Coronavirus General Discussion

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:11 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:16 pm
By "ND won't let you leave," I assume you mean they'd suspend or expel the student if they leave anyways? I don't think ND has the legal right to physically restrain any students.
Yeah, some sort of academic penalty.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:14 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:01 pm
People who are on the spectrum often think about issues in very concrete terms that relate directly to themselves rather than in more abstract terms that relate to other people.
I would disagree with that thesis. It may look like people on the spectrum are incapable of thinking about issues in terms of how they affect or are perceived by other people, but in my experience the real issue is that this subgroup of people tends to process information differently. Instead of picking up instinctively on nuances and subtle social cues, people with autistic traits often require information be presented in a more concrete, logical way. A person on the spectrum may be entirely unable to discern what is meant by a disapproving glance, but when told "Your talking for 10 minutes straight is causing people to be bored," they can incorporate and appreciate the other person's meaning quite well. When you think about a busy workplace, where a person is continually bombarded with information conveyed by way of subtleties and social cues, it doesn't take long before a person on the spectrum gets labeled as somebody who lacks empathy or concern for others, when in fact it may be a case of the person simply not "getting it."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mark Leavy » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:28 pm

Maddy wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:14 pm
...
Instead of picking up instinctively on nuances and subtle social cues, people with autistic traits often require information be presented in a more concrete, logical way. A person on the spectrum may be entirely unable to discern what is meant by a disapproving glance, but when told "Your talking for 10 minutes straight is causing people to be bored," they can incorporate and appreciate the other person's meaning quite well.
...
I really liked this description, Maddy.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:54 am

So Biden is saying we are in for a "very dark winter". Laughable....lots of COVID positive tests (which is how you should translate "cases" as reported in the media) but deaths will be pretty much within the norm for flu season.

What are you all planning for the "dark winter", which I presume is his way of signaling nationally enforced lockdowns? He doesn't say he will do that specifically in his todo list, but I don't know how else to translate this reference. I also suspect we will start hearing efforts to ban family holiday gatherings.

Interestingly, in my immediate family there are (so far as I am aware) two Trump voters besides me. One is my sister who is an ER doc, having been on the front lines of COVID back in March & April, and who still wears a mask in the house and is terrified of catching COVID at work and passing it to her kids. The other is my mother, who firmly believes that the COVID scare is overblown. None of us ever really discussed our voting choice except a couple of passing comments - none of which I initiated. My brother on the other hand, is a rabid anti-Trump type who has said stuff like hooray for the end of fascism, and fits in quite well with his state of residence (CA).

This background is interesting because of how we have all decided to handle the holidays: we are getting together for a series of visits and to heck with the rules. This is because COVID is indeed a thing but we all believe that this concern has to be balanced with my mother's quality of life & mental health - and that it's not the government's business to judge this for us.

Interesting how a fundamentally libertarian outlook interacts with voting decisions....seems kind of random, doesn't it?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle » Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:34 am

North Dakota hospitals at 100% capacity

https://www.kfyrtv.com/2020/11/10/burg ... apacity/
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by doodle » Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:38 am

WiseOne wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:54 am
So Biden is saying we are in for a "very dark winter". Laughable....lots of COVID positive tests (which is how you should translate "cases" as reported in the media) but deaths will be pretty much within the norm for flu season.

What are you all planning for the "dark winter", which I presume is his way of signaling nationally enforced lockdowns? He doesn't say he will do that specifically in his todo list, but I don't know how else to translate this reference. I also suspect we will start hearing efforts to ban family holiday gatherings.

Interestingly, in my immediate family there are (so far as I am aware) two Trump voters besides me. One is my sister who is an ER doc, having been on the front lines of COVID back in March & April, and who still wears a mask in the house and is terrified of catching COVID at work and passing it to her kids. The other is my mother, who firmly believes that the COVID scare is overblown. None of us ever really discussed our voting choice except a couple of passing comments - none of which I initiated. My brother on the other hand, is a rabid anti-Trump type who has said stuff like hooray for the end of fascism, and fits in quite well with his state of residence (CA).

This background is interesting because of how we have all decided to handle the holidays: we are getting together for a series of visits and to heck with the rules. This is because COVID is indeed a thing but we all believe that this concern has to be balanced with my mother's quality of life & mental health - and that it's not the government's business to judge this for us.

Interesting how a fundamentally libertarian outlook interacts with voting decisions....seems kind of random, doesn't it?
Our covid response is indicative of our inability to agree on facts. Not because they don't exist, or they are complicated and ever evolving...but because facts have become political pawns. We can disagree and compromise on what to do in response to facts, but absent any facts at all..... when reality runs the gamut of...covid is the black plague vs. covid doesn't exist at all...we are doomed.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:04 am

doodle wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:34 am
North Dakota hospitals at 100% capacity

https://www.kfyrtv.com/2020/11/10/burg ... apacity/
Perfectly normal for this time of year. Remember that hospitals like to stay at 95%+ capacity all year round. During flu season, it is not uncommon for hospitals to fill up and go into bypass mode, where ambulances are directed to nearby hospitals that have capacity. They also typically have plans for expanding capacity, so the real ceiling is something like 105% of usual max. Depends on the hospital though.

You may be interested in this historical article reporting on hospital capacity issues during the 2017-2018 flu season:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-hand ... -patients/

Somehow, the world did not come to an end and I bet you never noticed anything was amiss. I'm going to guess we will see the same type of articles this winter, except with an added level of hysteria because COVID, plus you will be far more aware of them than you were in years past. That won't make it any more severe.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:19 am

Saw an interesting sign along the road today.

It said, in big letters, COVIDivorce and underneath were the names of two attorneys.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:11 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:04 am
doodle wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:34 am
North Dakota hospitals at 100% capacity

https://www.kfyrtv.com/2020/11/10/burg ... apacity/
Perfectly normal for this time of year. Remember that hospitals like to stay at 95%+ capacity all year round. During flu season, it is not uncommon for hospitals to fill up and go into bypass mode, where ambulances are directed to nearby hospitals that have capacity. They also typically have plans for expanding capacity, so the real ceiling is something like 105% of usual max. Depends on the hospital though.

You may be interested in this historical article reporting on hospital capacity issues during the 2017-2018 flu season:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-hand ... -patients/

Somehow, the world did not come to an end and I bet you never noticed anything was amiss. I'm going to guess we will see the same type of articles this winter, except with an added level of hysteria because COVID, plus you will be far more aware of them than you were in years past. That won't make it any more severe.
So this is just going to be a normal flu season?

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/econ ... the-deaths

------------
A Milan crematory said it couldn’t keep up with the number of deaths and stopped accepting for cremation the bodies of nonresidents who die in the city. A temporary hospital set up in April at Milan’s trade-fair center has reopened.

The Policlinico and Milan’s other hospitals are racing to discharge non-Covid patients as quickly as possible to free up space.

A month ago, Lombardy had just 41 Covid patients in intensive care and 361 occupying non-ICU beds. On Sunday, those numbers had jumped to 650 and 6,225
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:36 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:11 pm
So this is just going to be a normal flu season?
So far it's following the expected rise in hospitalizations that always occurs during flu season....so the answer is "so far, yes".

Go check out that Ivor Cummins video I posted. The fact that you asked this question says that you haven't seen it. It contains a very thorough answer to your question.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:46 pm

"We copied China" and "fell in love with lockdowns" -- two quotes that stuck in my head from the video.

It seems lockdowns continue to be a doubling down of efforts that don't seem to have worked, ok, I get that. Just like cholesterol, the "good" level has dropped multiple times over the years to get more people on statins with no corresponding drop in heart attacks. Very few people are willing to stand up and say "maybe we are wrong?"

But, now that we are dead in it, there seems no way out other than a vaccine and eventually, hopefully not in the too far future, many post mortems that show more often the lockdowns were the wrong thing to do, vs. become the norm in future years.

But, -- if Covid already culled a large portion of those who would have been at risk of dying from flu, why are we still seeing these seemingly out of normal increases in hospitalizations/deaths? Wouldn't many of those have succumbed already?

Data in this chart is a bit stale, and seems higher than the CDC one:

Image
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:54 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:46 pm
But, -- if Covid already culled a large portion of those who would have been at risk of dying from flu, why are we still seeing these seemingly out of normal increases in hospitalizations/deaths? Wouldn't many of those have succumbed already?
I've asked this question many times before, so I'm sorry to be a broken record, but...

How many of those people who recently died after testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 were also tested for the flu or the common cold? Are the doctors who are filling out the death certificates fairly certain that those patients are dying as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and not because of the flu or common cold viruses?

Let's put our thinking caps on and imagine what sorts of graphs we would be seeing if every SARS-CoV-2 test were accompanied by a flu and cold test...
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:59 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:54 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:46 pm
But, -- if Covid already culled a large portion of those who would have been at risk of dying from flu, why are we still seeing these seemingly out of normal increases in hospitalizations/deaths? Wouldn't many of those have succumbed already?
I've asked this question many times before, so I'm sorry to be a broken record, but...

How many of those people who recently died after testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 were also tested for the flu or the common cold? Are the doctors who are filling out the death certificates fairly certain that those patients are dying as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and not because of the flu or common cold viruses?

Let's put our thinking caps on and imagine what sorts of graphs we would be seeing if every SARS-CoV-2 test were accompanied by a flu and cold test...
I think what I'm asking is cause-independent, mostly. If we had 200k+ excess deaths, from whatever reason, Covid or Covid induced, or heart attacks, or stress, between say Feb and Sept, then it would stand to reason that unless Covid (or something else) is still killing at a higher rate than "normal" that we should drop below the 5 year average of excess deaths?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:36 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:59 pm
I think what I'm asking is cause-independent, mostly. If we had 200k+ excess deaths, from whatever reason, Covid or Covid induced, or heart attacks, or stress, between say Feb and Sept, then it would stand to reason that unless Covid (or something else) is still killing at a higher rate than "normal" that we should drop below the 5 year average of excess deaths?
One of my father's medical school classmates has been sending a group of his colleagues and classmates a weekly "Covid update" email for months now, and I'm cc'ed on it. In the most recent update, he included several excess death graphs that he compiled himself using CDC data.

The first graph is of excess deaths for children and adolescents. It shows this year has been a bit lower than average over the past several years.

The second graph is of excess deaths for ages 18-64. It shows a couple of humps that rise noticeably above the average, but it has now fallen back down to the average.

The third and final graph is of excess deaths for ages 65+. It also shows a couple of humps similar to the 18-64 graph, but it hasn't quite dropped back down to average yet. However, it's a small excess, and it has dropped to about the average level we see in Jan-Mar.

The doctor's conclusion from his graphs is that for people < 65 years of age, "there is little additional risk of death due to COVID," and for people > 65 years of age, the additional risk of COVID is currently similar to that of an average flu season (just shifted in time from Jan-Mar to right now).

I apologize for not pasting the doctor's charts here for all to see; they are on a private email list, not explicitly shared for public consumption. But the CDC data he gathered to create them is publicly available.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:41 pm

Here's by age from the CDC.

Image

So I see a couple of the age groups have fallen below average deaths, that's great. I guess I would have expected or should/would expect to see the same in the older age groups because the previous humps already took out a lot of vulnerable people. At least that's what I assumed.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:44 pm

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companie ... ocid=ientp

So if shutdowns did not work the first time, at least long term as cases rise again, then what is the rationale for doing them again? Really the only honest thing to do is either open up completely and deal or shut down until a vaccine is readily available. What exactly is the purpose of opening then reclosing, then opening again etc? Other than to give politicians a feeling of importance?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:49 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:46 pm
But, -- if Covid already culled a large portion of those who would have been at risk of dying from flu, why are we still seeing these seemingly out of normal increases in hospitalizations/deaths? Wouldn't many of those have succumbed already?
Yes, this looks odd - the CDC chart doesn't look at all like this. Some number fudging or mistakes maybe?

However, looking at data for the US as a whole isn't really valid. The country is big, with multiple regions AND climate zones, each with its own pattern of seasonal mortality. It took COVID a while to transit from region to region - it hit the coasts first, then nailed the NYC area, and only much later did it get to places like the southern tier and the central plains. The effect is something like this:

Take a Gaussian (bell) curve and draw it on a piece of paper. Now move your pen to the right (along the time axis) and draw another curve. Move it to the right again and draw another curve. And so on. Then, beneath that, add up all the curves. That will make it look like the virus is persisting the whole time - but it totally hides the regional patterns. This is why looking at data from European countries or just one state/region (e.g. NYC) is much more enlightening. The curves all look the same, lockdown or no lockdown.

The pattern is that there is indeed excess mortality as COVID first hits, for about 6-8 weeks, which is concentrated almost exclusively in the sick elderly population. After that, the curve drops down, more slowly than it ramps up, and by maybe a month later it's all over. Given that some deaths are attributable to the lockdowns themselves, the true mortality from the virus is even lower than the graphs show.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:08 pm

I thought I should switch to posting in this thread....

The recommendations for what to do after a COVID exposure are just incredibly f'd up. Every institution has a completely different set of rules.

My exposure earlier this week was ~1-2 hours in close proximity (and in a small, poorly ventilated room) with someone who tested positive (not sure when exactly but either 1 or 2 days after the contact). We were all wearing surgical masks, no other PPE.

My hospital's judgment: Not an exposure because everyone was wearing masks.

The University (my direct employer): Unknown. They have no guideline on their webpage and have not contacted me.

The CDC's guideline, per their website: This was an exposure and I'm supposed to quarantine for 14 days & self-monitor for symptoms. The CDC explicitly says that mask wearing is irrelevant.

Randomly selected, highly respected academic medical center 1: Agrees with the CDC. Exposure/quarantine 14 days.

Randomly selected, highly respected academic medical center 2: This was a "medium-risk" exposure. Quarantine for 7 days and self-monitor for 14 days.

My personal thoughts: we are all going to get exposed to this eventually, and it's in the flu spectrum as far as severity. And if all hospitals followed the CDC guideline, 90% of the clinical workforce would be in quarantine and they'd only be able to work one out of every 15 days. On the other hand, given how terrified many people are of this virus, I'd rather err on the side of being nice and not going around and potentially exposing people. For example, I had a vet appointment for my cat tomorrow morning. I called and told them the situation, and they asked that I postpone. Done.

I am planning to get a test before I go visit elderly relatives. Optimal time for the test is after 4-5 days. Today is day 3, so that means Monday. Oddly, I can walk right into the test center in the hospital - but not anywhere else in the city - because the hospital says it wasn't an exposure. Go figure. Anyway if it's negative I'll call it a day and go back to living normally.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:13 am

WiseOne wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:08 pm
I thought I should switch to posting in this thread....

The recommendations for what to do after a COVID exposure are just incredibly f'd up. Every institution has a completely different set of rules.

My exposure earlier this week was ~1-2 hours in close proximity (and in a small, poorly ventilated room) with someone who tested positive (not sure when exactly but either 1 or 2 days after the contact). We were all wearing surgical masks, no other PPE.

My hospital's judgment: Not an exposure because everyone was wearing masks.

The University (my direct employer): Unknown. They have no guideline on their webpage and have not contacted me.

The CDC's guideline, per their website: This was an exposure and I'm supposed to quarantine for 14 days & self-monitor for symptoms. The CDC explicitly says that mask wearing is irrelevant.

Randomly selected, highly respected academic medical center 1: Agrees with the CDC. Exposure/quarantine 14 days.

Randomly selected, highly respected academic medical center 2: This was a "medium-risk" exposure. Quarantine for 7 days and self-monitor for 14 days.

My personal thoughts: we are all going to get exposed to this eventually, and it's in the flu spectrum as far as severity. And if all hospitals followed the CDC guideline, 90% of the clinical workforce would be in quarantine and they'd only be able to work one out of every 15 days. On the other hand, given how terrified many people are of this virus, I'd rather err on the side of being nice and not going around and potentially exposing people. For example, I had a vet appointment for my cat tomorrow morning. I called and told them the situation, and they asked that I postpone. Done.

I am planning to get a test before I go visit elderly relatives. Optimal time for the test is after 4-5 days. Today is day 3, so that means Monday. Oddly, I can walk right into the test center in the hospital - but not anywhere else in the city - because the hospital says it wasn't an exposure. Go figure. Anyway if it's negative I'll call it a day and go back to living normally.
What a mess! We really don't know a whole lot about this virus do we? It seems to me based on what I've read and the medical folks I've talked with there still a lot of questions about exact modes of transmission, timing after exposure to be "safe" whatever safe means, conflicting data, conflicting policies for what makes up an exposure, a case, a COVID-19 death, etc.

Best wishes WiseOne for your continued good health, regardless of what might cause you to get sick. What a mess!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:02 pm

What a mess indeed! I just ordered groceries on Fresh Direct. It occurred to me that I should be able to run errands if I can get in and out of a store in less than 15 minutes, because everyone's definition of "exposure" includes that 15 minute threshold.

And, interesting how most everyone is ignoring the CDC - not because they're too lax, but because their criteria may be overly strict.

Anyway, all good so far. Nothing happening (day 4 from exposure).
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:23 pm

As I have many times stated here, I have lived a fairly isolated life since mid-March. However, this past Tuesday I had a visit from two people who live in the Boston area. An area of far greater population density than mine. I assume that each of them have been in the presence of far more people than I have.

We were together for about 8 hours. We did not wear masks when we were together. I was with them in the car. We sat outside in a park talking. We sat in my living room talking. I sat at an outdoor bench with them eating. Most of the 8 hours was me in close proximity to them and a lot of talking.

Now almost four full days have passed. They are in their mid- to late-30s and, perhaps, could be carriers who have never shown any symptoms? Has enough time passed for me to feel confident that I've not caught anything? I've had no symptoms of anything since Tuesday. Same as it's been for me since at least mid-March when my contact with people was drastically reduced.

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:41 pm

It's mighty irresponsible of you to be socializing at your age, Vinny. You need to stay on your property, alone, until this virus is eradicated.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:07 pm

NOW ON C-SPAN 1

Drs. Anthony Fauci and Francis Collins on COVID-19 Response

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci and National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins participate in a discussion at Washington National Cathedral on the coronavirus pandemic response.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:37 pm

So tell us what they said?

I'm still betting the farm on a national lockdown the instant Biden is sworn in. The media and those guys are simply preparing the ground for what's already been decided.

Since winter respiratory illness season normally starts abating end of February/early March, it will allow Biden to claim that the lockdown was responsible. And I bet these guys know that full well. It's all part of the game.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:58 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:37 pm
So tell us what they said?

I'm still betting the farm on a national lockdown the instant Biden is sworn in. The media and those guys are simply preparing the ground for what's already been decided.

Since winter respiratory illness season normally starts abating end of February/early March, it will allow Biden to claim that the lockdown was responsible. And I bet these guys know that full well. It's all part of the game.
I had it on as background while I was working. During the times I need to concentrate on my work my brain shuts off all other inputs. Therefore, I did not actually hear all that much of it.

It is available on the C-Span web site for anyone who wants to hear it at any time.

Vinny
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