Some 2020 General Election Polls

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Xan
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Mon May 18, 2020 5:34 pm

I think it may just be really hard to oust a sitting President running for another term. I couldn't believe it when Obama won in 2012, especially since Scott Brown had just been elected in Massachusetts of all places running on an anti-Obamacare platform.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon May 18, 2020 6:35 pm

Xan wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 5:34 pm
I think it may just be really hard to oust a sitting President running for another term. I couldn't believe it when Obama won in 2012, especially since Scott Brown had just been elected in Massachusetts of all places running on an anti-Obamacare platform.
The reason Obama was re-elected is that the RNC cheated Ron Paul out of competing for the nomination. This resulted in a lot of libertarian-leaning Republicans deciding to stay home.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm

It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Mon May 18, 2020 9:23 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:00 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:37 pm

I predict that Biden won't be the nominee. The most likely way they will fix it is to pick someone else at the convention.
Anyone want to guess who it's going to be? Hint: initials are HRC.
This has been mentioned before on this board. I just don't see how HRC can be the nominee when she didn't participate in the primaries. Same for Cuomo. Please explain how this can be rationalized without, say, Bernie or Warren supporters' heads exploding.
I thought if nobody had a majority, the delegates could meet and nominate anyone they wanted to. Seems almost more fair to pick somebody who didn't run rather than somebody who ran and didn't come in first.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon May 18, 2020 9:24 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
I started laughing when I read that as my response was "I think you are missing a digit" as I'd describe it as 10 to 20, not one or two! But that's just my impression, thinking there are at least 90 to 95% Trump voters here. I'm sure, however, that there are polls here regarding this, one not that long ago. I don't remember that many participants in that last one.

Vinny

Vinny

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Mon May 18, 2020 9:26 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:24 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
I started laughing when I read that as my response was "I think you are missing a digit" as I'd describe it as 10 to 20, not one or two! But that's just my impression, thinking there are at least 90 to 95% Trump voters here. I'm sure, however, that there are polls here regarding this, one not that long ago. I don't remember that many participants in that last one.

Vinny

Vinny

Vinny
Oh I'm sure most people here will vote for him. But their actual opinion of him seems mixed from what I can tell. Voting for someone doesn't mean you fully support them, it just means you prefer them over the next guy.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon May 18, 2020 10:00 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:26 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:24 pm
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
I started laughing when I read that as my response was "I think you are missing a digit" as I'd describe it as 10 to 20, not one or two! But that's just my impression, thinking there are at least 90 to 95% Trump voters here. I'm sure, however, that there are polls here regarding this, one not that long ago. I don't remember that many participants in that last one.

Vinny

[/quote]

Oh I'm sure most people here will vote for him. But their actual opinion of him seems mixed from what I can tell. Voting for someone doesn't mean you fully support them, it just means you prefer them over the next guy.
[/quote]

I get a different impression. I sense a lot more solid than mixed. I detect little mix. But your perception / impression may be better than mine is on this. I may be too sensitive to what I read on this topic.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am

Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.

Trump is like your garrulous old uncle who you hate to invite over for Thanksgiving because he drives everyone nuts. Despite the irresponsible utterances, in many ways his instincts are right. When it comes to voting, you have to look past the fluff and pick the party that you think will best represent your interests. IMHO Trump's twitter habit and lack of brain to mouth filter rate as mild annoyances compared to the inestimable damage that parts of the Democratic platform would inflict if they gained power. Open borders, the wealth tax, the Green new deal, the erosion of free speech and other liberties...are you sure you can swallow all that???
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Tue May 19, 2020 9:26 am

sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.
That's a pretty good guess as to the reason, because it certainly isn't true. One or two die-hard supporters is probably fair to say.

sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
IMHO Trump's twitter habit and lack of brain to mouth filter rate as mild annoyances compared to the inestimable damage that parts of the Democratic platform would inflict if they gained power. Open borders, the wealth tax, the Green new deal, the erosion of free speech and other liberties...are you sure you can swallow all that???
Not only all that, but a big one for me is judge appointments, particularly on the Supreme Court. Any Dem is going to appoint people who think it's a judge's job to make things up as he goes along, when of course the truth is the opposite.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Tue May 19, 2020 10:17 am

I'm sure I'm up there on Vinny's list. I agree with everything people like Ad and Dualstow have said about Trump's "alternative facts", temper tantrums in the White House, irresponsible statements and use of Twitter etc. I just don't think those are as important as other considerations.

And btw some more serious issues I have with the Democratic party: the rise of identity politics which is the ugliest social development we have had as a nation since slavery & Jim Crow. And globalism which has been incredibly destructive for the middle class plus look where it got us during this pandemic, with no ability to manufacture even simple essential items.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Tue May 19, 2020 10:19 am

MangoMan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:49 am
Xan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:26 am
sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.
That's a pretty good guess as to the reason, because it certainly isn't true. One or two die-hard supporters is probably fair to say.
I would agree.

Vinny, why don't you tell us who here you think is a die-hard Trump fan and then let them respond?
Maybe. Have to think about that and whether anything positive comes from that.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue May 19, 2020 10:38 am

MangoMan wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:00 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:37 pm

I predict that Biden won't be the nominee. The most likely way they will fix it is to pick someone else at the convention.
Anyone want to guess who it's going to be? Hint: initials are HRC.
This has been mentioned before on this board. I just don't see how HRC can be the nominee when she didn't participate in the primaries. Same for Cuomo. Please explain how this can be rationalized without, say, Bernie or Warren supporters' heads exploding.
Biden isn't going to get the Bernie baby votes anyway.
Same with Warren's supporters, whoever they may be.
The DNC cheated Bernie last time and they'll cheat Biden, Bernie and Warren this time.
After all, it's not like they care about democracy!
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by stuper1 » Tue May 19, 2020 12:09 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:55 am
That is excellent.
I'm still predicting Trump, and Republicans in general, win in a landslide in November, if nothing else goes seriously wrong before then.
I think (and hope) Trump will win in November also. Not because I'm a huge Trump supporter, but just because Democrats big government ideas are stupid. And yeah the identity politics is infuriating.

However, your statement above, Libertarian666, made me laugh. "If nothing else goes seriously wrong"? What else could go more seriously wrong than this COVID-19 nightmare?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Tue May 19, 2020 12:46 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:09 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:55 am
That is excellent.
I'm still predicting Trump, and Republicans in general, win in a landslide in November, if nothing else goes seriously wrong before then.
I think (and hope) Trump will win in November also. Not because I'm a huge Trump supporter, but just because Democrats big government ideas are stupid. And yeah the identity politics is infuriating.

However, your statement above, Libertarian666, made me laugh. "If nothing else goes seriously wrong"? What else could go more seriously wrong than this COVID-19 nightmare?
Trump seems to me to be itching to start up his Cold War with China again... his aggressive actions against China and other countries have been very unpopular in aggregate for his entire presidency, and starting that non-sense back up again could prove to be a very bitter icing to top the COVID-19 cake.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by stuper1 » Tue May 19, 2020 1:23 pm

Unpopular with whom?

They are very popular with me. Why should we be friends with a totalitarian regime that steals all of our best ideas and jobs?

And where did COVID start anyway?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Tue May 19, 2020 1:54 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:23 pm
Unpopular with whom?

They are very popular with me. Why should we be friends with a totalitarian regime that steals all of our best ideas and jobs?

And where did COVID start anyway?
Unpopular with the general public in aggregate, as I stated in the original post. Trump's approval ratings were the worst during the times he was most aggressive with China and other countries. You can also look at how the stock market behaved during those times as to another clue that the general public did not like the policy. Obviously, the minority which is Trump's core like it, but the majority finds Trump's stance on China and trade in general as very unpopular. There is a reason why Trump capitulated and put the trade war on pause last year before the election year started up. He knew that if he kept it up it would cost him the election. So he has tried to put it on the back burner until he inevitably starts it back up after the election if he wins. But he seems like he just can't help himself. My biggest fear with Trump is that if he does get re-elected we will wind up not just in a trade-war with China, but in a real war with them. Globalization and inter-dependence ensures peace. If we sever these ties, there's nothing to stop both sides from devolving into physical war, especially with how aggressive Trump's speech and actions are. He is poking the bear every chance he gets.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue May 19, 2020 3:15 pm

General Election: Trump vs. Biden- Harvard-Harris- Biden 53, Trump 47- Biden +6
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden- Civiqs- Biden 48, Trump 47- Biden +1
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden- OH Predictive Insights- Biden 50, Trump 43- Biden +7
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden- Roanoke College- Biden 51, Trump 39- Biden +12
Tennessee: Trump vs. Biden- East Tennessee State- Trump 53-, Biden 36 Trump +17
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Tortoise » Tue May 19, 2020 3:33 pm

Didn’t the polls going into the 2016 election suggest that Trump was going to lose, yet he won, suggesting that a lot of poll participants may have been embarrassed or just unwilling to openly admit that they planned to vote for Trump?

If so, what does that imply about these polls for the 2020 election?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue May 19, 2020 4:01 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:33 pm
Didn’t the polls going into the 2016 election suggest that Trump was going to lose, yet he won, suggesting that a lot of poll participants may have been embarrassed or just unwilling to openly admit that they planned to vote for Trump?

If so, what does that imply about these polls for the 2020 election?

Very little. The 2016 polls generally had Clinton up by 1-2% nationally. And they were more or less accurate. She won the popular vote. The polls also had Hillary up by very narrow margins in most of the swing states. They turned out to be wrong and Trump won most of them, by very narrow margins. The takeaway is not that the polls were wrong. Trump's upset victories were almost all within the margin of error for the respective polls. The take away is that in a really close election, turn out matters. Trump's people turned out, and Clinton's by and large did not. The margin of error varies a bit and I do factor in that Trump supporters are not always accurately reflected in some polls, so I build in another 1% when I look at these numbers. But generally any poll that is from a reputable source and that has a margin of 5% or higher, is almost certainly outside the statistical margin of error. I colored Georgia purple because a 1% margin for Biden in a traditionally conservative state is obviously too close to call that state. And barring some kind of Trump meltdown, I fully expect him to take Georgia in November. But the fact that multiple polls are suggesting a reliably Republican state like Georgia is within the margin of error, does not bode well for team Trump. Even more worrisome is that a lot of states that Trump took on 2016, and he will need in November are polling for Biden by numbers that are way outside the margin of error. The election is still 5+ months away and that is a long while. But as I noted in an earlier comment, if the election were today, with these numbers, I'd borrow money from the mob to bet on a Biden victory.

FWIW though I think Biden has benefited from his enforced isolation. Trump has the misfortune of not being able to stay off the stage and keeping his mouth shut. (Not that I think he would in any event.) As POTUS he is our leader, for good or ill, in a time of national emergency. And with his endless flubs, mistakes, and outright lies, being put under the proverbial spotlight, Biden just by not being Trump, is starting to look pretty good. But I do expect the polls to tighten between now and November.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 pm

Another piece of evidence supporting Trump's landslide 2020 re-election?

https://t.co/j4in1NpRm9?amp=1

The Commander in Chief’s Following Wanes

I repeat my postulation that he has gained no new voters and has lost many who prior voted him. NOT a good sign when a Republican loses military support? What is the last Republican president to which this has happened?

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue May 19, 2020 9:47 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 pm
Another piece of evidence supporting Trump's landslide 2020 re-election?

https://t.co/j4in1NpRm9?amp=1

The Commander in Chief’s Following Wanes

I repeat my postulation that he has gained no new voters and has lost many who prior voted him. NOT a good sign when a Republican loses military support? What is the last Republican president to which this has happened?

Vinny

Nixon?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Tue May 19, 2020 11:38 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:47 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 pm
Another piece of evidence supporting Trump's landslide 2020 re-election?

https://t.co/j4in1NpRm9?amp=1

The Commander in Chief’s Following Wanes

I repeat my postulation that he has gained no new voters and has lost many who prior voted him. NOT a good sign when a Republican loses military support? What is the last Republican president to which this has happened?

Vinny

Nixon?
On a quick Bing search I could find no evidence of that.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Wed May 20, 2020 7:39 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 7:04 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:33 pm
Didn’t the polls going into the 2016 election suggest that Trump was going to lose, yet he won, suggesting that a lot of poll participants may have been embarrassed or just unwilling to openly admit that they planned to vote for Trump?

If so, what does that imply about these polls for the 2020 election?
I'm sure that 4 years of nonstop demonizing of Trump and anyone who supports him by the lamestream media wouldn't make anyone leery of admitting that they are planning to vote for him. ;)
That's definitely a thing. I know a number of people quietly planning to vote for Trump (and here in Manhattan, no less) but who would never admit it publicly - because they want to keep their social status and jobs/clients. Many of them are not in the classic Trump demographic, e.g. a retired woman with a state pension and liberal social views, a young gay hairstylist, the local neighborhood dog walker/cat sitter.

I think this figured into the 2016 election and was probably greater than a 1% bump. Ad is right, the results were nearly all within the margin of error cited by the polls. However don't you find it interesting that the errors all went the same way? If it were truly all due to unbiased polling error, half the states (on average) should have gone the other way, and Clinton would have won. That's why she was projected as the winner with such confidence.
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