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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:59 am
by I Shrugged
People I know in Arizona told me that during the whole time of stay at home, if you went into a Home Depot or Lowes, only 1 in 20 people were wearing masks. Including store personnel. And the stores were very busy. So I can imagine that once general society actually opened up, people were not going to be taking any precautions.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:39 am
by WiseOne
It appears COVID may have been spreading in China as early as last August:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/heal ... jem10point

If that's true, then it had to be in Europe, NY, and all international travel hubs by last fall at the latest. It occurs to me that last fall was a particularly bad flu season, attributed to the vaccine being a wrong guess as to the dominant type of flu. I bet it was actually a mix of COVID and flu.

It looks like NYC cases have continued to decrease (see https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page) despite the combination of Memorial Day, 2 weeks of mass protests/riots, yesterday's reopening which was preceded by many businesses stepping up their game without the state's blessing, and a general increase in the numbers of people who are just over it and are heading outside to enjoy the early summer weather.

I'm not surprised that the disease will continue to spread slowly, finding pockets of vulnerable populations here and there - and it has nothing to do with the reopenings. I bet Arizona's problem is the large number of Hispanic migrants. They are uniquely vulnerable to COVID, along with black populations, for reasons that can be guessed at but aren't really known. They may also not be doing enough to protect their nursing homes. You might want to see if a breakdown by race/ethnicity/age of hospitalized cases is available. Also make sure it's hospital cases as that's the only reliable measure given the effect of increased testing.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:57 am
by Libertarian666
WiseOne wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:39 am
It appears COVID may have been spreading in China as early as last August:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/heal ... jem10point

If that's true, then it had to be in Europe, NY, and all international travel hubs by last fall at the latest. It occurs to me that last fall was a particularly bad flu season, attributed to the vaccine being a wrong guess as to the dominant type of flu. I bet it was actually a mix of COVID and flu.

It looks like NYC cases have continued to decrease (see https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page) despite the combination of Memorial Day, 2 weeks of mass protests/riots, yesterday's reopening which was preceded by many businesses stepping up their game without the state's blessing, and a general increase in the numbers of people who are just over it and are heading outside to enjoy the early summer weather.

I'm not surprised that the disease will continue to spread slowly, finding pockets of vulnerable populations here and there - and it has nothing to do with the reopenings. I bet Arizona's problem is the large number of Hispanic migrants. They are uniquely vulnerable to COVID, along with black populations, for reasons that can be guessed at but aren't really known. They may also not be doing enough to protect their nursing homes. You might want to see if a breakdown by race/ethnicity/age of hospitalized cases is available. Also make sure it's hospital cases as that's the only reliable measure given the effect of increased testing.
Aren't deaths a fairly reliable measure? I realize they have an average lag of two or three weeks.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:47 am
by Kriegsspiel
WiseOne wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:39 am
It occurs to me that last fall was a particularly bad flu season, attributed to the vaccine being a wrong guess as to the dominant type of flu. I bet it was actually a mix of COVID and flu.
I'd bet you're right.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:47 am
by Kriegsspiel
Image

Heh

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:52 am
by Xan
WiseOne wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:39 am
If that's true, then it had to be in Europe, NY, and all international travel hubs by last fall at the latest. It occurs to me that last fall was a particularly bad flu season, attributed to the vaccine being a wrong guess as to the dominant type of flu. I bet it was actually a mix of COVID and flu.
It very well may be true, but they seem to be determining that COVID started earlier by examining how busy Wuhan hospitals were. That fact could also be explained by a particularly bad flu season. Unless the hospital busy-ness were only in Wuhan and not in other cities. I haven't seen an analysis of non-Wuhan hospitals. So who knows.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:02 am
by vnatale
I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:59 am
People I know in Arizona told me that during the whole time of stay at home, if you went into a Home Depot or Lowes, only 1 in 20 people were wearing masks. Including store personnel. And the stores were very busy. So I can imagine that once general society actually opened up, people were not going to be taking any precautions.
Still here in Massachusetts wherever I've been in the public I've been seeing 100% mask compliance (last Friday I went to Stop & Shop, only my third time out in the public since mid-March).

Vinny

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:11 am
by Cortopassi
Study abroad at all sites have been cancelled by Notre Dame. My daughter was supposed to go to Dublin.

So many ripple effects from this damn lockdown. Now they have to figure out how to fit 400 more students that were going to be away -- in grad dorms, off campus housing, etc. And my daughter is part of this shit.

And who knows how much football revenue Notre Dame and these other big time sports programs are going to lose.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:20 am
by pmward
AND the WHO was real quick to walk back that statement that asymptomatic spreading was rare... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/worl ... dates.html

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:44 am
by WiseOne
My friend's son, who is an FDNY paramedic, tested positive for COVID antibodies. He was never sick. My friend tested negative for antibodies. She would be considered in a high risk group because of her age, though she has no other risk factors.

They had a lot of contact with each other the last couple of months. He brought over his sick cat because he was working crazy hours and couldn't take care of her. This happened right around the beginning of the lockdown, and he visited frequently throughout to check on his cat (and his mom).

A piece of data about asymptomatic transmission for whatever it's worth.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:01 pm
by stuper1
WiseOne wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:44 am
My friend's son, who is an FDNY paramedic, tested positive for COVID antibodies. He was never sick. My friend tested negative for antibodies. She would be considered in a high risk group because of her age, though she has no other risk factors.

They had a lot of contact with each other the last couple of months. He brought over his sick cat because he was working crazy hours and couldn't take care of her. This happened right around the beginning of the lockdown, and he visited frequently throughout to check on his cat (and his mom).

A piece of data about asymptomatic transmission for whatever it's worth.
Serious question: Was the cat sick with COVID-19?

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:44 pm
by WiseOne
Interesting question!

The cat had renal failure and loss of appetite. She got better with a shot of antibiotics and an appetite stimulant that I brought over - happened to have it left over from a sick cat episode of my own. No way to know if that was it, but the cat was a rescue who was thin/scrawny/sick when found.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:14 pm
by Maddy
This hour-long video, which just hit the internet, blew me away. A nurse from New York's Elmhurst Hospital, the "epicenter of the epicenter," describes in detail what's really going on--which in a nutshell boils down to nothing short of murder. I guarantee this video will be well worth your time, but it's likely to be taken down soon, so I'd recommend viewing it now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIDsKdeFOmQ

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:43 am
by Kriegsspiel
Image

The (scientifically) correct one.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:36 am
by dualstow
😂
And a wise one at that, in my opinion.
Essentials.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:46 pm
by WiseOne
re dualstow's signature
For more NYC misery, google “Rashid Brimmage”
Ah that wonderful bail reform law....this is just one of the many consequences. Too bad the mainstream papers ignored it. Can't have people drawing a line between Cuomo/deBlasio's actions and stories like this.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:21 am
by pp4me
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:43 am
Image

The (scientifically) correct one.
That looks like one ply stuff we now have a bunch of. Not sure whether to throw it away or save it for the second or third wave.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:58 am
by Libertarian666
pp4me wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:21 am
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:43 am
Image

The (scientifically) correct one.
That looks like one ply stuff we now have a bunch of. Not sure whether to throw it away or save it for the second or third wave.
I'd hang onto it unless you are very tight for space. Better to have 1-ply than no plies!

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:48 pm
by Kriegsspiel
It looks like he went for the Bud heavies, but maybe the Coors? Probably not relevant, but... you never know. The Wuhan works in mysterious ways.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:26 pm
by dualstow
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:48 pm
It looks like he went for the Bud heavies, but maybe the Coors? Probably not relevant, but... you never know. The Wuhan works in mysterious ways.
Whenever you write “the Wuhan” my brain hears “You don’t mess with the...”

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:42 pm
by Kriegsspiel
YOU GET ME

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:19 pm
by Tortoise
This study (pre-print abstract only, not yet peer reviewed or published) found something quite interesting and unexpected: Some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 apparently develop T-cell responses to it without the corresponding B-cell antibody production, meaning even though they test negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies they have still in fact developed immunity to it.

If this finding is true, one implication is that testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies doesn't necessarily mean you haven't developed immunity. Another implication is that antibody prevalence in serology surveys may underestimate the number of people who have developed immunity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20132449v1

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:03 pm
by Libertarian666
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:19 pm
This study (pre-print abstract only, not yet peer reviewed or published) found something quite interesting and unexpected: Some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 apparently develop T-cell responses to it without the corresponding B-cell antibody production, meaning even though they test negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies they have still in fact developed immunity to it.

If this finding is true, one implication is that testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies doesn't necessarily mean you haven't developed immunity. Another implication is that antibody prevalence in serology surveys may underestimate the number of people who have developed immunity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20132449v1
Very interesting!

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:58 pm
by Mark Leavy
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:19 pm
This study (pre-print abstract only, not yet peer reviewed or published) found something quite interesting and unexpected: Some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 apparently develop T-cell responses to it without the corresponding B-cell antibody production, meaning even though they test negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies they have still in fact developed immunity to it.

If this finding is true, one implication is that testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies doesn't necessarily mean you haven't developed immunity. Another implication is that antibody prevalence in serology surveys may underestimate the number of people who have developed immunity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20132449v1
Thanks! And, well, shoot.
I had negative results from an antibody test last week.
Now, I know even less than I did before.

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Posted: Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:15 am
by Libertarian666
Mark Leavy wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:58 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:19 pm
This study (pre-print abstract only, not yet peer reviewed or published) found something quite interesting and unexpected: Some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 apparently develop T-cell responses to it without the corresponding B-cell antibody production, meaning even though they test negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies they have still in fact developed immunity to it.

If this finding is true, one implication is that testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies doesn't necessarily mean you haven't developed immunity. Another implication is that antibody prevalence in serology surveys may underestimate the number of people who have developed immunity.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20132449v1
Thanks! And, well, shoot.
I had negative results from an antibody test last week.
Now, I know even less than I did before.
Same here, although it was a couple of weeks ago.
Maybe they'll be able to figure out a way to use T-cells in mass testing to get a better handle on this issue.