Gyroscopic Investing

Interesting post from Denninger this morning. I don't know enough to agree or disagree, but it's an interesting hypothesis about COVID-19 being an attenuated virus from an unfinished vaccine for SARS or MERS.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3524114

Of course it has that unmistakable "off the rails" quality of most of his posts.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:08 am I thought it was accepted knowledge that the virus came from the Chinese wet markets randomly?

Maybe it came "through" the wet markets (as mentioned in the post) but wasn't just completely random.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:06 am Interesting post from Denninger this morning. I don't know enough to agree or disagree, but it's an interesting hypothesis about COVID-19 being an attenuated virus from an unfinished vaccine for SARS or MERS.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3524114

Of course it has that unmistakable "off the rails" quality of most of his posts.

Or you could read this instead.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 175442.htm

Conspiracy theorist or immunology Ph.Ds, who knows more about this?

mdwilson1991 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:21 am

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:06 am Interesting post from Denninger this morning. I don't know enough to agree or disagree, but it's an interesting hypothesis about COVID-19 being an attenuated virus from an unfinished vaccine for SARS or MERS.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3524114

Of course it has that unmistakable "off the rails" quality of most of his posts.

Or you could read this instead.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 175442.htm

Conspiracy theorist or immunology Ph.Ds, who knows more about this?

Or I could read both things and not be any closer to knowing which is "right".

I've followed Denninger for well over a decade now, and although I personally find him to be an insufferable narcissist, his seemingly insatiable desire to be right makes him loath to engage in unfounded speculation. His penchant for banning anyone who offers an opinion without reasonable evidence is legendary.

Maddy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:06 am I've followed Denninger for well over a decade now, and although I personally find him to be an insufferable narcissist, his seemingly insatiable desire to be right makes him loath to engage in unfounded speculation. His penchant for banning anyone who offers an opinion without reasonable evidence is legendary.

And those are his good points!

I can't help myself and continue to read him, and even though I hate his style, the numbers keep on making sense.

But, you just can't come out and say we don't need those ventilators. Those people have a 95% chance of dying anyway. Can you? Can the government possibly, in the next few weeks get to the point where it can reverse course and flip to we need to get back to work, so for all you at risk, you stay home, everyone else, back at it?

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238757

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:28 pm I can't help myself and continue to read him, and even though I hate his style, the numbers keep on making sense.

But, you just can't come out and say we don't need those ventilators. Those people have a 95% chance of dying anyway. Can you? Can the government possibly, in the next few weeks get to the point where it can reverse course and flip to we need to get back to work, so for all you at risk, you stay home, everyone else, back at it?

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238757

He's also had some posts about the possibility that the coronavirus is being spread by hospital workers, which is something I've wondered about.

But you know, he uses too much bold, italics, and all caps so...

Hey, you're a good-looking dude, Cortopassi!

I agree--Denninger is making a whole lot of sense when he asks whether we should be turning the world upside down to insure that heroic measures are available to a population that is 80-95% likely to die anyway.

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:05 pm But you know, he uses too much bold, italics, and all caps so...

And his bare-metal HTML website with low-res animated smiley GIFs is straight out of Geocities circa 1995!

Bare-metal HTML can be a valid minimalist design choice, but when combined with the various combinations of bold, italics, underlining, and all caps, it kind of makes it look like a chain email forwarded by my grandmother.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:22 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:05 pm But you know, he uses too much bold, italics, and all caps so...

And his bare-metal HTML website with low-res animated smiley GIFs is straight out of Geocities circa 1995!

Bare-metal HTML can be a valid minimalist design choice, but when combined with the various combinations of bold, italics, underlining, and all caps, it kind of makes it look like a chain email forwarded by my grandmother.

No kidding.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:22 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:05 pm But you know, he uses too much bold, italics, and all caps so...

And his bare-metal HTML website with low-res animated smiley GIFs is straight out of Geocities circa 1995!

Bare-metal HTML can be a valid minimalist design choice, but when combined with the various combinations of bold, italics, underlining, and all caps, it kind of makes it look like a chain email forwarded by my grandmother.

I don't disagree... a white background and a sans-serif font would go a long way over there. But obviously, he doesn't give sh*t about such things.

Many of his arguments have merit though. Not saying I agree with everything, but I'm okay with reading a wide variety of viewpoints on things and I'm willing to look past design and writing style issues.

Denninger’s latest plan to reopen. Comments?

Reopen NOW. Here’s How.

We were discussing this in our web development lecture recently. Visitors to a website intrinsically determine the credibility of the site based on "true cues." Higher quality sites are deemed more trustworthy and credible, and generally this personal policy for web surfing works. Phishing sites for instance are enormously amateurish.

Having said that, the lack of modern web design on this Denninger fellow's site is kind of... endearing?

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:36 am Denninger’s latest plan to reopen. Comments?

Reopen NOW. Here’s How.

Yes, he's right. I hope the administration tells the governors in no uncertain terms that they have to do this or we will be in a Greater Depression very shortly.

Printing money can't replace lost productivity.

Makes sense to me.

Denninger has always seemed a bit "off" for some reason to me. Often times it seems like he bases his information on some evidence, makes his conclusion, but then will disregard new data that does not support his initial conclusion.

That is why he deletes and bans people from his website that disagree with his viewpoints and why he has comments disabled from Youtube.

I saw someone else refer to his arguments as mostly 2 dimensional... which I think is pretty accurate.

Plus, to be honest, I try really hard to filter our information from people that seem super-unstable. A long time ago over at ar15.com there was a post titled:

"When will people stop listening to Karl Denninger? He has a new prediction out."

that got into what a wacko he is. Here is a quote:

+1 on the abrasive crank part... he ran off a lot of his smartest, most active posters on his forum with his asshattery. It used to be a great resource with quite a few people that knew a lot about different aspects of finance, economics, etc.

and

Karl's past is... interesting... he was apparently part of what some have described as a "bisexual cult". Allegedly, his wife left him for another woman that she met in the cult...

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.reli ... wing&pli=1

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.reli ... e129b6a02b

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.reli ... 9d49f720d3

http://groups.google.com/group/talk.rel ... +Denninger

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.reli ... f77b7e0f99

There is more information out there regarding his past if you're inclined to look for it...

Original link: https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Whe ... 5-1110928/

Anyways, based on what his wife and other people in the cult wrote, it really sounds like he has a constant need to be put on a pedestal to the point of being toxic. IMHO, this just makes him too biased to be overly useful.

It is almost like Peter Schiff... but instead of feeding his wallet like Schiff does, Denninger focuses on feeding his ego. That is why neither will ever be willing to weigh-in any information that doesn't mesh with what they preach.

I have no idea what any of those google groups are talking about, or what they have to do with Denninger or his views on the CoVid-19 situation. They sound like a bunch of kooks, disgruntled over something--though it's impossible to tell what.

Maddy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:01 pm I have no idea what any of those google groups are talking about, or what they have to do with Denninger or his views on the CoVid-19 situation. They sound like a bunch of kooks, disgruntled over something--though it's impossible to tell what.

His arguments stand or fall on their own merits.
They make sense to me. I don't care if he has had crazy ideas before.

Everytime I listened to him recently he was saying that if you go on a ventilator you will die. Sure thing. Guaranteed practically 100% of the time.

He kept quoting the same source that had something like a sample size of 26 people. As this thing spread he kept quoting the same source day after day after day. Sorry, that is just fear-mongering with a sample size that small when you are screaming from the mountaintops like he is doing.

I saw (elsewhere) a sample of 100 people where 66% died. The other 44% might have died if they were listening to Denninger and refused to be treated.

Who knows what the correct numbers are. I don’t pretend to be a medical expert... but he sure does.

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:28 pm Everytime I listened to him recently he was saying that if you go on a ventilator you will die. Sure thing. Guaranteed practically 100% of the time.

He kept quoting the same source that had something like a sample size of 26 people. As this thing spread he kept quoting the same source day after day after day. Sorry, that is just fear-mongering with a sample size that small when you are screaming from the mountaintops like he is doing.

I saw (elsewhere) a sample of 100 people where 66% died. The other 44% might have died if they were listening to Denninger and refused to be treated.

Who knows what the correct numbers are. I don’t pretend to be a medical expert... but he sure does.

So 110% might have died in that case? Wow, that really is serious!

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:56 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:28 pm Everytime I listened to him recently he was saying that if you go on a ventilator you will die. Sure thing. Guaranteed practically 100% of the time.

He kept quoting the same source that had something like a sample size of 26 people. As this thing spread he kept quoting the same source day after day after day. Sorry, that is just fear-mongering with a sample size that small when you are screaming from the mountaintops like he is doing.

I saw (elsewhere) a sample of 100 people where 66% died. The other 44% might have died if they were listening to Denninger and refused to be treated.

Who knows what the correct numbers are. I don’t pretend to be a medical expert... but he sure does.

So 110% might have died in that case? Wow, that really is serious!

Sorry, I don’t follow. But I doubt you intend to. So I guess we can just leave it at that.

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:14 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:56 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:28 pm Everytime I listened to him recently he was saying that if you go on a ventilator you will die. Sure thing. Guaranteed practically 100% of the time.

He kept quoting the same source that had something like a sample size of 26 people. As this thing spread he kept quoting the same source day after day after day. Sorry, that is just fear-mongering with a sample size that small when you are screaming from the mountaintops like he is doing.

I saw (elsewhere) a sample of 100 people where 66% died. The other 44% might have died if they were listening to Denninger and refused to be treated.

Who knows what the correct numbers are. I don’t pretend to be a medical expert... but he sure does.

So 110% might have died in that case? Wow, that really is serious!

Sorry, I don’t follow. But I doubt you intend to. So I guess we can just leave it at that.

Sorry, it was a joke about 66% + 44% not adding up to 100%.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:20 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:14 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:56 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:28 pm Everytime I listened to him recently he was saying that if you go on a ventilator you will die. Sure thing. Guaranteed practically 100% of the time.

He kept quoting the same source that had something like a sample size of 26 people. As this thing spread he kept quoting the same source day after day after day. Sorry, that is just fear-mongering with a sample size that small when you are screaming from the mountaintops like he is doing.

I saw (elsewhere) a sample of 100 people where 66% died. The other 44% might have died if they were listening to Denninger and refused to be treated.

Who knows what the correct numbers are. I don’t pretend to be a medical expert... but he sure does.

So 110% might have died in that case? Wow, that really is serious!

Sorry, I don’t follow. But I doubt you intend to. So I guess we can just leave it at that.

Sorry, it was a joke about 66% + 44% not adding up to 100%.

My bad, lol. I got no good excuse for that shoddy math job. Sorry for the snappy reply.

I just find it sad that people on a vent have not great odds. Literally 2 minutes after I posted it I heard the president thanking the media for not posting the mortality stats for people on ventilators. He said something like, “I know it, you know... and thanks for not writing about it”.

I have no doubt my dad listens to the doom and gloomers.. and by extension is heavily influenced by people like Ticker Guy. I would hate for him to one day make decisions based on assumptions gleamed from such limited information.

Sorry again.

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:40 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:20 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:14 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:56 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:28 pm Everytime I listened to him recently he was saying that if you go on a ventilator you will die. Sure thing. Guaranteed practically 100% of the time.

He kept quoting the same source that had something like a sample size of 26 people. As this thing spread he kept quoting the same source day after day after day. Sorry, that is just fear-mongering with a sample size that small when you are screaming from the mountaintops like he is doing.

I saw (elsewhere) a sample of 100 people where 66% died. The other 44% might have died if they were listening to Denninger and refused to be treated.

Who knows what the correct numbers are. I don’t pretend to be a medical expert... but he sure does.

So 110% might have died in that case? Wow, that really is serious!

Sorry, I don’t follow. But I doubt you intend to. So I guess we can just leave it at that.

Sorry, it was a joke about 66% + 44% not adding up to 100%.

My bad, lol. I got no good excuse for that shoddy math job. Sorry for the snappy reply.

I just find it sad that people on a vent have not great odds. Literally 2 minutes after I posted it I heard the president thanking the media for not posting the mortality stats for people on ventilators. He said something like, “I know it, you know... and thanks for not writing about it”.

I have no doubt my dad listens to the doom and gloomers.. and by extension is heavily influenced by people like Ticker Guy. I would hate for him to one day make decisions based on assumptions gleamed from such limited information.

Sorry again.

Sure, no problem. Many people are on edge for obvious reasons.