Coronavirus General Discussion

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Ad Orientem
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Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:58 am

It's coming if it isn't already here.

A couple news items...

Pope Francis is ill a day after supporting coronavirus sufferers
https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/pope-fran ... rs/?utm_me

The blame game has begun.
...The Trump administration has cut funding for the US Center for Disease Control by 9pc. This month he proposed slashing it a further 16pc. The worst hit area has been pandemic preparation. The CDC’s global health security initiative has been chopped by 80pc, reducing country coverage from 49 to 10.

Mr Trump got rid of the US Complex Crises Fund. He shut down the pandemic and global health machinery at the White House, and fired the lot. He tried to cut the budget of the National Institutes of Health - the world’s finest concentration of science - by 20pc in 2018, and by 27pc in 2019. Congress stopped the worst but damage has been done.

Tom Frieden, ex-head of the CDC, warned two years ago that the cuts would leave the US at the mercy of the next killer virus. “The surveillance systems will die, so we won’t know if something happens. You can’t pull up the drawbridge and expect viruses not to travel,” he said. Ouch.

It has been a war on science. Mr Trump’s cuts have nothing to do with fiscal austerity. They happened just as he was pushing through tax cuts and driving the US cyclically-adjusted budget deficit to 6.3pc of GDP (IMF data), spraying money with Peronist abandon. The science cuts were ideological. Some readers chide me for being an unreconciled Never Trumper. This is why.

And now the White House has a disaster on its hands. “The epidemiological conditions for a pandemic are met,” said Prof Marc Lipsitch, Harvard’s guru on infectious diseases. Don’t be fooled by the seemingly low numbers of infections in the US (57 as I write): the country has tested just 426 people. Only three of the 100 public health labs even have working test kits.

One reason why South Korea appears to have so many cases is because it has carried out 44,981 tests. “They are looking, so they are finding,” says professor Caitlin Rivers from John Hopkins University.
From here...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... nces-bone/
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:51 am

It is interesting to see the blaming. Can't even unify on something like this, jerks.

I can't think of anything that has such potential to crush the world's economy as a virus that can shut everything down for months. Terrorists, war, natural disasters, all are more localized and sharp shocks that seem to be shrugged off quickly. You can see the market trying to shrug this off (as we speak), but seems less likely it will be able to.

Too much is affected.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:57 am

Just another viewpoint. I have no way of independently verifying whether this or anything else in the world is "true". I agree that it would be nice to see politicians take a break on issues like this.
Democratic presidential contenders are describing the federal infectious-disease bureaucracy as rudderless and ill-prepared for the coronavirus threat because of budget cuts and ham-handed leadership by President Donald Trump. That’s a distorted picture. For starters, Trump hasn’t succeeded in cutting the budget.

He’s proposed cuts but Congress ignored him and increased financing instead. The National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention aren’t suffering from budget cuts that never took effect.
AP FACT CHECK: Democrats distort coronavirus readiness
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:04 pm

As always, Elizabeth Warren has a plan!

https://twitter.com/SenWarren/status/12 ... 15461?s=20

::)
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:44 pm

The PP has proven its mettle against inflation, financial crises, an oil embargo, bubbles, and more.

Now we're seeing how it handles a virus scare more severe than SARS and all the rest in real time. Interesting.

Do dividend paying stocks help protect against infection? ::)
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:21 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:04 pm
As always, Elizabeth Warren has a plan!

https://twitter.com/SenWarren/status/12 ... 15461?s=20

::)
The world’s fastest drinking game would be for her saying plan during a speech.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:35 am

Coronavirus 'could be 1,000 times more infectious than SARS, scientists warn as they discover it plagues the body the same way as HIV and Ebola

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... -warn.html
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:07 pm

Avoid all forms of Corona! ::)
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:20 pm

pugchief wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:07 pm
Avoid all forms of Corona! ::)
You know what goes well with coronavirus? Lyme disease!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:30 pm

Xan wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:20 pm
pugchief wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:07 pm
Avoid all forms of Corona! ::)
You know what goes well with coronavirus? Lyme disease!
;D
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:58 pm

Bill Gates: Coronavirus may be ‘once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/bill-ga ... hogen.html

Snip...
Billionaire and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said the coronavirus that has killed at least 2,859 people and infected more than 83,700 globally may be the “once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about.”

“I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise,” Gates wrote in an article published Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine.

Gates and his wife, Melinda, founded The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in 2000 to help improve world health and combat extreme poverty. The foundation announced Feb. 5 that it would donate $100 million to help find treatments and expand testing for the virus, particularly for poorer populations.

According to Gates, COVID-19 poses a serious threat to the world because it’s far more deadly and contagious than many other deadly viruses.

“First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems,” he wrote. “Second, Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase.” World health leaders say the disease is spread by people who are mildly ill or don’t show any symptoms at all, making it harder to contain and more contagious than other types of viruses.

The mortality rate is “many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza,” Gates said. The World Health Organization said the mortality rate of COVID-19 can differ, ranging from 0.7% to up to 4%, depending on the quality of the health-care system where it’s treated. Gates said that its current average estimated fatality rate of around 1% places it somewhere between the 1957 Asian flu pandemic (0.6%) that killed 1.1 million people and the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic (2%) that killed 50 million around the world, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by sophie » Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:12 am

Just to update everybody....my hospital is sending out multiple bulletins a day. Rather annoying, because they all say the same thing: no cases here yet, testing is available, wash your hands a lot, be on the lookout for unexplained fever and respiratory illnesses. They also took the rather surprising step of telling us not to come to work if we're sick. Generally they are very much against the concept of sick days. Also it was kinda funny when they said something like, if you cough, cough into a tissue and throw it out, don't share it with anybody. Yuck, do they really have to tell us that?

quick note to above - the Diamond Princess cruise ship is an excellent testbed for mortality and contagion numbers. There were 2666 passengers and (I'll estimate) 500 crew on board, totaling 3166. There are 705 confirmed cases, which means ~20% rate of clinically apparent infections. I will assume everyone has been exposed and that the remaining people are asymptomatic. Of the cases, the mortality rate among these moderate/severe cases so far is 1% (6 deaths) - for a group where nearly everyone is elderly and thus at the highest level of risk.

So in basically the worst case scenario for exposure to the coronavirus, i.e. guaranteed repeated exposures and elderly, you have a 1 in 5 chance of getting sick and if you get sick, a 1% chance of dying (so far). If it were the flu instead of coronavirus on that ship and there was no such thing as a flu vaccine, the percentage of those on board who get sick would be much higher, and mortality would probably be similar BECAUSE it's the high risk group - the 0.1% mortality rate is average for the general population, remember.

I think most of us know all this already but...just for anyone who might be driving themselves into a panic because journalists can't do math and are inclined to sensationalize everything, here's a counterpoint that might be helpful. Also, if you want to do something constructive, put yourself on a low carb, sugar free diet, take vitamins especially D3, get enough sleep etc. (I ran across an interesting article measuring ability of white blood cells to kill pathogens after eating various forms of sugar or refined carbohydrates...it's cut in half for about 5 hours.)
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Ad Orientem » Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:02 pm

Some Saturday news updates...

First fatality in the US...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... washington

China Reports Catastrophic Data: PMIs Crash To Record Low
https://www.sgtreport.com/2020/02/china ... -collapse/

Coronavirus Tests Limits of Central Bank Firepower
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/busi ... e=Homepage

Automakers are ‘scrambling’ for parts and preparing war rooms as coronavirus spreads
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/29/automak ... reads.html

Trump says the coronavirus is the Democrats’ ‘new hoax’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/trump-s ... -hoax.html

‘Markets will start freezing up even if the Fed cuts rates,’ El-Erian says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/markets ... lainternal

Pope Francis cancels third day of events amid mysterious illness
https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/pope-fran ... s-illness/


It's a great day to be in the Permanent Portfolio.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:05 pm

I know there are Trump supporters on this forum, please tell me how how the democrat hoax statement plays to you. I sat with my 80+ year old parents yesterday, with Fox in the background. And they believe this. They believe the democrats are responsible. They believe if the borders were secure we wouldn't have the virus. After 10 minutes of FOX (or CNN) I get completely exhausted. So much hate.

This virus, when it gets more widespread here, is going to be Trump's biggest challenge to date. And there will be no one to blame but himself and his administration if he decides to continue blaming vs. taking action. Time will tell. He hasn't failed yet, but blaming others at rallies isn't going to work after a few more days.

------From Mish-----
“The Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. They're politicizing it,” he said. “They don't have any clue. They can't even count their votes in Iowa. No, they can't. They can't count their votes. One of my people came up to me and said, ‘Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia.’ That did not work out too well. They could not do it. They tried the impeachment hoax.”

Then Trump called the coronavirus “their new hoax.”

After Trump had downplayed the risks of coronavirus, he reassured supporters that the White House was “magnificently organized” in fighting it. In fact, Trump’s administration spent the week jockeying among themselves to lead the response, while the stock market tumbled with losses not seen since the global financial crisis in 2008.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1233570800223084544
https://youtu.be/ELOZ6fU20Sk
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:18 pm

https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographic ... index.html

Some interesting background from Wuhan.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:09 pm

I have parents 80+ that watch MSNBC, so I feel your pain. I can’t really speak to what people 80+ believe.

But surely(?) you realize that Trump was not calling the coronavirus a hoax. He was (rightly or wrongly) calling the Democrats’ extensive criticism of the administration’s response a hoax.

Of course Democrats then used Trump’s complaint to claim that he actually called the coronavirus a hoax.

It’s hard to keep track of them all. The hoaxes that is.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:42 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:09 pm
I have parents 80+ that watch MSNBC, so I feel your pain. I can’t really speak to what people 80+ believe.

But surely(?) you realize that Trump was not calling the coronavirus a hoax. He was (rightly or wrongly) calling the Democrats’ extensive criticism of the administration’s response a hoax.

Of course Democrats then used Trump’s complaint to claim that he actually called the coronavirus a hoax.

It’s hard to keep track of them all. The hoaxes that is.
On searching, several of the usual suspects in media ran that story. But I was confused, because they all just referenced Trump saying it, without providing any video, which smelled fishy to me. Fox News, of course, actually showed the video, where it seems obvious that flyingpylon has it right.

If you watch Tim Pool's videos about the media's lying techniques you will recognize it.
"You haven't, I suppose, ever mixed with politicians at close quarters. They're awful. I think some of these must have been the dregs anyhow, but I've discovered, what previously I didn't believe possible, that politicians behave in private life and say exactly the same things as they do in public. Their stupidity is inhuman.
- John Maynard Keynes
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:46 pm

To be honest, I thought that the coronavirus provided a perfect scapegoat for a stock market crash. How could anyone blame Trump for a global pandemic causing the stock market to crash (which is long overdue)? I think the Democrats recognized this too and are trying to get out in front of it.
"You haven't, I suppose, ever mixed with politicians at close quarters. They're awful. I think some of these must have been the dregs anyhow, but I've discovered, what previously I didn't believe possible, that politicians behave in private life and say exactly the same things as they do in public. Their stupidity is inhuman.
- John Maynard Keynes
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:44 pm

08AB52C0-03A0-4CC1-9417-90E75CE25393.jpeg
08AB52C0-03A0-4CC1-9417-90E75CE25393.jpeg (170.97 KiB) Viewed 4752 times
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:11 pm

LOL
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:25 pm

It appears the population is still growing. Perhaps someone who is really, really, really uptight about the coronavirus can watch the worldometer and let us know when growth rate and death rate equalize, or better yet get MSNBC and CNN to put it on their sensationalized "news" with minute-by-minute updates. Might be a new thing to do instead of watching the ball drop in Times Square or hand wring over the stock market ..... or when Trump takes a pee. ;)

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:10 pm

Epidemics expert Jonathan Quick: ‘The worst-case scenario for coronavirus is likely’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ra-spinney

WHO chief on coronavirus: Global markets ‘should calm down and try to see the reality’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/01/who-chi ... ality.html
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:25 pm

Image
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." - Alan Greenspan, 1966
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:32 am

No comment.

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by InsuranceGuy » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:31 am

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