in a better outlook, or simply result in lower crime with no other benefits? Sure, being safe is important, but if it didn't help also with more opportunities, they are still stuck in that rut.
It did totally transform Time Square.

Vinny

Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:11 am
by sophie
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:00 am
Ok, I do not dispute what Giuliani did.

What I don't know, and what is more important (to me), is, did it materially improve the lives of the people in those areas?
JEEEEEEZZZZUUUUUSSSS Cortopassi, are you kidding me with this??????

Why do you think I live in NYC now? I can 100% guarantee you that I would not if Giuliani had not been elected as mayor, and crime continued as it was in the 1980s.

Spend 5 minutes online and look for evidence of the contrast between Then and Now (or Recently anyway). Look up crime statistics, "white flight" etc. Here's a great example for you: Bryant Park. It used to be a drug den that no sane person would enter unless they were suicidal. Now it's a beautiful midtown oasis with a skating rink, outdoor popup stores and awesome food concessions.

When it comes right down to it, I strongly suspect that for most people - the sane ones anyway, i.e. excluding de Blasio or the crazy Council members - virtue signaling by paying lip service to Black Lives Matter will take a back seat when they realize we are going back to the crime-ridden days of the 1980s, and they connect the dots and realize that reduced policing is how that happens.

In the 1980's, being "soft on crime" was a political death sentence, and crime-fighting was about the first 5 things on every successful politician's platform. Which should also tell you just what people think of having to live with crime, despite the odious media message that not wanting to live in a crime-ridden community makes you a racist. Remember the Willie Horton ads and what that did to Michael Dukakis? 4 months may be too short a time to effect that political shift, but all the same I bet that the Trump campaign will find a way to emulate that example. If they are successful, the Democrats will be crushed in November if they don't change their tune about policing. Which they won't.