Coronavirus General Discussion

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Cortopassi
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:59 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:54 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:46 pm
But, -- if Covid already culled a large portion of those who would have been at risk of dying from flu, why are we still seeing these seemingly out of normal increases in hospitalizations/deaths? Wouldn't many of those have succumbed already?
I've asked this question many times before, so I'm sorry to be a broken record, but...

How many of those people who recently died after testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 were also tested for the flu or the common cold? Are the doctors who are filling out the death certificates fairly certain that those patients are dying as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and not because of the flu or common cold viruses?

Let's put our thinking caps on and imagine what sorts of graphs we would be seeing if every SARS-CoV-2 test were accompanied by a flu and cold test...
I think what I'm asking is cause-independent, mostly. If we had 200k+ excess deaths, from whatever reason, Covid or Covid induced, or heart attacks, or stress, between say Feb and Sept, then it would stand to reason that unless Covid (or something else) is still killing at a higher rate than "normal" that we should drop below the 5 year average of excess deaths?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:36 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:59 pm
I think what I'm asking is cause-independent, mostly. If we had 200k+ excess deaths, from whatever reason, Covid or Covid induced, or heart attacks, or stress, between say Feb and Sept, then it would stand to reason that unless Covid (or something else) is still killing at a higher rate than "normal" that we should drop below the 5 year average of excess deaths?
One of my father's medical school classmates has been sending a group of his colleagues and classmates a weekly "Covid update" email for months now, and I'm cc'ed on it. In the most recent update, he included several excess death graphs that he compiled himself using CDC data.

The first graph is of excess deaths for children and adolescents. It shows this year has been a bit lower than average over the past several years.

The second graph is of excess deaths for ages 18-64. It shows a couple of humps that rise noticeably above the average, but it has now fallen back down to the average.

The third and final graph is of excess deaths for ages 65+. It also shows a couple of humps similar to the 18-64 graph, but it hasn't quite dropped back down to average yet. However, it's a small excess, and it has dropped to about the average level we see in Jan-Mar.

The doctor's conclusion from his graphs is that for people < 65 years of age, "there is little additional risk of death due to COVID," and for people > 65 years of age, the additional risk of COVID is currently similar to that of an average flu season (just shifted in time from Jan-Mar to right now).

I apologize for not pasting the doctor's charts here for all to see; they are on a private email list, not explicitly shared for public consumption. But the CDC data he gathered to create them is publicly available.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:41 pm

Here's by age from the CDC.

Image

So I see a couple of the age groups have fallen below average deaths, that's great. I guess I would have expected or should/would expect to see the same in the older age groups because the previous humps already took out a lot of vulnerable people. At least that's what I assumed.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Wed Nov 11, 2020 2:44 pm

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companie ... ocid=ientp

So if shutdowns did not work the first time, at least long term as cases rise again, then what is the rationale for doing them again? Really the only honest thing to do is either open up completely and deal or shut down until a vaccine is readily available. What exactly is the purpose of opening then reclosing, then opening again etc? Other than to give politicians a feeling of importance?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:49 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:46 pm
But, -- if Covid already culled a large portion of those who would have been at risk of dying from flu, why are we still seeing these seemingly out of normal increases in hospitalizations/deaths? Wouldn't many of those have succumbed already?
Yes, this looks odd - the CDC chart doesn't look at all like this. Some number fudging or mistakes maybe?

However, looking at data for the US as a whole isn't really valid. The country is big, with multiple regions AND climate zones, each with its own pattern of seasonal mortality. It took COVID a while to transit from region to region - it hit the coasts first, then nailed the NYC area, and only much later did it get to places like the southern tier and the central plains. The effect is something like this:

Take a Gaussian (bell) curve and draw it on a piece of paper. Now move your pen to the right (along the time axis) and draw another curve. Move it to the right again and draw another curve. And so on. Then, beneath that, add up all the curves. That will make it look like the virus is persisting the whole time - but it totally hides the regional patterns. This is why looking at data from European countries or just one state/region (e.g. NYC) is much more enlightening. The curves all look the same, lockdown or no lockdown.

The pattern is that there is indeed excess mortality as COVID first hits, for about 6-8 weeks, which is concentrated almost exclusively in the sick elderly population. After that, the curve drops down, more slowly than it ramps up, and by maybe a month later it's all over. Given that some deaths are attributable to the lockdowns themselves, the true mortality from the virus is even lower than the graphs show.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:08 pm

I thought I should switch to posting in this thread....

The recommendations for what to do after a COVID exposure are just incredibly f'd up. Every institution has a completely different set of rules.

My exposure earlier this week was ~1-2 hours in close proximity (and in a small, poorly ventilated room) with someone who tested positive (not sure when exactly but either 1 or 2 days after the contact). We were all wearing surgical masks, no other PPE.

My hospital's judgment: Not an exposure because everyone was wearing masks.

The University (my direct employer): Unknown. They have no guideline on their webpage and have not contacted me.

The CDC's guideline, per their website: This was an exposure and I'm supposed to quarantine for 14 days & self-monitor for symptoms. The CDC explicitly says that mask wearing is irrelevant.

Randomly selected, highly respected academic medical center 1: Agrees with the CDC. Exposure/quarantine 14 days.

Randomly selected, highly respected academic medical center 2: This was a "medium-risk" exposure. Quarantine for 7 days and self-monitor for 14 days.

My personal thoughts: we are all going to get exposed to this eventually, and it's in the flu spectrum as far as severity. And if all hospitals followed the CDC guideline, 90% of the clinical workforce would be in quarantine and they'd only be able to work one out of every 15 days. On the other hand, given how terrified many people are of this virus, I'd rather err on the side of being nice and not going around and potentially exposing people. For example, I had a vet appointment for my cat tomorrow morning. I called and told them the situation, and they asked that I postpone. Done.

I am planning to get a test before I go visit elderly relatives. Optimal time for the test is after 4-5 days. Today is day 3, so that means Monday. Oddly, I can walk right into the test center in the hospital - but not anywhere else in the city - because the hospital says it wasn't an exposure. Go figure. Anyway if it's negative I'll call it a day and go back to living normally.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:13 am

WiseOne wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:08 pm
I thought I should switch to posting in this thread....

The recommendations for what to do after a COVID exposure are just incredibly f'd up. Every institution has a completely different set of rules.

My exposure earlier this week was ~1-2 hours in close proximity (and in a small, poorly ventilated room) with someone who tested positive (not sure when exactly but either 1 or 2 days after the contact). We were all wearing surgical masks, no other PPE.

My hospital's judgment: Not an exposure because everyone was wearing masks.

The University (my direct employer): Unknown. They have no guideline on their webpage and have not contacted me.

The CDC's guideline, per their website: This was an exposure and I'm supposed to quarantine for 14 days & self-monitor for symptoms. The CDC explicitly says that mask wearing is irrelevant.

Randomly selected, highly respected academic medical center 1: Agrees with the CDC. Exposure/quarantine 14 days.

Randomly selected, highly respected academic medical center 2: This was a "medium-risk" exposure. Quarantine for 7 days and self-monitor for 14 days.

My personal thoughts: we are all going to get exposed to this eventually, and it's in the flu spectrum as far as severity. And if all hospitals followed the CDC guideline, 90% of the clinical workforce would be in quarantine and they'd only be able to work one out of every 15 days. On the other hand, given how terrified many people are of this virus, I'd rather err on the side of being nice and not going around and potentially exposing people. For example, I had a vet appointment for my cat tomorrow morning. I called and told them the situation, and they asked that I postpone. Done.

I am planning to get a test before I go visit elderly relatives. Optimal time for the test is after 4-5 days. Today is day 3, so that means Monday. Oddly, I can walk right into the test center in the hospital - but not anywhere else in the city - because the hospital says it wasn't an exposure. Go figure. Anyway if it's negative I'll call it a day and go back to living normally.
What a mess! We really don't know a whole lot about this virus do we? It seems to me based on what I've read and the medical folks I've talked with there still a lot of questions about exact modes of transmission, timing after exposure to be "safe" whatever safe means, conflicting data, conflicting policies for what makes up an exposure, a case, a COVID-19 death, etc.

Best wishes WiseOne for your continued good health, regardless of what might cause you to get sick. What a mess!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:02 pm

What a mess indeed! I just ordered groceries on Fresh Direct. It occurred to me that I should be able to run errands if I can get in and out of a store in less than 15 minutes, because everyone's definition of "exposure" includes that 15 minute threshold.

And, interesting how most everyone is ignoring the CDC - not because they're too lax, but because their criteria may be overly strict.

Anyway, all good so far. Nothing happening (day 4 from exposure).
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:23 pm

As I have many times stated here, I have lived a fairly isolated life since mid-March. However, this past Tuesday I had a visit from two people who live in the Boston area. An area of far greater population density than mine. I assume that each of them have been in the presence of far more people than I have.

We were together for about 8 hours. We did not wear masks when we were together. I was with them in the car. We sat outside in a park talking. We sat in my living room talking. I sat at an outdoor bench with them eating. Most of the 8 hours was me in close proximity to them and a lot of talking.

Now almost four full days have passed. They are in their mid- to late-30s and, perhaps, could be carriers who have never shown any symptoms? Has enough time passed for me to feel confident that I've not caught anything? I've had no symptoms of anything since Tuesday. Same as it's been for me since at least mid-March when my contact with people was drastically reduced.

Vinny
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:41 pm

It's mighty irresponsible of you to be socializing at your age, Vinny. You need to stay on your property, alone, until this virus is eradicated.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:07 pm

NOW ON C-SPAN 1

Drs. Anthony Fauci and Francis Collins on COVID-19 Response

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci and National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins participate in a discussion at Washington National Cathedral on the coronavirus pandemic response.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:37 pm

So tell us what they said?

I'm still betting the farm on a national lockdown the instant Biden is sworn in. The media and those guys are simply preparing the ground for what's already been decided.

Since winter respiratory illness season normally starts abating end of February/early March, it will allow Biden to claim that the lockdown was responsible. And I bet these guys know that full well. It's all part of the game.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:58 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:37 pm
So tell us what they said?

I'm still betting the farm on a national lockdown the instant Biden is sworn in. The media and those guys are simply preparing the ground for what's already been decided.

Since winter respiratory illness season normally starts abating end of February/early March, it will allow Biden to claim that the lockdown was responsible. And I bet these guys know that full well. It's all part of the game.
I had it on as background while I was working. During the times I need to concentrate on my work my brain shuts off all other inputs. Therefore, I did not actually hear all that much of it.

It is available on the C-Span web site for anyone who wants to hear it at any time.

Vinny
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Sat Nov 14, 2020 7:07 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:37 pm
It's all part of the game.
What's the game? I still haven't figured out who benefits.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Nov 14, 2020 8:20 pm

I don't know about Francis Collins, but the latest headline I saw about Fauci had him quoted as saying, "Do what you're told." link.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by boglerdude » Sun Nov 15, 2020 1:05 am

> I still haven't figured out who benefits

How much did the Fed print and who did they hand it to.
Who benefits from small business being outlawed.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:50 am

But this is happening worldwide?

I refuse to believe those huge businesses that benefit from this, like Amazon, are part of a grand game/conspiracy. At the same time that other super huge industries, like travel are getting crushed.

Too easy an answer for conspiracy minded people.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by boglerdude » Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:58 am

All the central banks are printing as fast as they can get away with. Brexit is Trump, promising to reduce immigration to boost wages. Hospitals have been getting overwhelmed for years by cold+flu. This is the year the media decided it'll be the only thing we hear about.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:21 pm

Big businesses don’t have to be in on a grand conspiracy to be in favor of temporary lockdowns that disproportionately hurt smaller businesses.

Things that disproportionately hurt the competition are good for a business’s bottom line.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:29 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:21 pm
Big businesses don’t have to be in on a grand conspiracy to be in favor of temporary lockdowns that disproportionately hurt smaller businesses.

Things that disproportionately hurt the competition are good for a business’s bottom line.
While I see some businesses benefiting from the lockdowns, how about:

--Airlines
--Hotels
--Cruise industry
--Car industry (people don't have to drive to work)
--Oil/gas industry (ditto)
--Obviously restaurants, big chains and mom and pop chains
--Shopping centers, malls
--Commercial real estate
--Companies that supply the above industries

I'm guessing the above likely make 50%+ of all employment in the US? (guess)

Some in this list are small, some are big. They are all populated by employees, many of which can't make ends meet anymore and certainly aren't out having a grand time with their unemployment checks, if they are still getting them.

Of every non-work friend I have, I am the only one actually going into an office. Others have been told maybe the first of the year. Maybe June 1, 2021, and some companies have decided to never go back!

I see a few winners, the obvious are any online places, esp. Amazon.

But in the end, I see no benefit to crushing other businesses out of existence, because the people who aren't working anymore aren't buying your stuff now either.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by boglerdude » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:02 am

The megacorp C-suites are getting bailouts. CEOs/politicians have enough money. Its about winning, even if that means bankrupting your customer.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1275804924752904193
https://www.europereloaded.com/the-last ... ial-class/
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:45 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 8:20 pm
I don't know about Francis Collins, but the latest headline I saw about Fauci had him quoted as saying, "Do what you're told." link.
The latest from Fauci is that even after a "vaccine" is available, you'll still need to wear a mask and adhere to social distancing.

Still think this is about a virus?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy » Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:53 am

Google "opportunity zones." These are economically devastated zones, carved out of virtually every county, where real estate developers and investors are being given mega tax benefits to buy up land and businesses. You'd be deaf, dumb and blind not to understand, by now, that the Grand Plan is all about centralization of resources, which of course is exactly what progressivism is about.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by boglerdude » Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:24 am

I was onboard with our shops on Main St getting wiped out and replaced with chipotle, if that meant no more bums. If they keep up with this lockdown stuff...Im not so sure.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:02 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:29 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:21 pm
Big businesses don’t have to be in on a grand conspiracy to be in favor of temporary lockdowns that disproportionately hurt smaller businesses.

Things that disproportionately hurt the competition are good for a business’s bottom line.
While I see some businesses benefiting from the lockdowns, how about:

--Airlines
--Hotels
--Cruise industry
--Car industry (people don't have to drive to work)
--Oil/gas industry (ditto)
--Obviously restaurants, big chains and mom and pop chains
--Shopping centers, malls
--Commercial real estate
--Companies that supply the above industries

I'm guessing the above likely make 50%+ of all employment in the US? (guess)

Some in this list are small, some are big. They are all populated by employees, many of which can't make ends meet anymore and certainly aren't out having a grand time with their unemployment checks, if they are still getting them.

Of every non-work friend I have, I am the only one actually going into an office. Others have been told maybe the first of the year. Maybe June 1, 2021, and some companies have decided to never go back!

I see a few winners, the obvious are any online places, esp. Amazon.

But in the end, I see no benefit to crushing other businesses out of existence, because the people who aren't working anymore aren't buying your stuff now either.
The way I see it, the governments are winging it, operating on the idea that this is like a "free pass" for them because... how dare citizens/history judge them harshly for ignoring constitutional rules and cultural norms when dealing with a super deadly plague? There is no incentive for them open the Sweden playbook; if people get sick during a lockdown/mask mandate/etc, then nobody can say they didn't do everything they could. I suspect they'd order companies like Amazon to shut down, if they thought they could get away with it, but that may be a bridge too far. But if they called a Sweden and people get sick, our vindictive media will try to destroy them and prevent their re-election.

Same deal when they 'delegate power' to a public health apparatchik, multiplied by the apparatchik not wanting a bad mark on their employee review/resume saying they didn't do enough.

As far as the work from home thing goes, I personally have no problem with that at all. Well, except that I likely won't work for a corporation ever again, so I've missed the boat on it.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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