Some 2020 General Election Polls

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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:25 pm

OK glennds. You did weave those two topics rather seamlessly in your posts, so your clarification is appreciated.

FWIW - I'll defend anyone who I think is wrongly accused. I think Trump is being wrongly accused of quite a lot, excepting his brazen mouth & tweets. You won't get much argument there. However, his words & tweets, like that of any other President, do not carry the force of law and thus will not have lasting impact.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:37 pm

glennds wrote:
Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:51 pm
Even if one ... might think Koppel a deranged maniac as his demeanor might imply
I laughed out loud at this, btw!
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Mountaineer » Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:42 pm

Tech, why are you not a minarchist? From Wikipedia:
A night-watchman state or minarchy is a model of a state that is limited and minimal, whose only functions are to act as an enforcer of the non-aggression principle by providing its citizens with the military, the police and courts, thereby protecting them from aggression, theft, breach of contract, fraud and enforcing property laws. Its proponents are called minarchists.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:01 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:52 am
Mountaineer wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:42 pm
Tech, why are you not a minarchist? From Wikipedia:
A night-watchman state or minarchy is a model of a state that is limited and minimal, whose only functions are to act as an enforcer of the non-aggression principle by providing its citizens with the military, the police and courts, thereby protecting them from aggression, theft, breach of contract, fraud and enforcing property laws. Its proponents are called minarchists.
Because the monopoly of force inherent in any government means that there is no way for the subjects to prevent even a minimalist state from increasing its own power by ignoring the rules it is supposed to follow.
I'm trying to get my head around how a country would defend itself without a military. I can somewhat understand private police for internal needs but I'm flumoxed by what would substitute for military (for external threats). I'm thinking about the old adage "nature abhors a vacuum" and what that would mean re. a country of anarcho-capitalists not getting sucked up by another country with a powerful dictator/military or similar government.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:57 am

Only a handful of new polls since I last posted on Monday. Obviously all predate the convention, but FWIW...


General Election: Trump vs. Biden Echelon Insights Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 45, Trump 39 Biden +6


New Jersey: Trump vs. Biden DKC Biden 52, Trump 33 Biden +19
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden St. Anselm Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Morning Call Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 3%.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:51 pm

Been a while since I've updated this thread. All polls listed below are from this week (Sunday to present). Where multiple polls for the same state/general election exist the newer are on top.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Biden 53, Trump 42 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden NPR/PBS/Marist Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden JTN/RMG Research* Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 55, Trump 43 Biden +12

General Election average of national polls via 538 Trump 41.8% / Biden 52.3% Biden +10.5


Alaska: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Trump 45, Biden 39 Trump +6
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden KUSA/SurveyUSA Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
Florida: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 48, Trump 48 Tie
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Biden St. Pete Polls Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Florida Atlantic University Biden 51, Trump 47 Biden +4
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Hawaii: Trump vs. Biden HNN/Civil Beat Biden 61, Trump 28 Biden +33
Indiana: Trump vs. Biden SurveyUSA Trump 49, Biden 42 Trump +7
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 49 Tie
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Pan Atlantic Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden EPIC-MRA Biden 48, Trump 39 Biden +9
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 48, Trump 40 Biden +8
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 46 Biden +6
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7
Missouri: Trump vs. Biden SLU/YouGov Trump 52, Biden 43 Trump +9
Montana: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 52, Biden 46 Trump +6
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Las Vegas Review-Journal* Biden 44, Trump 42 Biden +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 46 Biden +6
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden Boston Globe/Suffolk* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden UNH* Biden 55, Trump 43 Biden +12
New Jersey: Trump vs. Biden Stockton University Biden 56, Trump 36 Biden +20
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 49, Trump 49 Tie
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Susquehanna Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 46, Trump 42 Biden +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Trump 49, Biden 41 Trump +8
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden Roanoke College* Biden 54, Trump 39 Biden +15
Washington: Trump vs. Biden KING-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 55, Trump 34 Biden +21
West Virginia: Trump vs. Biden MetroNews* Trump 53, Biden 39 Trump +14
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7



# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%.

A few observations...

* We are in the bottom of the 9th inning. The opportunities to drastically alter the current trajectory of the election are now few.
^ Trump has narrowed the polls in Florida such that the state may be within reach, albeit barely. The polls are still much worse than what he was facing in 2016.
* Excepting Texas (which did not show up in the last six days of polling) there are no large electoral vote rich states that are in the solidly or likely Trump column.
* The rust belt states that Trump carried by his finger tips, and which propelled him to victory in 2016, look to be mostly outside of his reach. Ohio is the lone exception.
* Most of the polls that were off in 2016 were nonetheless within their respective margins of error. Most polling entities have adjusted their methodologies to compensate for the possibility of undercounting Trump supporters.
* Out of an abundance of caution I have expanded the margin of error to 4% for color coding.

As of this post there are 17 days to the general election.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Mountaineer » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:02 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:51 pm
Been a while since I've updated this thread. All polls listed below are from this week (Sunday to present). Where multiple polls for the same state/general election exist the newer are on top.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Biden 53, Trump 42 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden NPR/PBS/Marist Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden JTN/RMG Research* Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 55, Trump 43 Biden +12

General Election average of national polls via 538 Trump 41.8% / Biden 52.3% Biden +10.5


Alaska: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Trump 45, Biden 39 Trump +6
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden KUSA/SurveyUSA Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
Florida: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 48, Trump 48 Tie
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Biden St. Pete Polls Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Florida Atlantic University Biden 51, Trump 47 Biden +4
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Hawaii: Trump vs. Biden HNN/Civil Beat Biden 61, Trump 28 Biden +33
Indiana: Trump vs. Biden SurveyUSA Trump 49, Biden 42 Trump +7
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 49 Tie
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Pan Atlantic Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 54, Trump 43 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden EPIC-MRA Biden 48, Trump 39 Biden +9
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 48, Trump 40 Biden +8
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 46 Biden +6
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7
Missouri: Trump vs. Biden SLU/YouGov Trump 52, Biden 43 Trump +9
Montana: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 52, Biden 46 Trump +6
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Las Vegas Review-Journal* Biden 44, Trump 42 Biden +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 46 Biden +6
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden Boston Globe/Suffolk* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden UNH* Biden 55, Trump 43 Biden +12
New Jersey: Trump vs. Biden Stockton University Biden 56, Trump 36 Biden +20
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 49, Trump 49 Tie
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Susquehanna Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 46, Trump 42 Biden +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Trump 49, Biden 41 Trump +8
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden Roanoke College* Biden 54, Trump 39 Biden +15
Washington: Trump vs. Biden KING-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 55, Trump 34 Biden +21
West Virginia: Trump vs. Biden MetroNews* Trump 53, Biden 39 Trump +14
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7



# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%.

A few observations...

* We are in the bottom of the 9th inning. The opportunities to drastically alter the current trajectory of the election are now few.
^ Trump has narrowed the polls in Florida such that the state may be within reach, albeit barely. The polls are still much worse than what he was facing in 2016.
* Excepting Texas (which did not show up in the last six days of polling) there are no large electoral vote rich states that are in the solidly or likely Trump column.
* The rust belt states that Trump carried by his finger tips, and which propelled him to victory in 2016, look to be mostly outside of his reach. Ohio is the lone exception.
* Most of the polls that were off in 2016 were nonetheless within their respective margins of error. Most polling entities have adjusted their methodologies to compensate for the possibility of undercounting Trump supporters.
* Out of an abundance of caution I have expanded the margin of error to 4% for color coding.

As of this post there are 17 days to the general election.
Given my avatar, you can probably guess which poll I think has it right. ;D ;D ;D
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:39 am

Not surprising given his affinity for coal, West Virginia is firmly in the Trump column. The Democrats are not making any effort to contest the state.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:42 am

Polls since Saturday. Newer are on top.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden YouGov Biden 48, Trump 37, Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins NY Times/Siena Biden 50, Trump 41, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 0 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins JTN/RMG Research Biden 51, Trump 43, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +8


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
Arkansas: Trump vs. Biden Talk Business/Hendrix College* Trump 58, Biden 34 Trump +24
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden Univ. of Colorado/YouGov Biden 47, Trump 38 Biden +9
Florida: Trump vs. Biden UNF Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Trump 56, Biden 39 Trump +17
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden MIRS/Mitchell Research* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
Missouri: Trump vs. Biden Missouri Scout* Trump 51, Biden 45 Trump +6
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5


Average of national polls Biden +10.3%

# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by jalanlong » Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:48 am

glennds wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:48 pm

But my point is that he's been more vocal about presidential power than his predecessors, and what is helpful about it is that it causes inquisitive people like me to start thinking about the limits of presidential power, what was intended in the formation of the Government, and what the pros and cons might be in the future.
That would be helpful if it made most citizens think about that. Unfortunately I feel like all it does is make the average person focus on getting the "right" person in the office as opposed to reducing the power of the office itself.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:32 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:01 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:42 am
Polls since Saturday. Newer are on top.


General Election: Trump vs. Biden YouGov Biden 48, Trump 37, Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins NY Times/Siena Biden 50, Trump 41, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 0 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins JTN/RMG Research Biden 51, Trump 43, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +8


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
Arkansas: Trump vs. Biden Talk Business/Hendrix College* Trump 58, Biden 34 Trump +24
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden Univ. of Colorado/YouGov Biden 47, Trump 38 Biden +9
Florida: Trump vs. Biden UNF Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Trump 56, Biden 39 Trump +17
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden MIRS/Mitchell Research* Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
Missouri: Trump vs. Biden Missouri Scout* Trump 51, Biden 45 Trump +6
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post* Biden 49, Trump 48 Biden +1
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5


Average of national polls Biden +10.3%

# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%.
That looks a lot more red and purple than the previous ones. Add in all the Trump voters who aren't admitting it, and you have a different picture.

A couple quick points...

* These are the polls that have popped up over the last few days. In this case there happen to be more polls showing states that are safely Republican and are not being contested by the Democrats.
^ I expanded the color coding for within the margin of error from 3% to 4% in the last post out of an abundance of caution.
* Some of the polls are not highly rated. (i.e. Trafalgar has a D- rating for accuracy and reliability at 538).
* Most of the really reputable polling entities adjusted their methodologies after 2016 to factor in the likelihood of closeted Trump supporters.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by glennds » Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:53 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:48 am
glennds wrote:
Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:48 pm

But my point is that he's been more vocal about presidential power than his predecessors, and what is helpful about it is that it causes inquisitive people like me to start thinking about the limits of presidential power, what was intended in the formation of the Government, and what the pros and cons might be in the future.
That would be helpful if it made most citizens think about that. Unfortunately I feel like all it does is make the average person focus on getting the "right" person in the office as opposed to reducing the power of the office itself.
Good point. The same argument applies to the power scope and limits of Congress (legislatively) and the Judiciary, not just limited to SCOTUS. All three of these branches have progressively drifted, expanded in scope of powers. Executive branch gets the most attention because it vests in one person, but the others deserve some scrutiny also.
It should be a concern to anyone that governmental branch power is a true one way street, only accrues, never decreases. It would be a mind blowing fantasy to imagine political leaders advocating reduction in their own authority. Could you even imagine a President (from any party) doing that?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:25 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:32 pm
* Most of the really reputable polling entities adjusted their methodologies after 2016 to factor in the likelihood of closeted Trump supporters.
Is that truly the case? I hadn't seen anything about that. Even if they were, it's unlikely they're fully accounting for the extent of the "silent" vote, as I would expect it's become much more extensive in the era of "cancel culture" and firings or prosecutions for holding unpopular political views.

I also took a look at these numbers and immediately thought, Wow, Trump could win this. A silent Trump vote of just a few percent plus a mail-in ballot "penalty" of 1% or so for the Democrats could easily overcome these Biden margins. And these are mostly major battleground states, where the outcome really matters.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pp4me » Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:32 pm

I was just watching Scott Adams and he believes that rather than just being silent Trump supporters, a lot of them are actually telling pollsters that they are going to vote for Biden because it's "fun". He didn't elaborate on what he meant by that but I assume he means they enjoyed the shock and dismay on the faces of the news people so much in 2016 that they want to experience it again. Says he took an informal poll on twitter and there were hundreds who confirmed that they had actually done this.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by glennds » Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:02 pm

pp4me wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:32 pm
I was just watching Scott Adams and he believes that rather than just being silent Trump supporters, a lot of them are actually telling pollsters that they are going to vote for Biden because it's "fun". He didn't elaborate on what he meant by that but I assume he means they enjoyed the shock and dismay on the faces of the news people so much in 2016 that they want to experience it again. Says he took an informal poll on twitter and there were hundreds who confirmed that they had actually done this.
There was a time when a practice such as this would be called lying and poor citizenship.
Have our values changed to the point where we find it fun to lie for the purpose of bringing unhappiness and hurt to others?

Economic and political ideologies are one thing. But people like that just suck. And the fact that it's become cool to suck kinda sucks.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:33 am

glennds wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:02 pm
pp4me wrote:
Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:32 pm
I was just watching Scott Adams and he believes that rather than just being silent Trump supporters, a lot of them are actually telling pollsters that they are going to vote for Biden because it's "fun". He didn't elaborate on what he meant by that but I assume he means they enjoyed the shock and dismay on the faces of the news people so much in 2016 that they want to experience it again. Says he took an informal poll on twitter and there were hundreds who confirmed that they had actually done this.
There was a time when a practice such as this would be called lying and poor citizenship.
Have our values changed to the point where we find it fun to lie for the purpose of bringing unhappiness and hurt to others?

Economic and political ideologies are one thing. But people like that just suck. And the fact that it's become cool to suck kinda sucks.
EXACTLY my reaction! If I find out someone has lied to me just one time, they never get the future benefit of the doubt from me and are always under suspicion as to whether I am hearing the truth from them.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:15 am

"A false witness shall not go unpunished, and he that speaketh lies shall perish." -Proverbs 19:9

Lying is inherently dishonorable and it has become far too normative in certain quarters. This should not be a surprise, though it is certainly a source of sadness, when we have a president whose very name has become synonymous with mendacity.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:29 am

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:39 am
Sorry, you are under no obligation to be truthful to someone with whom you didn't ask to be engaged, and is likely disturbing you.
For my ethics, I'd just hang up on them or give them no answer at all. But not an untruthful one. What is so difficult with behaving that way?

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:30 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:15 am
"A false witness shall not go unpunished, and he that speaketh lies shall perish." -Proverbs 19:9

Lying is inherently dishonorable and it has become far too normative in certain quarters. This should not be a surprise, though it is certainly a source of sadness, when we have a president whose very name has become synonymous with mendacity.
Somewhat related and some may think tangential but...

Luke 16:10-12 10"Whoever can be trusted with very little can also be trusted with much, and whoever is dishonest with very little will also be dishonest with much. 11So if you have not been trustworthy in handling worldly wealth, who will trust you with true riches? 12And if you have not been trustworthy with someone else's property, who will give you property of your own?


Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by glennds » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:44 am

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:39 am
Sorry, you are under no obligation to be truthful to someone with whom you didn't ask to be engaged, and is likely disturbing you.
If you mean there's no obligation in legal terms, i.e. no law against it, you're absolutely right.

Personal values are not always defined by legal requirements though.
And of course it is completely your right to set your own standards. If deception for for entertainment floats your boat, then party on and I for one hope we never do business together.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:18 pm

Polls released today...

General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden SurveyUSA Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC Dornsife Biden 54, Trump 41 Biden +13


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Civiqs Biden 51, Trump 47 Biden +4
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Civiqs Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Civiqs Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk Biden 49, Trump 42 Biden +7


# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%.
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vnatale
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:30 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:03 pm
tomfoolery wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:53 am
MangoMan wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:39 am
Sorry, you are under no obligation to be truthful to someone with whom you didn't ask to be engaged, and is likely disturbing you.
Unless they have a badge and gun, in which case if they engage you, even if it’s disturbing you, in most places, you have to identify yourself and provide demographic information truthfully. Because... the law.
Special exception.
glennds wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:44 am

If you mean there's no obligation in legal terms, i.e. no law against it, you're absolutely right.

Personal values are not always defined by legal requirements though.
And of course it is completely your right to set your own standards. If deception for for entertainment floats your boat, then party on and I for one hope we never do business together.
I never said anything about business; presumably, both parties chose to be engaged in the conversation.
Personal values don't apply to telemarketers of any kind. I have a different set of rules that apply.
My special rule is when it is the rare time when my phone is plugged in and it is a telemarketer calling as soon as I identify them as so they do not hear a word from me and I hang up on them while they are in mid-sentence. That is all they deserve from me.

VInny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pp4me » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:15 am

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:45 pm
vnatale wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:30 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:03 pm
tomfoolery wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:53 am
MangoMan wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:39 am
Sorry, you are under no obligation to be truthful to someone with whom you didn't ask to be engaged, and is likely disturbing you.
Unless they have a badge and gun, in which case if they engage you, even if it’s disturbing you, in most places, you have to identify yourself and provide demographic information truthfully. Because... the law.
Special exception.
glennds wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:44 am

If you mean there's no obligation in legal terms, i.e. no law against it, you're absolutely right.

Personal values are not always defined by legal requirements though.
And of course it is completely your right to set your own standards. If deception for for entertainment floats your boat, then party on and I for one hope we never do business together.
I never said anything about business; presumably, both parties chose to be engaged in the conversation.
Personal values don't apply to telemarketers of any kind. I have a different set of rules that apply.
My special rule is when it is the rare time when my phone is plugged in and it is a telemarketer calling as soon as I identify them as so they do not hear a word from me and I hang up on them while they are in mid-sentence. That is all they deserve from me.

VInny
Some would consider that disrespectful (I don't). Not sure how that's any different than playing with them.
I don't hang up on them. I just sit the phone down and let them keep on talking until they realize nobody is listening. I figure that way I can waste some of their time just like they are doing to me. Since I use Google voice for my landline I then go in afterward and report the call as Spam. I know the robo-callers keep changing numbers but I figure that will hassle them at least a little bit.

Sometimes I do play along to have some fun. Like when they are obviously phishing for information they are pretending to already have but just want to confirm. I just like hearing how the caller responds when they realize they've been busted.

I've never been called by a pollster but I might very well give them false information and I wouldn't feel the slightest bit bad about it. These are companies who sell poll results for profit but I don't get a penny from them for invading my privacy. And why do we even need these polls any way? I can see why the politicians would want them to know where to campaign but why do we need the news media to constantly be telling us who is behind and who is ahead?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:13 pm

Polls from the last 24 hrs...


General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45, Jorgensen 3, Hawkins 1 Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC/Dornsife Biden 53, Trump 42 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9


Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
California: Trump vs. Biden PPIC* Biden 58, Trump 32 Biden +26
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 55, Trump 39 Biden +16
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 52, Trump 47 Biden +5
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 48, Trump 48 Tie
Kansas: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Trump 48, Biden 41 Trump +7
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Survey USA Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 49 Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 47, Trump 49 Trump +2
Oklahoma: Trump vs. Biden Sooner Poll* Trump 59, Biden 37 Trump +22
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Civiqs* Biden 52, Trump 46 Biden +6
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 45, Trump 51 Trump +6
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden Washington Post Biden 52, Trump 41 Biden +11
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Morning Consult Biden 54, Trump 42 Biden +12


Average of national polls Biden +9.8%

# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error typically +/- 4%.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:17 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:33 pm
Prophecy...Texas becoming competitive transforms the R party into something else. Not sure what that is but I suspect it looks less southern and more Midwest/inter mountain west where the Republican flavor is way dialed down on social conservatism and race issues and more about actual political conservatism and effective but small government.

Texas and its evolving demographics is probably the most important long term strategic issue confronting the GOP. The minute Texas flips, the GOP's path to winning a national election becomes more difficult by a factor. This is because of the Electoral College. Texas is the only large population/electoral vote rich state that has been reliably Republican. The last time they voted Democrat was in 1976. Because of the EC, if Texas votes Dem by even 1/2 of 1%, every Republican vote in the state becomes meaningless in a presidential election. Put bluntly, if Texas flips and we are still using the EC to determine presidential elections, I don't see a viable path to the White House for Republicans. The electoral college is a suicide pact for the Republican Party. But most Republicans are too terrified to grasp it because they can't see past the next election and have largely given up trying to win a popular vote election. Republicans have become more or less open in their defense of minority rule.

The GOP badly needs a come to Jesus reality check. And I think this election may provide that. The moment is just about here where they will need to decide whether they want to be a serious national political party, or whether they are content to decline into the status of a regional party with little appeal outside of rural mostly white states. If the former then they need to begin by jettisoning the fringe elements that have taken over the party and alienated so much of the electorate. If on the other hand they are content to be the party of Donald Trump, conspiracy theorists and white supremacists, then we may begin seeing the movement towards the creation of a new, center right political party capable of, and willing to, compete on a national scale.
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