Fake news. When are they going to come out with the real polls?Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:02 pm Polls from the last 7 days.
General Election: Trump vs. Biden The Hill/HarrisX Biden 45, Trump 38 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden ABC News/Wash Post Biden 54, Trump 44 Biden +10
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden GQR Biden 55, Trump 44 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Trump 44, Biden 45 Biden +1
# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error
Some 2020 General Election Polls
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
100 Days Out: Biden Solidifies Role as Favorite; Democrats On Course To Win Senate Narrowly
by Cliston Brown | Jul 26, 2020 | Election Analysis |
http://clistonbrown.com/2020/07/26/100- ... -narrowly/
by Cliston Brown | Jul 26, 2020 | Election Analysis |
http://clistonbrown.com/2020/07/26/100- ... -narrowly/
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
As usual, sorry about the formatting. Best to get to the article, if you can.
Vinny
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-polli ... ?mod=e2twp
What Polling Can Tell Us 100 Days From the Election
Joe Biden has maintained steady lead over President Trump, but will it hold up?
Biden’s lead over Trump has been
unusually large and stable
Size of lead,
pct. pts.
15
10
5
DEM.
REP.
300
days before the election
200
100
2020
2016
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
Note: Moving average of polls, based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin
By
July 26, 2020 9:00 am ET
Print
Text
The 2020 presidential election marks an important milestone Sunday as the race enters its final 100 days. Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, Joe Biden and President Trump have been mostly derailed from conducting the kind of campaigns voters have come to expect.
How that ultimately will factor into the outcome is unclear, but recent polling has provided encouraging news for the Democratic challenger.
In the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by nearly nine points. That is the largest such gap at this point in the cycle by any candidate since President Clinton’s re-election campaign in 1996, based on historical poll averages compiled by political scientists Robert S. Erikson of Columbia University and Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin. (Their methodology for computing historical daily poll averages differs somewhat from that of Real Clear Politics, but the data provide a reasonable baseline for comparing the current race.)
How poll averages have fluctuated during the period 100–200 days
before the election
80
%
Democrat
Republican
High during
this period: 67%
70
Actual share
of the vote
60
50
40
Low:
40%
30
20
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Note: Based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
But perhaps more remarkable than the spread between the candidates has been the stability of the race thus far. Messrs. Biden and Trump have both polled in an unusually narrow range, with average support for each varying by only a few points in the past six months.
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In addition, the high end of Mr. Trump’s range hasn’t ever matched Mr. Biden’s polling floor to date. That hasn’t happened this close to Election Day since Sen. Bob Dole trailed far behind Mr. Clinton in 1996. Moreover, since 1992, the final national popular vote has nearly always fallen within the range of poll averages during the period between 100 and 200 days out.
Popular-vote winner’s polling at this point in the campaign vs. actual vote share
Actual share
of the vote
Trump’s current
polling support
Vote share in November
was higher than polling
at this point
70
%
65
Vote share
was lower
1964
1972
60
1984
1952
1980
1956
1996
55
1988
2008
2012
1992
1976
2016
2004
50
1968
2000
1960
45
40
Poll average 100 days before the election
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
%
Note: Average of polls; all data based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
The correlation between average poll standings at this point in the campaign and the final national popular vote is fairly strong. Nearly all of the outliers were candidates who were registering north of 60% of the two-party vote in poll averages 100 days out. Those eventual winners saw their support dampen a bit by Election Day, but most still won by comfortable margins.
Mr. Trump’s share of the two-party vote currently sits just above 45%, lower than any eventual popular-vote winner since 1988. But it is worth noting that then-Vice President George H.W. Bush overcame the biggest 100-day deficit of an eventual winner—nearly 20 points—thanks to a series of missteps by opponent Michael Dukakis and a hard-hitting ad campaign attacking the Democratic nominee.
Moreover, two popular-vote winners in the last 20 years lost in the Electoral College vote: Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Polling averages and results in the closest states of 2016
2016
100 days out
current
Biden lead
final poll avg.
Michigan
actual
result
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
8
6
4
2
Dem. lead
Rep. lead
2
points
Source: Real Clear Politics; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
That popular vote/electoral vote split might be the most enduring lesson of 2016. While national polls were among the most accurate in estimating the popular vote since 1936—the final Real Clear Politics average gave Mrs. Clinton a 3.2-point advantage, while her actual popular-vote margin was 2.1 points—Mr. Trump emerged victorious thanks to narrow wins in key states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And state polls there missed the mark for various reasons.
However, in at least two of those states—Michigan and Pennsylvania—Mr. Biden’s current lead in poll averages is more than double what Mrs. Clinton’s was at the same point in time. That should be a sign of concern for the Trump campaign, since he won those three states by a combined 77,744 votes—just over one-half of 1% of the trio’s aggregate vote total.
Vinny
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-polli ... ?mod=e2twp
What Polling Can Tell Us 100 Days From the Election
Joe Biden has maintained steady lead over President Trump, but will it hold up?
Biden’s lead over Trump has been
unusually large and stable
Size of lead,
pct. pts.
15
10
5
DEM.
REP.
300
days before the election
200
100
2020
2016
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
Note: Moving average of polls, based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin
By
July 26, 2020 9:00 am ET
Text
The 2020 presidential election marks an important milestone Sunday as the race enters its final 100 days. Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, Joe Biden and President Trump have been mostly derailed from conducting the kind of campaigns voters have come to expect.
How that ultimately will factor into the outcome is unclear, but recent polling has provided encouraging news for the Democratic challenger.
In the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by nearly nine points. That is the largest such gap at this point in the cycle by any candidate since President Clinton’s re-election campaign in 1996, based on historical poll averages compiled by political scientists Robert S. Erikson of Columbia University and Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin. (Their methodology for computing historical daily poll averages differs somewhat from that of Real Clear Politics, but the data provide a reasonable baseline for comparing the current race.)
How poll averages have fluctuated during the period 100–200 days
before the election
80
%
Democrat
Republican
High during
this period: 67%
70
Actual share
of the vote
60
50
40
Low:
40%
30
20
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Note: Based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
But perhaps more remarkable than the spread between the candidates has been the stability of the race thus far. Messrs. Biden and Trump have both polled in an unusually narrow range, with average support for each varying by only a few points in the past six months.
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In addition, the high end of Mr. Trump’s range hasn’t ever matched Mr. Biden’s polling floor to date. That hasn’t happened this close to Election Day since Sen. Bob Dole trailed far behind Mr. Clinton in 1996. Moreover, since 1992, the final national popular vote has nearly always fallen within the range of poll averages during the period between 100 and 200 days out.
Popular-vote winner’s polling at this point in the campaign vs. actual vote share
Actual share
of the vote
Trump’s current
polling support
Vote share in November
was higher than polling
at this point
70
%
65
Vote share
was lower
1964
1972
60
1984
1952
1980
1956
1996
55
1988
2008
2012
1992
1976
2016
2004
50
1968
2000
1960
45
40
Poll average 100 days before the election
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
%
Note: Average of polls; all data based on share of the two-party vote
Sources: Real Clear Politics; Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University, and Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
The correlation between average poll standings at this point in the campaign and the final national popular vote is fairly strong. Nearly all of the outliers were candidates who were registering north of 60% of the two-party vote in poll averages 100 days out. Those eventual winners saw their support dampen a bit by Election Day, but most still won by comfortable margins.
Mr. Trump’s share of the two-party vote currently sits just above 45%, lower than any eventual popular-vote winner since 1988. But it is worth noting that then-Vice President George H.W. Bush overcame the biggest 100-day deficit of an eventual winner—nearly 20 points—thanks to a series of missteps by opponent Michael Dukakis and a hard-hitting ad campaign attacking the Democratic nominee.
Moreover, two popular-vote winners in the last 20 years lost in the Electoral College vote: Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Polling averages and results in the closest states of 2016
2016
100 days out
current
Biden lead
final poll avg.
Michigan
actual
result
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
8
6
4
2
Dem. lead
Rep. lead
2
points
Source: Real Clear Politics; Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
That popular vote/electoral vote split might be the most enduring lesson of 2016. While national polls were among the most accurate in estimating the popular vote since 1936—the final Real Clear Politics average gave Mrs. Clinton a 3.2-point advantage, while her actual popular-vote margin was 2.1 points—Mr. Trump emerged victorious thanks to narrow wins in key states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And state polls there missed the mark for various reasons.
However, in at least two of those states—Michigan and Pennsylvania—Mr. Biden’s current lead in poll averages is more than double what Mrs. Clinton’s was at the same point in time. That should be a sign of concern for the Trump campaign, since he won those three states by a combined 77,744 votes—just over one-half of 1% of the trio’s aggregate vote total.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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This is why polls mean nothing
"Self-censorship is on the rise according to a new Cato Institute survey that reports nearly two-thirds of Americans are afraid to share their political views.
A new CATO Institute/YouGov national survey found 62% of Americans say the political climate today prevents them from saying what they believe. This is up several points from 2017 when 58% of Americans said they were afraid to share their political beliefs."
https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/22/walk ... iews-cato/
A new CATO Institute/YouGov national survey found 62% of Americans say the political climate today prevents them from saying what they believe. This is up several points from 2017 when 58% of Americans said they were afraid to share their political beliefs."
https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/22/walk ... iews-cato/
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Polls from the last seven days sorted alphabetically and by date (most recent on top)
General Election: Trump vs. Biden DFP Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IPSOS Biden 57, Trump 43 Biden +14
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Harvard-Harris Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
Alaska: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 44, Trump 50 Trump +6
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 49, Trump 42 Biden +7
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 52, Trump 39 Biden+13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden MC Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Trump 48, Biden 47 Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Biden 50, Trump 38 Biden +12
Massachusetts: Trump vs. Biden MassINC Biden 55, Trump 23 Biden +32
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden TargetPoint Biden 49, Trump 33 Biden +16
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 46, Trump 42 Biden +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 52, Trump 40 Biden +12
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden UNH Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Marist Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Ohio:Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 45, Trump 46 Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 50, Trump 42 Biden +8
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Franklin & Marshall Biden 50, Trump 41 Biden +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden ALG Research Biden 45, Trump 50 Trump +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden VCU Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Washington: Trump vs. Biden KING-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 62, Trump 28 Biden +34
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5
# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error +/- 3
General Election: Trump vs. Biden DFP Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 48, Trump 41 Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IPSOS Biden 57, Trump 43 Biden +14
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 40 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D)* Biden 51, Trump 42 Biden +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Harvard-Harris Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
Alaska: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 44, Trump 50 Trump +6
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 49, Trump 42 Biden +7
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5
Colorado: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 52, Trump 39 Biden+13
Florida: Trump vs. Biden Mason-Dixon Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 45 Biden +3
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden MC Trump 47, Biden 48 Biden +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Trump 48, Biden 47 Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 47, Trump 48 Trump +1
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Colby College Biden 50, Trump 38 Biden +12
Massachusetts: Trump vs. Biden MassINC Biden 55, Trump 23 Biden +32
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden TargetPoint Biden 49, Trump 33 Biden +16
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 46, Trump 42 Biden +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 52, Trump 40 Biden +12
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 49, Trump 44 Biden +5
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden UNH Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Marist Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Ohio:Trump vs. Biden CBS News/YouGov Biden 45, Trump 46 Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 50, Trump 42 Biden +8
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Franklin & Marshall Biden 50, Trump 41 Biden +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 46 Biden +2
South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden ALG Research Biden 45, Trump 50 Trump +5
Texas: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden VCU Biden 50, Trump 39 Biden +11
Washington: Trump vs. Biden KING-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 62, Trump 28 Biden +34
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden MC Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5
# = Biden
# = Trump
# = Within generally accepted margin of error +/- 3
- vnatale
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
What predictability reliability would you place in either of these?
https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election
Vinny
https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I've got about $10K in predict it, just to make watching the elections more interesting in a few months. I put it in about 6 months ago and haven't touched it since.
I don't know how accurate those maps are, but I hope "not very" as they don't match up with where my money is.
I don't know how accurate those maps are, but I hope "not very" as they don't match up with where my money is.
- Mark Leavy
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
So for grins, here is what I have riding at Predict It. These are all the max $850 dollar bets. I've put them in order sorted by how far I am in the red.
Note that these bets don't reflect any personal preference on my part, they just represent what I thought the most likely outcome would be when I placed them.
Will the 2020 Democratic nominee for president be a woman? YES. Not looking so good there.
Which party will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? I voted YES on Republican, NO on all of the other parties.
Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? I voted YES on Trump, NO on all of the other candidates.
Will the 2020 Democratic nominee for president be 70+ on Election Day? NO. Not looking good here either.
Will Donald Trump complete his first term? YES
Will the 2020 Republican nominee for president be a woman? NO
Will Hillary Clinton run for president in 2020? NO
Who will win the 2020 Republican presidential nomination? YES on Trump, NO on everyone else.
Will Donald Trump be the 2020 Republican nominee for president? YES
Will Michelle Obama run for president in 2020? NO
Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2020? NO
Note that these bets don't reflect any personal preference on my part, they just represent what I thought the most likely outcome would be when I placed them.
Will the 2020 Democratic nominee for president be a woman? YES. Not looking so good there.
Which party will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? I voted YES on Republican, NO on all of the other parties.
Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? I voted YES on Trump, NO on all of the other candidates.
Will the 2020 Democratic nominee for president be 70+ on Election Day? NO. Not looking good here either.
Will Donald Trump complete his first term? YES
Will the 2020 Republican nominee for president be a woman? NO
Will Hillary Clinton run for president in 2020? NO
Who will win the 2020 Republican presidential nomination? YES on Trump, NO on everyone else.
Will Donald Trump be the 2020 Republican nominee for president? YES
Will Michelle Obama run for president in 2020? NO
Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2020? NO
- vnatale
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
A few responses:Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:56 am I've got about $10K in predict it, just to make watching the elections more interesting in a few months. I put it in about 6 months ago and haven't touched it since.
I don't know how accurate those maps are, but I hope "not very" as they don't match up with where my money is.
1) I assume the actual $ betting is anonymous. Therefore there would be no fear for Trump voters of being exposed and that, therefore, this could be a true view of how many Trump voters there are? Assuming both Biden and Trump votes are equally disposed to placing actual $$$ bets?
2) Do you put more, less, or equal validity in this where people are actually voting their money compared to all other methods of polling? Would this form of betting be skewed towards any particular demographics which would lean towards voting overall either left or right?
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- vnatale
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Obviously missed the mark!!!Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:46 amI can't find a snapshot of predictit.com on November 6th, 2016, but for 270towin, I give it exactly as much reliability as this prediction suggests:vnatale wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:51 am What predictability reliability would you place in either of these?
https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit ... ction-odds
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election
Vinny
https://www.270towin.com/2016-election- ... edictions/
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- Mark Leavy
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
In theory, betting markets should be about as accurate as you can get because the folks with inside knowledge can make a killing - and large dollar bets show up in the odds.vnatale wrote: ↑Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:44 am A few responses:
1) I assume the actual $ betting is anonymous. Therefore there would be no fear for Trump voters of being exposed and that, therefore, this could be a true view of how many Trump voters there are? Assuming both Biden and Trump votes are equally disposed to placing actual $$$ bets?
2) Do you put more, less, or equal validity in this where people are actually voting their money compared to all other methods of polling? Would this form of betting be skewed towards any particular demographics which would lean towards voting overall either left or right?
Vinny
Unfortunately, predict it has so much friction built into it, I think it reflects personal preferences more than informed predictions. Bet sizes are limited, they take a huge percentage of any wins, the spreads are outrageous and they take another piece of your money when you take it out. The net effect is that the market isn't efficient. And since no serious money is at play, the people with inside knowledge can't sway the market any more than the random internet pontificator can. So... more fun than useful. Too bad, as it could be a useful tool.
And yes, the users are anonymous. Or at least as anonymous as anyone else trusting a website with their banking information.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
That thumbnail image of Trump... LOL
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Dan Bongino: Sources Say Joe Biden Is Reaching the Point of No Return, Democrats Will Have a Decision to Make
https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/0 ... n-to-make/
https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/0 ... n-to-make/
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
The decision has already been made: Hillary.vnatale wrote: ↑Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:32 pm Dan Bongino: Sources Say Joe Biden Is Reaching the Point of No Return, Democrats Will Have a Decision to Make
https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/0 ... n-to-make/
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I'm thinking Michelle. Lord have mercy!Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:05 amThe decision has already been made: Hillary.vnatale wrote: ↑Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:32 pm Dan Bongino: Sources Say Joe Biden Is Reaching the Point of No Return, Democrats Will Have a Decision to Make
https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/0 ... n-to-make/
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I was talking about the Presidential candidate, not VP.Mountaineer wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:12 amI'm thinking Michelle. Lord have mercy!Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:05 amThe decision has already been made: Hillary.vnatale wrote: ↑Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:32 pm Dan Bongino: Sources Say Joe Biden Is Reaching the Point of No Return, Democrats Will Have a Decision to Make
https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2020/0 ... n-to-make/
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I'm surprised Michelle Obama isn't on the list of VP hopefuls. I thought the main qualification was a warm body with XX chromosomes only and majority African descent. If I were the Democrats I'd look at high profile black females outside of politics, preferably in business, to counter Trump's strength which is in the economy and also avoid the political baggage carried by all the current VP candidates. The Democrats can't possibly lose the racial-justice-crazy vote, so why pander to them?
The polls are truly irrelevant right now. This is going to be the shortest Presidential campaign in a century, since the convention is going to be little more than a Zoom meeting with a brief Biden cameo, and the first debate isn't until September 29. Kind of refreshing to have a 1.25 month, focused campaign actually. It's probably why Trump is holding up his ads & rallies...he's effectively campaigning against a portrait of an imaginary, idealized candidate right now, and that's always going to look better than someone who is out there making difficult decisions and getting criticized for them. There's nothing to criticize about Biden right now, because he is neither doing or saying anything of substance.
The polls are truly irrelevant right now. This is going to be the shortest Presidential campaign in a century, since the convention is going to be little more than a Zoom meeting with a brief Biden cameo, and the first debate isn't until September 29. Kind of refreshing to have a 1.25 month, focused campaign actually. It's probably why Trump is holding up his ads & rallies...he's effectively campaigning against a portrait of an imaginary, idealized candidate right now, and that's always going to look better than someone who is out there making difficult decisions and getting criticized for them. There's nothing to criticize about Biden right now, because he is neither doing or saying anything of substance.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
One word: Beyoncé!
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
You basically narrowed it down to Oprah
Last edited by glennds on Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
If the Kremlin releases a forecast, I would take that one to the bank.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
I searched a bit and found a list of black women in high profile executive positions. Rather interesting that all of you thought that "outside politics" meant entertainers. Turns out there are black women executives on Wall Street and in Forbes 500 companies.
If I were a moderate looking to vote Democratic, I'd be way happier with a Wall Street exec in the VP position than with someone like Kamala Harris. In fact, if the party went in that direction I'd give that vote some serious consideration.
If I were a moderate looking to vote Democratic, I'd be way happier with a Wall Street exec in the VP position than with someone like Kamala Harris. In fact, if the party went in that direction I'd give that vote some serious consideration.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
What about the former Orlando police chief? Val Demings. Definitely "in politics", but maybe would give ol' Joe some anti-rioting cred?sophie wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:22 pm I searched a bit and found a list of black women in high profile executive positions. Rather interesting that all of you thought that "outside politics" meant entertainers. Turns out there are black women executives on Wall Street and in Forbes 500 companies.
If I were a moderate looking to vote Democratic, I'd be way happier with a Wall Street exec in the VP position than with someone like Kamala Harris. In fact, if the party went in that direction I'd give that vote some serious consideration.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
She's been many times mentioned as a possibility.Xan wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:43 pmWhat about the former Orlando police chief? Val Demings. Definitely "in politics", but maybe would give ol' Joe some anti-rioting cred?sophie wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:22 pm I searched a bit and found a list of black women in high profile executive positions. Rather interesting that all of you thought that "outside politics" meant entertainers. Turns out there are black women executives on Wall Street and in Forbes 500 companies.
If I were a moderate looking to vote Democratic, I'd be way happier with a Wall Street exec in the VP position than with someone like Kamala Harris. In fact, if the party went in that direction I'd give that vote some serious consideration.
VInny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."