Coronavirus General Discussion

[vnatale]

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/god-he ... -briefing/

‘God help us’: Viewers horrified after watching Trump repeatedly undercut Fauci at COVID-19 briefing



Vinny

[vnatale]

Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[vnatale]

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[vnatale]

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[Smith1776]

My employer has now extended company-wide closure to April 5th -- and wages are still being paid.

I am wondering how long that can last. I suspect after a while there may be closures with no paid time, since it doesn't look like self-isolation is going to end anytime soon.

Then... layoffs?

[Kriegsspiel]

For those looking for some good reading material while under lock down, I suggest "A Distant Mirror" by the late Barbara Tuchman.

What is that about? The one she wrote about World War I was excellent.

Vinny

The full title is A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century. It's where my earlier quote** came from. One of the best books I read in 2018.

** The deaths of the young in the Second Pest halted repopulation, haunting the age with a sense of decline. In the urge to procreate, women in England, according to Polychromicon, "took any kind of husbands, strangers, the feeble and imbeciles alike, and without shame mated with inferiors."

[Libertarian666]

My employer has now extended company-wide closure to April 5th -- and wages are still being paid.

I am wondering how long that can last. I suspect after a while there may be closures with no paid time, since it doesn't look like self-isolation is going to end anytime soon.

Then... layoffs?

Probably, unless a treatment is deployed immediately, and maybe even then.

[Ad Orientem]

For those looking for some good reading material while under lock down, I suggest "A Distant Mirror" by the late Barbara Tuchman.

What is that about? The one she wrote about World War I was excellent.

Vinny

It's a highly readable history of the 14th century.

[WiseOne]

I have a dumb question for the group....

Like all of you, I'm working from home now and going in only as needed for clinical service. So I was wondering...what should I do about the housecleaner? She would normally come Monday. She takes a long subway ride to get to this neighborhood and services several apartments in my complex (she's very good and word got around fast).

The coop has banned outside workers from coming here for the duration, but even apart from that there are good reasons for her not to come. But, I expect she relies on the pay for her income. It's mostly under the table, so there would be no unemployment benefits. The stimulus checks aren't going to do much considering cost of living around these parts.

I told her to not come for the duration but I would pay her anyway. Knowing that when she does come back she might be spending more than the usual amount of time. I'm not nearly as good a housecleaner as she is!

[dualstow]

Sorry to hear about your dog, Pugchief. My friend had to do the same 3 weeks ago.

[dualstow]

Not yet, anyway.

[drumminj]

I'm looking for a new pug, but there aren't many rescues in the Midwest. Lots in TX for some reason, but that would be tough logistically. They don't do Door Dash for shelter dogs.

Some rescues will relay dogs across the country to get them to a good home. Depends on how eager they are to get the dog in a home, how well they can vet you (hah!) remotely, etc, but it's not out of the question.

[Mountaineer]

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/ev ... 767def5894

Not sure if this has been posted yet. High on facts, low on hype. Warning, long read but worth it in my opinion.

[Mountaineer]

Pugchief, sorry to hear about your dog. Sad.

[WiseOne]

To follow up on Mountaineer's article, and also the posts I made earlier calculating projected COVID prevalence & mortality using the Diamond Princess cruise ship as the perfect test bed. I'd wondered if this was really going to be the apocalypse everyone is assuming, because the numbers weren't really adding up.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

John Ioannidis, a Stanford professor whose career has been focused on effectively debunking clinical reports, published this article a few days ago questioning the appropriateness of the epidemic response. He did a similar (though more extensive) analysis of the Diamond Princess as I did, and concludes this:

If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.
...
One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.

Which is about the testing we don't have, but there are epidemiological methods that could be brought to bear. I'm wondering why no one is doing that. And how there is so little voice given to reasoned opinions like this in the media. Naw, that wouldn't be sensational enough.

[Dieter]

WiseOne -- how does this correlate to the close to 800 deaths in Italy in the last day being attributed to COVID-19?

Not all COVID-19?

Other?

[Libertarian666]

To follow up on Mountaineer's article, and also the posts I made earlier calculating projected COVID prevalence & mortality using the Diamond Princess cruise ship as the perfect test bed. I'd wondered if this was really going to be the apocalypse everyone is assuming, because the numbers weren't really adding up.

John Ioannidis, a Stanford professor whose career has been focused on effectively debunking clinical reports, published this article a few days ago questioning the appropriateness of the epidemic response. He did a similar (though more extensive) analysis of the Diamond Princess as I did, and concludes this:

If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.
...
One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.

Which is about the testing we don't have, but there are epidemiological methods that could be brought to bear. I'm wondering why no one is doing that. And how there is so little voice given to reasoned opinions like this in the media. Naw, that wouldn't be sensational enough.

Ok, maybe the case fatality rate will be 0.3%.
Where does he get the "1% of the U.S. population gets infected" part?
My understanding is that this is EXTREMELY contagious.
What if it is 50% of the US population?

[dualstow]

...
what should I do about the housecleaner?

This page says you should probably cancel to protect your own health.
https://www.health.com/condition/infect ... ng-service

[Kriegsspiel]

To follow up on Mountaineer's article, and also the posts I made earlier calculating projected COVID prevalence & mortality using the Diamond Princess cruise ship as the perfect test bed. I'd wondered if this was really going to be the apocalypse everyone is assuming, because the numbers weren't really adding up.

John Ioannidis, a Stanford professor whose career has been focused on effectively debunking clinical reports, published this article a few days ago questioning the appropriateness of the epidemic response. He did a similar (though more extensive) analysis of the Diamond Princess as I did, and concludes this:

If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.

Ok, maybe the case fatality rate will be 0.3%.
Where does he get the "1% of the U.S. population gets infected" part?
My understanding is that this is EXTREMELY contagious.
What if it is 50% of the US population?

WiseOne has undoubtedly been doing hospital stuff so she didn't notice that I already posted this article. I saw that another scientist-dude, Greg Cochran (of 10,000 Year Explosion fame) is really upset at that 1% number on his own blog. Especially in the comments: "Ioannides has said very useful things about statistically weak studies, but here, he’s dead wrong. I would guess that he knows nothing about the dynamics of epidemic spread, but that doesn’t seem enough to explain this cosmically dumb piece."

But, I would guess that it would devastate the older population, and some of the sicker younger population, based on what we've seen so far.

[vnatale]

I have a dumb question for the group....

Like all of you, I'm working from home now and going in only as needed for clinical service. So I was wondering...what should I do about the housecleaner? She would normally come Monday. She takes a long subway ride to get to this neighborhood and services several apartments in my complex (she's very good and word got around fast).

The coop has banned outside workers from coming here for the duration, but even apart from that there are good reasons for her not to come. But, I expect she relies on the pay for her income. It's mostly under the table, so there would be no unemployment benefits. The stimulus checks aren't going to do much considering cost of living around these parts.

I told her to not come for the duration but I would pay her anyway. Knowing that when she does come back she might be spending more than the usual amount of time. I'm not nearly as good a housecleaner as she is!

I told my house cleaner not to come last week after she asked me if she should. It prob would have been okay as I stay out of her way, but I had been out of town the week before and I had to put my almost 16 year old pug to sleep the week before that, so the house wasn't that 'dirty'.

But she doesn't take public transportation to get here and it's a big house where I can keep my distance. In your case, I would definitely tell her not to come. You are very generous to pay her anyway.

Sorry to hear about your pug. I can all too well sympathize with the loss of a beloved pet. It's one of the extreme high costs of pet ownership. When I lost my last one - a cat I'd had for 17 years - it was almost as if a human had died. They do become a big part of us.

Will you be replacing? I was in agony for then next five days while living without a cat for the first time in 50 years. But I fairly quickly filled his void by getting the three cats (along with 11 gerbils).

Vinny

Vinny

[vnatale]

Sorry to hear about your pug. I can all too well sympathize with the loss of a beloved pet. It's one of the extreme high costs of pet ownership. When I lost my last one - a cat I'd had for 17 years - it was almost as if a human had died. They do become a big part of us.

Will you be replacing? I was in agony for then next five days while living without a cat for the first time in 50 years. But I fairly quickly filled his void by getting the three cats (along with 11 gerbils).

Vinny

Vinny

Thanks. He was declining in health for the prior 6 months, so I started preparing myself mentally for the inevitable. It was still hard on me, but it would have been worse.

I have been furiously looking for a replacement, but so far no luck. I have another dog (shih-tzu mix) that has also helped me cope. We had gerbils when the kids were in grade school; they're cute but I need another pug.

My cat had been in decline for about the same time period but then an extremely rapid decline the last week. The day before he died I had "the talk" with the vet about whether we should try heroic measures or end his life. I was not prepared to end his life that day. Fortunately (if that is the right word) he died that night or the next night while he in bed with me. I made that choice to not end his life after she had told me he was not in pain (from the all too familiar cat kidney problem).

For about the last few years of his life when it was just him I told him many times that because he was so much cat that when he went I was going to have to replace him with two cats. I ended up with three.

He was a Tonkinese cat which is a blend of two of my favorites - Siamese and Burmese. I would have liked to have held out for another one of those but I was down to just three hamsters and I could not go without a cat for however long it would have taken to get an exact replacement.

But best of luck to you in getting what you need as a replacement. And, that it happens as soon as possible! I know the agony of the wait. And tell that shih-Tzu mix that it has to step it up in the interim in providing you "dog"!


Vinny

[Hal]

Sorry to hear about the loss of your Pug.
It's almost like losing a child because you get so attached to them.

What we did was to get another dog from the same line as their personalities were similar.
It was surprising how much dogs inherited personality traits.

R.I.P. Pug

https://collie.org/halloffame

[Smith1776]

Thanks, Hal.

When I adopted him they gave me his papers, so I know where he was bred. I thought about just calling the breeder, but I'm not sure I have the patience for a puppy at this point, and I like the idea of giving a shelter dog a forever home if possible.

I know this sounds like a useless platitude, but yeah, so sorry for the loss.

I own a kitty that I absolutely love to bits. They really become family members.

[vnatale]

Sorry to hear about the loss of your Pug.
It's almost like losing a child because you get so attached to them.

What we did was to get another dog from the same line as their personalities were similar.
It was surprising how much dogs inherited personality traits.

R.I.P. Pug

https://collie.org/halloffame

Thanks, Hal.

When I adopted him they gave me his papers, so I know where he was bred. I thought about just calling the breeder, but I'm not sure I have the patience for a puppy at this point, and I like the idea of giving a shelter dog a forever home if possible.

I've oftentimes stated that I always get my pets "used".

And, when I got these two cats as kittens a few years ago I'd forgotten that I'd not had kitten in 35 years and what it was like living with them! Therefore I was not prepared the next morning for them to be up early and tearing up, running all over the place. I have 7 monitors on this table and at least five computer on and around it. Therefore lots and lots and lots of wires. They viewed all those wires as something for them, to attack!

As I was leaving for work that morning I quickly saw that I did not have a "kitten proof" house! In reality, it was almost total opposite. I put up a pet house and put a carpet on top to confine them to it when I was away to buy me some time to "kitten proof" my house.

All that to say I well understand your reluctance towards a puppy. They require far more time than do kittens.

Vinny

[Smith1776]

Man, the PP lately has been like rolling through a zombie apocalypse in a tank.