Some 2020 General Election Polls

[vnatale]

I am tired and we are not going to know the winner tonight. Time for bed.

I am seeing 220-213, not in Trump's favor.

Vinny

[vnatale]

Tentatively.... I think we're looking at a Trump victory here?

How so? And, if he does win, do you want to trade country leaders??!!!

Vinny

[sophie]

I'm not quite as confident, tech.

It depends on where the missing votes are coming from. In a couple of cases (like Georgia, Michigan, and PA to an extent) it's the big cities where there are a lot of votes that lean heavily Democratic. In others like PA, it's the mail-in ballots which are also heavily Democratic.

I share your sentiment that the last-minute change to the mail-in rules in PA was motivated by partisan interests and needs to be reviewed by the Supreme Court. It was always understood that you had to get your ballot in early, in time for the election. I can see both sides of the argument, but we need some smart constitutionalists to make a precedent-setting decision.

[Cortopassi]

No violence yet from either side.

And I still find it amazing that hundreds of millions of people can be split so evenly. That is just crazy that this happens the same way every 4 years.

[sophie]

No violence yet from either side.

Not quite true.

There are reports of overnight rioting in Seattle. I saw a report about Brooklyn also, but can't find it this morning. It might be a little difficult to distinguish the current high levels of run of the mill violent crime in both cities from election-induced rioting though.

[doodle]

Biden leading in wisconsin, michigan and nevada that puts at 270.

[Smith1776]

Biden leading in wisconsin, michigan and nevada that puts at 270.

If Trump wins I'm buying the Playstation 5. If Biden wins I'm buying the new Xbox.

[doodle]

If Trump wins I'm moving to your country

[doodle]

I'm not quite as confident, tech.

It depends on where the missing votes are coming from. In a couple of cases (like Georgia, Michigan, and PA to an extent) it's the big cities where there are a lot of votes that lean heavily Democratic. In others like PA, it's the mail-in ballots which are also heavily Democratic.

I share your sentiment that the last-minute change to the mail-in rules in PA was motivated by partisan interests and needs to be reviewed by the Supreme Court. It was always understood that you had to get your ballot in early, in time for the election. I can see both sides of the argument, but we need some smart constitutionalists to make a precedent-setting decision.

Yeah, how early? Mr. President has been attempting to dismantle the post office for months.

[Hal]

Biden leading in wisconsin, michigan and nevada that puts at 270.

If Trump wins I'm buying the Playstation 5. If Biden wins I'm buying the new Xbox.

And if its a draw you can buy both

[vnatale]

Biden leading in wisconsin, michigan and nevada that puts at 270.

If Trump wins I'm buying the Playstation 5. If Biden wins I'm buying the new Xbox.

The agonies of being a Canadian??!!

Vinny

[pp4me]

So were the polls just wrong again or were they fake polls published by fake news?

Seems to me there are 3 possibilities....

1.) Trump supporters were playing games with the pollsters for the fun of it as Scott Adams theorizes.
2.) The pollsters have no idea what they are doing.
3.) The pollsters know exactly what they are doing and were intentionally misleading.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Regardless of which 3 explanations is true I think it would be a good thing if nobody ever trusts them again.

[pp4me]

I'm not quite as confident, tech.

It depends on where the missing votes are coming from. In a couple of cases (like Georgia, Michigan, and PA to an extent) it's the big cities where there are a lot of votes that lean heavily Democratic. In others like PA, it's the mail-in ballots which are also heavily Democratic.

I share your sentiment that the last-minute change to the mail-in rules in PA was motivated by partisan interests and needs to be reviewed by the Supreme Court. It was always understood that you had to get your ballot in early, in time for the election. I can see both sides of the argument, but we need some smart constitutionalists to make a precedent-setting decision.

Trump needs to contest this to the bitter end.
I'm going to have to do some research on exactly how the slates of electors are selected to be sent to the Electoral College.

I was looking forward to a clear winner whomever it was and for a while it seemed to be going that way.

Now it seems that the Scott Adams worse-case scenario, already pre-planned by the Dems he says, might be coming true. He thought there would probably be a mess like this and it would end up in the Supreme Court with the court deciding for Trump - Amy Coney Barrett probably casting the deciding vote.

Then he thought 20 to 30 thousand Antifa/BLM protestors would descend on the White House and physically occupy it - but only if Trump and his family aren't there to justify the use of lethal force. The MSM would then declare that Biden was the winner and that will be it.

I still hope he's wrong and sanity will prevail but it's a strange year.

[doodle]

Looking to me like Biden clear-cut win by this evening. Everything falling his way now.

[pp4me]

Looking to me like Biden clear-cut win by this evening. Everything falling his way now.

Why are you saying that?

[Xan]

Looking to me like Biden clear-cut win by this evening. Everything falling his way now.

Why are you saying that?

It does look like he'll win Wisconsin and Michigan, but he also needs Nevada and it's close with only 2/3 reporting.

[doodle]

Looking to me like Biden clear-cut win by this evening. Everything falling his way now.

Why are you saying that?

It does look like he'll win Wisconsin and Michigan, but he also needs Nevada and it's close with only 2/3 reporting.

No, he took arizona

[Xan]

Looking to me like Biden clear-cut win by this evening. Everything falling his way now.

Why are you saying that?

It does look like he'll win Wisconsin and Michigan, but he also needs Nevada and it's close with only 2/3 reporting.

No, he took arizona

That still only gets him to 264.

[doodle]

True, I'm having trouble keeping up on phone.

[doodle]

Hillary took nevada in 2016...can't imagine it swinging Trump

[vnatale]

True, I'm having trouble keeping up on phone.

Lastest I am seeing...

Vinny

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[Ad Orientem]

Well as of right now it looks like Biden is probably going to win by his fingertips. But I have to admit that the Trump supporters who were shaking their heads at most of the polls have been largely proven right. Most of the polls were off, in some cases by margins worse than the 2016 fail.

[vnatale]

Well as of right now it looks like Biden is probably going to win by his fingertips. But I have to admit that the Trump supporters who were shaking their heads at most of the polls have been largely proven right. Most of the polls were off, in some cases by margins worse than the 2016 fail.

However, just about all of those in 2016 were off by the margin of error? In most cases, only 1% or 2%? How much are they off this year?

Vinny

[Ad Orientem]

Well as of right now it looks like Biden is probably going to win by his fingertips. But I have to admit that the Trump supporters who were shaking their heads at most of the polls have been largely proven right. Most of the polls were off, in some cases by margins worse than the 2016 fail.

However, just about all of those in 2016 were off by the margin of error? In most cases, only 1% or 2%? How much are they off this year?

Vinny

A Washington Post/ABC News poll published on October 28 had Biden winning Wisconsin by 17 points. The New York Times had him winning the state by 11 points on the day before election day. The national polling averages had Biden ahead in the popular vote by somewhere between 8-9%. And that actually includes a handful of polls that were calling the election as much closer or even with Trump up very slightly. These aren't near misses. These are epic fails that should warrant investigation.

[vnatale]

Well as of right now it looks like Biden is probably going to win by his fingertips. But I have to admit that the Trump supporters who were shaking their heads at most of the polls have been largely proven right. Most of the polls were off, in some cases by margins worse than the 2016 fail.

However, just about all of those in 2016 were off by the margin of error? In most cases, only 1% or 2%? How much are they off this year?

Vinny

A Washington Post/ABC News poll published on October 28 had Biden winning Wisconsin by 17 points. The New York Times had him winning the state by 11 points on the day before election day. The national polling averages had Biden ahead in the popular vote by somewhere between 8-9%. And that actually includes a handful of polls that were calling the election as much closer or even with Trump up very slightly. These aren't near misses. These are epic fails that should warrant investigation.

At this point he has a popular vote lead of about 5%?

Vinny