Gyroscopic Investing

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:55 am

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:25 am

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:17 amhttp://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... &ocid=iehp

Not overwhelming but still, most people are against school reopenings.

/Technically/, is seems that poll asked whether people agree with the federal government pressuring schools to reopen, which isn't the same as asking whether people believe schools should reopen.

Okay, 99+% of people probably want all levels of government everywhere to push as hard as they can on whatever those people want to have happen. There's basically no understanding of separation of powers anymore. But there may be people who believe that schools should reopen and also that the federal government shouldn't push them to.

I don't think the question was asked that way. If you check the survey it says:

Do you support or oppose each of the following fully opening for in-person instruction
for the beginning of the 2020 school year? K-12 schools
Strongly support 404 20%
Somewhat support 349 18%
Somewhat oppose 347 17%
Strongly oppose 710 36%
Don’t Know / No Opinion 182 9%


This one scares me:

Which of the following comes closest to your opinion?
Americans should continue to social distance for as
long as is needed to curb the spread of coronavirus even
if it means continued damage to the economy
1506 76%

Americans should stop social distancing to stimulate
the economy even if it means increasing the spread of
coronavirus
312 16%

Don’t know / No opinion 175 9%

I stand corrected. The MSN article certainly frames the whole thing as a rebuke of the President's policies. But what else is new.

Very scary stuff. Safety-ism may be the most dangerous thing out there right now.

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:59 am

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:55 am

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:25 am

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:17 amhttp://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... &ocid=iehp

Not overwhelming but still, most people are against school reopenings.

/Technically/, is seems that poll asked whether people agree with the federal government pressuring schools to reopen, which isn't the same as asking whether people believe schools should reopen.

Okay, 99+% of people probably want all levels of government everywhere to push as hard as they can on whatever those people want to have happen. There's basically no understanding of separation of powers anymore. But there may be people who believe that schools should reopen and also that the federal government shouldn't push them to.

I don't think the question was asked that way. If you check the survey it says:

Do you support or oppose each of the following fully opening for in-person instruction
for the beginning of the 2020 school year? K-12 schools
Strongly support 404 20%
Somewhat support 349 18%
Somewhat oppose 347 17%
Strongly oppose 710 36%
Don’t Know / No Opinion 182 9%


This one scares me:

Which of the following comes closest to your opinion?
Americans should continue to social distance for as
long as is needed to curb the spread of coronavirus even
if it means continued damage to the economy
1506 76%

Americans should stop social distancing to stimulate
the economy even if it means increasing the spread of
coronavirus
312 16%

Don’t know / No opinion 175 9%

I stand corrected. The MSN article certainly frames the whole thing as a rebuke of the President's policies. But what else is new.

Very scary stuff. Safety-ism may be the most dangerous thing out there right now.

I can't help but get the feeling that the 76% who don't mind the damage to the economy have just not felt said damage themselves yet. Maybe they are government workers, maybe they are high level workers who can telecommute or maybe they did get laid off but are making more from all of the stimulus and additional unemployment than they were before. I don't know how long they can go on being unaffected. i mean I guess you could keep stimulus checks, unemployment checks and foreclosure relief going in perpetuity.

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:17 pmI can't help but get the feeling that the 76% who don't mind the damage to the economy have just not felt said damage themselves yet. Maybe they are government workers, maybe they are high level workers who can telecommute or maybe they did get laid off but are making more from all of the stimulus and additional unemployment than they were before. I don't know how long they can go on being unaffected. i mean I guess you could keep stimulus checks, unemployment checks and foreclosure relief going in perpetuity.

If we could, wouldn't that mean that all those people's jobs were useless?

Also, I'm sure that people who want to keep things shut are saying "those people who care about the economy more than people being sick just haven't felt the illness's damage themselves yet". It's all perspective, I suppose.

I want to say again that this is about far more than just "the economy". This is society. Schools need to be open not just to be day-cares so people can work, but so the next generation of people can be educated. People need to go to church. They need to have friends. Actual, in-person relationships with actual people. This is IMPORTANT.

Our school district here in a suburb of Indianapolis (22k students k-12) conducted a survey of families with kids in school regarding their preference for remote or in-person classes. With a 50% response rate, just 10% indicated that they wanted remote classes. School is currently scheduled to start on time 8/5 though they are still determining whether to implement a hybrid 3/2 day rotation of students to reduce density.

Just another data point.

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:18 pm
Also, I'm sure that people who want to keep things shut are saying "those people who care about the economy more than people being sick just haven't felt the illness's damage themselves yet". It's all perspective, I suppose.

But statistically speaking I am much more likely to feel damage (both short term and long term) of an economic depression than I am of a virus. The hospitalization rate of Covid is 4.6 out of every 100,000. I would suspect an economic depression would affect far more people.

The federal Cares Act $600/week unemployment benefit expires later this month, so there's that.

I suspect a lot of the people who have been receiving that benefit will start reconsidering their position on lockdowns when that extra dough stops rolling in.

With all of the contradictory information about questionable tightly-controlled studies that never seem to test the same treatments that doctors in the field recommend, have you ever wondered what might happen to overall death rates when an entire country temporarily bans the use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19?



More info here: https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/s ... se-n643181

Tyler wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:56 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:42 pm Both, really. Scooter riders will often wear a mask in Taipei because they sit behind the tailpipes of trucks all day, but you will also see masks on planes, on buses and in doctor's offices for more biological reasons.

Fair enough. I personally never really saw them on planes or in the areas I would frequent, but to be fair everyday life could be different beyond my own sphere of experience.

I lived in a small town for a while, and there I didn't see it much. But, two years straight in Taipei in the 90s, and subsequent visits to Taiwan and the mainland. I'm not saying I've seen tons of masks, though. I would just say it's not uncommon.

Edited for abysmal typing

Tyler wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:26 pm With all of the contradictory information about questionable tightly-controlled studies that never seem to test the same treatments that doctors in the field recommend, have you ever wondered what might happen to overall death rates when an entire country temporarily bans the use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19?

I think the worse thing that could have happened for hydroxychloroquine was when Donald Trump talked about it and Laura Ingraham featured it on Fox News. It was all about politics and not medicine from that point forward, though I don't blame them for it.

Laura Ingraham had some very convincing doctors on her show who had used it successfully so I was really surprised when all of the negative stuff started coming out.

Goddamit does everything have to be political? Is there no one without a hard right or hard left agenda?

To the lefties, I would say, send kids back to school. You have to assume there will never be an effective vaccine. Live with it and be safe, but not to the point of complete disruption. Or are you really going to lock yourself away forever?

To the righties, I would say, just wear a damn mask whether you think it helps or not. At a minimum if you all do, and two weeks from now the case rate does not drop, well then what BS are the lefties going to have left to pull out of their ass? They weren't wearing them right? They were 5 feet apart and not 6?

This, I would say, is what the majority of people are thinking. Tell me if I am wrong. But no, all we hear are the extreme right and left sides and I am sick of it.

Mine is hard and center-right.

Relax everyone that's a DICK JOKE not a political thing.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:40 pm Goddamit does everything have to be political? Is there no one without a hard right or hard left agenda?

To the lefties, I would say, send kids back to school. You have to assume there will never be an effective vaccine. Live with it and be safe, but not to the point of complete disruption. Or are you really going to lock yourself away forever?

To the righties, I would say, just wear a damn mask whether you think it helps or not. At a minimum if you all do, and two weeks from now the case rate does not drop, well then what BS are the lefties going to have left to pull out of their ass? They weren't wearing them right? They were 5 feet apart and not 6?

This, I would say, is what the majority of people are thinking. Tell me if I am wrong. But no, all we hear are the extreme right and left sides and I am sick of it.

vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:45 pm

Capture.JPG

Well, it was made in China.

vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:45 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:40 pm Goddamit does everything have to be political? Is there no one without a hard right or hard left agenda?

To the lefties, I would say, send kids back to school. You have to assume there will never be an effective vaccine. Live with it and be safe, but not to the point of complete disruption. Or are you really going to lock yourself away forever?

To the righties, I would say, just wear a damn mask whether you think it helps or not. At a minimum if you all do, and two weeks from now the case rate does not drop, well then what BS are the lefties going to have left to pull out of their ass? They weren't wearing them right? They were 5 feet apart and not 6?

This, I would say, is what the majority of people are thinking. Tell me if I am wrong. But no, all we hear are the extreme right and left sides and I am sick of it.

Capture.JPG

Medical office memo.

.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:40 pm Goddamit does everything have to be political? Is there no one without a hard right or hard left agenda?

To the lefties, I would say, send kids back to school. You have to assume there will never be an effective vaccine. Live with it and be safe, but not to the point of complete disruption. Or are you really going to lock yourself away forever?

To the righties, I would say, just wear a damn mask whether you think it helps or not. At a minimum if you all do, and two weeks from now the case rate does not drop, well then what BS are the lefties going to have left to pull out of their ass? They weren't wearing them right? They were 5 feet apart and not 6?

This, I would say, is what the majority of people are thinking. Tell me if I am wrong. But no, all we hear are the extreme right and left sides and I am sick of it.

Along those lines....it would be worth if it we could all cope with faithfully wearing masks for 2 weeks. Just to prove how ridiculous is the latest claim by the CDC that the coronavirus would be eliminated if that were to occur.

I am satisfied, by the way, that there is enough anecdotal evidence to support mask wearing indoors in situations with likely prolonged and close-quarter contact with other people - realizing that the mechanism is to reduce (not eliminate) spread FROM people who are shedding enough virus to infect others. That is, the mask will greatly reduce droplet spread. It probably does little to reduce aerosol spread, and it may encourage people who are sick to go out. Most transmission is from people exhibiting symptoms. Staying home if you're sick is likely to be much more effective than wearing a mask, and that should be the first line of defense.

I hope that clarifies my view. You can decide if that's "hard right". It's definitely not hard left.

I am not saying anyone here is necessarily hard left or right (but there are examples...)

I have at least one friend who has quit Facebook over this. When I look at my feed (rarely) it is completely populated by those who say masks are BS, Covid is just the flu on one side and and those who don't think school should ever start until there's a vaccine on the other.

These are people who'd get along fine in normal situations, but this has exposed some major differences which I fear won't be healed easily. Which is why I continue to try to tread in the middle, and except for this forum, I stay totally silent.

Russian 'Cozy Bear' hackers targeting Covid vaccine technology

Coronavirus: Russian spies target Covid-19 vaccine research
By Gordon Corera & Chris Fox
BBC News

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53429506

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:40 pm Goddamit does everything have to be political? Is there no one without a hard right or hard left agenda?

{raises hand}

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:58 am I am not saying anyone here is necessarily hard left or right (but there are examples...)

I have at least one friend who has quit Facebook over this. When I look at my feed (rarely) it is completely populated by those who say masks are BS, Covid is just the flu on one side and and those who don't think school should ever start until there's a vaccine on the other.

These are people who'd get along fine in normal situations, but this has exposed some major differences which I fear won't be healed easily. Which is why I continue to try to tread in the middle, and except for this forum, I stay totally silent.

Yeah, I totally understand your frustration. The combination of life-altering lockdowns and an election year is the perfect storm to drive lots of people crazy. Even for those with level heads, it's really hard to avoid the people who are all-in on one narrative or another. It's exhausting.

But seriously, you should probably avoid Facebook regardless.

On a lighter note...

Protestors in Victoria and policemans reaction 1:55 mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyQcmo16Geg


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-4P1WPE-Qg

One of the things that frustrates me the most about this whole situation is the moving goalposts for reopening, or the lack of any goalposts at all. I think that contributes to all of the emotional reactions. Has anyone anywhere actually articulated a set of metrics for reopening?

An analogy many of us here are familiar with is that when you pull your money out of the stock market, how do you know when to get back in? So glad I've moved past that dilemma!

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:30 am One of the things that frustrates me the most about this whole situation is the moving goalposts for reopening, or the lack of any goalposts at all. I think that contributes to all of the emotional reactions. Has anyone anywhere actually articulated a set of metrics for reopening?

Sure. When it's "safe". Given that walking out of your cocoon, oops I mean home can never be guaranteed safe, reopening will not happen until people decide en masse just to do it and to heck with the rules. I give that about another 6 - 8 months....doubt very much it will take a year.

I'm not sure what will happen to schools and other government institutions though. They may continue to operate in "safe" mode for years. In which case private alternatives, like homeschool groups, will naturally spring up. That will be delightful to watch.

"Safe? This is obviously some strange usage of the word 'safe' that I wasn't previously aware of."

--- Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams

WiseOne wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:57 am

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:30 am One of the things that frustrates me the most about this whole situation is the moving goalposts for reopening, or the lack of any goalposts at all. I think that contributes to all of the emotional reactions. Has anyone anywhere actually articulated a set of metrics for reopening?

Sure. When it's "safe". Given that walking out of your cocoon, oops I mean home can never be guaranteed safe, reopening will not happen until people decide en masse just to do it and to heck with the rules. I give that about another 6 - 8 months....doubt very much it will take a year.

I'm not sure what will happen to schools and other government institutions though. They may continue to operate in "safe" mode for years. In which case private alternatives, like homeschool groups, will naturally spring up. That will be delightful to watch.

"Safe? This is obviously some strange usage of the word 'safe' that I wasn't previously aware of."

--- Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams

What's really frustrating right now is that we were set to start private school in the fall, and the school wants to be open, in person. The public school decided they'd do online only for the first three weeks. (As an aside, I think they're leading people on and have no intention of opening after that.) The NEXT DAY, the local health authority banned ALL schools from being open for those three weeks.

This is an excerpt from 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, one of my all-time favorite books.

This guidance helps me proactively deal with frustration and control issues. Perhaps it may help others in dealing with the hard left, hard right, cancel culture, social unrest, mask or no mask, Covid-19, etc. issues. The first step in dealing with a problem is to recognize the problem. Many times the problem is me: my paradigms and my desire to be in control.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/n3ws9p5pljunq ... 6.pdf?dl=0

WiseOne wrote: ↑Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:57 am I give that about another 6 - 8 months....doubt very much it will take a year.

Yeah, that's the good thing. There will be an end to this one way or the other. It can't keep on this way forever.