Gyroscopic Investing

Xan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:03 am

vnatale wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:55 pmCapture.JPG

Is there an equivalent chart looking at deaths or hospitalizations? Total cases is more of a chart of how much testing is being done.

That is exactly the problem - it's very hard to compare across countries, or even states with different testing policies. We're finding out now the extent of the un-tested, asymptomatic carrier problem:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ve-got-it/

Such undocumented cases are still contagious and the study found them to be the source of most of the virus’s spread in China before the restrictions came in. Even though these people were only 55 per cent as contagious as people with symptoms, the study found that they were the source of 79 per cent of further infections, due to there being more of them, and the higher likelihood that they were out and about.

So given that - would you argue that the lockdown measures are going to be proven to be next to useless for controlling viral spread? That may be, but, would people have simply accepted the message of "you're going to get the virus no matter what, so just keep working and don't worry about it until you get sick"? Kinda doubt it. There would have been social upheaval and economic harm, as well as a raft of conspiracy theories, either way.

Denninger makes a persuasive case for the proposition that the mandated social distancing sought to be achieved by a nearly complete shut-down of the economy has done very little to alter the R0 of this virus. He concludes, based upon the CDC's own statistics and several decades worth of information gleaned from our experience with polio, that the most significant source of transmission, at this point, is health care workers who, though not necessarily infected themselves, are serving as extremely efficient vectors in the community. He asserts that no other conclusion can be reconciled with the math, raising the question why the focus of attention continues to be on measures that are not only largely unavailing but that are virtually certain to devastate the economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksME4oS ... e=emb_logo

I think I said May 31 in the "prediction" thread, but it depends....NYC is still scoring 3 to 4 thousand *confirmed* new cases a day. They were trending down but then increased again in the past day - so basically a constant rate of new cases since March 22. New cases have to reduce several fold, maybe down to the tens of patients, before the lockdown is lifted.

Packing people into public spaces like sardines has been a way of life here for a long time, but it's certainly not a good public health situation. Once the lockdown is lifted I have no idea what life here will be like. There is an elevator in the subway station near my workplace that we all call "the tuberculator". We still took it without a second thought...but will people willingly get into it now?

I do not speak Korean but
What can it Hurt.
Leading COVID-19 expert from South Korea, explains why everyone should be wearing a mask.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1243975060307599360

The Missus made us masks!

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:45 pm I think I said May 31 in the "prediction" thread, but it depends....NYC is still scoring 3 to 4 thousand *confirmed* new cases a day. They were trending down but then increased again in the past day - so basically a constant rate of new cases since March 22. New cases have to reduce several fold, maybe down to the tens of patients, before the lockdown is lifted.

Packing people into public spaces like sardines has been a way of life here for a long time, but it's certainly not a good public health situation. Once the lockdown is lifted I have no idea what life here will be like. There is an elevator in the subway station near my workplace that we all call "the tuberculator". We still took it without a second thought...but will people willingly get into it now?

You can still move here after the pandemic is over.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:45 pm There is an elevator in the subway station near my workplace that we all call "the tuberculator". We still took it without a second thought...but will people willingly get into it now?

People will wear masks like in Asia

Boris Johnson says that China has perhaps dozens of times more cases than claimed. I wouldn't be surprised if that were actually the case. Given the tenuous relationship between the Chinese government and the truth.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ina-2020-3

Here's a picture from Hong Kong my dad recently sent me.

I feel like we should all be wearing masks to the grocery store. People assume that the few who do are sick, or at least they can’t help but feel *maybe* the wearer is sick. Maybe when the fancier or more fun designs come out .

off topic: (Smith’s Hong Kong photo). I wonder if that first character in the sign is Cantonese only.

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:05 pm I feel like we should all be wearing masks to the grocery store. People assume that the few who do are sick, or at least they can’t help but feel *maybe* the wearer is sick. Maybe when the fancier or more fun designs come out .

off topic: (Smith’s Hong Kong photo). I wonder if that first character in the sign is Cantonese only.

A brighter mind will have to chime in on that one. I can speak Cantonese more or less fluently, but I am unable to read it unfortunately.

My dad has been cut off from China now that they have closed the border, so he will be in Hong Kong for the remainder of his trip. No boats are available to take him to Macau or anything like that.

We still don't know how the self-isolation situation is going to work out when he's back.

I really don't like the idea of wearing much of anything - let alone something covering my face. However... I expect it won't be too long before the social pressure ramps up enough that I won't be able to stop in a grocery store without a mask.

With that in mind, I'm working on my pack friendly, re-useable, re-chargeable face mask. Every evening I boil a bandana in 200ml of water and 60 grams of salt and then hang it up to dry without rinsing it. The next day, I tie it on like a cowboy neckerchief and can raise it up like a bank robber when required.

Once prepared, the bandana's invisible surface of salt crystals will near instantly destroy any viruses that land on it. And it can be recharged every day. So it is not only retro-cool, but also effective and cheap. Not as retro-cool as a Plague Doctor mask, but I do what I can. It's a skull bandana.

It also helps that I carry a 600 watt immersion heater and some silicone high temp food quality boiling bags.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:24 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:05 pm I feel like we should all be wearing masks to the grocery store. People assume that the few who do are sick, or at least they can’t help but feel *maybe* the wearer is sick. Maybe when the fancier or more fun designs come out .

off topic: (Smith’s Hong Kong photo). I wonder if that first character in the sign is Cantonese only.

A brighter mind will have to chime in on that one. I can speak Cantonese more or less fluently, but I am unable to read it unfortunately.

That's interesting. I thought all the Chinese dialects were different only in their spoken aspect but shared the written aspect.
Which just goes to show how little I know about the Chinese language(s).

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:32 pmNot as retro-cool as a Plague Doctor mask, but I do what I can. It's a skull bandana.

A skull bandana may be better. I have a plague doctor mask that I bought for Halloween last year — who knew. If I wore it now, I don’t think it would be appreciated.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:39 pm That's interesting. I thought all the Chinese dialects were different only in their spoken aspect but shared the written aspect.
Which just goes to show how little I know about the Chinese language(s).

That’s true for the most part. You don’t find many things written in Cantonese except for comic books, according to a guy who gave me a few lessons in a Burger King in no-Cantonese-at-all Taipei. (Bruce, if you’re out there, I really appreciated those lessons. If my minidisc recorder hadn’t glitched out, I’d still be playing the recordings on a regular basis). I do still remember how to say “eat sh*t”

There are some characters that are truly Cantonese-only, but if you break them down into their components, they look like the other characters. That is, they’re not made from scratch.

I am hoping that the Dow will hit 15,000 through the scope of this crisis.

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:54 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:39 pm That's interesting. I thought all the Chinese dialects were different only in their spoken aspect but shared the written aspect.
Which just goes to show how little I know about the Chinese language(s).

That’s true for the most part. You don’t find many things written in Cantonese except for comic books, according to a guy who gave me a few lessons in a Burger King in no-Cantonese-at-all Taipei. (Bruce, if you’re out there, I really appreciated those lessons. If my minidisc recorder hadn’t glitched out, I’d still be playing the recordings on a regular basis). I do still remember how to say “eat sh*t”

There are some characters that are truly Cantonese-only, but if you break them down into their components, they look like the other characters. That is, they’re not made from scratch.

So it's sort of like the relationship between German and Swiss German?

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:46 pm

There are some characters that are truly Cantonese-only,

So it's sort of like the relationship between German and Swiss German?

That’s a question for Harry Browne. :-) I don’t know much about German, let alone Swiss German.
I have watched Babylon Berlin without dubbing*, and I once read that Swiss German doesn’t use that special character, instead opting for a double-S. That’s not what you mean, is it?

*So I could look up some of the captions. Spending my quarantine time wisely.

Novartis CEO says Malaria drug is biggest hope against coronavirus

"Pre-clinical studies in animals as well as the first data from clinical studies show that hydroxychloroquine kills the coronavirus," Narasimhan told the newspaper.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novartis ... 52054.html

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:16 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:46 pm

There are some characters that are truly Cantonese-only,

So it's sort of like the relationship between German and Swiss German?

That’s a question for Harry Browne. :-) I don’t know much about German, let alone Swiss German.
I have watched Babylon Berlin without dubbing*, and I once read that Swiss German doesn’t use that special character, instead opting for a double-S. That’s not what you mean, is it?

*So I could look up some of the captions. Spending my quarantine time wisely.

No, I meant that Swiss German isn't much of a written language. It's primarily a spoken language with many dialects.
High German speakers think it's horrible.

The latest Massachusetts stats as of 4 PM Sunday. I've not looked at these for several days.

Up to 41 in my county and 37 in the adjoining one. Seems like 2nd and 3rd lowest of all counties in the state.

I've always noticed whenever I look at these that the male / female split has always been about equal. But this is the first time I'm noticing the "unknown" category?

I don't know Massachusetts stats compared to other states in the country per capita.

Those four new deaths were fairly old, with the youngest being in the 70s.

Vinny

Will they ever learn? Chinese markets are still selling bats and slaughtering rabbits on blood-soaked floors as Beijing celebrates 'victory' over the coronavirus

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -bats.html

Virginia Pastor Dies From Coronavirus After Previously Saying 'Media Is Pumping Out Fear' About Pandemic

https://www.newsweek.com/virginia-pasto ... ic-1494702

South African soldiers fire rubber bullets to enforce social distancing

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/south-afr ... SocialFlow