Some 2020 General Election Polls

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sophie
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Wed May 20, 2020 7:39 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 7:04 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:33 pm
Didn’t the polls going into the 2016 election suggest that Trump was going to lose, yet he won, suggesting that a lot of poll participants may have been embarrassed or just unwilling to openly admit that they planned to vote for Trump?

If so, what does that imply about these polls for the 2020 election?
I'm sure that 4 years of nonstop demonizing of Trump and anyone who supports him by the lamestream media wouldn't make anyone leery of admitting that they are planning to vote for him. ;)
That's definitely a thing. I know a number of people quietly planning to vote for Trump (and here in Manhattan, no less) but who would never admit it publicly - because they want to keep their social status and jobs/clients. Many of them are not in the classic Trump demographic, e.g. a retired woman with a state pension and liberal social views, a young gay hairstylist, the local neighborhood dog walker/cat sitter.

I think this figured into the 2016 election and was probably greater than a 1% bump. Ad is right, the results were nearly all within the margin of error cited by the polls. However don't you find it interesting that the errors all went the same way? If it were truly all due to unbiased polling error, half the states (on average) should have gone the other way, and Clinton would have won. That's why she was projected as the winner with such confidence.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 8:21 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:26 am
vnatale wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 pm
Another piece of evidence supporting Trump's landslide 2020 re-election?

https://t.co/j4in1NpRm9?amp=1

The Commander in Chief’s Following Wanes

I repeat my postulation that he has gained no new voters and has lost many who prior voted him. NOT a good sign when a Republican loses military support? What is the last Republican president to which this has happened?

Vinny
You should have mentioned that this was from The New York Times. They will say or do anything to stop Trump from being re-elected.

If a NYT article said there were 50 states, I would confirm that with a more reliable source.

Even a recent CNN poll shows Trump crushing Biden in the battleground states: https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/sta ... 0289727490.

If CNN says he's way ahead, you can count on his being at least that far ahead. As CNN is also extremely biased against Trump, any good news they report for him is something they just can't figure out how to ignore.
Except it was an Opinion piece in the New York Times. Not an article written by someone on their staff. And, it did cite plenty of survey results from a survey independent from the New York Times.

But you are free to maintain your own set of biases.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 8:23 am

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:39 am


I think this figured into the 2016 election and was probably greater than a 1% bump. Ad is right, the results were nearly all within the margin of error cited by the polls. However don't you find it interesting that the errors all went the same way? If it were truly all due to unbiased polling error, half the states (on average) should have gone the other way, and Clinton would have won. That's why she was projected as the winner with such confidence.
This was an exact sample of one?

And, this one could have been an outlier?

In other words, if we had ten similar elections then, maybe, it would have averaged out to half the states going each way.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 9:43 am

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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Wed May 20, 2020 10:28 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 8:23 am
sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:39 am


I think this figured into the 2016 election and was probably greater than a 1% bump. Ad is right, the results were nearly all within the margin of error cited by the polls. However don't you find it interesting that the errors all went the same way? If it were truly all due to unbiased polling error, half the states (on average) should have gone the other way, and Clinton would have won. That's why she was projected as the winner with such confidence.
This was an exact sample of one?

And, this one could have been an outlier?

In other words, if we had ten similar elections then, maybe, it would have averaged out to half the states going each way.

Vinny
Vinny, last I checked there were 50 states. If you're trying to counter what I said above please make a relevant argument?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 10:48 am

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 10:28 am
vnatale wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 8:23 am
sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:39 am


I think this figured into the 2016 election and was probably greater than a 1% bump. Ad is right, the results were nearly all within the margin of error cited by the polls. However don't you find it interesting that the errors all went the same way? If it were truly all due to unbiased polling error, half the states (on average) should have gone the other way, and Clinton would have won. That's why she was projected as the winner with such confidence.
This was an exact sample of one?

And, this one could have been an outlier?

In other words, if we had ten similar elections then, maybe, it would have averaged out to half the states going each way.

Vinny
Vinny, last I checked there were 50 states. If you're trying to counter what I said above please make a relevant argument?
Yes, 50 states but still a sample of one of what occurred on the average with those 50 states.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Wed May 20, 2020 10:51 am

Nope. The polls in question were state-specific.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 11:14 am

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 10:51 am
Nope. The polls in question were state-specific.
I know that.

Forgive me if I'm wrong but am I correct that you basically wrote / said: Why did all the specific state polls end up going all one way rather than half of them going one way and the other half going the other way?

Is that what you said? If so, good question.

What I'm saying is that what you described occurred in ONE election. And, that if one examined how these specific state polls resulted in TEN similar election then maybe it would have averaged out to half and half rather the totally skewed results (as you pointed out) for the 2016 election. And, then, perhaps, 2016 would have been viewed as an outlier which does occur among overall average results.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Wed May 20, 2020 5:05 pm

Did you ever take a probability class Vinnie?

Flip a fair coin 10 times and tell me what the chances are of all of them coming up heads.

But hey, it's just one session of coin flipping so that doesn't count right?

Unless you are saying that an event with a probability on the order of 0.01% (i.e 1/1024, which is the answer to the above question) is a completely expected result that in no way should indicate that anything is wrong?

Whenever you'd like to join us here on planet Earth, we'll be here waiting.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by stuper1 » Wed May 20, 2020 5:35 pm

I think he's forgotten what 2016 looked like. All we read was 12 months of articles telling us that Trump wouldn't win, right up to 5 minutes before the returns came in.

It won't be any different this time. I'm not saying for sure that Trump will win. But for sure, the media will tell us that he can't win because that's what they want us to believe. It's going to be a long 6 months especially if every single article gets linked from this forum.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Tortoise » Wed May 20, 2020 5:50 pm

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 5:05 pm
[Vinny, ] Whenever you'd like to join us here on planet Earth, we'll be here waiting.
Image

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/vinnys ... 1105803559
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Wed May 20, 2020 7:20 pm

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 5:05 pm
Did you ever take a probability class Vinnie?

Flip a fair coin 10 times and tell me what the chances are of all of them coming up heads.

But hey, it's just one session of coin flipping so that doesn't count right?

Unless you are saying that an event with a probability on the order of 0.01% (i.e 1/1024, which is the answer to the above question) is a completely expected result that in no way should indicate that anything is wrong?

Whenever you'd like to join us here on planet Earth, we'll be here waiting.
I look at it as being similar to a baseball player's season with a lot of randomness. If a player hits .300 over 500 at bats that does not mean that for each of the ten slices of 50 at bats that compose that 500 at bat season he hits .300 on the nose for all those slices. Without doing any research on this, I'm guessing there could have been a 50 at bat slice where he hit .450 and another one where he hit .150. He was the same intrinsic .300 hitter for all the slices but those outlier slices are just the way the probabilities played out for those disparate outcome slices.

You seem to posit that there was no randomness to what happened in 2016. That what you seem to believe would only have occurred with a .01% probability if totally random, instead, happened for a reason. What is this reason? And, you'd hold that the same results would have resulted if the election had instead taken place on either of the five days leading up to the election or any of the five days after the actual election date?

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed May 20, 2020 7:36 pm

sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 5:05 pm
Did you ever take a probability class Vinnie?

Flip a fair coin 10 times and tell me what the chances are of all of them coming up heads.

But hey, it's just one session of coin flipping so that doesn't count right?

Unless you are saying that an event with a probability on the order of 0.01% (i.e 1/1024, which is the answer to the above question) is a completely expected result that in no way should indicate that anything is wrong?

Whenever you'd like to join us here on planet Earth, we'll be here waiting.
I wouldn't hold my breath.
TDS is a debilitating disorder that renders otherwise sensible people blind to reality.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Thu May 21, 2020 9:48 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 7:20 pm
sophie wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 5:05 pm
Did you ever take a probability class Vinnie?

Flip a fair coin 10 times and tell me what the chances are of all of them coming up heads.

But hey, it's just one session of coin flipping so that doesn't count right?

Unless you are saying that an event with a probability on the order of 0.01% (i.e 1/1024, which is the answer to the above question) is a completely expected result that in no way should indicate that anything is wrong?

Whenever you'd like to join us here on planet Earth, we'll be here waiting.
I look at it as being similar to a baseball player's season with a lot of randomness. If a player hits .300 over 500 at bats that does not mean that for each of the ten slices of 50 at bats that compose that 500 at bat season he hits .300 on the nose for all those slices. Without doing any research on this, I'm guessing there could have been a 50 at bat slice where he hit .450 and another one where he hit .150. He was the same intrinsic .300 hitter for all the slices but those outlier slices are just the way the probabilities played out for those disparate outcome slices.

You seem to posit that there was no randomness to what happened in 2016. That what you seem to believe would only have occurred with a .01% probability if totally random, instead, happened for a reason. What is this reason? And, you'd hold that the same results would have resulted if the election had instead taken place on either of the five days leading up to the election or any of the five days after the actual election date?

Vinny
Vinny, you will believe what you want to believe, although I'm not quite clear what exactly you are trying to promote here. One last shot. My answers to your questions in the last paragraph above are: No, yes, exactly, and irrelevant.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu May 21, 2020 4:25 pm

General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 42, Trump 41 Biden +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden DFP Biden 48, Trump 40 Biden +8
Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 55, Biden 39 Trump +16
Michigan: Trump vs Biden PPP (D) Trump 45, Biden 51 Biden +6
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sat May 23, 2020 11:39 pm

Fox News Poll: Biden more trusted on coronavirus, Trump on economy


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... on-economy
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun May 24, 2020 8:46 pm

General Election: Mason Dixon Polling- Biden 49%, Trump 44%- Biden +5
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun May 24, 2020 8:50 pm

Could Trump try to disrupt or invalidate the general election?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/24/us/p ... e=Homepage
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sun May 24, 2020 9:08 pm

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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon May 25, 2020 6:46 am

vnatale wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 9:08 pm
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Ann Coulter is the Howard Stern of politics, not a serious analyst.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:43 pm

General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 53, Trump 47 Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth Biden 52, Trump 41 Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 47, Trump 40 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 53, Trump 43 Biden +10
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 46, Trump 50 Trump +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 45, Trump 45 Tie
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 44, Trump 45 Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Civitas/Harper (R) Biden 44, Trump 47 Trump +3
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 44, Biden 43 Trump +1
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Jun 03, 2020 9:07 pm

Trump Campaign Looks at Electoral Map and Doesn’t Like What It Sees

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/us/p ... e=Homepage
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:35 pm

General Election: Marist Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7
Texas: PPP Biden 48, Trump 48 Tie
Iowa: PPP Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:15 pm

General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 47, Trump 37 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 55, Trump 41 Biden +14
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Biden 47, Trump 37 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Garrin Hart Yang Biden 53, Trump 41 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Optimus Biden 53, Trump 42 Biden +11


Iowa: Trump vs. Biden Civiqs Biden 46, Trump 46 Tie
Michigan : Trump vs. Biden MRA Biden 53, Trump 41, Biden +12
Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden RMG Biden 36, Trump 53 Trump +17
Tennessee: Trump vs Biden SSRS Biden 42, Trump 51 Trump +9
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:54 am

General election: Optimus- Biden 52, Trump 43 Biden +9
General election: Rasmussen- Biden 48, Trump 36 Biden +12
General election: Morning Consult- Biden 48, Trump 39 Biden +9


AZ: Civiqs- Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
AR: Hendrix- Biden 45, Trump 47 Trump +2
GA: PPP- Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
NM: PPP- Biden 53, Trump 39 Biden +14
MI: TIPP- Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
MI: EPIC- Biden 55, Trump 39 Biden +16
FL: TIPP- Biden 50, Trump 40 Biden +10
IA: Selzer- Biden 43, Trump 44 Trump +1

# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error
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