Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:39 pm
A while ago, IIRC Vinny posted some story or opinion about how many current-day humans would have been Nazis if they had lived in those special decades in Germany. I think we're seeing a non-hypothetical situation playing out right now that demonstrates that a lot of people have sleeper Nazi-like authoritarian tendencies, I think Australia is a clear example. American politicians seem to be trying to leverage the rona into every piece of politics they can, with the most egregious example being the CDC declaring that landlords can't evict people. Then, even after it's unconstitutionality was determined, they tried to do it again.
A few weeks ago it was my backyard neighbor who informed me he had it.
Today it was our team's shortstop who was at our practice on Thursday and informed me today that he was tested on Saturday and informed that he was positive on Sunday. He said the worst was that he had a fever of 101.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
No worries, Mark. If Vinny is incapable of posting links or screenshots with his own commentary, I will take a stab at the last picture. It looks to me like after the death rate spiked in 1918, it dropped precipitously in the 2 years after. My conclusion is the Spanish Flu rapidly killed off some weak portion of the population that would have died in the next 3-4 years, so there were less of them left in the next few years to die bc they already did.
Now to really be , I will predict that if you look at this same graph 5 years from now, the same variance will occur at the right end of the X axis.
Pug, I think you have a misconception about the age mortality pattern of the 1918 flu pandemic.
Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.
There's still a lot that is not known or understood about the 1918 pandemic.
But as to Vinny's chart, I don't understand it either. For example, why does it not show more mortality during WWII? And you're right, the large spikes the other way in the years following 1918 raise questions. What's going on in the 60's? Baby boom? So this is net of births? What does age adjusted mean?
Vinny, can you provide more info?
glennds wrote: ↑Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:26 am
Pug, I think you have a misconception about the age mortality pattern of the 1918 flu pandemic.
….
There's still a lot that is not known or understood about the 1918 pandemic.
But as to Vinny's chart,
… What does age adjusted mean?
Vinny, are you posting random screenshots with no explanation again?
The colors don’t excite me.
The distribution non gaussian.
The grammar is passable.
What the hell are you posting, Vinny?
No worries, Mark. If Vinny is incapable of posting links or screenshots with his own commentary, I will take a stab at the last picture. It looks to me like after the death rate spiked in 1918, it dropped precipitously in the 2 years after. My conclusion is the Spanish Flu rapidly killed off some weak portion of the population that would have died in the next 3-4 years, so there were less of them left in the next few years to die bc they already did.
Now to really be , I will predict that if you look at this same graph 5 years from now, the same variance will occur at the right end of the X axis.
I may very well be misinterpreting the graph's title ( "Percentage Change from 5-year Average" ) but if the mortality each year is in fact being compared to the previous five year's average mortality (e.g. take the mortality for the current year and compare it to the average mortality of the last five years.....i.e. total mortality for all those five years added together and then divided by five to obtain an average mortality over those five years) then of course the mortality rate for 1919, 1920, 1921, and 1922 would show hefty declines; the five year average for the years before them included 1918 which was--due to the 1918 flu pandemic--horrendous in terms of mortality versus a more normal year. Once 1918 dropped out of the previous five years' average (or at least once it got mostly "balanced out" by the four fairly typical years of 1919, 1920, 1921, and 1922 when they were taking a previous five year average to use to compare 1923's mortality too) things seemed to go more back to normal.
glennds wrote: ↑Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:26 am
Pug, I think you have a misconception about the age mortality pattern of the 1918 flu pandemic.
….
There's still a lot that is not known or understood about the 1918 pandemic.
But as to Vinny's chart,
… What does age adjusted mean?
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:17 pm
Watched the Florida-ND game last night, and listening to the announcers and portions of other news shows related to Covid...it sure seems that for the most part people have thrown in the towel on gathering rules and regulations. No masks, packed football stadiums across America, and this time, more like an oh well, we gotta figure out how to live with it attitude.
The most places have been able to push without much pushback is to wear them indoors and in schools. We literally get 1-3x a day Covid 19 positive case notifications from the high school (~2000 kids). But the text is "This letter is to inform you that an individual at Buffalo Grove High School has tested positive for COVID-19. The individual was last in the building on 9-2-21. Individuals who are fully vaccinated and remain asymptomatic are not required to quarantine. "
I can live with that for now.
When you see curves like this (Kentucky), that would have brought the hammer down 9 months ago, but now, barely a whimper, do you all who think the man is still using this as control really is?
I understand there are outlier situations like for Jalalong, but I am in blue IL with little concern.
If you go on to any social media site and read the comments about these college football games, you will see that 65% of the comments are from people bemoaning the fact that it is because of these people and their outdoor gatherings that Covid will never leave, that we will never get back to normal etc. So I think there are still a LOT of people who would desperately like to control these gatherings, including Fauci.
As much as I love people out having fun not giving a crap what politicians say, it does piss me off that 60,000 people can do that but my son cannot do a Choir concert and I cannot do a meeting at the school with his 6 teachers due to Covid restrictions. People can always go to football games in the future but my son only has so many years in school. This is now year 2 1/2 with restrictions on social activities and constant distancing from peers and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
I truly feel for you jalanlong and your son. We are doing full marching band with our first competition Saturday. There are no outdoor limits. Only limit indoor is wearing a mask.
jalanlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:06 pm
As much as I love people out having fun not giving a crap what politicians say, it does piss me off that 60,000 people can do that but my son cannot do a Choir concert and I cannot do a meeting at the school with his 6 teachers due to Covid restrictions. People can always go to football games in the future but my son only has so many years in school. This is now year 2 1/2 with restrictions on social activities and constant distancing from peers and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
Your son should have his choir concert and you should have a meeting with his teachers. But on the other hand, how much revenue do those activities generate for the school? Not trying to be an ass, but there's no question that money factors in to the decision making process.
Also, the window for attending a college football game as a student is approximately 4 years. For some people at some schools, that is a very big deal. Many of them lost 25% of their opportunities to do that last year. Obviously the importance of that depends on your perspective.
jalanlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:06 pm
As much as I love people out having fun not giving a crap what politicians say, it does piss me off that 60,000 people can do that but my son cannot do a Choir concert and I cannot do a meeting at the school with his 6 teachers due to Covid restrictions. People can always go to football games in the future but my son only has so many years in school. This is now year 2 1/2 with restrictions on social activities and constant distancing from peers and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
Your son should have his choir concert and you should have a meeting with his teachers. But on the other hand, how much revenue do those activities generate for the school? Not trying to be an ass, but there's no question that money factors in to the decision making process.
Also, the window for attending a college football game as a student is approximately 4 years. For some people at some schools, that is a very big deal. Many of them lost 25% of their opportunities to do that last year. Obviously the importance of that depends on your perspective.
As a student then 4 years. But as an alumni or just in general it is a lifetime. My son cannot go back and do a Choir concert. Same with last year..in 5th grade all of the students in the Spring go camping overnight at a nature reserve. That was cancelled due to Covid even though transmissions outside in a setting like that have to be minimal. He will never get that experience now.
jalanlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:06 pm
As much as I love people out having fun not giving a crap what politicians say, it does piss me off that 60,000 people can do that but my son cannot do a Choir concert and I cannot do a meeting at the school with his 6 teachers due to Covid restrictions. People can always go to football games in the future but my son only has so many years in school. This is now year 2 1/2 with restrictions on social activities and constant distancing from peers and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
Your son should have his choir concert and you should have a meeting with his teachers. But on the other hand, how much revenue do those activities generate for the school? Not trying to be an ass, but there's no question that money factors in to the decision making process.
Also, the window for attending a college football game as a student is approximately 4 years. For some people at some schools, that is a very big deal. Many of them lost 25% of their opportunities to do that last year. Obviously the importance of that depends on your perspective.
As a student then 4 years. But as an alumni or just in general it is a lifetime. My son cannot go back and do a Choir concert. Same with last year..in 5th grade all of the students in the Spring go camping overnight at a nature reserve. That was cancelled due to Covid even though transmissions outside in a setting like that have to be minimal. He will never get that experience now.
Not really arguing with you, just pointing out that at the college level and above there are additional factors and as we know money changes everything. This stopped being all about health and safety a long time ago.
When this all started my kids were a senior and freshman in high school and believe me, countless opportunities have been lost. So I hear you. We are all at the mercy of the people in charge... if we don't like it all we can do is go along, refuse to comply, try to get rid of them, or leave.
flyingpylon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 4:10 pm
When this all started my kids were a senior and freshman in high school and believe me, countless opportunities have been lost. So I hear you. We are all at the mercy of the people in charge... if we don't like it all we can do is go along, refuse to comply, try to get rid of them, or leave..
Well said! Or we can moan about it on the internet and social media.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
The 7 day avg deaths in Dallas and Collin County are between 1-7 over the last month. So I am going to go out on a limb and say that just like in the initial surge, the majority of those Texas deaths are concentrated in border counties in a very specific demographic.
My county, Collin, has 1.3 million population and 900 Covid deaths. Hidaglo County on the border has 800,000 population and almost 4,000 Covid deaths.
Whether or not you think that makes any difference is up to you. However, I do think the media uses the Texas stats to put in your mind that a bunch of freedom loving, anti-govt Trump people are clogging up the Texas hospitals and causing the high death count.
jalanlong wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:50 am
However, I do think the media uses the Texas stats to put in your mind that a bunch of freedom loving, anti-govt Trump people are clogging up the Texas hospitals and causing the high death count.
Or willfully ignoring that Texas has a population of roughly 29,000,000. It's extremely annoying that "news" outlets deliberately deal in total numbers as opposed to rates/percentages.
jalanlong wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:50 am
However, I do think the media uses the Texas stats to put in your mind that a bunch of freedom loving, anti-govt Trump people are clogging up the Texas hospitals and causing the high death count.
Or willfully ignoring that Texas has a population of roughly 29,000,000. It's extremely annoying that "news" outlets deliberately deal in total numbers as opposed to rates/percentages.
Whenever I quote the actual percentage of deaths to someone who is obsessed with Covid, they always respond with the "percentages wont matter when it is your child/spouse/parent." You cannot reason with people who are all emotion.
jalanlong wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 7:50 am
However, I do think the media uses the Texas stats to put in your mind that a bunch of freedom loving, anti-govt Trump people are clogging up the Texas hospitals and causing the high death count.
Or willfully ignoring that Texas has a population of roughly 29,000,000. It's extremely annoying that "news" outlets deliberately deal in total numbers as opposed to rates/percentages.
Whenever I quote the actual percentage of deaths to someone who is obsessed with Covid, they always respond with the "percentages wont matter when it is your child/spouse/parent." You cannot reason with people who are all emotion.
Agree...
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 6:39 pm
I think we're seeing a non-hypothetical situation playing out right now that demonstrates that a lot of people have sleeper Nazi-like authoritarian tendencies, I think Australia is a clear example.
pp4me wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:39 am
In case you are wondering why you haven't heard anything about the Florida Delta surge for a while....
From Florida Covid Dashboard. How to explain such a rapid decline?
I'm not exactly sure where you're getting the above data from....but Florida's own Dept of Health data shows that from 9/3/21 to 9/9/21 they had 353 COVID-19 deaths.
That said, if they do see a rapid decline in the next few weeks I wouldn't be too surprised (I'm not saying they necessarily will...just that it's possible); IIRC the UK and India had a similar Delta-variant powered surge and then deaths started dropping fairly quickly (although obviously not to a seven-day total of zero or near zero).