Gyroscopic Investing

pp4me wrote: ↑Mon May 25, 2020 8:58 am

Xan wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 7:24 pm "Scientists and Doctors" may (or may not be) right as far as the science and medicine, but they certainly have no special place at the policy-making table where laws are made, or at the kitchen table where personal decisions are made.

They have an input, sure, but any policy recommendations they make are far from infallible, in fact, their recommendations will only be from one perspective without counting the costs involved from any other side.

When I hear people say we have to listen to the Scientists and Doctors I believe what they really mean is we have to listen to the government. There are plenty of scientist and doctors who disagree with Fauci and Birx on a number of matters but we aren't supposed to listen them - only those who are government approved.

Agree.

Still thinking about the article that Mountaineer posted. I would venture to guess that years of quality life lost from the lockdown greatly exceeds that of coronavirus, given the difference in age & health status between the two affected populations. It is mind-boggling to me that the subject is still being studiously avoided by most of the mainstream press, except for a few WSJ articles.

Schiff quotes Harry Browne

As former Libertarian leader Harry Browne once said:

Government breaks your leg, and then hands you a crutch and says, “See, if it weren’t for us, you wouldn’t be able to walk.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black ... -territory

So, we can see where this is going. Debt and monetary expansion look almost certain to increase. The dollar may eventually buckle under the weight, dragging the bond market down with it. It’s hard to say what the economy will look like once the bill comes due, but investors have plenty of warning. They should use the current period, where the dollar has yet to fall, to consider holdings that may provide real protection.

If his thesis is correct, do you think a US PP would function if both cash and the bond market fall?

Remember when California's government filled the beach's skate parks with sand to prevent skaters from using them while the beaches were closed?

Apparently they didn't bother to clear the sand back out when the beaches reopened (because why would they?), so some skaters joined together and did it themselves using buckets.

I think, ironically, a failure of the U.S. bond market and the dollar would precipitate the greatest period of outperformance for the PP. Ever.

And Libertarian666 would be the richest man in Texas.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 3:17 pm Remember when California's government filled the beach's skate parks with sand to prevent skaters from using them while the beaches were closed?

Apparently they didn't bother to clear the sand back out when the beaches reopened (because why would they?), so some skaters joined together and did it themselves using buckets.

Sadly predictable. It's like every other time, when you do something to fuck with people, you don't undo it until the last possible second.

On the other hand, it's happily predictable that skaters are still DIY as hell and they just take matters into their own hands. (Similar to BMX riders: link 1 and link 2)

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed May 27, 2020 3:38 pm I think, ironically, a failure of the U.S. bond market and the dollar would precipitate the greatest period of outperformance for the PP. Ever.

And Libertarian666 would be the richest man in Texas.

I doubt I'd be the richest man in Texas, because I'm pretty sure there are people here who have 1% in gold who still have more ounces than I do.
But I might get the award for "biggest portfolio improvement during a hyperinflation"!

Remember the article I posted a while back about how the largest spikes in covid cases could be traced to "superspreader" events? Like Mardi Gras in New Orleans, or jam packed airports in NYC.

In the images of both protests and riots, I see lots of people congregating in close quarters and shouting. You might recall that forceful loud speaking/singing is exactly why that choir practice in Seattle became a superspreader event.

I predict that by next weekend, COVID cases are going to start spiking in blue cities, and the lockdowns will descend again on the Monday after.

I'm also curious why the blue state governors like Cuomo have suddenly forgotten about their own executive orders prohibiting large gatherings.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:44 am

WiseOne wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:40 am Remember the article I posted a while back about how the largest spikes in covid cases could be traced to "superspreader" events? Like Mardi Gras in New Orleans, or jam packed airports in NYC.

In the images of both protests and riots, I see lots of people congregating in close quarters and shouting. You might recall that forceful loud speaking/singing is exactly why that choir practice in Seattle became a superspreader event.

I predict that by next weekend, COVID cases are going to start spiking in blue cities, and the lockdowns will descend again on the Monday after.

I'm also curious why the blue state governors like Cuomo have suddenly forgotten about their own executive orders prohibiting large gatherings.

Oh, that's an easy one: they think that the riots will make it more difficult for Trump to be re-elected, which is their number one goal, regardless of the destruction caused.

I don't think they are correct.

And the governors are supposed to do what? Say pretty please stay indoors? Shoot people?

I was asking my wife this earlier, and there's no good answer. How does this end? If the looting and damage continues, really, what can the government do? Do you start shooting? While the actions are terrible, if it ever comes to that, I cannot imagine the results.

At least a lot of the protesters were wearing masks!

Or we see no discernible spike, which is more data.

There are many non-lethal tactics that can be employed:

-Strict Curfew at dusk

-More boots on the ground than looters

-Tear gas and Water cannons

-Mass arrests

All of those, however, depend upon local leadership determined to keep the peace.

Newsflash: Petitions are being circulated to recall the mayor of Minneapolis and the governor of Minnesota for failing to carry out their oaths of office.

jhogue wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:45 am There are many non-lethal tactics that can be employed:

-Strict Curfew at dusk

-More boots on the ground than looters

-Tear gas and Water cannons

-Mass arrests

All of those, however, depend upon local leadership determined to keep the peace.

Newsflash: Petitions are being circulated to recall the mayor of Minneapolis and the governor of Minnesota for failing to carry out their oaths of office.

Rudy Giuliani has a very simple rule: As soon as the first bottle or rock is thrown at a protest, start the arrests.
That calms things down very quickly.
As for looters, they need to be shot. Then it doesn't take long for them to figure out it's not a good idea.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:25 am If the looting and damage continues, really, what can the government do?

Same as was done to control past riots, I suppose: make use of the National Guard. You're probably right that the Guard can't stop people from behaving like thugs, but they can contain the damage while they get whatever it is out of their systems. Plus all the things that jhogue mentioned, plus taking federal action against organizing groups like Antifa (if they are in fact instigating the riots). Regardless though, past riots have lasted about a week so presumably this one will follow the same course.

The governors should at least warn publicly that these mass gatherings are going to spread COVID among the demonstrators. It might convince some of them to find other ways to express their opinions.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:57 am Rudy Giuliani has a very simple rule: As soon as the first bottle or rock is thrown at a protest, start the arrests.
That calms things down very quickly.
As for looters, they need to be shot. Then it doesn't take long for them to figure out it's not a good idea.

They were talking about Giuliani last night (back in the good old days when he was sane) and how he arrested everyone on the bridge. 700 people was the number given. I don't know if it's accurate, but it was every last person. They did not come back.

The ideas to calm thing s.....

Don't equate peaceful protests with looting / rioting.

Police don't excelate peaceful protests.

Some protests doing better than others on social distancing and mask wearing.

Recognize that there are real grievances. Stop murdering black people.

Who hacked Dieter's account?
Dieter, what do you think of Xan's linked documents here? ⇢ viewtopic.php?f=9&t=10769&p=198008#p197993

WiseOne wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:40 am Remember the article I posted a while back about how the largest spikes in covid cases could be traced to "superspreader" events? Like Mardi Gras in New Orleans, or jam packed airports in NYC.

In the images of both protests and riots, I see lots of people congregating in close quarters and shouting. You might recall that forceful loud speaking/singing is exactly why that choir practice in Seattle became a superspreader event.

I predict that by next weekend, COVID cases are going to start spiking in blue cities, and the lockdowns will descend again on the Monday after.

Most of the protesters and rioters seem to be relatively healthy people under the age of 30, plus most of the activity is outdoors. So I'm going to make the opposite prediction: The fresh air and their stronger innate immune systems will prevent them from spreading the virus much. Maybe a little bit, but probably not to "superspreader" degree.

Not sure about the age and comorbidity distribution of most of the Covid-19 cases from Mardi Gras, but one of the important facts that was left out of most news reporting about the WA choir practice superspreader event was the fact that most of the choir members were older; the median age was 69.

Among the 61 choir members who attended the March 10 practice, the median age was 69 years (range = 31–83 years)... Median age of those who became ill was 69 years... Among the recognized risk factors for severe illness, the most common was age, with 75.5% of patients aged ≥65 years... All three hospitalized patients had two or more underlying medical conditions.
Link to CDC report

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:41 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:57 am Rudy Giuliani has a very simple rule: As soon as the first bottle or rock is thrown at a protest, start the arrests.
That calms things down very quickly.
As for looters, they need to be shot. Then it doesn't take long for them to figure out it's not a good idea.

They were talking about Giuliani last night (back in the good old days when he was sane) and how he arrested everyone on the bridge. 700 people was the number given. I don't know if it's accurate, but it was every last person. They did not come back.

I heard Giuliani himself on TV recently, I believe this weekend, and he explained that same event in the same way.
He seemed perfectly sane to me.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:50 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:41 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:57 am Rudy Giuliani has a very simple rule: As soon as the first bottle or rock is thrown at a protest, start the arrests.
That calms things down very quickly.
As for looters, they need to be shot. Then it doesn't take long for them to figure out it's not a good idea.

They were talking about Giuliani last night (back in the good old days when he was sane) and how he arrested everyone on the bridge. 700 people was the number given. I don't know if it's accurate, but it was every last person. They did not come back.

I heard Giuliani himself on TV recently, I believe this weekend, and he explained that same event in the same way.
He seemed perfectly sane to me.

He still has his moments. :-)

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:25 am
At least a lot of the protesters were wearing masks!

However, that IS a major difference between this current civil unrest compared to prior. Now it is accepted practice for perpetrators of violence to cover their faces while they do what they do.

VInny

For anyone interested, in follow up to how our early reopening in AZ has been going, our daily new cases are now double than what they were prior to the reopening. Our deaths and hospital bed metrics have also been trending badly. In Maricopa county we are currently at a 4.25% death rate. Not looking good so far. I imagine with the protests congregating people in public every day that things are only going to continue to get worse, and it is likely that we max out our available hospital beds in the next couple of weeks.

This is horrifying from a scientific perspective, but it’s looking increasingly likely that the Lancet paper that concluded hydroxychloroquine harms Covid-19 patients and precipitated the end of further studies was based on fraudulent data by a scam company.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... hloroquine

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:03 pm Our deaths and hospital bed metrics have also been trending badly. In Maricopa county we are currently at a 4.25% death rate. Not looking good so far.

Where are you getting hospitalization stats from?

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:39 pm

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:03 pm Our deaths and hospital bed metrics have also been trending badly. In Maricopa county we are currently at a 4.25% death rate. Not looking good so far.

Where are you getting hospitalization stats from?

Our state department of health website.

Hospitalizations look like they're trending down. I'm looking here.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:27 pm Hospitalizations look like they're trending down. I'm looking here.

1654.png

You're looking at percent of cases hospitalized, not percent of ICU beds taken. We are currently at 83% of ICU beds taken, and with increasing cases and the protests that's not a good thing. Also, that website does have a few day lag sometimes, it's the only one I can find the hospitalization stats, but the actual case stats always seem to populate on other sites first. They tend to show lower than others on that site, then a few days later bump up to the levels reported everywhere else.

Are you and Kriegspiel looking at the same data? I don't see a recent spike in cases in the plot that Kriegspiel posted, either.

Deaths tend to lag hospital admissions by a few weeks, since obviously dying of COVID can take a bit of time. Similarly, ICU cases can lag new cases. This lag can cause the #s to be misleading if you're using it to gauge the effect of reopening.

btw regarding hydroxychloroquine - there was an NEJM article that I posted that was written by physicians at a New York hospital using its own data. No shady companies involved. It was an observational study showing no difference in outcomes between HC treated vs non-treated cases, after correcting for things like initial case severity. From that you conclude that if there is a benefit to hydroxychloroquine it was too small to detect. By the same token though, if hydroxychloroquine had an adverse effect it was also too small to detect - either that, or it balanced any positive effects.

Shame on WHO for ignoring that study.