Some 2020 General Election Polls

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pmward
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm

It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
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vnatale
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Mon May 18, 2020 9:23 pm

pugchief wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:00 pm
technovelist wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:37 pm

I predict that Biden won't be the nominee. The most likely way they will fix it is to pick someone else at the convention.
Anyone want to guess who it's going to be? Hint: initials are HRC.
This has been mentioned before on this board. I just don't see how HRC can be the nominee when she didn't participate in the primaries. Same for Cuomo. Please explain how this can be rationalized without, say, Bernie or Warren supporters' heads exploding.
I thought if nobody had a majority, the delegates could meet and nominate anyone they wanted to. Seems almost more fair to pick somebody who didn't run rather than somebody who ran and didn't come in first.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon May 18, 2020 9:24 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
I started laughing when I read that as my response was "I think you are missing a digit" as I'd describe it as 10 to 20, not one or two! But that's just my impression, thinking there are at least 90 to 95% Trump voters here. I'm sure, however, that there are polls here regarding this, one not that long ago. I don't remember that many participants in that last one.

Vinny

Vinny

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Mon May 18, 2020 9:26 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:24 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:59 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:04 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:50 pm
It is indeed hard to beat an incumbent. But Trump is a bit of a special case. Never before in history have we had a president that was anything close to this polarizing. Trump's entire term has been a roller coaster. Trump's actions have polarized a lot of swing voters and people that normally wouldn't vote to vote "not Trump" regardless of who he is up against. I've said this here before, but Trump's biggest threat is himself. If he loses, it really is him losing not the other guy winning.
I know he has his base who would never ever NOT vote for him. However, I don't see how he's done anything to attract ANY new voters or how he holds on to all who voted for him but are not part of his base.

In other words, I can only see him getting less votes than he did the first time around while the Democrats are going to out in force this time to vote for whoever is the candidate just to get rid of him.

Vinny
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
I started laughing when I read that as my response was "I think you are missing a digit" as I'd describe it as 10 to 20, not one or two! But that's just my impression, thinking there are at least 90 to 95% Trump voters here. I'm sure, however, that there are polls here regarding this, one not that long ago. I don't remember that many participants in that last one.

Vinny

Vinny

Vinny
Oh I'm sure most people here will vote for him. But their actual opinion of him seems mixed from what I can tell. Voting for someone doesn't mean you fully support them, it just means you prefer them over the next guy.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Mon May 18, 2020 10:00 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:26 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 9:24 pm
Yeah, he does have a very fanatic base, but they are not enough to re-elect him on his own. Even on this board, which is conservative by any measure, I really only see one or two die hard followers, and the rest have mixed views about him. I'm not sure he has even truly won over the conservatives. I think the general opinion about him amongst conservatives is less than it was 4 years ago.
I started laughing when I read that as my response was "I think you are missing a digit" as I'd describe it as 10 to 20, not one or two! But that's just my impression, thinking there are at least 90 to 95% Trump voters here. I'm sure, however, that there are polls here regarding this, one not that long ago. I don't remember that many participants in that last one.

Vinny

[/quote]

Oh I'm sure most people here will vote for him. But their actual opinion of him seems mixed from what I can tell. Voting for someone doesn't mean you fully support them, it just means you prefer them over the next guy.
[/quote]

I get a different impression. I sense a lot more solid than mixed. I detect little mix. But your perception / impression may be better than mine is on this. I may be too sensitive to what I read on this topic.

Vinny
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am

Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.

Trump is like your garrulous old uncle who you hate to invite over for Thanksgiving because he drives everyone nuts. Despite the irresponsible utterances, in many ways his instincts are right. When it comes to voting, you have to look past the fluff and pick the party that you think will best represent your interests. IMHO Trump's twitter habit and lack of brain to mouth filter rate as mild annoyances compared to the inestimable damage that parts of the Democratic platform would inflict if they gained power. Open borders, the wealth tax, the Green new deal, the erosion of free speech and other liberties...are you sure you can swallow all that???
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by l82start » Tue May 19, 2020 9:21 am

"Ghislaine Maxwell didn't kill herself"

“The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.” ― George Orwell.”
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Tue May 19, 2020 9:26 am

sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.
That's a pretty good guess as to the reason, because it certainly isn't true. One or two die-hard supporters is probably fair to say.

sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
IMHO Trump's twitter habit and lack of brain to mouth filter rate as mild annoyances compared to the inestimable damage that parts of the Democratic platform would inflict if they gained power. Open borders, the wealth tax, the Green new deal, the erosion of free speech and other liberties...are you sure you can swallow all that???
Not only all that, but a big one for me is judge appointments, particularly on the Supreme Court. Any Dem is going to appoint people who think it's a judge's job to make things up as he goes along, when of course the truth is the opposite.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pugchief » Tue May 19, 2020 9:49 am

Xan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:26 am
sophie wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:15 am
Vinny, that's because there has been a concerted effort to condition you to instantly label anyone who says anything even remotely positive about Trump as a Trump die-hard fanatic deplorable probably KKK member/Nazi sympathizer/white supremacist etc.
That's a pretty good guess as to the reason, because it certainly isn't true. One or two die-hard supporters is probably fair to say.
I would agree.

Vinny, why don't you tell us who here you think is a die-hard Trump fan and then let them respond?
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by sophie » Tue May 19, 2020 10:17 am

I'm sure I'm up there on Vinny's list. I agree with everything people like Ad and Dualstow have said about Trump's "alternative facts", temper tantrums in the White House, irresponsible statements and use of Twitter etc. I just don't think those are as important as other considerations.

And btw some more serious issues I have with the Democratic party: the rise of identity politics which is the ugliest social development we have had as a nation since slavery & Jim Crow. And globalism which has been incredibly destructive for the middle class plus look where it got us during this pandemic, with no ability to manufacture even simple essential items.
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