Some 2020 General Election Polls

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Ad Orientem
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Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun May 03, 2020 1:37 pm

Recent polls in Trump v Biden...

Florida: Biden +3
Pennsylvania: Biden +6
Michigan: Biden +8
North Carolina: Biden +5
Minnesota: No polling data within last 30 days. Last poll Biden +12
Arizona: Biden +9
Wisconsin: No polling data within last 30 days. Last poll Biden +3
Texas: Two polls released within 72hrs of each other First Biden +1 / Second tie.
New Hampshire: Biden +8
Utah: Trump +19
New York: Biden +36
New Jersey: Biden +16
Indiana: Trump +13
Virginia: Biden +10
Ohio: No polling data within last 30 days. Last poll Biden +4

All polls cited are most recently available and unless otherwise indicated, are within the last 30 days. Generally polls with margins greater than 5% are considered outside the margin of error.:

P.S. Edit: It's six months to the general election. That's a long time in politics. But these numbers should be a wake up for team Trump. If the election were this Tuesday, Biden would win, probably in a landslide.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Sun May 03, 2020 1:58 pm

(Ad, I took the liberty of flipping the colors... Let me know if the other way was really what you intended.)

Looks pretty scary to me. Why is Biden doing so well in Arizona? I think that's the biggest surprise here.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun May 03, 2020 2:15 pm

Xan wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 1:58 pm
(Ad, I took the liberty of flipping the colors... Let me know if the other way was really what you intended.)

Looks pretty scary to me. Why is Biden doing so well in Arizona? I think that's the biggest surprise here.

I have no strong preference. Blue is traditionally the color of the political right and red the color of the left. But it's not a big deal.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun May 03, 2020 2:26 pm

Xan wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 1:58 pm
Why is Biden doing so well in Arizona? I think that's the biggest surprise here.

Texas is the big surprise to me. In any normal election Texas would no more be in play than California. I have read in some news sources that the GOP is, if not quite in a state of full panic, getting close. And the liberal media/press have reported that Trump has had some full blown meltdowns with his reelection staff being on the receiving end of volcanic tirades.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by D1984 » Sun May 03, 2020 2:42 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 2:26 pm
Xan wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 1:58 pm
Why is Biden doing so well in Arizona? I think that's the biggest surprise here.

Texas is the big surprise to me. In any normal election Texas would no more be in play than California. I have read in some news sources that the GOP is, if not quite in a state of full panic, getting close. And the liberal media/press have reported that Trump has had some full blown meltdowns with his reelection staff being on the receiving end of volcanic tirades.
Texas almost certainly isn't in play. It may be somewhat close (i.e. with Biden losing the state by about the same or a little less than O'Rourke lost it to Cruz) but the only way I see for him to win Texas is if the Latino population in the RGV votes at the same levels--by which I mean a large percentage of them register and vote which historically they have not-- as they vote in California (or at least at the same levels as they vote in, say, Travis County). Otherwise, Texas will just be "so close, but no cigar" for the Democrats in 2020. Who knows what 2024 will bring, though?

The only other one I am surprised about is Wisconsin and NC (!!!). I'm pretty much expecting Wisconsin to be a neck-and-neck dead heat and maybe even slightly favoring Trump given its higher percentage of non-college educated WWC voters vs the other "blue wall" states PA and MI (neither of which I expect Trump will win unless things change radically in the next few months).

NC may be becoming another Virginia....just a decade or so behind the original one. It seems like it was only yesterday that Virginia was solid a solid red state but looking back that was only up until about 2005-2006. Or it could be that Biden is just riding Cunningham's coattails.

As for Florida and Arizona...who knows? Arizona Latinos are generally in favor of the Democratic Party but do they vote in any higher proportions than Texas Latinos? Finally, both states have a lot of older/retired/snowbird voters and while that would usually be good news for the GOP (since voters over 65 are one of the strongest Republican leaning groups) a lot of older voters just seem to like Biden even if they don't much like other Democrats. Don't know why, but they do.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Sun May 03, 2020 3:22 pm

Living in AZ, I can say I've definitely seen a shift in the state since Trump was elected. Trump is very polarizing. The young people in Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff were not very politically active before Trump came into office. In the last 4 years, their raw hate of Trump has led to a bit of an uprising here. These are not necessarily votes for Biden as they are votes against Trump. The small boondocks cities and towns are still very red, but the bigger cities are very much tilting blue. Great leaders unite the masses, bad leaders divide the masses. Great leaders inspire people to follow them, bad leaders inspire people to revolt agains them. If Trump loses in Nov it will be his own doing. It's Trumps election to lose not Biden's election to win, imo.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sun May 03, 2020 3:39 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 2:15 pm
Xan wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 1:58 pm
(Ad, I took the liberty of flipping the colors... Let me know if the other way was really what you intended.)

Looks pretty scary to me. Why is Biden doing so well in Arizona? I think that's the biggest surprise here.

I have no strong preference. Blue is traditionally the color of the political right and red the color of the left. But it's not a big deal.
You DO have your color understanding reversed.

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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by vnatale » Sun May 03, 2020 3:41 pm

pmward wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 3:22 pm
Living in AZ, I can say I've definitely seen a shift in the state since Trump was elected. Trump is very polarizing. The young people in Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff were not very politically active before Trump came into office. In the last 4 years, their raw hate of Trump has led to a bit of an uprising here. These are not necessarily votes for Biden as they are votes against Trump. The small boondocks cities and towns are still very red, but the bigger cities are very much tilting blue. Great leaders unite the masses, bad leaders divide the masses. Great leaders inspire people to follow them, bad leaders inspire people to revolt agains them. If Trump loses in Nov it will be his own doing. It's Trumps election to lose not Biden's election to win, imo.
For certain! In my lifetime I cannot remember a worst Democratic candidate than Biden.

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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by pmward » Sun May 03, 2020 3:44 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 3:41 pm
pmward wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 3:22 pm
Living in AZ, I can say I've definitely seen a shift in the state since Trump was elected. Trump is very polarizing. The young people in Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff were not very politically active before Trump came into office. In the last 4 years, their raw hate of Trump has led to a bit of an uprising here. These are not necessarily votes for Biden as they are votes against Trump. The small boondocks cities and towns are still very red, but the bigger cities are very much tilting blue. Great leaders unite the masses, bad leaders divide the masses. Great leaders inspire people to follow them, bad leaders inspire people to revolt agains them. If Trump loses in Nov it will be his own doing. It's Trumps election to lose not Biden's election to win, imo.
For certain! In my lifetime I cannot remember a worst Democratic candidate than Biden.

Vinny
Yep, it's Trump vs Not-Trump
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Xan » Sun May 03, 2020 3:54 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 3:39 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 2:15 pm
Xan wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 1:58 pm
(Ad, I took the liberty of flipping the colors... Let me know if the other way was really what you intended.)

Looks pretty scary to me. Why is Biden doing so well in Arizona? I think that's the biggest surprise here.

I have no strong preference. Blue is traditionally the color of the political right and red the color of the left. But it's not a big deal.
You DO have your color understanding reversed.

Vinny
I think it was the 2000 election which established "red=Republican" and "blue=Democrat". Ad's appeal to tradition goes back much, much farther, I'm almost certain. I shouldn't have swapped his colors.
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun May 03, 2020 4:01 pm

Oops. I missed this new poll that just came out today...

CBS/Yougov National Poll: Biden+6 (Trump 43 / Biden 49)
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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls

Post by Mountaineer » Sun May 03, 2020 4:43 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 3:41 pm
For certain! In my lifetime I cannot remember a worst Democratic candidate than Biden.

Vinny
100% agreed. The way Biden reportedly lied about his first wife’s car crash cause is appalling; said the trucker who she pulled out in front of was drunk; proven he was not. And the way he used his wife’s and his daughter’s death to his political advantage. And the way he touts his PA upbringing when in PA (he left there as a very young child), and his Delaware ties when talking to a Delaware audience. And his raking in money from charging his security guards hefty rent at his estate. Etc. Hard to understand how he has any street cred. The Democrats must be in a terrible bind to pick him over someone like Jim Webb, or several million others with better ethics.
Turns my stomach to even think about the praise the lemmings gush about Joe the letch and gaffer. >:D
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