Gyroscopic Investing

When I look around online I see that smoking in the US causes about 480,000 deaths annually.

COVID-19 has killed about 88,000 in two months more or less, for an annualized rate of 528,000 deaths. And it looks like only about 14% of Americans smoke.

Is it fair to say that the virus is about as dangerous as long-term smoking?

It depends on what gets counted as a "smoking-related" fatality.

Ditto for coronavirus.

Wow, look at Russia catching up.
https://ncov2019.live/

—-

barrett wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 4:37 pm I see that smoking in the US causes about 480,000 deaths annually.
...
Is it fair to say that the virus is about as dangerous as long-term smoking?

The numerical comparisons keep coming up despite articles that put it into perspective. i don’t think it’s fair to say it’s only as dangerous, even if it turns out to be technically (numerically) true purely in the context of death counts. Although second-hand (and more recently discovered, third-hand) smoke is dangerous, it obviously doesn’t spread to other people the way the virus does.

Smoking doesn’t wipe out the economy the way the virus has. It hasn’t starved anyone.
Yes, it makes healthcare more expensive, but it also generates revenue.

I’m not defending smoking.
I just think it’s too parochial to only look at those numbers.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 5:48 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 5:37 pm
Smoking doesn’t wipe out the economy the way the virus has.

The virus hasn't tanked the economy, the government did.

You assume that people are just going to magically start shopping and spending (and being in crowded stores/restaurants/gyms/hair salons/auto dealerships/airplanes/etc) like before if state/local governments lifted all restrictions? I know that I certainly won't be doing any more of the above than necessary until either:

A. A safe and effective vaccine is developed and widely available, and/or,

B. A safe and effective cure/treatment is discovered/developed.

C. Truly representative (i.e. not self-selected by people who want to be tested because they think they might've been exposed to SARS-COV2 or who otherwise volunteer to be tested even if for no other reason than to see if they have already had a symptomless infection and thus might be immune) antibody serology studies are done showing that the IFR for COVID-19 isn't much worse than for, say, influenza during an averagely bad flu season (i.e. not a 1918-type scenario) and that accurately compares COVID-19 IFR to flu IFR and not study/studies that "cheat" by comparing COVID IFR to influenza CFR to make COVID-19 look more relatively benign that it really is.

Given that I am 35 and relatively healthy, how many 55+ people (or people with chronic illnesses) are going to be making the same decision I did (hunker down at home as much as possible and go out/buy/spend/consume no more than absolutely necessary) even if state authorities lift all restrictions?

WiseOne wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 3:18 pm So much for hydroxychloroquine as a COVID treatment, not that this should come as a surprise:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2012410

I am sorry that this drug ended up being used as a political football, resulting in raising a lot of false hopes. Other treatments are perhaps more promising (like remdesivir) but they're at best partially effective. Vaccination is pretty much the only solution for viruses.

I can't wait to hear how the anti-vaxxers will react to the COVID vaccine when it comes out.

Most of the medical experts (Dr Seheult for example) have always claimed that hydroxychloroquine acts as a zinc ionophore (and zinc inside cells inhibit virus) yet several studies that have come out recently claiming it doesn't work are not giving patients any zinc. Supposedly the aged, diabetics, obese, ie. people at risk for Covid-19 are almost always deficient in zinc. I'm not saying hydroxychloroquine works, but I would like to see studies where zinc is included in the regimen.
Any thoughts WiseOne?

barrett wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 4:37 pm When I look around online I see that smoking in the US causes about 480,000 deaths annually.

COVID-19 has killed about 88,000 in two months more or less, for an annualized rate of 528,000 deaths. And it looks like only about 14% of Americans smoke.

Is it fair to say that the virus is about as dangerous as long-term smoking?

What is the daily growth on smoking deaths compared to Coronavirus?

Yesterday 1,572 died from COVID-18. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)

578,000 a year if rate doesn't change.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

We shall see what happens with the reopenings.


As a non-snooker, I appreciate that smoking isn't allowed on resteraunt / indoors in California so I don't have to deal with second hand smoke.

I see masks similarly.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 5:48 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 5:37 pm
Smoking doesn’t wipe out the economy the way the virus has.

The virus hasn't tanked the economy, the government did.

I'm not going to argue with you, my friend, because it's been done in this thread already (plus I'm in a very pro-dentist mood after my visit the other day), but I respectfully disagree.

If the government didn't tank the economy, the virus probably would have anyway. I think the big difference would have been a bunch of unorganized, fear-based shutdowns rather than the comparatively ordered one we have now.

We'd still have the conspiracy theories and the fake news, except it would be the opposite of what we're currently seeing.

"BILL GATES AND GOVERNMENT EXPERIMENTING ON GLOBAL POPULATION WITH SUPER VIRUS AND INTENTIONALLY WITHHOLDING VACCINE."

Overall, I think the lockdowns were a positive thing. This could have been way worse if hospital capacity had been overwhelmed everywhere at once. Also, imagine the chaos that would have occurred if people were refusing to go to work without a specific shelter in place order to back them up on that decision.

Dieter wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 7:25 pm


As a non-snooker, I appreciate that smoking isn't allowed on resteraunt / indoors in California so I don't have to deal with second hand smoke.

There used to the old days when you went to a restaurant and there were smoking and non-smoking section. At the time we were not aware of the dangers of second hand smoke and people smoking around me then or now has otherwise never bothered me.

One day I was working side-by-side with someone for several hours and after awhile I asked him if he'd given up smoking. He said, "Vinny! I've smoked five cigarettes while we've been working together!" That's how little it concerned me then or, obviously, (did not even) noticed it.

But back to the restaurant days, every time they'd ask me if I wanted the smoking or non-smoking section I'd turn to the person I was with and say, "I wish, instead, that they'd asked me if I wanted the loud people's section or the quiet people's section."

Which section do you think I preferred?

Vinny

MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 8:27 pm

vnatale wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 8:20 pm

Dieter wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 7:25 pm


As a non-snooker, I appreciate that smoking isn't allowed on resteraunt / indoors in California so I don't have to deal with second hand smoke.

There used to the old days when you went to a restaurant and there were smoking and non-smoking section. At the time we were not aware of the dangers of second hand smoke and people smoking around me then or now has otherwise never bothered me.

One day I was working side-by-side with someone for several hours and after awhile I asked him if he'd given up smoking. He said, "Vinny! I've smoked five cigarettes while we've been working together!" That's how little it concerned me then or, obviously, (did not even) noticed it.

But back to the restaurant days, every time they'd ask me if I wanted the smoking or non-smoking section I'd turn to the person I was with and say, "I wish, instead, that they'd asked me if I wanted the loud people's section or the quiet people's section."

Which section do you think I preferred?

Vinny

With me, it's the no kids section now that my kids are grown.

Kids are generally almost always a plus for me.

Vinny

Xan wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 3:34 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 3:18 pmI can't wait to hear how the anti-vaxxers will react to the COVID vaccine when it comes out.

Noting the "when" language, are you confident that this will happen, WiseOne? I certainly hope so!

"when" covers a lot of ground, Xan. The shortest time for a vaccine to come out, up to now, is 10 years. Shortening that time will require bureaucrats to stop being bureaucratic. Possible, but unlikely. I've seen the bureaucrats in my dept up close and personal enough to know that this particular species can't easily change its behavior pattern.

Here is Baseball's response...

Vinny


Exclusive: MLB proposes medical protocols to players in 67-page document



By Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich 3m ago



No exchanges of lineup cards. New baseballs any time a ball is put in play and touched by multiple players. Players wearing masks except while on the field, standing six feet apart during the singing of the national anthem and God Bless America, sitting six feet apart in the dugout and, if necessary, even in the stands.

These are just some of the proposed protocols in a 67-page document concerning health and safety that Major League Baseball delivered to the Major League Baseball Players Association on Saturday. The union must agree to the procedures outlined in the document, making them subject to change.

The operations manual for the abbreviated 2020 season, a copy of which was obtained by The Athletic, covers medical and testing protocols for COVID-19, spring training, facility protocols, on-field operations, league operations and transactions, travel and player and staff education.

Among the highlights in each section:

TESTING

*Regular testing for all players, managers, coaches and umpires, plus a limited number of essential staff who come into close proximity with players.

*MLB will monitor developments in testing and attempt to use the least invasive and fastest methods that are commercially available without adversely impacting public health needs.

*The vast majority of tests will be run on saliva collections, though oral or nasal swabs might be used at times. Blood samples will be taken less frequently for antibody testing.

*All players must undergo “Intake Screening” upon arriving at spring training. The screening will take place at multiple locations and at staggered times. It will consist of a temperature check with a contactless thermometer and body fluid and blood samples.

*Individuals who are tested must self-quarantine at his or her spring-training residency until the results of the testing are reported, likely within 24 to 48 hours. Any individual who tests positive is instructed to self-quarantine and gets treated accordingly.

*Asymptomatic individuals are monitored daily through symptom screens, temperature checks and “frequent testing,” with results taking approximately 24 hours to report.

*An individual with a temperature above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, other symptoms consistent with COVID-19 or close contact with a confirmed case is subject to immediate rapid diagnostic test at location close to the club facility.

*Each club must maintain a dedicated testing area in its spring training site and MLB ballpark, and a dedicated isolation area where an individual who develops symptoms or learns of positive result can isolate pending relocation to home or medical facility.

*Free diagnostic and antibody testing is available to individuals who live in the same household and healthcare workers or other first responders in the clubs’ home cities as a public service.

*Each individual will conduct daily home screenings that include a personal temperature check each morning. Clubs will provide thermometers.

*Before entering a club facility, individuals will get their temperatures checked and complete a short symptom and exposure questionnaire.

*Any individual who reports COVID-19 symptoms or a temperature above 100 during a home screening may not enter club facility, and instead must immediately self-isolate and be directed to team physician.

*Each club must develop procedures for isolating, transporting, testing and treating individuals who display potential symptoms.

*Clubs must take the following steps to minimize potential transmission:

�Identify all players and other employees who have had close contact and closely monitor them.

�Team physician may deetermine some or all of those should get tested.

�IImmediate cleaning and disinfecting of all club-controlled areas

�Reinforce importance of hygiene.

*Individuals who test positive must self-isolate, with daily communication and remote care from the club medical staff, including follow-up testing.

*The club must conduct contact tracing, clean and disinfect locations where the individual was and confidentially notify public health authorities.

SPRING TRAINING

*Limited to 50 players per club.

*Workouts staggered throughout the day to avoid overcrowding. When feasible, clubs should consider the use of another facility such as a nearby college or minor-league stadium to conduct workouts or games on a split-squad basis.

*Reporting dates staggered, with camp divided into three phases.

�Indivvidual and small group workouts consisting exclusively of pitchers and catchers. Divided into groups of five players or fewer and assigned different times and areas of complex.

�Larger groups permitted. Still staggered timmes throughout the day.

�Limited number of games.

*To address heat concerns, spring-training games in Florida and Arizona would begin between 7 and 9 pm local time.

*Four-man umpiring crews would be used with the possibility of adding a fifth and using multiple plate umps when temperatures reach certain levels.

FACILITY PROTOCOLS

*Facilities will be restricted to limited groups of essential personnel:

�Players and other on-fieldd personnel.

�Other essential personnel who need cllose proximity to on-field personnel. This group includes clubhouse staff, ownership representatives, front-office employees, public-relations staff and translators.

�Individuals who perform essential event services but do not require close contact with players and other on-field personnel. This group includes cleaning service providers, broadcast personnel, groundskeepers, transportation providers � up to 150 at any given time.<

�Laww enforcement, EMTs and ambulance drivers, and government officials.

*Minimum standards will be maintained for cleaning and disinfecting. Processes will be in place for safely distributing meals, dietary supplements and medicine.

*Communal water and sports drink coolers/jugs are prohibited. Only personal water or individually prepared sports drink bottles or contactless water dispensers with disposable cups or should be used.

*No spitting, using smokeless tobacco and sunflower seeds in restricted areas.

*Increased availability of hand washing and hand-sanitizing stations, preferably with contactless dispensers.

*Players and other on-field personnel should wash or sanitize their hands after each half-inning or the handling of equipment.

*Where possible, clubs will make efforts to reduce density of individuals, discourage gatherings and promote physical distancing.

*Meetings will take place virtually when possible. If they take place in-person, they should preferably be outdoors with participants sitting apart from each other and wearing face coverings when possible.

*Lockers should be six feet apart. If not possible, clubs should erect temporary clubhouse or locker facilities in unused stadium space, preferably outdoors or in areas with increased ventilation.

*Showering will be discouraged at club facilities.

*The use of indoor batting cages is discouraged when hitting outdoors is an option. Hitters are encouraged to use batting gloves, and batting-practice pitchers are encouraged to wear masks.

*Pitchers will use a personal set of baseballs during bullpens, and separate balls to demonstrate pitching grips or mechanics.

*Only necessary players will be in dugouts. Inactive players may sit in auxiliary seating areas, including adjacent in-stadium seating to maximize physical distancing.

*Dugout phones will be disinfected after each use.

*Group dining is discouraged. Buffet and communal food spreads are prohibited. Meals must be distributed in individually packaged containers or bags, in takeout form.

*Uses of saunas, steam rooms, hydrotherapy pools and cryotherapy chambers are prohibited.

ON-FIELD OPERATIONS

*Rules changes for the 2020 season are pending.

*Rather than an exchange of lineup cards, lineups will be inputted into an application.

*When the ball is out of play or in between pitches, fielders are encouraged to retreat several steps away from the baserunner.

*Catchers are permitted to step on the grass toward the mound to give signs if he needs to stand to relay signs to infielders.

*Non-playing personnel must wear masks at all times in dugout.

*Spitting is prohibited.

TRAVEL

*Teams should control their environments as much as possible. Public transportation and individual private transportation � rideshare services like Lyft and Uber  � is discouraged.

*Whenever possible, teams are to fly into smaller airports. The league’s desire is for airlines to assign fixed airline crews rather than rotate crews in and out.

*While players will not be officially quarantined, members of the traveling party are not to leave the hotel unless they receive advance approval from team personnel. The only people permitted to visit players’ rooms are immediate family members. Socializing with other family members or friends is discouraged, but not entirely prohibited.

*On the road, the players should essentially isolate at hotels, with precautions such as a prohibition on buffet-style meals in place. Luggage will be sent directly to players’ rooms to avoid extra touchpoints, and players will not need to return a key or visit the front desk upon check out. Meal money should be delivered to players in a form other than cash.

*At teams’ home cities and in spring-training cities, players can stay at their desired locations, so long as they follow best practices such as avoiding public areas.

MLB plans to develop a COVID-19 education program that all team employees will need to complete before returning to work. Players and umpires are to go through the program as well.

.

Recap of recent public scares. The wolf is knocking at your door.

Accompanyment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qae25976UgA
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO8ahHedcnk

.

I decided the following appropriately fits in this topic since almost all the events described are due to these times we are now presently living in...

Vinny's Grand Adventure!

Yesterday had been the 8 week / 4 day anniversary of several things. Two main things were being off my property / going somewhere in my car AND bringing in any outside food into my house.


Because I am generally so precise and accurate and methodical in the way in which I do things, especially my work, some people make the false assumption that I also live this totally planned out life. That's far from the reality as, particularly when it comes to personal matters, what I do can be decided quite whimsically or impulsively. There's been many times at the end of a day when I've said to myself, "When I woke up this morning I had no idea this is how I would have spending this day!"


Yesterday morning my "plans" said I was going to go a few miles from my house to buy vegetable plants to plant in my garden later in the day.


Then I thought, well, you could also go a few miles in the other direction and bring to the dump all those cans to recycle that are in the garage.


Then I thought if you are out in that direction why not go a few more miles and buy food at Stop & Shop.


Then I thought why not also go a few more miles to go to Home Depot to get that wheel barrow you'd wanted, particularly since it'd come in to good use in moving dirt and mulch around.


Then I thought why not also go to Big Y since it's right across the street from Home Depot to buy foods and I had no idea how much of what I'd want to get would be available at Stop & Shop.


And, THEN, after all of that was accomplished I'd buy those vegetable plants to plant.


I'm guessing I might have set out around 9:30 AM or so to go to the dump. However, as I soon as I got out of my driveway and on to my street, I realized I STILL had on my studded snow tires to which no air had been added to them since they were put on last November, 7 months ago! Next time I have plans to leave my property I'm going to need to make an appointment to get those off!


Just before I pulled into the dump area I put on my bandana which I did not like with all the hot air I was feeling underneath it. But getting rid of the paper and all the cans went quickly. There was no one else there.


On my way to heading to Home Depot I thought I should stop at my office. At our Friday staff meeting we'd all been informed that we all been given masks to wear for when we are in the office. I thought that, hopefully, wearing the mask would be a better experience than the bandana.


This was another first time in 8 weeks / 4 days experience - being in my office. I looked around my office and saw a lot of things I could take out of my office and bring home, e.g., a cat litter box. I decided that now that my former kittens are adults I will no longer be bringing them to my office.


I put the key to the building / offices down on my table. I'd also had my car key in hooded sweatshirt. Soon after I'd got to my office I'd taken off my eyeglasses and put them on my table.


I went to someone else's office to get papers that I should have at home.


I went back to my office to continue to gather things to bring home. I noticed that key was no longer on the table nor in any of my pockets. I looked some without success in finding it but decided to look for it again once I was done in my office. My office computer is to be upgraded from Windows 7 to Windows 10 so I was also concentrating on disconnecting everything attached to it. I was starting to get warm from all this physical activity and took off my sweatshirt.


I'd finally finished with bringing all from my office and putting it in the vestibule, on its way to getting it all my car.


Time to look for that key. Nowhere to be found!


Could I have left it on the desk of my coworker when I got those papers? Not out of the question given I had to use that key to get into that office and could have put the key down while going through the papers.


If that was the case I'd made sure that office door was locked and how was I going to get in? I exited my office to see if somehow I'd left that door open and next thing I know I'm hearing my office door close behind me! I check that other office door and it IS locked. And, when my door closed (somehow) it was also locked!


Now I cannot get at my eyeglasses or my car key! And, don't have a building / offices key!


I said go to your car and use your phone to call someone to come to the building who can get you back into your office.


In my semi-panic I'm not thinking all through and I exit the building. As soon as I hear the building door shut, I tell myself, "You just locked yourself out of the building!"


I go to my car, thinking I'd not locked it, but it WAS locked!


Here I am in the parking lot. No eyeglasses, no phone, no key to building, no key to car!!!!


What can I do? I'm blind. I cannot use my car or a phone. All I have are my legs but even if I can walk somewhere to a phone I don't know anyone's phone numbers who can get back into my office! MAYBE I should have just stayed home for yet another day! It's nearly noon and I'me not getting done anything done I'd PLANNED to do!


Right next ot our driveway is a motorcycle place. I've been friendly with one of the owners for over 40 years. Maybe they are open and have one of those things that can break into a car. He WAS there and he was willing to help out and he did have one of those things, though he doubted it'd work on a modern car.


Just as we were walking to my car I felt something around my neck and all of a sudden remembered was wearing the spare car key that was on the stainless steel chain that I always wear around my neck whenever I am off my property. Since I know I DO have a problem with keys I started doing this when I realized I'm in big trouble if I'm somewhere and I get separated from my car key.


I told him of my discovery, thanked him for his willingness to help. and opened my car. Got my phone.


I've just recently started to use my cell phone. Therefore there are few numbers actually stored in it. I was hoping there was a phone number of one of my coworkers in it who could come to the building to rescue me. On my second call I reached a coworker who agreed to come rescue me.


Shortly after the coworker arrived and I was able to get my building / office key which I HAD left on the other coworker's desk. Once I got back my key I was able to get back into my office.


I completed all I needed to do in my office, loaded up my car with things to bring home, and headed to Home Depot.


There was a fair amount of traffic on the road just before Home Depot.


However, while the lot had a fair amount of cars in it there was a lot of empty spaces in between the cars, not the usual. I drove to the front to get a near spot and I saw all these people in line to get in. Not what I wanted to see! I told one of the workers that I'd ordered and paid for a wheel barrow earlier in the day and asked if I could come back another day to pick it up as I did not want to spend 1/2 hour in line to get in. I was told I could but I decided I'd try out the line to see how fast it moved.


I think I got in in less than 10 minutes. Both in that line and inside Home Depot ALL were wearing some form of face coverings and everyone seemingly aware of keeping as much distance as was practical.


I was surprised how big the wheel barrow was as it looked much bigger than it had in the picture. I asked if it was going to fit into my Honda Accord. I was told that I'd get help, which I did.


On our way out I asked him if I was going to have to get back in line to go back in to buy more. The answer was Yes. He successfully got the wheel barrel into the back seat of my car and there was NO line when I went back in!


Next was going to Big Y to shop for food (practically right across the street from Home Depot).


I am NOT an errand person. I generally only go somewhere to buy something if I'm either already near it or its on my way to or from work. And, I certainly try to avoid going to stores on Saturdays. This whole day was far from my norm.


Also, my only food store is based upon where I work. This Big Y had been my food store from 1988 to 2005 as my job during that time had me driving right by it to and from work. But after that job ended and another one started I stopped using that store. Therefore I was yesterday walking into a store in which I did not know where anything was. Generally, when I go to my present store - Stop & Shop - I'm usually in and out in about 25 minutes.


First thing is I see blueberries and strawberries! I LOVE fruit! Had to buy those. And, since the first area I was in was the fruit and vegetable section I spent a lot of time there.


I walked through the entire store looking at the aisle headings to decide if it was one I should head down. The aisles did have the one way arrows. Again, EVERYONE in the store had face coverings.


I left the store about 1:45 PM, having purchased 67 items for a total cost of $206.95. A lot of stocking up on fresh vegetables that will last me several weeks. I was surprised that there was hardly any dish washing detergent available. I did not go in the paper products aisle.


Next destination was Stop & Shop. Here I know where everything is. Left around 2:40 PM with a purchase bill of $237.00. Again a lot of stocking up on depleted items and things I'd not been able to buy at Big Y, like a ton of dish washing detergent. More importantly, 160 pounds of kitty litter.


After seeing everyone wearing face coverings everywhere in all stores I had been in so far that day I was semi-shocked to see one person (older male) in Stop & Shop not wearing anything (even though there was a large sign entering the store stating it was mandatory). But I did not say anything to anyone deciding I'm not on the Face Coverings Police force.


I did go in the paper aisle to buy something else and there was NO toilet paper and limits on buying other paper goods. Two plus months into this, what IS this continuing thing with toilet paper??!!


As I'm leaving the store with an absolutely full cart I'm wondering where it is all going to go in my car! The trunk was full of everything from Big Y. The entire back seat area was dominated with that wheel barrow. All I had left was the passenger seat area. It seemed dubious that it'd all fit in that area. But it did!


Less than 15 minutes later I'm home. I have to at least get all the frozen foods into the freezer. Doing just a partial putting things away, it takes a full 1/2 hour to bring everything from the car to my kitchen, get everything out of the large 15 brown bags, semi-organize all, and get those frozen foods into the freezer area of my refrigerator.


Done by about 3:30 PM. Time to head out to buy those vegetable plants to buy. But first I decided to head over to the farm stand across the street from me to see how much they have available so to influence what I do or do not buy from where I usually buy. Where I usually buy are strictly all organic plants (which is how I garden) while the farm stand across the street did not appear to organic plants.


In the process I actually meet my neighbor for the FIRST time! He and his wife (who I met for first time a few weeks ago on my first vegetable planting expedition of the season) have ONLY been living across the street from me for at least two to three years!


We spend some time talking to one another and then I FINALLY head out to buy those vegetable plants at my usual place.


Since I have a 1,000+ square foot garden area I have room for LOTS of plantings so I buy lots of plants! About $202 worth. 60 total containers, of which 25 have them have six plants each. So a total of 185 plants to plant! On my way home I stop at another place and spend another $20 on vegetable plants to plant. But just as I got out of the car I noticed a puppy tied to a truck. Appeared quite friendly and wanting to see me. Of course that had to be my first priority. I probably spent about 10-15 minutes with this absolutely adorable 7 months ago labrador retriever. That was an unexpected treat to the day!


FINALLY got home around 5:30 PM!


The original "plan" in the morning was to, after having purchased all the plants, had been to plant them yesterday once I got home.


However, after spending 8 hours concerned with all the above, I decided that today would be the day for the plantings. And, I told myself that all the time I spent doing all the preceding yesterday was a PRIME reason why I'd not left my property during all that time. I had not been sufficiently motivated to spend all that time involved in acquiring! I could WELL survive doing without what I was lacking and spending my time in far more pleasurable or productive activities!


At this point, weather.com is telling me that is 55 degrees out. Looking out my windows, it looks like a gloomy day.


However weather.com is also telling me that around 10:00 AM that while it will be "Mostly Cloudy" there will be some sun and it will rise to 60 degrees. Some time between 10:00 and 11:00 AM I "plan" to head out to that garden area and plant ALL of yesterday's acquisitions plus the $44 worth I'd bought two weeks ago at the farm stand across the street from me. That all is going to take many, many, many hours!


But NOT something I've not prior experienced!

Has anyone else on here had no income for the last two months due to the COVID-19 shutdowns? I know that MangoMan has had to stay away from his dental practice. My wife's business is our family business and it went to zero on 3/11 with no good news in sight for months to come. Without going into too much detail, she provides an entertainment service in schools, at resorts, etc. We have savings to last for years so it's not about poverty. I am 61, she is 53. It's way too early to just pull the plug on our work lives. Anyway, just venting.

barrett wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 9:57 am Has anyone else on here had no income for the last two months due to the COVID-19 shutdowns? I know that MangoMan has had to stay away from his dental practice. My wife's business is our family business and it went to zero on 3/11 with no good news in sight for months to come. Without going into too much detail, she provides an entertainment service in schools, at resorts, etc. We have savings to last for years so it's not about poverty. I am 61, she is 53. It's way too early to just pull the plug on our work lives. Anyway, just venting.

I'm very fortunate in that I have a project to work on that is probably the best work I've done in my life, and I was already retired from working for others well before the plague.

But I know many others are suffering for what I don't believe are very good reasons. I hope the powers-that-be who are continuing with unnecessary restrictions change their approaches ASAP.

barrett wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 9:57 am Has anyone else on here had no income for the last two months due to the COVID-19 shutdowns? I know that MangoMan has had to stay away from his dental practice. My wife's business is our family business and it went to zero on 3/11 with no good news in sight for months to come. Without going into too much detail, she provides an entertainment service in schools, at resorts, etc. We have savings to last for years so it's not about poverty. I am 61, she is 53. It's way too early to just pull the plug on our work lives. Anyway, just venting.

Go ahead and vent.

My daughter had no income for over a month. It's a good thing she lives with me because I have no idea what she would have done if she was on her own. She applied for unemployment but so far she has not received a penny from the government, including her stimulus check which is nowhere in sight. I'd tell her to call the IRS but I'm sure she'd be put on hold behind several million other people if she could even get through at all.

My wife's hours were reduced but smaller checks kept on coming.

As for me, the SS checks have arrived on schedule and the $2400 stimulus deposit was made a couple of weeks ago. As for the latter, I really don't understand the reasoning behind it, especially seeing people who really need it getting nothing at all. As for stimulating the economy, what exactly are we supposed to spend it on right now? Ours went directly into savings.

Vinny, I'm confused...

In another thread, you explained that you hadn't been off your property for 8 weeks, with resulting dietary limitations among other things. Now you're going out and running errands to groceries, Home Depot, dumps etc? What changed your mind?

To those who have experienced lost income - my deepest sympathy for your situation. I'm lucky not to have to deal with that, although I'm fully prepared for the probably inevitable announcement of an across the board pay cut. Stanford University just did this to the tune of 20%. I'm also guessing that NYC property taxes will go up a lot next year...probably ~30%, maybe 50% compared to the usual 10-20%. Fortunately there's been no suggestion so far about increasing income tax rates.

We just returned from staying in a cabin in Blue Ridge, GA just to get away from things for a while. I can report that rumors of Georgia's grand re-opening are greatly exaggerated because nearly everything was still shut down. We found only one restaurant open for dine-in service the whole time. It was a Longhorn Steakhouse and it really felt good to do something normal again.

One day we drove an hour and a half to the national forest where there was supposed to be a famous swinging bridge you can walk to after driving down a dirt road that is an access point to the Appalachian trail. When we got there, the access rode was roped off and there were signs saying that the trail was closed due to the corona virus. That was just the worse of similar adventures.

When I got back to the cabin I looked up the statistics for the county, guessing it would probably be zero but I was wrong. The number was one.

Although I lack the expertise of an epidemiologist or virologist I feel pretty safe in asserting that the chances of getting attacked by a bear on the Appalachian trail are much greater than contracting the corona virus.

We're home now but my wife and I have both decided that as much as we love travelling we aren't going out again until this temporary insanity is over. We just hope it really is temporary.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 1:09 pm Vinny, I'm confused...

In another thread, you explained that you hadn't been off your property for 8 weeks, with resulting dietary limitations among other things. Now you're going out and running errands to groceries, Home Depot, dumps etc? What changed your mind?

Part of my binary - all or none - personality.

Prior I had no sufficient motivating reason to get off my property and drive my car. Yesterday I HAD to get off my property to buy all those plants so that they could be planted (planned yesterday but ended up today). Therefore, the switch had now been turned on to get in my car and drive.

Vinny

So you really want to see your friends? Here’s how to assess the risk

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... s-the-risk

Very illuminating article in the Wall Street Journal today:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/supersprea ... jem10point

For those who have to deal with paywalls, here are a few excerpts:

Some scientists looking for ways to prevent a return to exponential growth in coronavirus infections after lockdowns are lifted are zeroing in on a new approach: focus on avoiding superspreading events.

The theory is that banning mass public events where hundreds of attendees can infect themselves in the space of a few hours, along with other measures such as wearing face masks, might slow the pace of the new coronavirus’s progression to a manageable level even as shops and factories reopen.

Researchers believe that the explosive growth of coronavirus infections that overwhelmed hospitals in some countries was primarily driven by such events earlier this year—horse races in Britain, carnival festivities in the U.S. and Germany or a soccer match in Italy.
...
[Professor Michael Small, a lecturer in applied mathematics at the University of Western Australia] modeling shows that lockdowns could be replaced by targeted measures with a much smaller economic impact, such as banning mass events, asking a significant number of white-collar workers to work from home and encouraging widespread use of smartphone contact-tracing apps.
...
Some of the lessons from the research are already being applied. In Germany, choral singing has been banned from religious services and Bundesliga soccer games are taking place without spectators, while churches in Britain are considering a ticket system to avoid crowding.
Austria will allow cultural events, such as concerts with up to 1,000 visitors, under strict security measures starting from August, while clubs and nightlife venues will remain closed, a government spokesman said, after outbreaks in such establishments in South Korea. A study published this week found that banning mass gatherings had the biggest contribution to bringing the epidemic under control in Germany.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 12:37 pm How do they plan to deal with public transportation in crowded cities? NY subway, London tube, buses, etc?

You saw those intense UV light flashers they are putting on subways in NY, right? Just tell people to close their eyes.

Not really joking though.

Can't speak for London, but NYC is doing several things:

- running buses more frequently so social distancing can be maintained on the bus.
- Increasing Citybike installations.
- Staggering work shifts e.g. instead of everyone starting 8am, stagger start times between 6 and 10 am.
- Limiting on-site employees and continuing mandatory telework

If I need transportation I've been biking, using Uber (drivers are masked) or taking buses. It works. The city should just shut down the subways. They're a de facto homeless encampment and otherwise unusable. I haven't bothered to even try it.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/passed-ou ... us-crisis/