Coronavirus General Discussion

[Maddy]

Just how accurate is this test any way? I'm starting to hear that the test they are using will give a so-called positive result if you have antibodies in your system for the common cold.

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/07/was-th ... t-a-virus/
Scroll down past the first couple of pages of introductory drivel, and you'll find a very enlightening discussion of this issue.

[Mountaineer]

Just how accurate is this test any way? I'm starting to hear that the test they are using will give a so-called positive result if you have antibodies in your system for the common cold.

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/07/was-th ... t-a-virus/
Scroll down past the first couple of pages of introductory drivel, and you'll find a very enlightening discussion of this issue.

I sure would appreciate WiseOne’s comments on the linked article. Do we have a world wide pandemic or not? Are more people dying per month in 2020 than in previous years? If yes, why (other than we have an aging population)?

[Hal]

Funny parody of what's happening "down under"
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/0 ... -downfall/

PS:Look in the comments for a parody on the housing bubble...

[WiseOne]

Just how accurate is this test any way? I'm starting to hear that the test they are using will give a so-called positive result if you have antibodies in your system for the common cold.

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/07/was-th ... t-a-virus/
Scroll down past the first couple of pages of introductory drivel, and you'll find a very enlightening discussion of this issue.

I sure would appreciate WiseOne’s comments on the linked article. Do we have a world wide pandemic or not? Are more people dying per month in 2020 than in previous years? If yes, why (other than we have an aging population)?

Yes those studies have been done. There is a measurable number of excess deaths this year compared to previous years. A couple of "buts":

Not all the deaths may be due to COVID. It's thought that a substantial fraction of them are due to people developing life-threatening emergencies who avoided going to the hospital due to fear of COVID. This is supported by the fact that deaths due to heart attacks, strokes and the like declined. There's of course no reason to think that these ailments miraculously stopped happening. Either these are being (wrongly) attributed to COVID because the person had flu-like symptoms at the time or simply tested positive, or they aren't being diagnosed because the person died at home and no autopsy was done to determine cause of death.

If most of the deaths are in the population of people who would have died within a year anyway, then you would expect that the bump in deaths during COVID would be followed by a decrease in deaths later on. Only time will tell if this is the case.

You can see that assessing the impact of COVID is not at all straightforward. One would never know this from how the media has portrayed it.

[Mountaineer]

Just how accurate is this test any way? I'm starting to hear that the test they are using will give a so-called positive result if you have antibodies in your system for the common cold.

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/07/was-th ... t-a-virus/
Scroll down past the first couple of pages of introductory drivel, and you'll find a very enlightening discussion of this issue.

I sure would appreciate WiseOne’s comments on the linked article. Do we have a world wide pandemic or not? Are more people dying per month in 2020 than in previous years? If yes, why (other than we have an aging population)?

Yes those studies have been done. There is a measurable number of excess deaths this year compared to previous years. A couple of "buts":

Not all the deaths may be due to COVID. It's thought that a substantial fraction of them are due to people developing life-threatening emergencies who avoided going to the hospital due to fear of COVID. This is supported by the fact that deaths due to heart attacks, strokes and the like declined. There's of course no reason to think that these ailments miraculously stopped happening. Either these are being (wrongly) attributed to COVID because the person had flu-like symptoms at the time or simply tested positive, or they aren't being diagnosed because the person died at home and no autopsy was done to determine cause of death.

If most of the deaths are in the population of people who would have died within a year anyway, then you would expect that the bump in deaths during COVID would be followed by a decrease in deaths later on. Only time will tell if this is the case.

You can see that assessing the impact of COVID is not at all straightforward. One would never know this from how the media has portrayed it.

Thank you WiseOne for taking the time to answer, and for your expertise!

[Mountaineer]

Excellent article.

The author exposes the real scandal of the COVID-19 response in the NE US: The deliberate infestation of long term care facilities aka nursing homes. LTC deaths account for nearly half of the COVID deaths in New York and New Jersey. In Pennsylvania the percentage is horrific: As of Thursday, 68.5%. The worst in the nation. The worst in the world.

https://fee.org/articles/3-states-accou ... Ruh5dF5pTI

[Libertarian666]

Excellent article.

The author exposes the real scandal of the COVID-19 response in the NE US: The deliberate infestation of long term care facilities aka nursing homes. LTC deaths account for nearly half of the COVID deaths in New York and New Jersey. In Pennsylvania the percentage is horrific: As of Thursday, 68.5%. The worst in the nation. The worst in the world.

https://fee.org/articles/3-states-accou ... Ruh5dF5pTI

Yes, but those people were very expensive to those states. The governors and mayors were just trying to save the taxpayers money!
(Note: this is sarcasm)

[vnatale]

Bill Nye Is Here to Demonstrate That Face Masks Get the Job Done

https://time.com/5865625/bill-nye-coronavirus-masks/

[Cortopassi]

Bill Nye Is Here to Demonstrate That Face Masks Get the Job Done

https://time.com/5865625/bill-nye-coronavirus-masks/

I found this one a bit more satisfying.

https://www.chemedx.org/blog/demonstrat ... d-nitrogen

[vnatale]

Bill Nye Is Here to Demonstrate That Face Masks Get the Job Done

https://time.com/5865625/bill-nye-coronavirus-masks/

I found this one a bit more satisfying.

https://www.chemedx.org/blog/demonstrat ... d-nitrogen

Can "normal" people like us even buy N95 masks anywhere?

Vinny

[vnatale]

Bill Nye Is Here to Demonstrate That Face Masks Get the Job Done

https://time.com/5865625/bill-nye-coronavirus-masks/

I found this one a bit more satisfying.

https://www.chemedx.org/blog/demonstrat ... d-nitrogen

Can "normal" people like us even buy N95 masks anywhere?

Vinny

Not sure about western MA, but you can buy them at Ace Hardware here and any Chinese owned dry cleaner. But why would you need one?

Are they not the most effective mask form?

Vinny

[Hal]

Bill Nye Is Here to Demonstrate That Face Masks Get the Job Done

https://time.com/5865625/bill-nye-coronavirus-masks/

I found this one a bit more satisfying.

https://www.chemedx.org/blog/demonstrat ... d-nitrogen

Can "normal" people like us even buy N95 masks anywhere?

Vinny

Not sure about western MA, but you can buy them at Ace Hardware here and any Chinese owned dry cleaner. But why would you need one?

Are they not the most effective mask form?

Vinny

Yes, especially duckbill style.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUwjwxbhhHY

[WiseOne]

Bill Nye Is Here to Demonstrate That Face Masks Get the Job Done

https://time.com/5865625/bill-nye-coronavirus-masks/

I found this one a bit more satisfying.

https://www.chemedx.org/blog/demonstrat ... d-nitrogen

I don't get it. All I see in the video is condensate from the sudden cooling of air above the pans of liquid nitrogen being blown by the force of the person's breath. Of course that's stopped by a mask, because the air will leak out the sides instead.

I do agree that masks will help prevent droplets from a cough or sneeze getting on someone else in close proximity, which would certainly transmit the virus. But that's it. I doubt they accomplish anything at a distance, or outdoors where the droplets disperse quickly, or to protect you if someone does cough or sneeze on you. They may even make it worse since you'll transmit the virus very effectively to yourself from the outside of the mask when you take it off, because you're not trained how to do it and likely use the same mask repeatedly.

[WiseOne]

Another related thought - I went to a party last PM given by members of my division for someone who is leaving to take a director position elsewhere. Everyone at the party was either an MD or a nurse practitioner, and all of us have spent time in and around COVID patients.

I expected to hear and see the industry standard lines: must always wear a mask, COVID is dangerous, black lives matter etc etc. The conversation instead was super refreshing - I should trust the people I work with more! We dispensed with the masks and stayed mostly outside. Out of courtesy I wore a mask when going inside to get food & drink, but the hosts really didn't care.

Everyone heartily agreed that people's sense of risk is completely out of kilter, that schools need to reopen and kids need to be able to get out of the house and do things like play sports and take college exams - and that the damage being done while they're sitting inside playing video games is being inappropriately disregarded. I pointed out that cognitively impaired older adults (eg my mother) are suffering adverse emotional and mental effects from the lockdown as well. Patients need to be able to have in person visits without multiple layers of administrative approval, and - best of all - everyone thought the whole BLM thing was ridiculous and largely unfounded. One person, who I thought was staunchly liberal, even voiced anger at the department head trying to shame everyone into joining the White Coats for Black Lives protest. No one at the party was the least bit interested in that.

The risk thing especially is just crazy. I had calculated the odds of being infected with COVID (infected, NOT hospitalized) and compared it to the chance of getting into a car accident on the way to the party. Turns out the car accident was 10 times more likely. Even when NYC had 10x the number of daily cases that we do now (which is months past), the odds would have been even - and when the heck did anyone ever say, maybe I shouldn't go to this party because I might get into a car accident?

We have lost all perspective and are being carefully schooled into a mindset that one must avoid ALL risk - whatever the price. It's ridiculous. No human society has ever lived this way. The lockdowns were reasonable at the beginning, when it was about preventing hospitals from being overrun. That is no longer an issue and hasn't been for months. I truly don't understand what the rationale is now.

[Libertarian666]

Another related thought - I went to a party last PM given by members of my division for someone who is leaving to take a director position elsewhere. Everyone at the party was either an MD or a nurse practitioner, and all of us have spent time in and around COVID patients.

I expected to hear and see the industry standard lines: must always wear a mask, COVID is dangerous, black lives matter etc etc. The conversation instead was super refreshing - I should trust the people I work with more! We dispensed with the masks and stayed mostly outside. Out of courtesy I wore a mask when going inside to get food & drink, but the hosts really didn't care.

Everyone heartily agreed that people's sense of risk is completely out of kilter, that schools need to reopen and kids need to be able to get out of the house and do things like play sports and take college exams - and that the damage being done while they're sitting inside playing video games is being inappropriately disregarded. I pointed out that cognitively impaired older adults (eg my mother) are suffering adverse emotional and mental effects from the lockdown as well. Patients need to be able to have in person visits without multiple layers of administrative approval, and - best of all - everyone thought the whole BLM thing was ridiculous and largely unfounded. One person, who I thought was staunchly liberal, even voiced anger at the department head trying to shame everyone into joining the White Coats for Black Lives protest. No one at the party was the least bit interested in that.

The risk thing especially is just crazy. I had calculated the odds of being infected with COVID (infected, NOT hospitalized) and compared it to the chance of getting into a car accident on the way to the party. Turns out the car accident was 10 times more likely. Even when NYC had 10x the number of daily cases that we do now (which is months past), the odds would have been even - and when the heck did anyone ever say, maybe I shouldn't go to this party because I might get into a car accident?

We have lost all perspective and are being carefully schooled into a mindset that one must avoid ALL risk - whatever the price. It's ridiculous. No human society has ever lived this way. The lockdowns were reasonable at the beginning, when it was about preventing hospitals from being overrun. That is no longer an issue and hasn't been for months. I truly don't understand what the rationale is now.

Oh, that's easy to explain.
Democrats want arbitrary unquestioned power, and they have seized on this plague as a great opportunity to achieve it.

[Tortoise]

Aside from the leftist power-grab aspect, I also think companies and other organizations are afraid of lawsuits and bad PR in a way that they weren’t in previous times. Maybe it has something to do with how quickly bad press and boycotts spread in the age of social media.

[Cortopassi]

The lockdowns were reasonable at the beginning, when it was about preventing hospitals from being overrun. That is no longer an issue and hasn't been for months. I truly don't understand what the rationale is now.

WiseOne, my attitude is exactly yours, but the mantra has started again, if the rise continues, hospitals will be overrun in 1-2 weeks. And there's the showing of refrigerated trailers to hold dead body overflows. But the overrun always seems to be in the future. Never now.

So it remains to be seen if they get overrun over the next couple weeks? Or do you think that won't happen?

I don't want to play into the democrat/republican/Trump view here. Overrun of hospitals would be a fact that pretty much no one could dispute, right? But if cases start leveling off and deaths don't rise materially, and hospitals are stressed but not overrun, I would think the majority of people could deal with that and move on with life, I hope.

On the mask thing, I do not wear one at work, only when shopping. It is a small price to pay, even if it is minimally effective. I have to ask anyone with knowledge, it seems from the last pandemic, what 10 years ago, a lot of people in Asian countries wear masks by default. Have they all been hoodwinked?

[WiseOne]

The lockdowns were reasonable at the beginning, when it was about preventing hospitals from being overrun. That is no longer an issue and hasn't been for months. I truly don't understand what the rationale is now.

WiseOne, my attitude is exactly yours, but the mantra has started again, if the rise continues, hospitals will be overrun in 1-2 weeks. And there's the showing of refrigerated trailers to hold dead body overflows. But the overrun always seems to be in the future. Never now.

So it remains to be seen if they get overrun over the next couple weeks? Or do you think that won't happen?

Well, it looks like hospitals in some states (e.g. Texas) are into surge capacity & diversion territory, but that's what happens every year during flu season. Also they're still doing elective admissions - if they were seriously worried about beds they would stop all those immediately and it would free up around 25% of capacity, maybe more. And, there's been no talk of building field hospitals in convention centers, or setting up makeshift ICUs in OR recovery rooms and such. That's probably because the hospitals don't think any of that will be necessary. So either they're being remarkably short sighted, or they think they'll be ok without the need for a state lockdown.

Did the lockdown in New York help prevent the hospitals from being overrun? Well, the peak caseload was about 3 weeks after it was instituted, so maybe, but it's not too clear. What I'm saying is that I'm not sure what the rationale is for the measures that are still in effect in New York, despite our being MONTHS past the peak with now a vanishingly small caseload, and absolutely zero danger to the health system. Not going to venture to say whether other states should lock down, but if they do I hope the same kind of "mission creep" doesn't happen.

[Xan]

There has been talk here of using the convention center as a hospital. Apparently we were recently close to some threshold for doing that, but backed off. I'm not sure what the current status is on elective procedures.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200707 ... s-patients

But if they can put 1500 patients in the convention center, that means we still have a ton of headroom, doesn't it? Or would people in the convention center be getting sub-par treatment?

[jalanlong]

Another related thought - I went to a party last PM given by members of my division for someone who is leaving to take a director position elsewhere. Everyone at the party was either an MD or a nurse practitioner, and all of us have spent time in and around COVID patients.

I expected to hear and see the industry standard lines: must always wear a mask, COVID is dangerous, black lives matter etc etc. The conversation instead was super refreshing - I should trust the people I work with more! We dispensed with the masks and stayed mostly outside. Out of courtesy I wore a mask when going inside to get food & drink, but the hosts really didn't care.

Everyone heartily agreed that people's sense of risk is completely out of kilter, that schools need to reopen and kids need to be able to get out of the house and do things like play sports and take college exams - and that the damage being done while they're sitting inside playing video games is being inappropriately disregarded. I pointed out that cognitively impaired older adults (eg my mother) are suffering adverse emotional and mental effects from the lockdown as well. Patients need to be able to have in person visits without multiple layers of administrative approval, and - best of all - everyone thought the whole BLM thing was ridiculous and largely unfounded. One person, who I thought was staunchly liberal, even voiced anger at the department head trying to shame everyone into joining the White Coats for Black Lives protest. No one at the party was the least bit interested in that.

The risk thing especially is just crazy. I had calculated the odds of being infected with COVID (infected, NOT hospitalized) and compared it to the chance of getting into a car accident on the way to the party. Turns out the car accident was 10 times more likely. Even when NYC had 10x the number of daily cases that we do now (which is months past), the odds would have been even - and when the heck did anyone ever say, maybe I shouldn't go to this party because I might get into a car accident?

We have lost all perspective and are being carefully schooled into a mindset that one must avoid ALL risk - whatever the price. It's ridiculous. No human society has ever lived this way. The lockdowns were reasonable at the beginning, when it was about preventing hospitals from being overrun. That is no longer an issue and hasn't been for months. I truly don't understand what the rationale is now.

Oh, that's easy to explain.
Democrats want arbitrary unquestioned power, and they have seized on this plague as a great opportunity to achieve it.

So Tech, in your opinion what happens if the Dems win the election in Nov? They are certainly going to want the economy to get better so they can take credit. So will the virus hysteria just sort of disappear quickly after that? Or will they go the opposite way and impose Draconian lockdowns and contact tracing etc.

[Smith1776]

25 new cases here in B.C. as of our latest update. A slight uptick since our general reopening started. Nothing to worry about (yet) according to our Health Minister, but we definitely need to stay vigilant.

I have several friends across the border in the Seattle and Bellingham area. Looks like it will be a long time still before I can see them.

[jalanlong]

The lockdowns were reasonable at the beginning, when it was about preventing hospitals from being overrun. That is no longer an issue and hasn't been for months. I truly don't understand what the rationale is now.

WiseOne, my attitude is exactly yours, but the mantra has started again, if the rise continues, hospitals will be overrun in 1-2 weeks. And there's the showing of refrigerated trailers to hold dead body overflows. But the overrun always seems to be in the future. Never now.

So it remains to be seen if they get overrun over the next couple weeks? Or do you think that won't happen?

Well, it looks like hospitals in some states (e.g. Texas) are into surge capacity & diversion territory, but that's what happens every year during flu season. Also they're still doing elective admissions - if they were seriously worried about beds they would stop all those immediately and it would free up around 25% of capacity, maybe more. And, there's been no talk of building field hospitals in convention centers, or setting up makeshift ICUs in OR recovery rooms and such. That's probably because the hospitals don't think any of that will be necessary. So either they're being remarkably short sighted, or they think they'll be ok without the need for a state lockdown.

Did the lockdown in New York help prevent the hospitals from being overrun? Well, the peak caseload was about 3 weeks after it was instituted, so maybe, but it's not too clear. What I'm saying is that I'm not sure what the rationale is for the measures that are still in effect in New York, despite our being MONTHS past the peak with now a vanishingly small caseload, and absolutely zero danger to the health system. Not going to venture to say whether other states should lock down, but if they do I hope the same kind of "mission creep" doesn't happen.

Here in Texas the reopening has been stopped and mandatory masks are in effect. I feel like another shutdown is on the way unless you think that making the % of people who weren't wearing masks before wear them now will put some sort of dent in the new cases. What I have questioned before and STILL don't get is the endgame. Right now 70% of (red-state) Texans believe that we re-opened "too soon." What does that mean exactly? Does the virus have an expiration date on it? Admittedly I don't read or listen to much news about the virus. But is the endgame just to be shut down until a miracle vaccine is found? If we had stayed shut down for an extra 2-3 weeks, would the virus had suddenly gone away once we re-opened? I have yet to really here any sort of grand plan to anything other than a generic slow the spread.

I will say I am shocked that people have stuck with it this long. I thought back in March that people would go along with a shutdown for a month or so but then they would get tired of it. Tired of not being able to go to the movies, concerts, sporting events etc. I am flabbergasted at the number of people that seem willing to just hold up in their house for all eternity if necessary.

I do get a sense from a lot of people that this is their chance to to mimic the Greatest Generation. To sacrifice for the greater good. I have heard from a lot of those types. Of course The Greatest Generation didn't get to have DoorDash or Amazon essential workers deliver food and groceries to their door to help with their sacrifice.

[Cortopassi]

And now, behind curtain number 2, Chuck Woolery, our new infectious disease expert!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53392817

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOEfDhoo0_0

I used to watch that show.

[Mark Leavy]

California just locked down hard again. I am in the middle of plans to meet my Sonoma friend for a week in the Great Smoky Mountains. This will probably keep her from flying out - due to her work restrictions.

My mom and sister live in San Diego and all of the restaurants spent a ton of money to restock and re-arrange seating so that they could open up two weeks ago. As of today, that money is gone. I can't even fathom being a business owner in California anymore.

[Tortoise]

Emperor Newsom's reinforcement of California's regime uncertainty is disproportionately hurting small and medium-sized businesses. The businesses that have enough capital to deal with this unpredictable on-again-off-again lockdown nonsense are the big-box stores and chain restaurants.

The little guys are getting screwed, as usual.