Coronavirus General Discussion

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doodle
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:03 am

Why is everyone so fixated on test numbers here then if they are so fraught with problems? Why not just look at excess death stats? Can't we compare years worth of data and compare to 2020 to give us a pretty good picture of what is happening?
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vnatale
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:12 am

Xan wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:50 am
vnatale wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:33 am
The height of disregard for others?

Vinny

Dodgers’ Justin Turner Celebrates World Series Win On-Field Despite Testing Positive for Covid-19 Mid-Game

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/do ... uxbndlbing
In his defense, a positive test doesn't mean very much. Did you see the article that (I think) Sophie posted earlier?
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/2 ... ive-tests/

The PCR test has a false positive rate which means that the great majority of positive tests are false positives.
Maybe. But it is going to result in everyone who was on that field when he came back on having to go into a 14 day quarantine. He clearly put his needs over the repercussions for others.

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Cortopassi
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:14 am

doodle wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:03 am
Why is everyone so fixated on test numbers here then if they are so fraught with problems? Why not just look at excess death stats? Can't we compare years worth of data and compare to 2020 to give us a pretty good picture of what is happening?
Yes...WHY? Why are news outlets so focused on cases? If this is a trend, in years forward I hate to hear about # of cold cases, flu cases, etc. Only if there is a significant bad outcome should it matter.

If that was the focus, it seems we should have been rightly worried for a few months, and then gotten somewhat back to normal.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:21 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:14 am
doodle wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:03 am
Why is everyone so fixated on test numbers here then if they are so fraught with problems? Why not just look at excess death stats? Can't we compare years worth of data and compare to 2020 to give us a pretty good picture of what is happening?
Yes...WHY? Why are news outlets so focused on cases? If this is a trend, in years forward I hate to hear about # of cold cases, flu cases, etc. Only if there is a significant bad outcome should it matter.

If that was the focus, it seems we should have been rightly worried for a few months, and then gotten somewhat back to normal.
Yes.
I hated all the things I had toiled for under the sun, because I must leave them to the one who comes after me. Who knows whether that person will be wise or foolish? Yet they will have control over all the fruit of my toil into which I have poured my effort and skill under the sun. . . Nothing is better for a man than to eat and drink and enjoy his work.
- Ecclesiastes
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doodle
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:30 am

I think part of the issue is hospital capacity. This is a legitimate concern if many recoveries are due to improving treatment options. Would Trump or Christie have lived if they hadn't had very prompt hospital treatment? That's a good question. If the case numbers climb to a point that prevents treatment then our death numbers could increase significantly. For that reason I think it's important to monitor case numbers and hospital capacity along with excess death stats. That will give us a pretty clear picture of how to manage this and what our outcomes look like.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:57 am

doodle wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:30 am
I think part of the issue is hospital capacity. This is a legitimate concern if many recoveries are due to improving treatment options. Would Trump or Christie have lived if they hadn't had very prompt hospital treatment? That's a good question. If the case numbers climb to a point that prevents treatment then our death numbers could increase significantly. For that reason I think it's important to monitor case numbers and hospital capacity along with excess death stats. That will give us a pretty clear picture of how to manage this and what our outcomes look like.
I don't disagree with what you say, my only gripe is turning on the news now is like groundhog day from the last two times. "XX hospital is over 80% capacity...may hit limits within 2 weeks. YY had to send people to a different hospital for an ICU bed, etc."

And then the last two times, the surges basically petered out before almost any of the excess beds were needed.

Case in point below (circling is not me). Why the over the top peddling of fear? I had to turn the same lady off this morning while she was being interviewed because she was chastising people for not following the rules. In my opinion, IL (at least around Chicago) is very much following rules. And yet cases continue to rise. I don't know what to say to that other than the measures put in place maybe really don't do a lot, and the only thing that would is a 100% lockdown, in your home, for 2 weeks. Which is impossible, so I then have to default more to a let's do sensible precautions and deal with the hospitalizations the best we can?

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doodle
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:10 pm

Because humans have a love affair with fear peddling media. Calamity and disaster sells....that's why it's important to have leadership that is good at formulating and communicating plans. The latest I heard from Trump in North Carolina is that it's in the 'bosses' hands.
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pugchief
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:01 pm

Corto, I am not a fan of Ezike and this is one of the reasons why. Just using fear to push compliance which as you said has only a marginal benefit.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:15 pm

Europe is locking down again. Ugh.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:07 pm

Namely, too few cases means it's more likely that Trump will win.
Well, that's not going to happen.

I am curious what people will make of Europe getting hit with a big second wave. I assume masking in general is probably much more adhered to in most countries than the US? If so, what's the reason?

Double edged sword I guess -- maybe makes it obvious masks aren't foolproof, but we have to lock down even harder? Strange situation.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:30 pm

New rule: Anytime someone is tested for SARS-CoV-2, they should also be tested for the flu.

Agreed?
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Maddy
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:50 pm

doodle wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:03 am
Why is everyone so fixated on test numbers here then if they are so fraught with problems? Why not just look at excess death stats? Can't we compare years worth of data and compare to 2020 to give us a pretty good picture of what is happening?
Because then Trump would win.
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