Coronavirus General Discussion

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:19 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:14 am
Yes, there really needs to be some sort of societal discussion of what is and isn't an acceptable level of risk.

Here's an idea for an acceptable level of risk: your risk of dying in a car crash, if you drive an average number of miles per day. That is a number that is not hard to calculate. If you don't hesitate to jump in a car and drive to, say, the grocery or to work, then you are implicitly ok with that level of risk. You should therefore be ok with all levels of risk equal to or lower than that. I actually made that calculation (quick and dirty though) when my work colleagues decided to hold an outdoor party for graduating students last summer, at the home of someone who lived 30 miles outside the city. Turns out our COVID risk was way less than the risk of the 30 mile drive.

That would put COVID and the flu both in the "acceptable" range for any healthy person under age 40, for sure, and likely for older ages up to somewhere around age 65 and some comorbid conditions.

Another touchstone: risk of swimming pools. Lots of people currently in a panic over COVID have those in their backyards. They also probably would not be averse to going downhill skiing.

It would be fun to make a list of these common risky behaviors, calculate the risks, and compare to COVID and other infectious diseases.
To do that the average citizen would need to have a decent idea of the risk of Covid. And they dont. Polls show some of them think we have a 10-15% death rate from it. And then a sense of nobility has come in that I am saving lives by staying at home.

But ultimately there are a dozen things we do every day that are more dangerous than Covid. Whether it is climbing up on a ladder to change a lightbulb or eating bone-in chicken.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:28 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:14 am
Yes, there really needs to be some sort of societal discussion of what is and isn't an acceptable level of risk.

Here's an idea for an acceptable level of risk: your risk of dying in a car crash, if you drive an average number of miles per day. That is a number that is not hard to calculate. If you don't hesitate to jump in a car and drive to, say, the grocery or to work, then you are implicitly ok with that level of risk. You should therefore be ok with all levels of risk equal to or lower than that. I actually made that calculation (quick and dirty though) when my work colleagues decided to hold an outdoor party for graduating students last summer, at the home of someone who lived 30 miles outside the city. Turns out our COVID risk was way less than the risk of the 30 mile drive.

That would put COVID and the flu both in the "acceptable" range for any healthy person under age 40, for sure, and likely for older ages up to somewhere around age 65 and some comorbid conditions.

Another touchstone: risk of swimming pools. Lots of people currently in a panic over COVID have those in their backyards. They also probably would not be averse to going downhill skiing.

It would be fun to make a list of these common risky behaviors, calculate the risks, and compare to COVID and other infectious diseases.
Risk 1 plus Risk 2 plus Risk 3 plus Risk 4 .... plus Risk infinity. Pretty soon you are dead if you do them all at once. For example, never drive a car into a swimming pool full of partying assymptomatic COVID-19 virus swimmers. ;)
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:34 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:50 am
Yes, I'm more or less on Tortoise's page as regards the flu. I didn't say it wasn't important, I said it can no longer be diagnosed because there isn't a sensitive enough test for it.

The question, I guess, is whether it's worth tanking the economy and shutting down schools every winter when the flu/respiratory viruses come around, in this era in which even miniscule risks from infectious disease are no longer considered acceptable.
I think it's safe to say the question has been answered and it's a resounding no at this point.
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:28 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:34 am
sophie wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:50 am
Yes, I'm more or less on Tortoise's page as regards the flu. I didn't say it wasn't important, I said it can no longer be diagnosed because there isn't a sensitive enough test for it.

The question, I guess, is whether it's worth tanking the economy and shutting down schools every winter when the flu/respiratory viruses come around, in this era in which even miniscule risks from infectious disease are no longer considered acceptable.
I think it's safe to say the question has been answered and it's a resounding no at this point.
Well I am afraid most Americans still dont agree according to latest Gallup Polling:

“There was also no change in the 69% of U.S. adults who said the better advice right now for people who do not have COVID-19 symptoms and are otherwise healthy is to "stay home as much as possible" rather than "lead their normal lives as much as possible and avoid interruptions to work and business" (31%).”
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:59 pm

"At this forum", I should've said.
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:59 pm

The sad reality is that a lot of people don't think very critically about things, and they believe whatever the media and public health authorities (like Fauci) tell them.

So regardless of the actual risks, until Fauci and the media change the narrative to say that it's safe the leave the house and live normal lives again, a large portion of the population will consider it to be too dangerous.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:10 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:59 pm
The sad reality is that a lot of people don't think very critically about things, and they believe whatever the media and public health authorities (like Fauci) tell them.

So regardless of the actual risks, until Fauci and the media change the narrative to say that it's safe the leave the house and live normal lives again, a large portion of the population will consider it to be too dangerous.
I can understand that way of thinking in the first few months of the unknown. But after a year, how has the average person not at some point run into the data of say the mortality rate and compare that to the hysteria. I mean at this point maybe 100 celebrities and pro athletes have tested positive and either experienced nothing or gotten sick and recovered shortly. How does that not work its way into people’s minds that what you are seeing in real life isn’t necessarily lining up with the danger you are hearing about on the news?

Im guessing it’s because the news is always finding that one outlier 20something with no symptoms that died after while testing positive.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:15 pm

One of my friends who lives in Alberta is sick and has COVID-like symptoms. He's getting tested as we speak. Hoping he's okay and that it isn't actually COVID.

Alberta is pretty much the hardest hit province in the country.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:23 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:10 pm
I can understand that way of thinking in the first few months of the unknown. But after a year, how has the average person not at some point run into the data of say the mortality rate and compare that to the hysteria. I mean at this point maybe 100 celebrities and pro athletes have tested positive and either experienced nothing or gotten sick and recovered shortly. How does that not work its way into people’s minds that what you are seeing in real life isn’t necessarily lining up with the danger you are hearing about on the news?

Im guessing it’s because the news is always finding that one outlier 20something with no symptoms that died after while testing positive.
I'm telling you, there are many people who believe the news more than they believe what they see with their own two eyes.

They assume that the people who write and report the news can see more of the big picture than they do and that they report that big picture accurately and dispassionately, without ulterior motive or the intent to support an agenda. It's trust and faith.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:24 pm

All that counts at the end of the day is the outcome you have or your loved ones .

Statistics mean little when it is you on the wrong side of that statistic since it has to happen to someone..

Bad stuff has to happen to someone and it is either us or it isnt. ...

It doesn’t matter to my wife and I what statistics show ...it happened to us
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:33 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:24 pm
It doesn’t matter to my wife and I what statistics show ...it happened to us
To be fair, the statistics do show that due to your age, you and your wife are in a much higher risk category than people under 40. So it makes sense for people in your higher risk category to take more careful precautions.

It's not like the statistics show that nobody in any age group has anything to worry about.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:43 pm

Unless you are sitting isolated at home you can only take just so much in precautions...

It will still happen to people ...so in reality we have two outcomes..it’s us or it isn’t ...then the only question is how bad.

We spent all these months isolated from family and the kids ...we wore a mask every where in public ..yet it got us from somewhere ....

It could have been the gym even though we would go at 5am so we are pretty isolated ..it Could have been one lunch at a table a bit to close ...we just don’t know where it came from.

But the fact is if you don’t stay indoors like a hermit you can be exposed and it is either going to be you that gets it or it isn’t.

There Really is only two outcomes that count ...it’s you or it isn’t.

There Is no other statistics that matters to my wife and I ...somehow it got us as careful as we could be without being hermits
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:12 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:33 pm
So it makes sense for people in your higher risk category to take more careful precautions.
Yes.
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:43 pm
Unless you are sitting isolated at home you can only take just so much in precautions...

It will still happen to people ...so in reality we have two outcomes..it’s us or it isn’t ...then the only question is how bad.

We spent all these months isolated from family and the kids ...we wore a mask every where in public ..yet it got us from somewhere ....

It could have been the gym even though we would go at 5am so we are pretty isolated ..it Could have been one lunch at a table a bit to close ...we just don’t know where it came from.

But the fact is if you don’t stay indoors like a hermit you can be exposed and it is either going to be you that gets it or it isn’t.

There Really is only two outcomes that count ...it’s you or it isn’t.

There Is no other statistics that matters to my wife and I ...somehow it got us as careful as we could be without being hermits
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:16 pm

Mathjak, I feel really bad about the adverse reaction that both you and and your wife had to Covid. And I appreciate your point that actual outcomes are more important to most people than statistical probabilities.

But I suspect you might also be making a broader point about risk management and lockdown/distancing strategies during the occasional viral outbreak. Is that true, and if so, could you maybe clarify your point for me?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:17 pm

Not sure what else you want to know
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:23 pm

It sounded like maybe you have an opinion on lockdowns vs. individual risk management that your previous posts were hinting at, but perhaps I was mistaken. That's fine.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:15 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:23 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:10 pm
I can understand that way of thinking in the first few months of the unknown. But after a year, how has the average person not at some point run into the data of say the mortality rate and compare that to the hysteria. I mean at this point maybe 100 celebrities and pro athletes have tested positive and either experienced nothing or gotten sick and recovered shortly. How does that not work its way into people’s minds that what you are seeing in real life isn’t necessarily lining up with the danger you are hearing about on the news?

Im guessing it’s because the news is always finding that one outlier 20something with no symptoms that died after while testing positive.
I'm telling you, there are many people who believe the news more than they believe what they see with their own two eyes.

They assume that the people who write and report the news can see more of the big picture than they do and that they report that big picture accurately and dispassionately, without ulterior motive or the intent to support an agenda. It's trust and faith.
So how long could this continue if the media and politicians decide to keep it going? I gave it 3 months last March. I thought anything longer than 3 months and people will tire of not going to concerts, sporting events etc. Now we are fast approaching a year. Would there ever be a point where the numbers would flip and 65% of people would say they need to live their lives as normal? And if so what would cause that change. The longer we go the more people forget what life used to be like. My son is quickly forgeting the days he ate in a lunchroom and got to sit next to his friends.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:23 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:15 pm


So how long could this continue if the media and politicians decide to keep it going? I gave it 3 months last March. I thought anything longer than 3 months and people will tire of not going to concerts, sporting events etc. Now we are fast approaching a year. Would there ever be a point where the numbers would flip and 65% of people would say they need to live their lives as normal? And if so what would cause that change. The longer we go the more people forget what life used to be like. My son is quickly forgeting the days he ate in a lunchroom and got to sit next to his friends.
After I got the second vaccine dose earlier this week, I was asked if 'things would return to normal'. I laughed and noted that I had already returned to normal, but everything and everyone around me has not. So to answer your question, if there are no concerts, it doesn't matter whether I am tired of not attending them. This will go on for months more at a minimum. Maybe even a couple of years. >:(
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:40 pm

It’s really no different than how life insurers can tell pretty much in a normal year how many of us will die .

To them statistics mean a lot to them ...they live and breath those stats to run their business .

But they can’t tell us who ..

So as humans we only have two outcomes ...it’s us or it isn’t ....it has to happen to someone but we have no idea if it is us on the wrong side of the statistic or not ...

All the predicting of your own life expectancy can mean nothing .

My sons best friends parents went out for their 40th anniversary and a drunk driver killed them both.

It all boils down to its us or it is not and that is the only outcomes we care about
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:46 pm

pugchief wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:23 pm
..
This will go on for months more at a minimum. Maybe even a couple of years.
Some things will never go back to the old normal, ever.
Feels like the end of the everything rally.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:13 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:46 pm

pugchief wrote:
Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:23 pm

..
This will go on for months more at a minimum. Maybe even a couple of years.

Some things will never go back to the old normal, ever.


Some of it for the good.

It has demonstrated how much wasted travel there has been for work and other situations in which travel was always involved. That it's not essential. That much of the work can get done just as well without all that travel.

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:53 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/spor ... ogin=email


The N.F.L. Had Over 700 Coronavirus Positives. The Seahawks Had None.


The only team to play the entire season without any confirmed positive cases did so with innovative thinking, vigilance to protocols and some Pete Carroll-style competition


.
On the N.F.L.’s march to complete a 269-game schedule amid a pandemic, more than 700 players, coaches and other team personnel tested positive for the coronavirus. It upended rosters, with the Denver Broncos starting a game without any of their three quarterbacks and the Cleveland Browns once fielding a team with nearly all of their receivers out, and it postponed games, with some outbreaks pushing them into midweek or to a bye week.

Through it all, only one of the league’s 32 teams remained untouched by the virus: the Seattle Seahawks. And how they made it through the long season virus-free, in Washington State, where the United States’ first positive case was reported, is a testament to innovative thinking and procedures. The team’s devotion to following health guidelines became a guidepost for the N.F.L. and other leagues grappling with how to proceed as the deadly virus continued to grip the country.

“They invented a playbook for a safe practice environment at a time when the future was deeply uncertain and people were questioning the wisdom of pro sports starting up,” said Vin Gupta, a pulmonologist who has helped organizations respond to the coronavirus and informally advised the Seahawks. “You have to be willing to absorb some costs, and you need leaders who can communicate in a crisis.”





Other teams were less fortunate. After more than 20 Tennessee Titans players and coaches tested positive, contact tracing discovered that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recommendations that people stay at least six feet apart and not congregate for more than 15 minutes were too broad. The league found that players and coaches got infected in less than 15 minutes if they met in poorly ventilated places or did not consistently wear masks. From then on, players were prohibited from driving together, cafeterias were shut, more meetings were held virtually and teams isolated anyone who had close contact with someone who had tested positive.

Even after all these changes in October, hundreds more players, coaches and staff members tested positive, and many others had to isolate because they had been in close contact with them. None, though, were Seahawks.

“We got the lucky end of the stick where we never had to really deal with it,” Lockett said.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:34 pm

America’s Future: Two Realities Based on Balkanized Science
Whenever a nation endures some sort major rift on beliefs and events happen like a civil war or political angst, it takes decades for any sort of makeshift unity to happen. America’s mainstream media, like the above video shows, will NEVER publicly change course they started on 11 months ago. “FIRE” was shouted in the theater and the majority panicked. Few stayed back in the theater and said, “Guys, there isn’t fire” but they were ignored. Few weeks later, after the “Stay Home, Save Lives” and “Just Two More Weeks” messaging started fizzling, people started heading back into the theater and found there was no fire at all and realized they had been lied too.

America has been in a death fetish last several decades culturally. American institutions in government and education has, no matter how wrong, been pumping propaganda that the angel of death is coming in the form of “Global Warming” or a constant drum beat America’s healthcare system is terrible, as examples. Add in that we are several generations away from teaching life skills on independence and instilling any sort of work ethic. It was only a matter of time before something happened that paralyzed the nation by activating the death fetish cult. COVID is sold as if anyone who gets it will never survive. Data be damned, the death messaging must go on.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:24 am

Very interesting about the Johnson and Johnson vaccine and why the media got the real success rate wrong


https://youtu.be/zNn1PGxu5OY
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:52 am

The Stand | The Truth About the COVID-19 Vaccine


https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.co ... 9-vaccine/
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