Some 2020 General Election Polls

[vnatale]

Political signs?

How many political signs have you been seeing in your travels?

More, same, less than usual?

Yesterday I went off my property for the first time in three weeks. First headed to my office and then to the supermarket.

I made a loop, going in one way and coming back another.

This is a high involvement political area. Saw ZERO political signs in my town.

In the adjoining town saw a total of maybe three or four?

Way, way, way, way, way down from what I usually see.

Vinny

[vnatale]

This will certainly NOT help Trump re-election probabilities given that it seems that it is undisputed the Trump's handling of the virus has cost him the most votes, i.e., those who had voted for him in 2016 not going to be voting for him in 2020. It could be the cause for a landslide. A landslide NOT in his favor.

Vinny

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/politics ... index.html


A once restrained Fauci unleashes on White House coronavirus approach days before election

But Fauci's restraint appeared to have evaporated in a Washington Post interview published Saturday night, in which he called out the White House for allowing its strategy for fighting the virus to be shaped in part by a neuroradiologist with no training in the field of infectious disease -- who granted an interview to a Kremlin-controlled propaganda network the same day Fauci's remarks were released. The nation's top infectious disease expert also told the Post he appreciated chief of staff Mark Meadows' honesty when he admitted to CNN's Jake Tapper during a recent interview that the administration has given up controlling the spread of the virus.

At a time when Trump is downplaying the rising cases in the vast majority of states, dangerously holding huge rallies with few masks and no social distancing, and lodging the false and outlandish claim that doctors are exaggerating the number of Covid-19 deaths for profit, Fauci told the Post that the nation is "in for a whole lot of hurt."

"All the stars are aligned in the wrong place" as the country heads indoors in colder weather, Fauci told the newspaper in an interview late Friday -- a day when the US set a global record for the most daily cases and the nation surpassed 229,000 deaths. "You could not possibly be positioned more poorly."

[Cortopassi]

Fauci is a dago, a loser, a never Trumper, and has TDS level4.

Oh, and he was wrong on masks, Please remember, once you’ve chosen a direction, you are never, ever allowed to change. You must dig in and double down.

[pp4me]

Fauci reminds me of the kind of doctor I always get in trouble with and end up firing, or else getting fired. He'd probably insist that I take statins because that's what the "science" says and who are you to question it?

I'll take Scott Atlas any day.

[vnatale]

Fauci is a dago, a loser, a never Trumper, and has TDS level4.

Oh, and he was wrong on masks, Please remember, once you’ve chosen a direction, you are never, ever allowed to change. You must dig in and double down.

Yes, he is a "dago". But more specifically he is a "wop"!!!

Vinny

[jalanlong]

Fauci reminds me of the kind of doctor I always get in trouble with and end up firing, or else getting fired. He'd probably insist that I take statins because that's what the "science" says and who are you to question it?

I'll take Scott Atlas any day.

Exactly. Fauci would tell me meat causes heart disease and I need to eat more grains for health.

[Cortopassi]

Fauci reminds me of the kind of doctor I always get in trouble with and end up firing, or else getting fired. He'd probably insist that I take statins because that's what the "science" says and who are you to question it?

I'll take Scott Atlas any day.

Exactly. Fauci would tell me meat causes heart disease and I need to eat more grains for health.

I don’t disagree with either of these statements. It’s just that every single professional that has worked with a and then separated from Trump is denigrated by Trump. I just don’t like the style.

[Cortopassi]

Just watched a really good Frontline, back and forth on Trump and Biden’s pasts, the good the bad and the ugly.

[Ad Orientem]

What Trump Needs to Win: A Polling Error Much Bigger Than 2016’s

If the polls are right, Joe Biden could post the most decisive victory in a presidential election in three and a half decades, surpassing Bill Clinton’s win in 1996.

That’s a big “if.”

The indelible memory of 2016’s polling misfire, when Donald J. Trump trailed in virtually every pre-election poll and yet swept the battleground states and won the Electoral College, has hovered over the 2020 campaign. Mr. Biden’s unusually persistent lead has done little to dispel questions about whether the polls could be off again.

But while President Trump’s surprising victory has imbued him with an aura of political invincibility, the polls today put him in a far bigger predicament than the one he faced heading into Election Day in 2016. The polls show Mr. Biden with a far more significant lead than the one held by Hillary Clinton, and many of the likeliest explanations for the polling misfire do not appear to be in play today.

Of course, it’s possible the polls could be off by even more than they were four years ago. But to win, that’s exactly what Mr. Trump needs. He would need polls to be even worse than they were in the Northern battleground states four years ago. Crucially, he would also need polls to be off to a far greater extent at the national level as well as in the Sun Belt — and those polls have been relatively accurate in recent contests.

Read the rest here...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upsh ... e=Homepage

[Ad Orientem]

If Biden is so sure to win the election, why are all of the Dem-run big cities boarding everything up in anticipation of rioting? I mean if BLM/Antifa get their preferred candidate in, why riot?

Some folks riot when the home team wins the Super Bowl/World Series. People are basically idiots.

[Ad Orientem]

If the election is close, we may not know the winner on election night.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage

[vnatale]

What Trump Needs to Win: A Polling Error Much Bigger Than 2016’s

If the polls are right, Joe Biden could post the most decisive victory in a presidential election in three and a half decades, surpassing Bill Clinton’s win in 1996.

That’s a big “if.”

The indelible memory of 2016’s polling misfire, when Donald J. Trump trailed in virtually every pre-election poll and yet swept the battleground states and won the Electoral College, has hovered over the 2020 campaign. Mr. Biden’s unusually persistent lead has done little to dispel questions about whether the polls could be off again.

But while President Trump’s surprising victory has imbued him with an aura of political invincibility, the polls today put him in a far bigger predicament than the one he faced heading into Election Day in 2016. The polls show Mr. Biden with a far more significant lead than the one held by Hillary Clinton, and many of the likeliest explanations for the polling misfire do not appear to be in play today.

Of course, it’s possible the polls could be off by even more than they were four years ago. But to win, that’s exactly what Mr. Trump needs. He would need polls to be even worse than they were in the Northern battleground states four years ago. Crucially, he would also need polls to be off to a far greater extent at the national level as well as in the Sun Belt — and those polls have been relatively accurate in recent contests.

Read the rest here...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upsh ... e=Homepage

Also as of Sunday in 2016 Hillary was only at 4% and trending downwards while Biden yesterday was at 10% and holding steady.

This WILL be a repeat of Reagan over Carter in 1980, a 10% victory.

Vinny

[vnatale]

If the election is close, we may not know the winner on election night.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage

If

However, it will not be close.

There may, however, be many close elections in the Senate and, therefore, we will not know those results on election night.

Vinny

[glennds]

If the election is close, we may not know the winner on election night.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage

Reading this breakdown, what concerns me is the situations where one category of votes is reported first and then another category of votes is counted and reported separately. In states that are close, that practice could result in one presumptive winner, and then flip to the other a few days later. For example look at Alaska where in-person voting will be reported the day of the election but mail and absentee ballots a week later.
Maryland is the opposite. They are clear that results will not be available on election night, but then say that early in-person and mail ballots will be reported first.
Anyone else think this could get become a roller coaster ride?

I wonder how patient both campaigns will be as this plays out.

[Ad Orientem]

If the election is close, we may not know the winner on election night.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage

Reading this breakdown, what concerns me is the situations where one category of votes is reported first and then another category of votes is counted and reported separately. In states that are close, that practice could result in one presumptive winner, and then flip to the other a few days later. For example look at Alaska where in-person voting will be reported the day of the election but mail and absentee ballots a week later.
Maryland is the opposite. They are clear that results will not be available on election night, but then say that early in-person and mail ballots will be reported first.
Anyone else think this could get become a roller coaster ride?

I wonder how patient both campaigns will be as this plays out.

Trump has already announced he will be sending in the lawyers, presumably to try and disqualify as many votes as possible.

[vnatale]

If the election is close, we may not know the winner on election night.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage

Reading this breakdown, what concerns me is the situations where one category of votes is reported first and then another category of votes is counted and reported separately. In states that are close, that practice could result in one presumptive winner, and then flip to the other a few days later. For example look at Alaska where in-person voting will be reported the day of the election but mail and absentee ballots a week later.
Maryland is the opposite. They are clear that results will not be available on election night, but then say that early in-person and mail ballots will be reported first.
Anyone else think this could get become a roller coaster ride?

I wonder how patient both campaigns will be as this plays out.

Trump has already announced he will be sending in the lawyers, presumably to try and disqualify as many votes as possible.

And, exactly how does this support another Republican / conservative mantra? You must vote because so many of our military died to keep our right to vote? Seems like contradictory messages to me.

Speaking of the military...there are tons of votes that are not done in-person by the military. Trump and his lawyers' actions, if successful, will result in those military votes NOT being counted.

Vinny

[doodle]

What we are witnessing is a desperate no holds barred attempt by a megalomaniacally narcissistic maniac to overthrow democracy.

Ben Ginsberg who spent 40 years as an election lawyer representing the republican party had this to say

President Trump has failed the test of leadership. His bid for reelection is foundering. And his only solution has been to launch an all-out, multimillion-dollar effort to disenfranchise voters — first by seeking to block state laws to ease voting during the pandemic, and now, in the final stages of the campaign, by challenging the ballots of individual voters unlikely to support him.


This is as un-American as it gets. It returns the Republican Party to the bad old days of “voter suppression” that landed it under a court order to stop such tactics — an order lifted before this election. It puts the party on the wrong side of demographic changes in this country that threaten to make the GOP a permanent minority.

No matter how many people come out and say it, the religion of Trump is so captivating that some will never see it.

[glennds]

If the election is close, we may not know the winner on election night.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage

Reading this breakdown, what concerns me is the situations where one category of votes is reported first and then another category of votes is counted and reported separately. In states that are close, that practice could result in one presumptive winner, and then flip to the other a few days later. For example look at Alaska where in-person voting will be reported the day of the election but mail and absentee ballots a week later.
Maryland is the opposite. They are clear that results will not be available on election night, but then say that early in-person and mail ballots will be reported first.
Anyone else think this could get become a roller coaster ride?

I wonder how patient both campaigns will be as this plays out.

Trump has already announced he will be sending in the lawyers, presumably to try and disqualify as many votes as possible.

Well it is estimated that Donald Trump and his various affiliated entities have been party to an estimated 3500 lawsuits. That is a staggering number, and it's safe to say anyone THAT litigious would be to a lawsuit as a divining rod is to water.

The election tomorrow could be only the first round in an extended, excruciating ride. Here is one summary of possibilities:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... de/616424/

Van Jones put out a TED talk that covers some of the technical aspects to the voting process that could become factors this time around. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZWRhLW7Y8w. Some may associate him with CNN and question his objectivity, and if you are in that camp, you could still use the outline as a jumping off point to research further.

My point is there are a lot of ways this election could get complicated, and I think many of us take for granted the concession from one of the two candidates which usually brings the process to a close. If it were a decisive, or even a small but finalized Trump victory, I can see Biden conceding. If it were anything else, I cannot see Trump conceding under any circumstances. It is at that point that the voters and the populace may be sidelined which will be quite a sight in a so-called democracy.

[Ad Orientem]

What we are witnessing is a desperate no holds barred attempt by a megalomaniacally narcissistic maniac to overthrow democracy.

Ben Ginsberg who spent 40 years as an election lawyer representing the republican party had this to say

President Trump has failed the test of leadership. His bid for reelection is foundering. And his only solution has been to launch an all-out, multimillion-dollar effort to disenfranchise voters — first by seeking to block state laws to ease voting during the pandemic, and now, in the final stages of the campaign, by challenging the ballots of individual voters unlikely to support him.


This is as un-American as it gets. It returns the Republican Party to the bad old days of “voter suppression” that landed it under a court order to stop such tactics — an order lifted before this election. It puts the party on the wrong side of demographic changes in this country that threaten to make the GOP a permanent minority.

No matter how many people come out and say it, the religion of Trump is so captivating that some will never see it.

My only disagreement with the above is that Trump is not the leader of a religion. He is the leader of a cult.

[doodle]

If the election is close, we may not know the winner on election night.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage

Reading this breakdown, what concerns me is the situations where one category of votes is reported first and then another category of votes is counted and reported separately. In states that are close, that practice could result in one presumptive winner, and then flip to the other a few days later. For example look at Alaska where in-person voting will be reported the day of the election but mail and absentee ballots a week later.
Maryland is the opposite. They are clear that results will not be available on election night, but then say that early in-person and mail ballots will be reported first.
Anyone else think this could get become a roller coaster ride?

I wonder how patient both campaigns will be as this plays out.

Trump has already announced he will be sending in the lawyers, presumably to try and disqualify as many votes as possible.

Well it is estimated that Donald Trump and his various affiliated entities have been party to an estimated 3500 lawsuits. That is a staggering number, and it's safe to say anyone THAT litigious would be to a lawsuit as a divining rod is to water.

The election tomorrow could be only the first round in an extended, excruciating ride. Here is one summary of possibilities:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... de/616424/

Van Jones put out a TED talk that covers some of the technical aspects to the voting process that could become factors this time around. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZWRhLW7Y8w. Some may associate him with CNN and question his objectivity, and if you are in that camp, you could still use the outline as a jumping off point to research further.

My point is there are a lot of ways this election could get complicated, and I think many of us take for granted the concession from one of the two candidates which usually brings the process to a close. If it were a decisive, or even a small but finalized Trump victory, I can see Biden conceding. If it were anything else, I cannot see Trump conceding under any circumstances. It is at that point that the voters and the populace may be sidelined which will be quite a sight in a so-called democracy.

My fear is that an illegitimized election will lead to widespread lawlessness. I can see if Trump wins by a narrow margin after all the efforts that have been taken to disenfranchise voters that our population might simply split into two separate governments. It sounds completely nuts but I can see a route where this actually fractures our nations democracy completely. History is full of these types of situations. I wouldn't be surprised if our government literally crumbled.

[doodle]

dslzdgjonuw51.jpg (70.82 KiB) Viewed 3641 times

[vnatale]

Joe Biden leads President Trump by double digits nationally, USC poll suggests
NOV. 2, 20204 AM

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... -years-ago




Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by double digits nationally — 54% to 43% in the poll’s daily tracking, a margin that has remained almost unchanging since summer. Biden’s support has ticked down just slightly from the high it reached after the first debate between the two candidates in late September; but overall, the poll has barely budged since USC began its daily tracking of the race in August

[vnatale]

YOUR LAST CHANCE!!!!

Yes, your last chance to see Trump's last live rally prior to tomorrow's Election Day.

Right now on C-Span Pence is just starting to speak as warmup to the real event (Trump) coming out to speak.

Pence just reinforced that is only 80 minutes away from Election Day.


Vinny

[vnatale]

YOUR LAST CHANCE!!!!

Yes, your last chance to see Trump's last live rally prior to tomorrow's Election Day.

Right now on C-Span Pence is just starting to speak as warmup to the real event (Trump) coming out to speak.

Pence just reinforced that is only 80 minutes away from Election Day.


Vinny

He is running really late now!!! Still has not yet shown up!

Pence ran out of things to say.

Just heard an excellent song from the 80s! Now they are getting inexplicably playing "Fortunate Son". A favorite of mine but I guess most Trump people at rallies have no concept of the lyrics and Trump!

Vinny

[vnatale]

YOUR LAST CHANCE!!!!

Yes, your last chance to see Trump's last live rally prior to tomorrow's Election Day.

Right now on C-Span Pence is just starting to speak as warmup to the real event (Trump) coming out to speak.

Pence just reinforced that is only 80 minutes away from Election Day.


Vinny

He is running really late now!!! Still has not yet shown up!

Pence ran out of things to say.

Just heard an excellent song from the 80s! Now they are getting inexplicably playing "Fortunate Son". A favorite of mine but I guess most Trump people at rallies have no concept of the lyrics and Trump!

Vinny

STILL waiting for Trump to show up! Only six more minutes before it officially IS Election Day in Michigan!

Vinny