Coronavirus General Discussion

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dualstow
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:51 pm

technovelist wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:50 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:41 am
technovelist wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:57 am
Rudy Giuliani has a very simple rule: As soon as the first bottle or rock is thrown at a protest, start the arrests.
That calms things down very quickly.
As for looters, they need to be shot. Then it doesn't take long for them to figure out it's not a good idea.
They were talking about Giuliani last night (back in the good old days when he was sane) and how he arrested everyone on the bridge. 700 people was the number given. I don't know if it's accurate, but it was every last person. They did not come back.
I heard Giuliani himself on TV recently, I believe this weekend, and he explained that same event in the same way.
He seemed perfectly sane to me.
He still has his moments. :-)
RIP Charlie Daniels
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:39 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:25 am

At least a lot of the protesters were wearing masks!

However, that IS a major difference between this current civil unrest compared to prior. Now it is accepted practice for perpetrators of violence to cover their faces while they do what they do.

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:03 pm

For anyone interested, in follow up to how our early reopening in AZ has been going, our daily new cases are now double than what they were prior to the reopening. Our deaths and hospital bed metrics have also been trending badly. In Maricopa county we are currently at a 4.25% death rate. Not looking good so far. I imagine with the protests congregating people in public every day that things are only going to continue to get worse, and it is likely that we max out our available hospital beds in the next couple of weeks.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tyler » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:06 pm

This is horrifying from a scientific perspective, but it’s looking increasingly likely that the Lancet paper that concluded hydroxychloroquine harms Covid-19 patients and precipitated the end of further studies was based on fraudulent data by a scam company.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... hloroquine
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technovelist
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by technovelist » Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:09 pm

Tyler wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:06 pm
This is horrifying from a scientific perspective, but it’s looking increasingly likely that the Lancet paper that concluded hydroxychloroquine harms Covid-19 patients and precipitated the end of further studies was based on fraudulent data by a scam company.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... hloroquine
Imagine my shock that a treatment using a drug that has been considered safe enough to give to pregnant women and was recommended by Orange Hitler would have been misrepresented!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:39 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:03 pm
Our deaths and hospital bed metrics have also been trending badly. In Maricopa county we are currently at a 4.25% death rate. Not looking good so far.
Where are you getting hospitalization stats from?
Some 5500 years ago, before writing was invented to record it, the people of the city of Hamoukar, near rich copper mines, were subjected to the first known instance of urban warfare when an army from the city of Uruk attacked and fought their way through the streets, killing most everyone.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:17 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:39 pm
pmward wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:03 pm
Our deaths and hospital bed metrics have also been trending badly. In Maricopa county we are currently at a 4.25% death rate. Not looking good so far.
Where are you getting hospitalization stats from?
Our state department of health website.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:27 pm

Hospitalizations look like they're trending down. I'm looking here.
1654.png
1654.png (69.71 KiB) Viewed 221 times
Some 5500 years ago, before writing was invented to record it, the people of the city of Hamoukar, near rich copper mines, were subjected to the first known instance of urban warfare when an army from the city of Uruk attacked and fought their way through the streets, killing most everyone.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:31 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:27 pm
Hospitalizations look like they're trending down. I'm looking here.

1654.png
You're looking at percent of cases hospitalized, not percent of ICU beds taken. We are currently at 83% of ICU beds taken, and with increasing cases and the protests that's not a good thing. Also, that website does have a few day lag sometimes, it's the only one I can find the hospitalization stats, but the actual case stats always seem to populate on other sites first. They tend to show lower than others on that site, then a few days later bump up to the levels reported everywhere else.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by sophie » Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:55 pm

Are you and Kriegspiel looking at the same data? I don't see a recent spike in cases in the plot that Kriegspiel posted, either.

Deaths tend to lag hospital admissions by a few weeks, since obviously dying of COVID can take a bit of time. Similarly, ICU cases can lag new cases. This lag can cause the #s to be misleading if you're using it to gauge the effect of reopening.

btw regarding hydroxychloroquine - there was an NEJM article that I posted that was written by physicians at a New York hospital using its own data. No shady companies involved. It was an observational study showing no difference in outcomes between HC treated vs non-treated cases, after correcting for things like initial case severity. From that you conclude that if there is a benefit to hydroxychloroquine it was too small to detect. By the same token though, if hydroxychloroquine had an adverse effect it was also too small to detect - either that, or it balanced any positive effects.

Shame on WHO for ignoring that study.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pmward » Wed Jun 03, 2020 4:23 pm

sophie wrote:
Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:55 pm
Are you and Kriegspiel looking at the same data? I don't see a recent spike in cases in the plot that Kriegspiel posted, either.

Deaths tend to lag hospital admissions by a few weeks, since obviously dying of COVID can take a bit of time. Similarly, ICU cases can lag new cases. This lag can cause the #s to be misleading if you're using it to gauge the effect of reopening.
See below for new cases graph for AZ. And this doesn't account for the +~900 we had reported today. So yeah, my main point is that at 83% ICU capacity, with cases increasing like this, and the protests we have had here every single day lately, I do have some concerns of that case count jumping even higher in the next 2 weeks. This spike in cases shown on the graph haven't made their way into ICU bed or death statistics yet, as there is that lag you mentioned. We have been opened for 3 weeks now, so this week, and that spike on the graph, are basically the new infections that happened just in the very first week we opened up. We've also been consistently over 100 degree temps here, so the hope of heat killing the virus are kind of dashed... We will see how it plays out. At what point does a state have to consider lockdown round 2? I don't know the answer myself, but AZ may be a state to watch as that debate could happen in the near future.

* should also mention that the native population in AZ is not accounted for in this data, and they have been having a real hard time with the virus...

Screen Shot 2020-06-03 at 2.20.29 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-06-03 at 2.20.29 PM.png (206.74 KiB) Viewed 198 times
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sophie
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by sophie » Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:44 pm

Yes, I see, that is possibly a spike in new cases recently.

You have to realize though, that new cases will also increase with more testing. In New York, that became so obvious that the governor stopped looking at new cases and focused on new hospitalizations, which is about the only measure that could be expected to stay consistent. If you can find that in the Arizona data it would be much more reliable indicator.

Also, Arizona started reopening May 8, but the increase in cases is just the past few days. I would expect a 2 week lag, but it's been a month.
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