Coronavirus General Discussion

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vnatale
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:18 pm

n New York City, fourth-year medical students at New York University Grossman School of Medicine were given the option of graduating early if they agreed to work on the hospital’s COVID wards.1 It was an eerie throwback to events that unfolded one hundred years earlier, during the Spanish flu, when Philadelphia—critically short of healthcare workers—pressed medical students into service.

In March 2020, it wasn’t only medical students who were thrust into improbable circumstances. New York City had become the initial epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. In its hospitals, surgical residents were running makeshift intensive care units that were fashioned out of operating rooms. Pathology residents were reassigned to the medical wards.2 The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which responds to national disasters, was asked to send eighty-five refrigeration trucks and personnel into the New York City medical examiner’s office, where there was a “desperate need” for burial services to help manage a cascade of dead bodies.3 To bolster its normal mortuary work, New York City added more than two hundred soldiers and airmen from the army and the national guard.4

New York State had issued a jarring directive urging EMS crews and other emergency service workers to forgo attempts to revive anyone without a pulse when they got to the scene of a medical emergency, amid the intolerable strain caused by COVID’s surge.5 Running short on ventilators, NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital made the extraordinary decision to retrofit its breathing machines with 3-D printed plastic tubing that allowed doctors to ventilate two patients simultaneously, using the same device.6

I’d completed my medical training in New York City as a resident in internal medicine twenty years earlier, and I went to medical school at Mount Sinai Hospital in Manhattan. Among my most vivid memories from training were covering the medical floors at Elmhurst Hospital in Queens. The hospital was located in one of the most ethnically diverse neighborhoods in the country, and the community’s rich culture deepened the complexity, and gratification, of practicing medicine there. I knew the hospital’s capable staff, and its immense capacity. Watching the scenes unfold—of Elmhurst Hospital being overrun with COVID patients, of refrigerator trucks parked outside, and of doctors and nurses describing their harrowing experiences—was hard to bear.

It was stunning, and it was shocking. But above all, it was terrifying. What my medical colleagues in the city described to me again and again was pervasive fear: Fear that they could spread the virus to their families, as each day New York hospitals were using as many masks, gloves, and gowns as they normally consumed in an entire month during usual times, quickly draining whatever stockpiles they had. Fear that they didn’t know how to care properly for the sick patients overwhelming their wards, suffering from a virus that nobody yet understood. Fear that they couldn’t predict how or when the arc of infection would start to ebb. And fear that a lot of lives would be lost.

It was a harrowing epidemic that brought the city’s vaunted healthcare system much closer to the brink of collapse than most people, even now, recognize.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-2) is the virus that causes the disease that we’ve come to know as COVID-19. By the time the first cases of community spread were diagnosed in late February, SARS-CoV-2 had already rooted itself in our communities. It had been here for a while, at least since January, replicating, spreading, and doubling its numbers every two to three days.7 Then, in March, after thousands of cases had accumulated, the virus abruptly burst into public view.

The virus didn’t arrive with a group of visitors from China, where it originated, or from Italy, where it established its next major foothold. Instead, it likely rode along the breath of probably hundreds of different travelers from a variety of locations, each ferrying the infection, and evading the porous controls that the federal government had put in place at US airports. At the time nobody knew what was happening. Nobody knew how much virus was being carried by people who showed no outward symptoms of the disease. These were people who might never manifest any signs of illness but were still contagious. Without the ability to test people for the virus, we had no way of detecting its spread. We certainly had no way of stopping it.

This wasn’t because the United States had never imagined it might fall victim to a deadly pandemic. We certainly had imagined the possibility. In some respects, we had been preparing for this moment through three presidential administrations, starting with George W. Bush, who warned in a 2005 speech, following the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS-1, and then avian flu, that “scientists and doctors cannot tell us where or when the next pandemic will strike, or how severe it will be, but most agree: At some point, we are likely to face another pandemic. . . . Our country has been given fair warning of this danger to our homeland and time to prepare.”8 We had a pandemic playbook on the shelf, ran exercises simulating the threat countless times, and developed the Strategic National Stockpile to store the medical countermeasures that the top experts thought the country would need. But when the pandemic we long feared finally arrived, we weren’t ready. Many of the plans and preparations turned out to be a technocratic illusion. The stockpile lacked key essentials. A lot of what it contained didn’t work. It was a metaphor for our fragile response.

When I worked in the federal government in public health roles, we would say that planning for medical calamities provides you with no assurance that you’re prepared to deal with one. That was certainly true for COVID. The US never developed a pandemic strategy that would be broadly relevant to a range of predictable and unexpected viral threats, and the country was slow to realize the ways in which the plan we had created and tried to work from, which focused almost exclusively on the risk from flu, wouldn’t apply to COVID. The federal government started off in a weak position, with plans that were ill suited to countering a coronavirus. This mismatch between the scenarios we drilled for and the reality that we faced left us unprepared. Poor execution turned it into a public health tragedy.

It was an alarming state of vulnerability for a country with the world’s most technologically advanced healthcare system. Owing to mistakes in how we deployed diagnostic tests for COVID, we left ourselves blind to the virus and allowed it to spread widely and largely unchecked, so we were never able to trace its early spread and contain it. Even when the shortcomings became obvious, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) continued to rely on its systems for monitoring and responding to influenza, insisting even into 2021 that its flu-based interventions were the right tools in the fight against COVID. We didn’t pursue an approach that closely tied our efforts to track and contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 to the characteristics of the virus. This central shortcoming explains many of the gaps in our response to the pandemic we actually faced.

Yet COVID shouldn’t have been such a surprise. There had been earlier outbreaks of new and deadly strains of coronavirus. COVID’s close cousin, SARS-1, appeared in 2002 and spread threateningly in 2003, and another dangerous coronavirus, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS, emerged ten years later. Moreover, the scientific literature over the last decade is riddled with reports of SARS-like coronaviruses that were found in bats and appeared to have the potential to sicken humans.

In 2012, six people developed an illness with symptoms matching COVID after clearing bat feces from an abandoned copper mine in Yunnan, a province in southwestern China that’s one of the country’s most biologically diverse regions.9 Three of the patients died. Chinese government scientists sampled from the caves coronaviruses that may have caused the outbreak, but those specimens were never shared, and officials maintained that the culprit was an unspecified fungus.10

And while the results of official investigations into the outbreak were never fully revealed, a group of Chinese researchers, working independently, would later conclude that the probable culprit was a SARS-like coronavirus that originated from Chinese horseshoe bats.11 A coronavirus that later became known as RaTG13, judged to be the closest known relative to SARS-CoV-2, was sampled from the same mineshaft.12

In 2013, scientists reported on two novel coronaviruses isolated from bats in China that closely resembled SARS-1 and bound tightly to the same angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor that lines the human respiratory tract, the same route through which the SARS-CoV-2 virus would gain entry into our cells.13

In 2016, scientists reported on another novel coronavirus, also closely related to SARS-1, that also showed the ability to infect human cells.14

There have been other accounts of outbreaks of unusual respiratory illnesses among people who frequented the caves in southern China that were home to bats known to carry coronaviruses highly similar to SARS-1.15 In 2018, researchers sampled the blood of Chinese citizens who lived near these caves and discovered that about 3 percent of the local population had antibodies to coronaviruses that had never been previously identified.16 Any one of these spillover events could have been a predecessor to SARS-CoV-2, testing humans for the first time.

Scientists issued repeated warnings that one of these novel coronaviruses could start to circulate widely. They cautioned that a disease could emerge that had the same deadly features of SARS-1 but was more easily spread, threatening nations. But SARS-1 had disappeared, and MERS never developed the capacity to transfer easily between people. So the warnings prompted only passing actions that sputtered once the immediate threats seemed to subside.

And even if a disease like COVID could have been foreseen, we still wouldn’t have been ready for it. We needed an approach that prepared us for unforeseen risks and focused on establishing core capabilities and not just trying to guess which virus will threaten us. We shouldn’t accept that we’ll be able to anticipate the next threat or that even a predictable risk (like a pandemic strain of flu) won’t adapt in some sinister way that allows it to slip past our countermeasures.

So, instead of assuming that actions designed to combat flu would be effective in countering any pandemic, we should have drawn from our experience with SARS-1, MERS, Ebola, Zika, and other infections, to remember that strategies must be closely tied to the biology of diseases that we’re trying to mitigate. These include the biological features related to the way pathogens spread and the social factors that contribute to transmission.17

These insights should have shaped a preparedness agenda where our policies corresponded to some of the common characteristics shared by different viral threats. We needed to create plans and countermeasures that aligned with aspects of risk that were threaded across a broad range of the potential dangers, rather than wrongly assuming that our tactics could be safely adapted from the preparations we had made for a pandemic involving influenza. We now must learn from our mistakes and approach future pandemics with an altogether different mind-set. We need to tie our future strategies to the epidemiology and biology of diverse categories of potential threats and the social construction of disease. This will arm us with the capability to implement a more flexible response that can counter a fuller set of conceivable threats, including new viruses as well as new strains of known viruses that may have evolved in dangerous ways. Then we need to fashion interventions that target the social and geographic communities where the advance of a novel disease is most likely to occur.

In contrast to diseases spread largely via droplets or contaminated surfaces, where transmission from each infected person is to a smaller number of individuals, for diseases like COVID—with some degree of aerosol transmission, where a lot of the spread is from a small number of superspreaders and where the risk is typically from indoor environments with poor airflow and filtration—these dangers will require a different set of interventions. Pathogens with different incubation periods will need to be planned for differently. So will diseases that can spread through asymptomatic transmission. This is just some of the foundation on which a flexible approach to pandemic preparedness will have to be constructed.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:34 pm

My recent mask wearing observations...

1) Yesterday I was at "The Big E" (Eastern States Exposition). I'm sure that there were over 100,000 attending at various points during the day. There were many modes of communications letting us now that we were all required to wear masks when inside a building.

There seemed to be high compliance in the smaller six New England state buildings. I got out of wearing one in four of them by buying a cider slush in the New Hampshire state building that took a long time to drink. While I was "eating" I was not required to wear a mask.

In the much larger buildings...I estimate compliance at 20% or less.

2) This morning I had two softball games in Northampton, MA. To give you an idea how liberal Northampton is...there was an issue of Newsweek in the early 90s wherein Northampton made it's front cover with the cover story: "Northampton: Gay Capital of the World."

Just before the season we were informed that we needed to be wearing masks when we were congregated together at the bench areas. Today was our third Sunday of playing double-headers. From the first game I've seen practically no one wearing a mask. The only person today I saw wearing one was the first game umpire. And, he never said a word to us about us wearing one.

3) After the game I went with my friend to a pizza place in Northampton. I could not get a parking spot near it and had to park behind the row of buildings on Main Street. To get to Main Street from that parking lot I had to go in and out of a large multi-story building full of various stores (I was the building's accountant in the 70s).

When I went to the back door entrance to the building I saw the prominent sign stating that all must be wearing masks in the building with no exceptions. I saw a lot of people in that building in my wanderings through it trying to find my way out of it and on to Main Street. There was complete 100% compliance in that building.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:22 pm

Before the Delta surge in Florida, mask wearing had nearly disappeared at the stores to the point where if you were wearing one you got the "why are you still wearing a mask" stare. Then, when Delta arrived, things gradually shifted the other way again and my wife was even asked by some old fart in the check out line why she wasn't wearing a mask.

Now masks seem to have gone completely out of style again, rather quickly BTW.

I guess you don't have to check the COVID stats any more. You can tell how things are going (whether real or panic-porn driven) just by seeing how many people are wearing masks.

The store employees still wear them, of course. Wonder if that will ever end.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:16 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:17 pm
Last week I listened to a 1 1/4 hour podcast interview with the author of the below book.
{scott gottlieb’s uncontrolled spread]
Was it Harry Shearer?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Mon Sep 27, 2021 4:50 pm

pp4me wrote:
Mon Sep 27, 2021 12:22 pm
Before the Delta surge in Florida, mask wearing had nearly disappeared at the stores to the point where if you were wearing one you got the "why are you still wearing a mask" stare. Then, when Delta arrived, things gradually shifted the other way again and my wife was even asked by some old fart in the check out line why she wasn't wearing a mask.

Now masks seem to have gone completely out of style again, rather quickly BTW.

I guess you don't have to check the COVID stats any more. You can tell how things are going (whether real or panic-porn driven) just by seeing how many people are wearing masks.

The store employees still wear them, of course. Wonder if that will ever end.
Here in North Texas there is still a lot of mask wearing and general fear of the virus. In my county pretty much no business requires masks any longer. Not even schools. Medical facilities are about the only place left. But even with that I would estimate 50% of people are wearing masks and close to 95% in my son's school. That includes the requisite people in their cars alone wearing a mask or people out jogging by themselves wearing masks.

If you drive about 2 miles over into Dallas County, they still have a mask mandate going (although it is in legal dispute with the governor). Most all businesses have masks signs up and adherence is close to 100%
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:03 pm

Anyone else notice that we no longer hear about super spreader events? There are packed football games everywhere. But the term seems to have been dropped.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:16 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:16 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:17 pm

Last week I listened to a 1 1/4 hour podcast interview with the author of the below book.
{scott gottlieb’s uncontrolled spread]


Was it Harry Shearer?


It was a Face The Nation interview with Scott Gottlieb
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:53 pm

All the big chain store employees seem to be wearing the masks around here. I am always happy to see an employee wearing them on their chin. It does quite disappoint me to see them being forced to mask when I know they don't want to.

Local school district here was under attack by democrats for not having mask mandate. I was happy to see they had hard data showing there was absolutely no difference in cases between schools with and without mask mandates.

Some reason some people think it is a symbol of empathy to wear masks even though they know it does nothing. Other democrats want to use the masks so they can have their thumb on you for sure. They just eat it up when they can take freedom away from others.

It is definitely being used as a muzzle by most mandates. No doubt about it. Disgusting.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:13 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:53 pm
All the big chain store employees seem to be wearing the masks around here. I am always happy to see an employee wearing them on their chin. It does quite disappoint me to see them being forced to mask when I know they don't want to.

Local school district here was under attack by democrats for not having mask mandate. I was happy to see they had hard data showing there was absolutely no difference in cases between schools with and without mask mandates.

Some reason some people think it is a symbol of empathy to wear masks even though they know it does nothing. Other democrats want to use the masks so they can have their thumb on you for sure. They just eat it up when they can take freedom away from others.

It is definitely being used as a muzzle by most mandates. No doubt about it. Disgusting.
Are you able to link to that hard data? If that's really what it shows, it would be great to see.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:27 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:03 pm
Anyone else notice that we no longer hear about super spreader events? There are packed football games everywhere. But the term seems to have been dropped.
Maybe it really is about over now. Moved on to being a cold. My guess is 50% of the population has already been infected after this latest wave. I think it was 25% in July based on blood donation data.

My wife's side of the family that has already had it is at about 75% all across the country.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:40 pm

Xan wrote:
Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:13 pm
Are you able to link to that hard data? If that's really what it shows, it would be great to see.
Board meeting. 09/23/2021
Mask presentation starts at around 1:08:00

https://web.cobbk12.org/page/8993/watch-meetings-online#
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:49 am

There was a mask study (preprint) done in Bangladesh from November 2020 - April 2021 involving 600 villages and 342,146 adults.

Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH discusses it here:

Are We Wearing the Wrong Masks? A cluster RCT suggests surgical masks may be more effective

Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH wrote:The primary findings include:

- Cloth masks had no advantage over the control arm (no intervention), but surgical masks showed a modest, statistically significant benefit

- The surgical mask intervention reduced symptomatic seroprevalence by 11.2%; the endpoint -- COVID-19 symptoms followed by a positive COVID-19 test -- occurred in 0.76% of people in the control group compared to 0.67% for those assigned to surgical mask villages

Link to original study:

The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:26 pm

Truth? Conspiracy Theory? How would we know? Sounds legit but who knows and the website seems a bit questionable. I'm especially interrested in what Sophie thinks.


https://www.deepcapture.com/2021/09/aff ... ion-order/

Below is an excerpt of her affidavit:


AFFIDAVIT OF LTC. THERESA LONG M.D. IN SUPPORT OF A MOTION FOR A PRELIMINARY INJUNCTION ORDER

I, Lieutenant Colonel Theresa Long, MD, MPH, FS being duly sworn, depose and state as follows:

1. I make this affidavit, as a whistle blower under the Military Whistleblower Protection Act, Title 10 U.S.C. § 1034, in support of the above referenced MOTION as expert testimony in support thereof.

2. The expert opinions expressed here are my own and arrived at from my persons, professional and educational experiences taken in context, where appropriate, by scientific data, publications, treatises, opinions, documents, reports and other information relevant to the subject matter and are not necessarily those of the Army or Department of Defense.

Experience & Credentials

3. I am competent to testify to the facts and matters set forth herein. A true and accurate copy of my curriculum vitae is attached hereto as Exhibit A.

4. After receiving a bachelor’s degree from the University of Texas Austin, completed my medical degree from the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Medical School in 2008. I served as a Field Surgeon for ten years and went on to complete a residency in Aerospace and Occupational Medicine at the United States Army School of Aviation Medicine, Fort Rucker, AL. I hold a Master’s in Public Health, and I have been trained by the Combat Readiness Center at Ft. Rucker as an Aviation Safety Officer. Additionally, I have trained in the Medical Management of Chemical and Biological Causalities at Fort Detrick and USAMIIRD.

5. I am board-certified in flight Aerospace Medicine and board eligible in Occupational Medicine.

6. I am currently serving as the Brigade Surgeon for the 1st Aviation Brigade Ft. Rucker, Alabama and am responsible for certifying the health, mental and physical ability, and readiness for all nearly 4,000 individuals on flight status on this post.

7. My appended curriculum vitae further demonstrates my academic and scientific achievements by me over the past thirteen years.

8. Prior to the outset of the pandemic, I received specialized military training from Infectious Disease doctors from the Army, Navy and Air Force on emerging infectious disease threats, FEMA training, Emergency preparedness training, Medical effects of Ionizing Radiation, OSHA, Aerospace Toxicology, Epidemiology, Biostatistics, medical research and disaster planning. More recently I have functioned as a medical and scientific advisor to an Aviation training Brigade seeking to identify risk mitigation strategies, and bio statistical analysis of SARS- Cov-2 (“Covid 19”) infections in both vaccinated and unvaccinated Soldiers. In so doing, I have identified, diagnosed and treated Covid 19 pathogenic infections. I have observed vaccine adverse events following the administration of EUA vaccines and followed the success of Soldiers who obtained various Covid 19 therapies outside the military. The majority of service members within the DOD population are young and in good physical condition. Military aviators are a subset of the military population that must meet the most stringent medical standards to be on flight status. The population of student pilots I take care of are primarily in their 20s-30s, males and in excellent physical condition. The risk of serious illness or death in this population from SARs-CoV-2 is minimal, with a survival rate of 99.997%.

See link to read the whole thing.
Everything is a gift from God. Something to ponder, and confess, and for which to give thanks 8) . Or not - and take your chances >:D .
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by D1984 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:02 pm

Mountaineer wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:26 pm
Truth? Conspiracy Theory? How would we know? Sounds legit but who knows and the website seems a bit questionable. I'm especially interrested in what Sophie thinks.


https://www.deepcapture.com/2021/09/aff ... ion-order/

Below is an excerpt of her affidavit:


AFFIDAVIT OF LTC. THERESA LONG M.D. IN SUPPORT OF A MOTION FOR A PRELIMINARY INJUNCTION ORDER

I, Lieutenant Colonel Theresa Long, MD, MPH, FS being duly sworn, depose and state as follows:

1. I make this affidavit, as a whistle blower under the Military Whistleblower Protection Act, Title 10 U.S.C. § 1034, in support of the above referenced MOTION as expert testimony in support thereof.

2. The expert opinions expressed here are my own and arrived at from my persons, professional and educational experiences taken in context, where appropriate, by scientific data, publications, treatises, opinions, documents, reports and other information relevant to the subject matter and are not necessarily those of the Army or Department of Defense.

Experience & Credentials

3. I am competent to testify to the facts and matters set forth herein. A true and accurate copy of my curriculum vitae is attached hereto as Exhibit A.

4. After receiving a bachelor’s degree from the University of Texas Austin, completed my medical degree from the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Medical School in 2008. I served as a Field Surgeon for ten years and went on to complete a residency in Aerospace and Occupational Medicine at the United States Army School of Aviation Medicine, Fort Rucker, AL. I hold a Master’s in Public Health, and I have been trained by the Combat Readiness Center at Ft. Rucker as an Aviation Safety Officer. Additionally, I have trained in the Medical Management of Chemical and Biological Causalities at Fort Detrick and USAMIIRD.

5. I am board-certified in flight Aerospace Medicine and board eligible in Occupational Medicine.

6. I am currently serving as the Brigade Surgeon for the 1st Aviation Brigade Ft. Rucker, Alabama and am responsible for certifying the health, mental and physical ability, and readiness for all nearly 4,000 individuals on flight status on this post.

7. My appended curriculum vitae further demonstrates my academic and scientific achievements by me over the past thirteen years.

8. Prior to the outset of the pandemic, I received specialized military training from Infectious Disease doctors from the Army, Navy and Air Force on emerging infectious disease threats, FEMA training, Emergency preparedness training, Medical effects of Ionizing Radiation, OSHA, Aerospace Toxicology, Epidemiology, Biostatistics, medical research and disaster planning. More recently I have functioned as a medical and scientific advisor to an Aviation training Brigade seeking to identify risk mitigation strategies, and bio statistical analysis of SARS- Cov-2 (“Covid 19”) infections in both vaccinated and unvaccinated Soldiers. In so doing, I have identified, diagnosed and treated Covid 19 pathogenic infections. I have observed vaccine adverse events following the administration of EUA vaccines and followed the success of Soldiers who obtained various Covid 19 therapies outside the military. The majority of service members within the DOD population are young and in good physical condition. Military aviators are a subset of the military population that must meet the most stringent medical standards to be on flight status. The population of student pilots I take care of are primarily in their 20s-30s, males and in excellent physical condition. The risk of serious illness or death in this population from SARs-CoV-2 is minimal, with a survival rate of 99.997%.

See link to read the whole thing.
For starters, she seems to be conflating polyethylene glycol (PEG) and propylene glycol in a sort of guilt-by-association manner. They aren't nearly the same thing. PEG (actually a PEGylated lipid) is an excipient in the Pfizer vaccine--and IIRC the Moderna one as well--and indeed (in maybe one in a few million cases) can cause anaphylaxis which is why if you have a previous allergic reaction to PEG you are not supposed to get this vaccine (i.e. this is indeed an actual legitimate medical reason exemption and not some "there are 5G microchips in the Pfizer vax and therefore I have a medical reason to refuse it" sort of thing); this is also why they watch you for 15 minutes after being vaccinated and have Epi-pens at the ready if need be. I don't think that PEG has been used in vaccines before but it has been used in many other drugs and pharmaceutical preparations (the most commonly used one being Miralax). This is rather different than propylene glycol which is a chemical used in antifreeze and some types of windshield washer fluid (and also in certain foods and drinks as an additive); ethylene glycol (another common antifreeze ingredient) and diethylene glycol (the solvent and carrier fluid that caused the deaths in the elixir sulfanilimide tragedy in 1937) are AFAIK not approved for use in food and drinks or for any human--or animal--consumption. Propylene glycol doesn't kill you because you are allergic to it; it kills you--if you consume large quantities of it....and you'd have to drink quite a lot of it to kill you....the LD50 is probably higher than for ordinary ethanol--for the same reason drinking antifreeze does (albeit propylene glycol is nowhere near as harmful as ethylene glycol or diethylene glycol....in small quantities it is permitted as GRAS and is for instance added to some ice creams and energy drinks). The SDS for propylene glycol makes it sound pretty scary but then again so does the one for ethanol (beverage alcohol).

Second, just because she is a doctor doesn't mean she is right....By way of example, Dr. Mercola is a licensed physician as well and he is pretty close to an outright quack....the same thing applies to the actual licensed MDs and DOs that deny that HIV causes AIDS.

Third, what risks is she talking about with the spike proteins...and is she aware these would be basically the same risks as one would get from the spike proteins of the actual virus itself? Any myocarditis or clotting or inflammation will be statistically speaking likely be much worse from the virus itself (without even mentioning that the vaccine doesn't risk putting you on a ventilator, or chance leaving you with long COVID sequelae....while SARS-COV2 itself does pose those risks, however small they may be to the otherwise young and healthy)

Fourth, she states that "Direct evidence exists and suggests that all persons who have received a Covid 19 Vaccine are damaged in their cardiovascular system in an irreparable and irrevocable manner;". ALL persons? What actual evidence or proof does she have for this?

Finally, Deep Capture is more or less a conspiracy theory media website. If Dr. Long has such irrefutable proof that these vaccines are so dangerous as to create cause for an injunction against giving them to our military...well, you'd think maybe it would merit a mention in JAMA or NEJM--or at least something like PLOS--instead of on a conspiracy website.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:16 pm

Continuing to read the Gottlieb excellent book....this next quoted passage illustrates just one of the many examples of how in the dark public health officials were in trying to deal with this virus that they too often thought was similar to the flu...

Vinny

The CDC’s revision of its recommendations for people to remain six feet apart, in March 2021, also came a full year after the pandemic began.34 The six-foot distancing requirement was a primary reason many schools cited for why they couldn’t open for full-time classroom instruction in the winter and spring. They didn’t have enough space to create that much distance between students. It was probably the single most costly intervention the CDC recommended that was consistently applied throughout the pandemic, causing schools and businesses to have to forgo a lot of activity to create that much distance between students and patrons.35 It was another reflection of how the CDC’s focus on flu as a model for COVID spread ended up being a costly misjudgment.

Some of the small number of large school districts that were able to remain open full-time since the fall achieved the goal by rejecting the six-foot requirement, including schools in Florida, where the Florida Department of Education allowed students to be closer than six feet.36 And nobody knew exactly where the guidance on six feet of distance came from.

“The origin of the six-foot distancing recommendation is something of a mystery,” wrote the New York Times in March 2021, a year after the pandemic started. “When the virus first emerged, many experts believed that it was transmitted primarily through large respiratory droplets, which are relatively heavy. Old scientific studies, some dating back more than a century, suggested that these droplets tend not to travel more than three to six feet.”37 One senior HHS official told me that the six-foot recommendation was a compromise reached between the CDC and officials in the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Initially, in February 2020, the CDC had recommended eight to ten feet of distance. However, the acting head of OMB, Russ Vought, said that such a requirement would be inoperable, hard to follow, and as a practical matter, couldn’t be uniformly implemented. So, the CDC compromised with the White House and settled on six feet.

But the CDC’s recommendation for six feet of distance would persist well past the scientific realization that aerosols might be responsible for a lot of the transmission, and that the requirement for six feet of distance would be less relevant for this mode of spread.

That requirement for six feet of distance was particular to the US. The WHO recommended one meter, or 3.3 feet.38 China, France, Denmark, and Hong Kong went with one meter. South Korea opted for 1.4 meters; Germany, Italy, and Australia for 1.5 meters.39 (The European CDC continued to recommend maintaining physical distance of ideally two meters.)40 Even the CDC’s decision in the spring to revise the recommendation from six to three feet seemed arbitrary. While the CDC published some accompanying studies to support the move, it wasn’t any better established that the science had firmed around the new requirement. I was told by one HHS official that the revised three-foot number was based on an experiment that the CDC had shared with the senior leadership of HHS in the fall, six months earlier, showing that two people who were masked and standing three feet apart reduced spread by more than 70 percent. If that experiment formed some of the basis for the change in the recommendation, it begs the question, why did it take the CDC six months to issue the revised guidelines?

If we had more insight into where and how the virus was spreading, we would have been able to reserve the most stringent measures, like stay-at-home orders, only for cities where the virus was already epidemic. We would have been able to adopt mitigation tools that had the best opportunity to interrupt spread based on how the virus was being transmitted. That’s what happened with some success in 1918. That’s what the 2005 pandemic plan had prepped for. It envisioned that mitigation would be directed to places where there was active spread, with the strictest measures reserved for cities where the virus was already out of control.

Such targeting would have spared areas of the nation that were not yet at significant risk, where containment, by testing and tracing sick people and then isolating infected patients, was still possible. That would have reduced the national burden we incurred. It also would have preserved more credibility for public health officials to adopt these measures in places where stronger action was needed later, when the virus finally became epidemic in the South and Midwest.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Sep 28, 2021 8:32 pm

Is there here a more up-to-date article regarding this?

Vinny


06 October 2020
Face masks: what the data say

The science supports that face coverings are saving lives during the coronavirus pandemic, and yet the debate trundles on.

How much evidence is enough?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8

To be clear, the science supports using masks, with recent studies suggesting that they could save lives in different ways: research shows that they cut down the chances of both transmitting and catching the coronavirus, and some studies hint that masks might reduce the severity of infection if people do contract the disease.

But being more definitive about how well they work or when to use them gets complicated. There are many types of mask, worn in a variety of environments. There are questions about people’s willingness to wear them, or wear them properly. Even the question of what kinds of study would provide definitive proof that they work is hard to answer.

“How good does the evidence need to be?” asks Fischhoff. “It’s a vital question.”
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Tue Sep 28, 2021 8:35 pm

Somebody (Bangladesh) actually did a controlled study recently. They concluded that surgical face masks caused a statistically significant (but not particularly huge) decrease in spread. Zero for cloth face masks.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Tue Sep 28, 2021 8:58 pm

Xan wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 8:35 pm

Somebody (Bangladesh) actually did a controlled study recently. They concluded that surgical face masks caused a statistically significant (but not particularly huge) decrease in spread. Zero for cloth face masks.


As usual...it seems like there is a "study" to support any position?

Vinny

https://www.ajtmh.org/view/journals/tpm ... y=abstract

ABSTRACT
We studied sources of variation between countries in per-capita mortality from COVID-19 (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus). Potential predictors of per-capita coronavirus-related mortality in 200 countries by May 9, 2020 were examined, including age, gender, obesity prevalence, temperature, urbanization, smoking, duration of the outbreak, lockdowns, viral testing, contact-tracing policies, and public mask-wearing norms and policies. Multivariable linear regression analysis was performed. In univariate analysis, the prevalence of smoking, per-capita gross domestic product, urbanization, and colder average country temperature were positively associated with coronavirus-related mortality. In a multivariable analysis of 196 countries, the duration of the outbreak in the country, and the proportion of the population aged 60 years or older were positively associated with per-capita mortality, whereas duration of mask-wearing by the public was negatively associated with mortality (all P < 0.001). Obesity and less stringent international travel restrictions were independently associated with mortality in a model which controlled for testing policy. Viral testing policies and levels were not associated with mortality. Internal lockdown was associated with a nonsignificant 2.4% reduction in mortality each week (P = 0.83). The association of contact-tracing policy with mortality was not statistically significant (P = 0.06). In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 16.2% each week, as compared with 61.9% each week in remaining countries. Societal norms and government policies supporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls, are independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19.

Received: 13 Aug 2020 | Accepted: 15 Oct 2020 | Published Online: 26 Oct 2020
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:56 am

D1984,

Thank you for your comments on the article I posted. I appreciate it.

... Mountaineer
Everything is a gift from God. Something to ponder, and confess, and for which to give thanks 8) . Or not - and take your chances >:D .
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:06 pm

Reading this excellent book's conclusion....these paragraphs point out the tremendous flaws in our public health system...there were no concerted efforts on the part of anyone to end up the way our country did....just a lot of deficiencies in the ability to handle this public health crisis.

Vinny

On our public health system: COVID revealed dangerous gaps in the US public health preparedness, medical infrastructure, and healthcare system. We lacked the public health capacity and resiliency we thought we had. In the most advanced healthcare system in the world, we ran out of medical masks. We had to retrofit anesthesia machines and turn them into respirators. We didn’t have enough swabs to collect samples from patients’ noses.

Our system was set up well to handle singular, technology-intensive, and complex problems like developing a novel vaccine or antibody drugs. We do this better than anyone. But it faltered when we were faced with more mundane problems like manufacturing those vaccines in bulk, deploying testing centers, or making nose swabs to collect respiratory samples. When we finally developed safe and effective therapeutics and vaccines that could treat or prevent infection, we couldn’t manufacture enough of them in time to supply the nation for the winter surge. We had to set up elaborate rationing schemes. Then, we were unable to establish an efficient distribution plan. Antibody drugs went unused because we couldn’t deliver them. It took more than a month after the authorization of the first vaccine to begin vaccinating the 1.34 million residents of US nursing homes, where the most COVID deaths were occurring.18 It took even longer to set up mass delivery sites to the general public. The vaccine was our only backstop against a relentless surge of infection in winter 2021, and we failed to amplify its timely use.

The CDC couldn’t deploy a test to screen for the virus, allowing the nation to become heavily seeded with infection before it was detected. This was a historic failure that we would never overcome. By the fall, testing still couldn’t keep up with demand. With millions of infections occurring in the US, the CDC didn’t systematically collect and report information on the clinical outcomes. It didn’t deploy sequencing as a tool to detect and evaluate new variants in time to uncover their spread, and it didn’t use the tracking and tracing of sick patients to firmly establish the social compartments where spread was most likely to occur, or to identify the circumstances that were contributing to transmission. Public health authorities overestimated the role of fomites because collectively US agencies underestimated the impact of asymptomatic spread. The virus proved how underfunded our public health system really was.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Oct 01, 2021 5:30 am

Something I ran across recently was the Straw Hat Riots of the early 20th century. I think it bolsters my opinion that a lot of the mask mandate and vaccine mandate hysteria is just another socially-sanctioned way to be a dick. But what starts out as a kind of cultural meme or cultural quirk when it's meant well can get hijacked by bad actors who hide behind them to do their dickery and not get called out.

People feel really good being a dick to a stranger in a socially-sanctioned way. It also gives people a chance to be a dick to their "superiors" (workers mouthing off to their boss about wearing a mask, or standing too close to them, or making them come to work during a pandemic). Thought it was an interesting parallel. Come at me bros.
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by whatchamacallit » Fri Oct 01, 2021 4:13 pm

Nah.

The zealots I see wearing them are in a religious group.

No different than Islam requirements.

Fauci ism


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_ ... e_covering
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Sun Oct 03, 2021 8:43 pm

US death rates are plummeting. The pandemic is ending.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Sun Oct 03, 2021 8:46 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Sun Oct 03, 2021 8:43 pm
US death rates are plummeting. The pandemic is ending.
I have to think that this third surge that's ending is the last one: what with the vaccine and pretty much everybody doing pretty much normal things, seems like we must be onto the endemic background infection rate from here. Right?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Mon Oct 04, 2021 6:47 am

Xan wrote:
Sun Oct 03, 2021 8:46 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Sun Oct 03, 2021 8:43 pm
US death rates are plummeting. The pandemic is ending.
I have to think that this third surge that's ending is the last one: what with the vaccine and pretty much everybody doing pretty much normal things, seems like we must be onto the endemic background infection rate from here. Right?
Unless you live in a blue state. You people who live in TX or FL have no idea of how repressive it still is in CA, NY, IL, etc., so the state of the pandemic/endemic is moot if the restrictions continue, IMO.
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