WiseOne wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 2:31 pm
<picks self up off floor after laughing hysterically> I guess coronavirus is now officially a yawn of a news story in this city, so we gotta find something else. Time for the holy hand grenade of Antioch!
Thank you Vinny! Can you post a link to that image? I've got a couple of friends who could use a bit of fun in their day.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:20 am
I looked over with sadness that we were complaining about a party like this happening, but I am curious what people here think about such a gathering, a week before these kids go out to different states at different schools.
I don't care. I don't think anyone should be fined for having a party, either.
I'm ready to be done with the whole mess. More than ready.
My gut feel is that holding out hope for a vaccine 'deus ex machina' is a sucker's bet. A bedtime story to placate children and fools.
If no vaccine, then no amount of mask wearing and social distancing will change the final outcome. Let's get on it with it and deal with the repercussions as they happen.
I will grant, though, that mask wearing could slow down the speed of the spread enough that the virus could evolve to something less serious. Unfortunately, there is not predictability to that.
At this point, I'd vote for just letting her rip. For the same reason as when we learned that putting out small forest fires is a bad idea. By saving a few trees, you make the entire forest more fragile. Animal species work the same way. We could be sacrificing the robustness of the human race by our extraordinary measures to prop up the weakest amongst us.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:20 am
Next door was a high school graduation / going to college party. Easily 50+ kids and parents, no distancing no masks.
I looked over with sadness that we were complaining about a party like this happening, but I am curious what people here think about such a gathering, a week before these kids go out to different states at different schools.
Since most of the people at that party weren’t elderly, their risk of complications from Covid-19 is minuscule. Their party helped speed up herd immunity, thus allowing society to recover and move forward more quickly, so they should actually be commended.
I realize that I'm probably the only one that cares, but after being moved from May to August, then reduced to 50% fans, then 25% fans, it was announced today that the Indy 500 will be run with NO fans at all. Major bummer.
flyingpylon wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:08 pm
I realize that I'm probably the only one that cares, but after being moved from May to August, then reduced to 50% fans, then 25% fans, it was announced today that the Indy 500 will be run with NO fans at all. Major bummer.
Rumor has it that they’re next going to announce the removal of all cars from the Indy 500 as well. Won’t be quite the same.
flyingpylon wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:08 pm
I realize that I'm probably the only one that cares, but after being moved from May to August, then reduced to 50% fans, then 25% fans, it was announced today that the Indy 500 will be run with NO fans at all. Major bummer.
Rumor has it that they’re next going to announce the removal of all cars from the Indy 500 as well. Won’t be quite the same.
vnatale wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:11 pmCapture.JPG
You really think that out of all the countries in the world (including third-world countries), the U.S. has done the worst job of slowing the virus’s spread (“hardest-hit”)?
Could the stats possibly have something to do with the fact that the U.S. is doing far more testing than most other countries?
vnatale wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:11 pmCapture.JPG
You really think that out of all the countries in the world (including third-world countries), the U.S. has done the worst job of slowing the virus’s spread (“hardest-hit”)?
Could the stats possibly have something to do with the fact that the U.S. is doing far more testing than most other countries?
Partly, but it also has to do with counting everyone who dies for any reason who tests positive as a covid-19 death.
vnatale wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:11 pmCapture.JPG
You really think that out of all the countries in the world (including third-world countries), the U.S. has done the worst job of slowing the virus’s spread (“hardest-hit”)?
Could the stats possibly have something to do with the fact that the U.S. is doing far more testing than most other countries?
Partly, but it also has to do with counting everyone who dies for any reason who tests positive as a covid-19 death.
I have not heard Trump mention that? He brought out all the charts and tried to make a case about how we are doing so well, but if he could have coherently said something about well you know if you died in a car accident and had Covid, you are listed as dying of Covid in some places, how do you think that affects things?
Check out these youtube videos by Ivor Cummins, a biomedical engineer in Ireland who has done some deep diving into the data. He's made a pretty convincing case that lockdowns & masks accomplish very little. His most interesting conclusion: the best predictor of a nation's COVID mortality is how many people died from flu-like illnesses in 2019, BEFORE Covid came along. It turns out that 2019 was a low-mortality flu year. Low mortality flu years are inevitably followed by high mortality years, just because the pool of susceptible victims has increased. So yes, there are more flu-like syndrome deaths this year than last year because of COVID, but it turns out that if you compare to the last 25 years, this year doesn't even rank in the top 5. In other words, it's not clear that there is ANY notable excess mortality this year. The main effect of COVID is to compress cases into a relatively short period of time - a significant effect to be sure, and a good reason for short-lived lockdowns aimed at "flattening the curve."
The videos are long but I promise they're worth it. This is a very refreshing take. Of course I may be a bit biased since his conclusions fit well with my own, but I share his penchant for letting the data - not the political winds - do the talking.
I will try to watch those videos, but it still begs the question since the majority of people in Trump's admin and I assume most right leaning individuals would have this view, why is none of this concrete information making its way out to the public from the admin, in a clear fashion?
You could ask that very same question about many, many topics. In this case, we have a prevailing mythology promoted by a collection of academic and government officials that is now so set in stone that it's no longer open to question. Facts are then modified or selected to fit the mythology. It's just how things work. Check out all the news articles that say "State XYZ is experiencing a coronavirus surge because of their early lifting of the lockdown." How the heck does the news reporter know that?? Of course he doesn't, but his job is to keep promoting the prevailing mythology.
In order to go against it, you have to be a certain kind of person who is relatively immune from group-think. Sort of like the kind who would invest in the PP, or vote for Trump, or choose not to eat grains. (Not saying that ALL such people vote for Trump, just that immunity from group-think is a pre-requisite for being a Trump voter).
WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:09 pm
In order to go against it, you have to be a certain kind of person who is relatively immune from group-think. ).
So if Trump can't swing it, seems like it isn't going to change. Too bad. Seriously.
WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:09 pmimmunity from group-think is a pre-requisite for being a Trump voter
The rest of your post is brilliant, but I don't think it's possible to be elected president without capturing a significant percentage of the groupthink vote.
Edit: thinking more about your point about narratives: we certainly see the same thing in the financial press, ALL the time. "Markets are up because of XYZ!" or "The market didn't like ABC". Completely bogus. It's making up a story that fits the facts.
WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:09 pmimmunity from group-think is a pre-requisite for being a Trump voter
The rest of your post is brilliant, but I don't think it's possible to be elected president without capturing a significant percentage of the groupthink vote.
Edit: thinking more about your point about narratives: we certainly see the same thing in the financial press, ALL the time. "Markets are up because of XYZ!" or "The market didn't like ABC". Completely bogus. It's making up a story that fits the facts.
Your first point: okay point taken. There is a slice of the electorate who will vote red no matter what. He's got that vote. Other than that, I don't see all that much in the way of groupthink that is running in Trump's favor.
Your second point: YES. It's so intrinsic to everything you almost don't notice it. And the medical literature works the same way: most of it's groupthink as well. Just try writing a paper or grant application that goes against the prevailing view. No matter how carefully you make your case, you won't get anywhere. I truly admire the brave souls who can see past the groupthink to the real story, and disseminate the info clearly. Harry Browne was certainly among them. Based on those two videos, this guy Ivor Cummins is another. I really enjoyed them - seriously guys, highly recommended.
