Sounds like it's sort of like Space Cowboys except about music!
Coronavirus General Discussion
Moderator: Global Moderator
-
mathjak107
- Executive Member
- Posts: 4456
- Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
- Location: bayside queens ny
- Contact:
-
vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9468
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
HEALTH
You Got the Vaccine! What Can You Do Now?
A guide to America’s awkward, semi-vaccinated months
RACHEL GUTMAN
FEBRUARY 25, 2021
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ource=feed
So, first, a very broad guideline for navigating a world in which vaccinations are rising and infections are dropping: Whether you’re vaccinated or not, how much you can safely branch out in your activities and social life depends on the baseline level of virus in your community. You can imagine that, in pandemic life, each of us has been dealt a certain number of risk points that we can spend on seeing friends outside, going to work, sending the kids to day care, and so on. If you or someone you live with is especially vulnerable to the virus, you might choose to spend fewer points by getting groceries delivered; if you live alone in an area where very few people are sick, you might choose to spend more points by forming a bubble with friends. The vaccine delivers you a huge number of bonus points, if you’re lucky enough to get one. And when spread of the virus is low, everyone gets more points.
Saskia Popescu, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at George Mason University, told me that everyone, vaccinated or not, should try to keep track of three metrics in your area: The number of new daily cases per 100,000 people, the rate at which people transmit the virus to one another, and the rate at which people test positive for the virus. Popescu said that there are no magic numbers that would immediately bring the country back to pre-COVID life, but she’ll feel better about reopening when we hit daily case rates of just one to two per 100,000, transmission rates of .5 or less, and test-positivity rates at or below 2 percent. (As of last week, no U.S. state had reached the trifecta, and the country as a whole is still far from it.) Many local public-health departments regularly provide these numbers.
You Got the Vaccine! What Can You Do Now?
A guide to America’s awkward, semi-vaccinated months
RACHEL GUTMAN
FEBRUARY 25, 2021
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ource=feed
So, first, a very broad guideline for navigating a world in which vaccinations are rising and infections are dropping: Whether you’re vaccinated or not, how much you can safely branch out in your activities and social life depends on the baseline level of virus in your community. You can imagine that, in pandemic life, each of us has been dealt a certain number of risk points that we can spend on seeing friends outside, going to work, sending the kids to day care, and so on. If you or someone you live with is especially vulnerable to the virus, you might choose to spend fewer points by getting groceries delivered; if you live alone in an area where very few people are sick, you might choose to spend more points by forming a bubble with friends. The vaccine delivers you a huge number of bonus points, if you’re lucky enough to get one. And when spread of the virus is low, everyone gets more points.
Saskia Popescu, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at George Mason University, told me that everyone, vaccinated or not, should try to keep track of three metrics in your area: The number of new daily cases per 100,000 people, the rate at which people transmit the virus to one another, and the rate at which people test positive for the virus. Popescu said that there are no magic numbers that would immediately bring the country back to pre-COVID life, but she’ll feel better about reopening when we hit daily case rates of just one to two per 100,000, transmission rates of .5 or less, and test-positivity rates at or below 2 percent. (As of last week, no U.S. state had reached the trifecta, and the country as a whole is still far from it.) Many local public-health departments regularly provide these numbers.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
-
vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9468
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Get Whatever Covid-19 Vaccine You Can
by Bruce Y. Lee
NYT > Opinion / 2021-02-26 05:10
When there are multiple shots of varying effectiveness, take whatever is available to you first.
By Bruce Y. Lee
Dr. Lee is the executive director of Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operations Research, a public health research group, and a professor at CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy.
The one-dose coronavirus vaccine developed by Johnson & Johnson will be reviewed on Friday by an advisory committee for the Food and Drug Administration, with authorization by the agency possible as early as Saturday. Assuming F.D.A. approves emergency use of the vaccine, which has been shown to strongly protect recipients against severe disease and death from the virus, there may soon be three different shots on the market in the United States. Another available vaccine for Covid-19 will be a welcome boost to the effort of getting people vaccinated faster.
While any approved vaccine has been deemed safe and effective, there’s a chance some vaccines may be more effective than others. You may wonder if you should hold out for what you perceive to be the very best vaccine, but the evidence suggests that we all should get the first vaccine available to us.
The data shows the Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been 66 percent effective at preventing moderate and severe Covid-19, and has had a 72 percent overall efficacy rate in the United States. That is a bit lower than the measured effectiveness of over 90 percent in preventing symptomatic Covid-19 for the two-dose vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech.
This doesn’t mean that you should try to get one vaccine over the other. That’s for a couple of reasons: Getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible will save the most lives, and for any given person, a “less effective” vaccine will still provide substantial protection against severe Covid-19.
When it comes to slowing or stopping the pandemic, modeling studies from our team of public health researchers and computer scientists show that vaccinating as many people as possible sooner is more important than waiting for a vaccine with higher effectiveness.
We developed a computational simulation model of the entire United States to assess what would happen if people get vaccines of varying levels of efficacy at different rates and times. As we reported in The American Journal of Preventive Medicine, in most cases, getting people vaccinated sooner with a lower efficacy vaccine prevented many more Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths compared to waiting even just a month for a higher efficacy vaccine.
Consider an example: Say the United States was able to get one million people a day fully vaccinated, with a vaccine with 90 percent efficacy (about what’s been happening so far) and continued until 60 percent of the population was fully vaccinated. At this rate, it would take about six and half months.
For comparison, consider a scenario where people are fully vaccinated at a faster rate of 1.5 million a day with a lower efficacy vaccine of around 70 percent until 60 percent of the population was fully vaccinated. At this faster rate, this would take about four months.
We found that this faster scenario with the lower efficacy vaccine could end up preventing on average over 1.38 million more cases, over 51,000 more hospitalizations, and over 6,000 more deaths than the slower- vaccination, higher-efficacy-vaccine scenario. This underscores the importance of getting as much of the population vaccinated as soon as possible to slow the spread of the virus.
People should also avoid putting too much weight on reported vaccine effectiveness numbers in general. A vaccine’s effectiveness may vary based on your risk of catching the virus, potentially dropping as the virus becomes more widespread in a given area.
The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccine Phase 3 clinical trials started last summer, when transmission of the coronavirus was lower than it is now. The Johnson & Johnson Phase 3 trials started about two months later, on Sept. 23, as the transmission of the virus was increasing, possibly because of factors like changing weather conditions and more indoor activity. It’s possible that the real difference between the vaccines’ effectiveness in preventing people from getting sick from Covid-19 is smaller than reported.
Moreover, the effectiveness data that’s been reported so far is only one measure of a vaccine’s benefit. There are different types of effectiveness, not just how well the vaccine prevents Covid-19 with symptoms. For example, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was measured to be 86 percent effective in preventing severe Covid-19 in the United States, which will cut down on crowding at hospitals. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine also requires only one dose and regular refrigeration temperatures for storage, which means it may be easier to distribute.
Finally, this may not be the only time that you will get a Covid-19 vaccine. The vaccines may not offer lifetime protection, especially if new variants continue to emerge, and further doses may be needed to bolster immunity. Getting any of the approved vaccines when you are eligible is important, not just for protecting yourself, but for helping get life back to normal for everyone.
Bruce Y. Lee is the executive director of Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operations Research, a public health research group, and a professor at CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy.
The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
by Bruce Y. Lee
NYT > Opinion / 2021-02-26 05:10
When there are multiple shots of varying effectiveness, take whatever is available to you first.
By Bruce Y. Lee
Dr. Lee is the executive director of Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operations Research, a public health research group, and a professor at CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy.
The one-dose coronavirus vaccine developed by Johnson & Johnson will be reviewed on Friday by an advisory committee for the Food and Drug Administration, with authorization by the agency possible as early as Saturday. Assuming F.D.A. approves emergency use of the vaccine, which has been shown to strongly protect recipients against severe disease and death from the virus, there may soon be three different shots on the market in the United States. Another available vaccine for Covid-19 will be a welcome boost to the effort of getting people vaccinated faster.
While any approved vaccine has been deemed safe and effective, there’s a chance some vaccines may be more effective than others. You may wonder if you should hold out for what you perceive to be the very best vaccine, but the evidence suggests that we all should get the first vaccine available to us.
The data shows the Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been 66 percent effective at preventing moderate and severe Covid-19, and has had a 72 percent overall efficacy rate in the United States. That is a bit lower than the measured effectiveness of over 90 percent in preventing symptomatic Covid-19 for the two-dose vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech.
This doesn’t mean that you should try to get one vaccine over the other. That’s for a couple of reasons: Getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible will save the most lives, and for any given person, a “less effective” vaccine will still provide substantial protection against severe Covid-19.
When it comes to slowing or stopping the pandemic, modeling studies from our team of public health researchers and computer scientists show that vaccinating as many people as possible sooner is more important than waiting for a vaccine with higher effectiveness.
We developed a computational simulation model of the entire United States to assess what would happen if people get vaccines of varying levels of efficacy at different rates and times. As we reported in The American Journal of Preventive Medicine, in most cases, getting people vaccinated sooner with a lower efficacy vaccine prevented many more Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths compared to waiting even just a month for a higher efficacy vaccine.
Consider an example: Say the United States was able to get one million people a day fully vaccinated, with a vaccine with 90 percent efficacy (about what’s been happening so far) and continued until 60 percent of the population was fully vaccinated. At this rate, it would take about six and half months.
For comparison, consider a scenario where people are fully vaccinated at a faster rate of 1.5 million a day with a lower efficacy vaccine of around 70 percent until 60 percent of the population was fully vaccinated. At this faster rate, this would take about four months.
We found that this faster scenario with the lower efficacy vaccine could end up preventing on average over 1.38 million more cases, over 51,000 more hospitalizations, and over 6,000 more deaths than the slower- vaccination, higher-efficacy-vaccine scenario. This underscores the importance of getting as much of the population vaccinated as soon as possible to slow the spread of the virus.
People should also avoid putting too much weight on reported vaccine effectiveness numbers in general. A vaccine’s effectiveness may vary based on your risk of catching the virus, potentially dropping as the virus becomes more widespread in a given area.
The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccine Phase 3 clinical trials started last summer, when transmission of the coronavirus was lower than it is now. The Johnson & Johnson Phase 3 trials started about two months later, on Sept. 23, as the transmission of the virus was increasing, possibly because of factors like changing weather conditions and more indoor activity. It’s possible that the real difference between the vaccines’ effectiveness in preventing people from getting sick from Covid-19 is smaller than reported.
Moreover, the effectiveness data that’s been reported so far is only one measure of a vaccine’s benefit. There are different types of effectiveness, not just how well the vaccine prevents Covid-19 with symptoms. For example, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was measured to be 86 percent effective in preventing severe Covid-19 in the United States, which will cut down on crowding at hospitals. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine also requires only one dose and regular refrigeration temperatures for storage, which means it may be easier to distribute.
Finally, this may not be the only time that you will get a Covid-19 vaccine. The vaccines may not offer lifetime protection, especially if new variants continue to emerge, and further doses may be needed to bolster immunity. Getting any of the approved vaccines when you are eligible is important, not just for protecting yourself, but for helping get life back to normal for everyone.
Bruce Y. Lee is the executive director of Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operations Research, a public health research group, and a professor at CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy.
The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
I think you've earned the right to be nervous about it.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:48 amActually I am a drummer ..I am doing kind of a zoom audition today at 12 pm with a super group of retired big name artists who enjoy playing ...there is a horn section , so we are trying to avoid all of us together at once in the studio ....
I am so nervous about this audition. These are top notch pro players ...the band being made up of the likes of the Ohio players horn section , the BT EXPRESS , CHIC , SPYRA GYRA MEMBERS ,etc lays down some driving funky sounds
As for the kids, if 22 football players in close contact on the field did not transmit the virus during the whole NFL season, their concerns, or rather that of their elders, seems a bit exaggerated to me.
-
mathjak107
- Executive Member
- Posts: 4456
- Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
- Location: bayside queens ny
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Those players were put under a microscope before they could play ...very different then me walking in to a restaurant.
In fact the biggest spreader is ones own family because it is a numbers game ...the more in your city that have the greater the odds you will bring it home
In fact the biggest spreader is ones own family because it is a numbers game ...the more in your city that have the greater the odds you will bring it home
-
dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14289
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
?mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:04 pm Those players were put under a microscope before they could play ...very different then me walking in to a restaurant.
In fact the biggest spreader is ones own family because it is a numbers game ...the more in your city that have______ the greater the odds you will bring it home
{I put in the blank}
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Maybe even crazier than those green tents....
The Los Angeles Unified Daily Pass, brought to you by Microsoft
https://t.co/rLT2RdS63h?amp=1
How did we open the schools in Florida without this?
The Los Angeles Unified Daily Pass, brought to you by Microsoft
https://t.co/rLT2RdS63h?amp=1
How did we open the schools in Florida without this?
-
whatchamacallit
- Executive Member
- Posts: 751
- Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:32 pm
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Terrifying. I felt like I was about to get on high tech theme park ride watching that.pp4me wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 10:44 am Maybe even crazier than those green tents....
The Los Angeles Unified Daily Pass, brought to you by Microsoft
https://t.co/rLT2RdS63h?amp=1
How did we open the schools in Florida without this?
So back to don't send your kid to school if they have a fever? The same thing it has been my entire life.
What a waste money. Congratulations Microsoft on the big payout.
-
vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9468
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
- Capture.JPG (40.33 KiB) Viewed 3291 times
- 2Capture.JPG (57.08 KiB) Viewed 3291 times
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
-
vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9468
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Today I found out that I really do know someone who contracted the virus.
A friend notified me that my Aunt was featured in a front page story in today's Sunday Providence (Rhode Island) Journal.
That aunt is my "young" (87 years old) aunt as she is the last surviving of the 15 or so aunts and uncles from my mother's side. I probably last saw her in the early 1970s. I tried to visit her one weekend in the summer of 1993 but we were never able to come up with a mutually available time. I did talk to her several times in trying to arrange that visit.
I'm thrilled to find out that she IS still alive. I contacted her daughter (my cousin who I've had no contact with since the 1960s) via Facebook to see if I can call my Aunt.
Here is, in part, today's story about her:
A friend notified me that my Aunt was featured in a front page story in today's Sunday Providence (Rhode Island) Journal.
That aunt is my "young" (87 years old) aunt as she is the last surviving of the 15 or so aunts and uncles from my mother's side. I probably last saw her in the early 1970s. I tried to visit her one weekend in the summer of 1993 but we were never able to come up with a mutually available time. I did talk to her several times in trying to arrange that visit.
I'm thrilled to find out that she IS still alive. I contacted her daughter (my cousin who I've had no contact with since the 1960s) via Facebook to see if I can call my Aunt.
Here is, in part, today's story about her:
- Capture.JPG (147.4 KiB) Viewed 3253 times
- 1Capture.JPG (194.29 KiB) Viewed 3253 times
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
-
vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9468
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
- Capture.JPG (55.34 KiB) Viewed 3466 times
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
-
I Shrugged
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2064
- Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Just finished reading this free PDF called "COVID Charts CNN Forgot" by Tom Woods. You have to provide your email address to download it but you can unsubscribe at any time from future mailings....
https://tomwoods.lpages.co/covid-charts-cnn-forgot/
https://tomwoods.lpages.co/covid-charts-cnn-forgot/
You’ve heard it again and again:
The spread of the virus is your fault.
If only you hadn't eaten in that restaurant, or hadn't allowed 11 people at your father's funeral instead of 10, or hadn't acted even slightly like a human being, the numbers would have declined.
Time to smash this as the b.s. it obviously is.
The "blame people for the virus" strategy is a way for public officials who have no idea what they're doing to transfer the blame for their catastrophic failures onto normal people.
This free eBook by New York Times bestselling author Tom Woods smashes the "numbers go up because you refuse to stay home and wear two masks" argument to smithereens.
Click the button below to get your free copy!
-
Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Good to see Rickards is still busy. Because his prognosticating has been oh so accurate!
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Think you might have put this in the wrong thread.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:05 pm Good to see Rickards is still busy. Because his prognosticating has been oh so accurate!
-
Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Vinny has been posting Rickard's tweets higher up about the vaccine
-
dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14289
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
I don't know if it's disingenuous, but its a lot of Rickards with no commentary. An embarrassment of Rickards.MangoMan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:39 pmVinny, I think his point is that you are constantly posting these things without any opinion or commentary, which is disingenuous.
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
For the Rickards, I'm stealing that joke.dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:27 pm I don't know if it's disingenuous, but its a lot of Rickards with no commentary. An embarrassment of Rickards.
-
vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9468
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
MangoMan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:39 pm
Vinny, I think his point is that you are constantly posting these things without any opinion or commentary, which is disingenuous.
Definition: not candid or sincere, typically by pretending that one knows less about something than one really does.
Please explain your assertion.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
-
vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9468
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Generally not a concern of mine. But it seems like this type of thing would be of concern to more than a few here. But maybe I've misread those people.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Ivor Cummins videos do the same thing, but you don't have to sign up for anything. He's also put out a whitepaper on the topic - you can download from his website.pp4me wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:03 pm Just finished reading this free PDF called "COVID Charts CNN Forgot" by Tom Woods. You have to provide your email address to download it but you can unsubscribe at any time from future mailings....
https://tomwoods.lpages.co/covid-charts-cnn-forgot/
You’ve heard it again and again:
The spread of the virus is your fault.
If only you hadn't eaten in that restaurant, or hadn't allowed 11 people at your father's funeral instead of 10, or hadn't acted even slightly like a human being, the numbers would have declined.
Time to smash this as the b.s. it obviously is.
The "blame people for the virus" strategy is a way for public officials who have no idea what they're doing to transfer the blame for their catastrophic failures onto normal people.
This free eBook by New York Times bestselling author Tom Woods smashes the "numbers go up because you refuse to stay home and wear two masks" argument to smithereens.
Click the button below to get your free copy!
Basically, smashing those arguments is like shooting fish in a barrel. It's ridiculously easy to debunk, especially with virtually all published studies in the medical literature finding no benefit for lockdowns. And very few finding any benefit from mask-wearing.
It makes me very concerned that a highly placed NIH institute director (i.e. Fauci) should be so disingenuous and ill-informed about science. And, interested to see just how the media will punish Texas and Mississippi for reopening. I'm sure they have a plan.