Some 2020 General Election Polls

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sophie
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Wed May 20, 2020 10:51 am

Nope. The polls in question were state-specific.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 11:14 am

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 10:51 am
Nope. The polls in question were state-specific.
I know that.

Forgive me if I'm wrong but am I correct that you basically wrote / said: Why did all the specific state polls end up going all one way rather than half of them going one way and the other half going the other way?

Is that what you said? If so, good question.

What I'm saying is that what you described occurred in ONE election. And, that if one examined how these specific state polls resulted in TEN similar election then maybe it would have averaged out to half and half rather the totally skewed results (as you pointed out) for the 2016 election. And, then, perhaps, 2016 would have been viewed as an outlier which does occur among overall average results.

Vinny
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sophie
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Wed May 20, 2020 5:05 pm

Did you ever take a probability class Vinnie?

Flip a fair coin 10 times and tell me what the chances are of all of them coming up heads.

But hey, it's just one session of coin flipping so that doesn't count right?

Unless you are saying that an event with a probability on the order of 0.01% (i.e 1/1024, which is the answer to the above question) is a completely expected result that in no way should indicate that anything is wrong?

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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by stuper1 » Wed May 20, 2020 5:35 pm

I think he's forgotten what 2016 looked like. All we read was 12 months of articles telling us that Trump wouldn't win, right up to 5 minutes before the returns came in.

It won't be any different this time. I'm not saying for sure that Trump will win. But for sure, the media will tell us that he can't win because that's what they want us to believe. It's going to be a long 6 months especially if every single article gets linked from this forum.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Tortoise » Wed May 20, 2020 5:50 pm

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 5:05 pm
[Vinny, ] Whenever you'd like to join us here on planet Earth, we'll be here waiting.
Image

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/vinnys ... 1105803559
Joe is just Biden his time now.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 7:20 pm

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 5:05 pm
Did you ever take a probability class Vinnie?

Flip a fair coin 10 times and tell me what the chances are of all of them coming up heads.

But hey, it's just one session of coin flipping so that doesn't count right?

Unless you are saying that an event with a probability on the order of 0.01% (i.e 1/1024, which is the answer to the above question) is a completely expected result that in no way should indicate that anything is wrong?

Whenever you'd like to join us here on planet Earth, we'll be here waiting.
I look at it as being similar to a baseball player's season with a lot of randomness. If a player hits .300 over 500 at bats that does not mean that for each of the ten slices of 50 at bats that compose that 500 at bat season he hits .300 on the nose for all those slices. Without doing any research on this, I'm guessing there could have been a 50 at bat slice where he hit .450 and another one where he hit .150. He was the same intrinsic .300 hitter for all the slices but those outlier slices are just the way the probabilities played out for those disparate outcome slices.

You seem to posit that there was no randomness to what happened in 2016. That what you seem to believe would only have occurred with a .01% probability if totally random, instead, happened for a reason. What is this reason? And, you'd hold that the same results would have resulted if the election had instead taken place on either of the five days leading up to the election or any of the five days after the actual election date?

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Wed May 20, 2020 7:36 pm

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 5:05 pm
Did you ever take a probability class Vinnie?

Flip a fair coin 10 times and tell me what the chances are of all of them coming up heads.

But hey, it's just one session of coin flipping so that doesn't count right?

Unless you are saying that an event with a probability on the order of 0.01% (i.e 1/1024, which is the answer to the above question) is a completely expected result that in no way should indicate that anything is wrong?

Whenever you'd like to join us here on planet Earth, we'll be here waiting.
I wouldn't hold my breath.
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Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Thu May 21, 2020 9:48 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:20 pm
sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 5:05 pm
Did you ever take a probability class Vinnie?

Flip a fair coin 10 times and tell me what the chances are of all of them coming up heads.

But hey, it's just one session of coin flipping so that doesn't count right?

Unless you are saying that an event with a probability on the order of 0.01% (i.e 1/1024, which is the answer to the above question) is a completely expected result that in no way should indicate that anything is wrong?

Whenever you'd like to join us here on planet Earth, we'll be here waiting.
I look at it as being similar to a baseball player's season with a lot of randomness. If a player hits .300 over 500 at bats that does not mean that for each of the ten slices of 50 at bats that compose that 500 at bat season he hits .300 on the nose for all those slices. Without doing any research on this, I'm guessing there could have been a 50 at bat slice where he hit .450 and another one where he hit .150. He was the same intrinsic .300 hitter for all the slices but those outlier slices are just the way the probabilities played out for those disparate outcome slices.

You seem to posit that there was no randomness to what happened in 2016. That what you seem to believe would only have occurred with a .01% probability if totally random, instead, happened for a reason. What is this reason? And, you'd hold that the same results would have resulted if the election had instead taken place on either of the five days leading up to the election or any of the five days after the actual election date?

Vinny
Vinny, you will believe what you want to believe, although I'm not quite clear what exactly you are trying to promote here. One last shot. My answers to your questions in the last paragraph above are: No, yes, exactly, and irrelevant.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu May 21, 2020 4:25 pm

General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 42, Trump 41 Biden +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden DFP Biden 48, Trump 40 Biden +8
Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 55, Biden 39 Trump +16
Michigan: Trump vs Biden PPP (D) Trump 45, Biden 51 Biden +6
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat May 23, 2020 11:39 pm

Fox News Poll: Biden more trusted on coronavirus, Trump on economy


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... on-economy
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by technovelist » Sun May 24, 2020 10:43 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:39 pm
Fox News Poll: Biden more trusted on coronavirus, Trump on economy


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... on-economy
Fox polls are no more reliable than any other lamestream media polls.
However, assuming that this poll is correct, all that means is that most people still don't realize how demented and corrupt Joe Biden is.
But they won't remain ignorant of those facts forever. The Trump campaign has enormous amounts of money for advertising, and they will make sure anyone not living in a cave will know about that.
If nothing else changes, the election will be a blowout for the Republicans.
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun May 24, 2020 8:46 pm

General Election: Mason Dixon Polling- Biden 49%, Trump 44%- Biden +5
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