Coronavirus General Discussion

[pp4me]

Just returned from my 10 mile bike ride that takes me through two city parks which have been nearly deserted since the start of the COVID lockdowns.

They have a basketball court in the park that's closest to me so I bought a basketball to shoot some hoops and get some exercise just before the lockdowns started only to discover they had removed all the rims and nets.

To my great surprise today there was a little league baseball game going on and one of the parking lots was completely full. People were sitting in bleachers and lawn chairs without social distancing and OMG, NOBODY was wearing a mask. They were all just acting normal and nobody had called the police yet.

[Kriegsspiel]

Hmm, what does surrounding each person in mask-like material sound like? Remember the term "cocooning" from the 1980s & 90s?

I guess we could call what's happening now "advanced, government-mandated cocooning". To do it temporarily in response to an acute crisis is one thing, but this is looking like it's going to be the new normal. There's no concrete or achievable endpoint and the vast majority of the population has bought into it without question. I wonder what human life is going to be like? As an introvert/homebody/crazy cat lady nearing retirement age this isn't going to bother me all that much, but what about the generation now in their teens and twenties? Where will be their sense of adventure? When they read books like John Steinbeck's "Travels with Charley", "Into the Wild", or Jack Kerouac, what will they make of them?

Every time I read an article or hear about young people violating the rules, I'm thrilled. Good for them. My niece for example is traveling around Italy right now and having a wonderful time. Good for her too.

It fucking sucks for us Millennials too. Like most years of our lives

[vnatale]

How the Pandemic Defeated America: Ed Yong on How COVID-19 Humiliated Planet’s Most Powerful Nation

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/8/11/ ... s_response

[jalanlong]

https://youtu.be/oxznGIj8Ja0

[GT]

Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity — the point at which the virus can no longer spread because there are not enough vulnerable humans — scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought."

I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

[shekels]

Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity — the point at which the virus can no longer spread because there are not enough vulnerable humans — scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought."

I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

Looks Like the U.S. has peaked, varies by state.
We had Lock downs, So we did not overwhelm the hospitals..

It seems to me the majority of the population are going to be/ or have been exposed to the Virus.
Most people will survive the Covid virus.

It is the illness and death Rate that counts and we know who is at increased risk of severe illness from Covid.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

[WiseOne]

Here's an interesting take on the true impact of COVID....

Because of extreme variability in testing rates and criteria, COVID mortality is probably the most reliable indicator of the extent of the epidemic. Yet, this is problematic too. There are errors in case counts in both directions: people who died but were never tested, deaths wrongly attributed to COVID due to a positive test, deaths from "collateral damage" due to people delaying or forgoing care, and negative effects from the economic devastation wrought by lockdowns. There's also the question of how many COVID victims would have died anyway of something else, given the age distribution of deaths and association with medical conditions already known to predispose to most of the things that kill you e.g. cardiovascular disease.

I think the best way to examine the data is to look at excess deaths by month compared not to just last year, but the last several years (e.g. taking an average from the last 5 years). Turns out the Economist has been collecting exactly that data, and it's published on this website plus downloadable from GitHub:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... -countries

The subtitle is that deaths have been undercounted, but here's what I found interesting about the chart. In nearly all cities & countries, there was a lower than average death rate in the months prior to the COVID uptick. How much lower we don't know, because all lower rates are represented by a single color. It suggests to me that the flu was unusually light this past year, which would leave us with an unusually large population susceptible to COVID. Or, if COVID hadn't come along, next year's flu virus.

Second, there are two patterns in the rise of excess deaths. They are staggered across locations, as expected given the time required for the virus to take hold at each site. The ones affected earlier peaked and then started coming down, taking about 6 weeks to get through the period of >25% excess mortality. Afterwards, the mortality rates drop and become average to lower than average , once again suggesting that a substantial proportion of COVID deaths simply displaced deaths from other causes. The second pattern are areas that have a prolonged period of excess deaths and haven't yet returned to normal mortality rates (Mexico City, Peru, Ecuador, Jakarta). I assume this is some combination of genetic susceptibility (Hispanics are truly suffering disproportionately from COVID and it's not clear why) and slow spread in a given country that is hidden by the data averages, such as is happening in the U.S.

Missing from this chart is the extent of variability from "normal" mortality (zero on this chart), so that we can judge what is significantly higher or lower than normal. Recoloring this chart to show numbers not significantly different from zero (e.g. mean +/- 3 standard deviations) as their own color would have been super helpful. Otherwise, you can't really tell whether the US is showing currently increased mortality, or mortality within the expected range for this time of year. If I have some time to kill next weekend I might download that data and see if I can figure that out.

[dualstow]

Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity —
...
I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

We don’t have to die. We just have to sustain scarred lungs and mysterious random problems.

[pp4me]

Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity — the point at which the virus can no longer spread because there are not enough vulnerable humans — scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought."

I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

Looks Like the U.S. has peaked, varies by state.
We had Lock downs, So we did not overwhelm the hospitals..

It seems to me the majority of the population are going to be/ or have been exposed to the Virus.
Most people will survive the Covid virus.

It is the illness and death Rate that counts and we know who is at increased risk of severe illness from Covid.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

They are finally reporting in the news that Florida has peaked in both cases and deaths but I've been watching every day and the deaths have been decreasing for a long time. I'm sure there will be a lot of people trying to take credit for some policy or other that worked but my uneducated guess is that it's simply nature running its course.

As for herd immunity I've heard it could be as low as 20% and though I've not heard anybody say it my theory is that the reason it's so low is because there was more natural immunity than what was suggested in the beginning so if that was true for 50% of the people you would only need 20% to get COVID to get to 70%.

[glennds]

Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity —
...
I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

We don’t have to die. We just have to sustain scarred lungs and mysterious random problems.

If you accept 55% as the herd immunity threshold, then in the US, approximately 182MM would have to get it, and at a fatality rate of 3% in the US, about 5.4MM would die. Some speculate that in this scenario the fatality rate would be higher because the health care system would be overrun. I don't know if that's a valid concern, but either way, it would be a lot of death. The other 177.6MM might have scarred up lungs and mysterious random problems as you say.

If you feel that a different herd immunity threshold is more appropriate, then just re-do the math.

[jalanlong]

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/why-a ... l-covid-19

Any thoughts on the final summary statements that history will judge the shutdowns as the worst policy decision of our lifetimes?

[dualstow]

Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity —
...
I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

We don’t have to die. We just have to sustain scarred lungs and mysterious random problems.

If you accept 55% as the herd immunity threshold, then in the US, approximately 182MM would have to get it, and at a fatality rate of 3% in the US, about 5.4MM would die. Some speculate that in this scenario the fatality rate would be higher because the health care system would be overrun. I don't know if that's a valid concern, but either way, it would be a lot of death. The other 177.6MM might have scarred up lungs and mysterious random problems as you say.

If you feel that a different herd immunity threshold is more appropriate, then just re-do the math.

Thanks

[Cortopassi]

Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity —
...
I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

We don’t have to die. We just have to sustain scarred lungs and mysterious random problems.

If you accept 55% as the herd immunity threshold, then in the US, approximately 182MM would have to get it, and at a fatality rate of 3% in the US, about 5.4MM would die. Some speculate that in this scenario the fatality rate would be higher because the health care system would be overrun. I don't know if that's a valid concern, but either way, it would be a lot of death. The other 177.6MM might have scarred up lungs and mysterious random problems as you say.

If you feel that a different herd immunity threshold is more appropriate, then just re-do the math.

Thanks

That scenario is not possible. Measures would be taken way before. At the current rate of 1,000 deaths a day, to get to ~5.2MM would take 14 years! If anything, a vaccine will happen way before then.

[pp4me]

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/why-a ... l-covid-19

Any thoughts on the final summary statements that history will judge the shutdowns as the worst policy decision of our lifetimes?

I don't even need to read the summary statement to agree. I thought from the very first moment the lockdowns started that this was going to end up being the most FUBAR thing the government has done in my lifetime and that includes the war in Vietnam.

[Cortopassi]

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/why-a ... l-covid-19

Any thoughts on the final summary statements that history will judge the shutdowns as the worst policy decision of our lifetimes?

I don't even need to read the summary statement to agree. I thought from the very first moment the lockdowns started that this was going to end up being the most FUBAR thing the government has done in my lifetime and that includes the war in Vietnam.

Sweden, near zero deaths currently. Went for herd immunity model, correct? 5,700 deaths. Pop 10.2MM. Do the math, that corresponds to about 183,000 dead with the US's population, which we haven't hit yet.

Intangibles: Sweden's BMI is much lower. Obesity seems to be a major cofactor. They did not force mask wearing or social distancing, but were people more compliant there than the US (they do lean socialist/left, correct?) Less of the damn, you're not taking my freedom with a mask types?

I think there was nothing obvious early on that their model would be any better than the lockdown models many states did.

I suspect given the US's more varied population, and likely generally less healthy population would have made the current US death number significantly higher than it now is.

[Kriegsspiel]

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/why-a ... l-covid-19

Any thoughts on the final summary statements that history will judge the shutdowns as the worst policy decision of our lifetimes?

I don't even need to read the summary statement to agree. I thought from the very first moment the lockdowns started that this was going to end up being the most FUBAR thing the government has done in my lifetime and that includes the war in Vietnam.

I don't know if they were the worst decisions of my lifetime, at first. With the information we had at the time it wasn't the dumbest thing to say "hey, let's hunker down for a couple weeks just in case this is Shiva, Destroyer Of Worlds." But continuing authoritarian shutdowns and trampling of civil rights for half a year (+) while learning that it isn't, I suspect, is going to be judged pretty harshly in the future.

[Libertarian666]

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/why-a ... l-covid-19

Any thoughts on the final summary statements that history will judge the shutdowns as the worst policy decision of our lifetimes?

I don't even need to read the summary statement to agree. I thought from the very first moment the lockdowns started that this was going to end up being the most FUBAR thing the government has done in my lifetime and that includes the war in Vietnam.

I don't know if they were the worst decisions of my lifetime, at first. With the information we had at the time it wasn't the dumbest thing to say "hey, let's hunker down for a couple weeks just in case this is Shiva, Destroyer Of Worlds." But continuing authoritarian shutdowns and trampling of civil rights for half a year (+) while learning that it isn't, I suspect, is going to be judged pretty harshly in the future.

Yep.

[Cortopassi]

This is not a good sign for my daughter. I don't know how ND will be able to justify not going online if this continues. Goddamit.

[Tortoise]

When something reopens, that will imply a certain unavoidable increase in infections. Masks and distancing can reduce the rate of spread, but they can't prevent spreading altogether.

Do some people actually think it's possible to reopen businesses, schools, etc. without the number of infections rising?

[Cortopassi]

When something reopens, that will imply a certain unavoidable increase in infections. Masks and distancing can reduce the rate of spread, but they can't prevent spreading altogether.

Do some people actually think it's possible to reopen businesses, schools, etc. without the number of infections rising?

I hope they don't, but there's a lot out there that seem to want to accept only zero risk. Another thread, right?

So far the Facebook page for ND Covid is very moderate in tone. All parents seem to want to make this work and make sure their kids can stay there. So I feel good about that.

But I imagine the news will be talking about ND shortly just like they did UNC.

[jalanlong]

When something reopens, that will imply a certain unavoidable increase in infections. Masks and distancing can reduce the rate of spread, but they can't prevent spreading altogether.

Do some people actually think it's possible to reopen businesses, schools, etc. without the number of infections rising?

+1,000,000

I am thoroughly confused by people's seeming perplexity on how you can shelter citizens inside their homes, then let them out and viruses cases go up.

Our wonderful governor is fond of saying that a virus doesn't care if you have Covid fatigue and doesn't care if you want to return to the movies or get a haircut. I would turn it around and say a virus also doesn't care if you shut down for 3-12 weeks or not. It is not a shark that will move on if there is no food source available.

Unfortunately this way of thinking is why I have very little hope on this ending soon. If we continue to play the game of shutting things down, then reopening a bit, then acting surprised when cases spike, then shutting down again we will go on with this in perpetuity.

[Tortoise]

When something reopens, that will imply a certain unavoidable increase in infections. Masks and distancing can reduce the rate of spread, but they can't prevent spreading altogether.

Do some people actually think it's possible to reopen businesses, schools, etc. without the number of infections rising?

I hope they don't, but there's a lot out there that seem to want to accept only zero risk. Another thread, right?

So far the Facebook page for ND Covid is very moderate in tone. All parents seem to want to make this work and make sure their kids can stay there. So I feel good about that.

But I imagine the news will be talking about ND shortly just like they did UNC.

Also, note how the number of daily tests (the gray rectangle) increased by a factor of 20x from 8/16 to 8/17. That alone pretty much accounts for the "spike" in cases on 8/17. Shouldn't alarm anyone.

[WiseOne]

Also, note how the number of daily tests (the gray rectangle) increased by a factor of 20x from 8/16 to 8/17. That alone pretty much accounts for the "spike" in cases on 8/17. Shouldn't alarm anyone.

That's why looking at excess mortality is the fairest assessment of COVID impact. See my last post in this thread. The chart is well worth a look.

I agree that we are looking at a permanent cycle of reopen, see cases, close again, lather rinse repeat for the next year or two, I guess until a vaccine is sufficiently widely available and accepted for governors to declare victory. So silly...when did schools ever close because of the myriad of flu-like illnesses that come through every year? Kids are in greater danger from non-COVID viruses than from COVID, judging by the numbers. And in MUCH greater danger from cars and swimming pools.

We have truly lost our minds over this.

[jalanlong]

Also, note how the number of daily tests (the gray rectangle) increased by a factor of 20x from 8/16 to 8/17. That alone pretty much accounts for the "spike" in cases on 8/17. Shouldn't alarm anyone.

That's why looking at excess mortality is the fairest assessment of COVID impact. See my last post in this thread. The chart is well worth a look.

I agree that we are looking at a permanent cycle of reopen, see cases, close again, lather rinse repeat for the next year or two, I guess until a vaccine is sufficiently widely available and accepted for governors to declare victory. So silly...when did schools ever close because of the myriad of flu-like illnesses that come through every year? Kids are in greater danger from non-COVID viruses than from COVID, judging by the numbers. And in MUCH greater danger from cars and swimming pools.

We have truly lost our minds over this.

Last night I saw another indication this is not going to end soon. In line at a small grocery store, 2 women in front of me saw a sign that the cash register they were at accepted cash transactions. They began to berate the poor woman at the register, lecturing her on the dangers of accepting dirty cash, how they cannot believe as a company they would want to accept cash and how the cashier would feel if she brought germs home to her loved ones and they got sick. All of this while their cart was filled with $90+ worth of frozen waffles, orange juice and assorted pastries. They ended their spiel with "Its a crazy world right now" with zero sense of irony.

[Tortoise]

Last night I saw another indication this is not going to end soon. In line at a small grocery store, 2 women in front of me saw a sign that the cash register they were at accepted cash transactions. They began to berate the poor woman at the register, lecturing her on the dangers of accepting dirty cash, how they cannot believe as a company they would want to accept cash and how the cashier would feel if she brought germs home to her loved ones and they got sick. All of this while their cart was filled with $90+ worth of frozen waffles, orange juice and assorted pastries. They ended their spiel with "Its a crazy world right now" with zero sense of irony.

Seems like there could be a business opportunity here. I don't know if machines like this already exist, but imagine a small box with a glass cover that allows customers to see clearly inside of it. Any time there's a cash transaction, the customer would drop their cash into a slot in the top of the box, then the box would fill with "bright" UV light from all directions for several seconds. (This part could be designed to look very cool and impressive to customers.) The cashier would then open the box, transfer the sterilized cash to the register, place any change in the UV box to sterilize it, then the customer could take the sterilized change.

Doing that would delay each cash transaction by a few seconds, but probably not long enough to be prohibitive.