Coronavirus General Discussion

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Tortoise
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:09 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:39 pm
You’ve got some good responses, for sure.

The realistic comment is in the US, in the current environment, regardless of Nov 3, makes your scenario less likely than an 18 year old dying of Covid. A vaccine is going to be rolled out even if it is only 50% effective. No way is herd immunity an option, unless we just get there naturally. Things may improve as things go on just because they are and people are tired, before a vaccine, but I see no other path.
Oh, I completely agree with you that the chance of most American states switching directions and adopting the herd immunity approach is close to zero now. That ship has sailed.

But I disagree that it's not an option. It always has been -- and still is -- a sensible option. Our society just refuses to seriously consider it because we've gone collectively bonkers over Covid-1984.
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Tortoise
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:35 pm

doodle wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:26 pm
The strategy to dealing with experts on any topic seems to insert an element of doubt or the appearance of disagreement where there really isn't one. The same strategy is always used whether it is tobacco, human induced climate change, or face masks.
Are you seriously suggesting that there is no significant disagreement among virology and epidemiology experts (meaning all experts, not just the ones leading government agencies) regarding the efficacy of face masks and lockdowns in reducing total Covid-1984 hospitalizations and deaths?

It's bizarrely humorous to me how most people seem to have forgotten what the epidemiologists told us repeatedly in the beginning of the pandemic during the "15 Days to Flatten the Curve" campaign. They told us masks, social distancing, and lockdowns would spread the hospitalizations and deaths over a longer span of time but not reduce the total number of them. In other words, "the area under the curves is the same."

How quickly we forget.
doodle wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:26 pm
Fauci has been constantly quoted as flip flopping by the right wing media.
I don't fault Fauci for changing his position on masks months ago as more data became available. I fault him for not changing his position now that we have even more data showing that Covid-1984 is an extra-large nothingburger for everyone except very old and/or sick people. It shows me quite clearly that Fauci has a political agenda to exaggerate the importance of his government agency (NIAID) and maximize its Covid-1984 funding for as long as possible at the expense of Americans' freedom and prosperity.
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pugchief
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:33 pm

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:35 pm

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drumminj
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by drumminj » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:07 pm

pugchief wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:35 pm
ctest.jpg
Who knew I've been administering self-testing protocol during the entire pandemic!
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Cortopassi
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:33 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:42 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:30 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:17 pm
Fox News has leftists? I don't watch, what do you consider leftist? Would that be like Chris Wallace? The definition of left vs right is probably also in question!
IIRC, I saw several years ago that most Fox News employees were Democrats.
Tried to confirm that but could not. However came across the following.

Vinny

5 facts about Fox News

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... -fox-news/



3On an ideological scale, the average Fox News consumer is to the right of the average U.S. adult, but not as far to the right as the audiences of some other outlets. As part of the November survey, the Center grouped the audiences of 30 news outlets on a scale based on the self-described ideology and partisanship of those who said they had gotten political news from each outlet in the past week. (You can read more about this classification system in this Q&A.) Based on this scale, the average audience member for Fox News is more likely than the average U.S. adult to be conservative and Republican. But the average audiences for four other outlets in the study – the Daily Caller, Breitbart News, and the Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh radio shows – are to the right of the average Fox News viewer

Capture.JPG
Interesting chart. Now I know why I am most comfortable with CBS.
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sophie
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by sophie » Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:03 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:17 am
Rewrite that. "CDC shows mask wearing prevents 15% of cases"

Does that sound better? Currently there's about 7.83M cases, 215k deaths, .02746 CFR. If we prevented 15% of those cases with 100% mask usage (1.1745M), possibly could have saved (doing the math), ~32,250 deaths of the 215k so far.

I think I did that right.

Is that not a good enough reason?
Good math but faulty logic.

You would need to determine the prevalence of mask wearing in the general population, then compare that to mask wearing prevalence in the coronavirus cases. If 85% of the general population wears masks regularly, then (after adjusting for differences between the cases & the general population) you might conclude that mask wearing makes no difference. If 90%+ of the general population wears masks regularly and correctly (which I doubt) then you could conclude that masks might have a protective effect.

What I would actually expect to see is that a SMALLER proportion of the general population wears masks. That's because the population sick enough with COVID to show up at hospitals and get tested are probably more likely to be high risk, and more of them wear masks for personal protection.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:20 am

Ok, sure.

I'm certainly not always logical, but I'm typically realistic. Just like the local parents who want 100% School open right now are twisting themselves into pretzels trying to find every little possible thing that the school board is doing wrong to bolster their case. All it does is create animosity and it's not at all helpful in actually trying to solve the problem of getting kids back to school as soon as possible.

So your mask comments-- it would be great if a study could be done detailing all of this but I don't see that happening for years, if ever because this is all such real time stuff, and I would guess a lot of these relationships are not being documented.

It could eventually be determined they were utterly useless, sure.

But in the meantime just like washing your hands, just wear a mask, it's not going to kill you most likely!

I'm almost surprised there isn't some group somewhere against washing hands.
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I Shrugged
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:43 pm

Thank you Sophie. I woke up this morning with the realization I had seen something wrong on the internet last night, and needed to fix it today. But you beat me to it! :)

You probably think I'm kidding.
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Mark Leavy
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mark Leavy » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:50 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:43 pm
Thank you Sophie. I woke up this morning with the realization I had seen something wrong on the internet last night, and needed to fix it today. But you beat me to it! :)

You probably think I'm kidding.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:51 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:42 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:30 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:17 pm
Fox News has leftists? I don't watch, what do you consider leftist? Would that be like Chris Wallace? The definition of left vs right is probably also in question!
IIRC, I saw several years ago that most Fox News employees were Democrats.
Tried to confirm that but could not. However came across the following.
It might have been this, from 2013? I can't remember:
When it comes to political donations, Fox News’ parent company is lately catering to liberals as much as conservatives.

News Corp.’s News America-FOXPAC political action committee contributed to five Democratic political candidates during January, with Republican candidates scoring a goose egg, Federal Election Commission records show. link
I hated all the things I had toiled for under the sun, because I must leave them to the one who comes after me. Who knows whether that person will be wise or foolish? Yet they will have control over all the fruit of my toil into which I have poured my effort and skill under the sun. . . Nothing is better for a man than to eat and drink and enjoy his work.
- Ecclesiastes
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:54 pm

pugchief wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:33 pm
idiots
That's a plausible theory for why high school students SAT scores have fallen so much in recent years. Kids who wouldn't have bothered taking them, in the past, are taking them now. Maybe because colleges have lowered admission standards, or most jobs require a bachelor's degree now.

Image
I hated all the things I had toiled for under the sun, because I must leave them to the one who comes after me. Who knows whether that person will be wise or foolish? Yet they will have control over all the fruit of my toil into which I have poured my effort and skill under the sun. . . Nothing is better for a man than to eat and drink and enjoy his work.
- Ecclesiastes
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