WiseOne wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:19 am
Mountaineer wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:47 am
Just saw this on another forum:
New York City opens fully (100%) on July 1!! We just received that announcement this morning. Wow! Fully capacity, this states, for restaurants, sports events, and Broadway, among all the others. And fully open schools in the fall. This is the result of dropping indicators of virus infection and is due in great part to 6.3 million vaccinations in NYC to date.
Don't get too excited. The mayor said he PLANS to reopen the city by July 1. Typical loose-cannon de Blasio. I think he's just holding it out as a carrot to get more people to go for the vaccine. Also, it's not clear he got permission to say that from Papa Cuomo.
Just as a quick exercise, take a look at the NYC curve of COVID 19 deaths for 2021, after the winter wave, and compare to COVID 19 deaths in 2020 after the initial March wave petered out by sometime in May. You tell me if you think this is due to the vaccines rather than typical weather related variations in flu-like illnesses.
This technique is what used to be called "declare victory and walk off the field." That is possible, but I think it's more likely that the mayors & governors have gotten used to keeping tight controls on large populations, and it will take quite a while before they willingly give that up.
Regarding GT's question on excess deaths during COVID: yes, it's not clear what proportion are due to COVID itself vs COVID testing artifact vs. collateral damage on the people with life-threatening illnesses that went untreated, or inadequately treated during lockdown. Ivor Cummins did an analysis of that in the UK and determined that the excess deaths were entirely due to the collateral damage from lockdowns.
I found a NCHS Data Brief, Number 359 Published in Dec 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db395-H.pdf
Mortality in the United States, 2019
Kenneth D. Kochanek, M.A., Jiaquan Xu, M.D., and Elizabeth Arias, Ph.D
Summary
In 2019, a total of 2,854,838 resident deaths were registered in the United States—15,633 more
deaths than in 2018. From 2018 to 2019, the age-adjusted death rate for the total population
decreased 1.2%, and life expectancy at birth increased 0.1 year. Age-specific death rates between
2018 and 2019 decreased for age groups 45–54, 65–74, 75–84, and 85 and over, and increased for
age group 35–44. Age-adjusted death rates decreased for non-Hispanic black males and females
and non-Hispanic white males and females.
The 10 leading causes of death in 2019 remained the same as in 2018, although 2 causes
exchanged ranks. Influenza and pneumonia, the eighth leading cause in 2018, became the ninth
leading cause in 2019, while kidney disease, the ninth leading cause in 2018, became the eighth
leading cause in 2019 (1). Age-adjusted death rates decreased for seven leading causes and
increased for one. Life expectancy at birth increased 0.1 year from 78.7 years in 2018 to 78.8 in
2019, largely because of decreases in mortality from cancer, chronic lower respiratory diseases,
influenza and pneumonia, suicide, and stroke.
In 2019, the 10 leading causes of death (heart disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, chronic
lower respiratory diseases, stroke, Alzheimer disease, diabetes, kidney disease, influenza and
pneumonia, and suicide) remained the same as in 2018, although two causes exchanged ranks
(Figure 4). Influenza and pneumonia, the eighth leading cause in 2018, became the ninth leading
cause in 2019, while kidney disease, the ninth leading cause in 2018, became the eighth leading
cause in 2019 (1). Causes of death are ranked according to number of deaths (1). The 10 leading
causes of death accounted for 73.4% of all deaths in the United States in 2019.
So:
2019 had 2,854,838 resident deaths
2018 had 2,839,205 resident deaths
We should expect to have 2020 come in over 3 plus million deaths; if COVID caused 300K deaths in 2020.
Based on the date of this report, looks like the data for 2020 will not be available until the end of 2021.
Will be interesting to see how all the numbers play out vs prior years