Coronavirus General Discussion

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Maddy
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy » Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:07 pm

My best friend died just over a week ago after her cancer, previously in remission for two years, returned with a vengeance. I was the closest thing she had to family, and I had her power of attorney. More on that later, because I learned some really important things about planning for incapacity.

Anyway, the whole CoVid thing had my friend literally hunkered down in her home for months, afraid to let anyone in and unwilling to seek medical attention for flat-out organ failure until she quite literally collapsed on the floor and couldn't get up.

My friend was admitted to nursing home/rehab facility direct from the ICU. During that time, no one--not even I--was allowed to visit. When she got very close to death, I was allowed in for two days--but only with full PPE, including mask, face shield, gloves, gown, etc. It was only then that I got a look at what was really going on in the facility, which was not at all okay. Anyway, I got her transferred out and into a hospice house, where things were more or less normalized, and I'm thankful for that. But the whole experience was extremely disconcerting--first, not being able to monitor what was going on in the nursing home, and second, not being able to have the kinds of interactions that people need to be able to have when someone they're close to is dying.

I'm incredibly angry over the whole situation. If and when we find out that this situation was in any part contrived, it's going to take four-point restraints to keep me from clawing the perpetrators' eyes out.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:09 pm

For my part I am boycotting the virtual schooling my son is being force to do for 5th grade. 81% of parents here chose to send their kids back and the district decided on virtual learning anyway. So they have like 7 zoom meetings a day scheduled for a 9 year old. And since his mother and I both work full time (she worked 60+ hours last week) I am using that as my excuse as to why I cannot be there standing next to him every day making sure he logs on to all of his meetings and classwork etc.

That is a reason of course and it is a good one. But I am also doing my small part to express an opinion that for a 10 year old special needs child, this is not really school and I am not going to pretend that it is. It will probably mean nothing and may make me labelled by the school as one of "those" parents. But someone has to stand up to this. If everyone just goes along with virtual schooling and they get a high compliance rate then they will just keep it going. The only way to stop it is to not participate. Either refuse to do online learning or just withdraw from the ISD altogether. It wont matter unless they get a large number doing it. But it has to start somewhere and I am not going to wait to see if everyone else starts the ball rolling.

And as I stated in another post, they have already cancelled the annual 5th grade outdoor science overnight trip scheduled for April!! 8 months away!!
They are substituting virtual science modules instead. So my patience with the school system has about run its course. Unfortunately my property tax dollars have not.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:24 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 1:28 pm
And the panic continues...

Recent email blast from a prominent NY university noted that comprehensive testing of tens of thousands of staff and students has yielded exactly zero positive results.

And the city reported 330 new cases today. It’s been like that since early May.

So naturally the email also announced the decision that all classes this fall will be virtual. The plague and all, ya know.
The NBA "bubble" seems to be working. No reported cases since I don't know when.

Vinny
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:26 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 1:42 pm
WiseOne wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 1:28 pm
And the panic continues...

Recent email blast from a prominent NY university noted that comprehensive testing of tens of thousands of staff and students has yielded exactly zero positive results.

And the city reported 330 new cases today. It’s been like that since early May.

So naturally the email also announced the decision that all classes this fall will be virtual. The plague and all, ya know.
If universities can do all online classes (and retain their students/tuition, I suppose) I'd think it would generate a massive profit this year. Eliminate or greatly reduce the expense of dining facilities, libraries, dorms, classrooms, and non-football sports.. plus their concomitant janitors, cooks, dishwashers, TAs, etc.
Do you think all of this will result in a massive rethinking of what REALLY needs to be done in person? Classes, business meetings, and so on?

Vinny
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:34 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 1:31 pm
...
So for two days, I had to take my mask on and off dozens of times a day in our own recovery room while I was also trying to cope with a lack of sleep and the excitement and stress of having a new baby. It was a bit much.
Congrats on the baby! I knew one was coming but I completely missed cigar day.
jalanlong wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 1:16 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:23 pm
jalanlong wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:00 pm
The crap I really hate about this is all of the awkward situations it puts you into. When I had to deliver a package to a business a few weeks ago and I went to hand it to the person who opened the door, once I got about 4 feet from her she yelled out "DON'T COME ANY CLOSER!!"

Just now I had a pizza delivery. When I open the door he sets the pizza on the ground and then looks at me and sheepishly asks "Umm..did you want me to hand it to you or just put it down." IDK really. If I tell you just to lay it down am I suggesting that you are a dirty Corona human? Although you did make my food so if I am going to consume the food you prepared does it really matter if I touch the box you touched?
Just out of curiosity, were you wearing a mask in either scenario? You didn't mention.
I wasn't. In the first scenario it was sort of before mask mania hit and everything was about social distancing. It is one thing to ask me to politely step back but she screamed at the top of her lungs.

In the second scenario I was coming out of my front door so no mask there either. I don't really care whether he hands me the pizza or not. It's just this whole thing seems to put people into a lot of Curb Your Enthusiasm situations.
I nearly always put on a mask before answering the door. It may be doing nothing, and still I think it makes delivery people feel better. Where I live, they're mostly wearing masks, including the few times I ran to the door and forgot mine. I also put it on for me. Do I feel like I have to put one on when I answer my door? No.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:04 pm

vnatale wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:26 pm
Do you think all of this will result in a massive rethinking of what REALLY needs to be done in person? Classes, business meetings, and so on?
Not everyone is a super-introvert like you, Vinny.

For most people, “virtual life” is proving to be a hollow shell of the real thing.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mark Leavy » Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:07 pm

Maddy wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:07 pm
My best friend died just over a week ago after her cancer,
...
horrific story.
Damn, Maddy.
I don't know where to start. Everyone on the fringe is being hurt.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:10 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:04 pm
vnatale wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:26 pm
Do you think all of this will result in a massive rethinking of what REALLY needs to be done in person? Classes, business meetings, and so on?
Not everyone is a super-introvert like you, Vinny.

For most people, “virtual life” is proving to be a hollow shell of the real thing.
You are definitely correct on that one. About 75% of people are extroverts. And, this is all hard on them.

The remaining 25% are introverts. Not as hard on then but they most of them are not to the extreme as I am (which must be somewhere of only 1 to 5% of the total population).

Vinny
Last edited by vnatale on Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:10 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:07 pm
Maddy wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:07 pm
My best friend died just over a week ago after her cancer,
...
horrific story.
Damn, Maddy.
I don't know where to start. Everyone on the fringe is being hurt.
Yeah, that's a nightmare. :-(
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:38 pm

Maddy wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:07 pm
My best friend died just over a week ago after her cancer, previously in remission for two years, returned with a vengeance. I was the closest thing she had to family, and I had her power of attorney. More on that later, because I learned some really important things about planning for incapacity.

Anyway, the whole CoVid thing had my friend literally hunkered down in her home for months, afraid to let anyone in and unwilling to seek medical attention for flat-out organ failure until she quite literally collapsed on the floor and couldn't get up.

My friend was admitted to nursing home/rehab facility direct from the ICU. During that time, no one--not even I--was allowed to visit. When she got very close to death, I was allowed in for two days--but only with full PPE, including mask, face shield, gloves, gown, etc. It was only then that I got a look at what was really going on in the facility, which was not at all okay. Anyway, I got her transferred out and into a hospice house, where things were more or less normalized, and I'm thankful for that. But the whole experience was extremely disconcerting--first, not being able to monitor what was going on in the nursing home, and second, not being able to have the kinds of interactions that people need to be able to have when someone they're close to is dying.

I'm incredibly angry over the whole situation. If and when we find out that this situation was in any part contrived, it's going to take four-point restraints to keep me from clawing the perpetrators' eyes out.
Oh my Maddy, my condolences. That whole situation stinks. :'(
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:39 pm

Maddy wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:07 pm
My best friend died just over a week ago after her cancer, previously in remission for two years, returned with a vengeance. I was the closest thing she had to family, and I had her power of attorney. More on that later, because I learned some really important things about planning for incapacity.

Anyway, the whole CoVid thing had my friend literally hunkered down in her home for months, afraid to let anyone in and unwilling to seek medical attention for flat-out organ failure until she quite literally collapsed on the floor and couldn't get up.

My friend was admitted to nursing home/rehab facility direct from the ICU. During that time, no one--not even I--was allowed to visit. When she got very close to death, I was allowed in for two days--but only with full PPE, including mask, face shield, gloves, gown, etc. It was only then that I got a look at what was really going on in the facility, which was not at all okay. Anyway, I got her transferred out and into a hospice house, where things were more or less normalized, and I'm thankful for that. But the whole experience was extremely disconcerting--first, not being able to monitor what was going on in the nursing home, and second, not being able to have the kinds of interactions that people need to be able to have when someone they're close to is dying.

I'm incredibly angry over the whole situation. If and when we find out that this situation was in any part contrived, it's going to take four-point restraints to keep me from clawing the perpetrators' eyes out.
Maddy I'm so sorry. What a terrible situation. I'm surprised she wasn't discharged straight to hospice from the ICU, and good on you for getting that done. Yes, the lockdown of nursing homes, while medically justified given how vulnerable that population is from COVID, had some truly tragic results. But in this case, your friend didn't belong in a nursing home, and COVID shouldn't have been the most important concern. It was the hospital that screwed up (specifically the social workers who arranged placement).

I definitely would like to hear more about planning for incapacity. I'm in the process of getting a new POA for my mom, to cover her business as well as the personal POA I already have. I'm annoyed with her attorneys for not suggesting that at the start, and I'd assumed the POA I had would serve for both.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:28 pm

Maddy, that sucks. So very sorry to hear it.

Vinny, I don’t know how you can embrace virtual meetings. There’re no subtitles.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Sat Aug 15, 2020 7:15 pm

Just returned from my 10 mile bike ride that takes me through two city parks which have been nearly deserted since the start of the COVID lockdowns.

They have a basketball court in the park that's closest to me so I bought a basketball to shoot some hoops and get some exercise just before the lockdowns started only to discover they had removed all the rims and nets.

To my great surprise today there was a little league baseball game going on and one of the parking lots was completely full. People were sitting in bleachers and lawn chairs without social distancing and OMG, NOBODY was wearing a mask. They were all just acting normal and nobody had called the police yet.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Aug 15, 2020 9:25 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:11 pm
Hmm, what does surrounding each person in mask-like material sound like? Remember the term "cocooning" from the 1980s & 90s?

I guess we could call what's happening now "advanced, government-mandated cocooning". To do it temporarily in response to an acute crisis is one thing, but this is looking like it's going to be the new normal. There's no concrete or achievable endpoint and the vast majority of the population has bought into it without question. I wonder what human life is going to be like? As an introvert/homebody/crazy cat lady nearing retirement age this isn't going to bother me all that much, but what about the generation now in their teens and twenties? Where will be their sense of adventure? When they read books like John Steinbeck's "Travels with Charley", "Into the Wild", or Jack Kerouac, what will they make of them?

Every time I read an article or hear about young people violating the rules, I'm thrilled. Good for them. My niece for example is traveling around Italy right now and having a wonderful time. Good for her too.
It fucking sucks for us Millennials too. Like most years of our lives ;D ;D ;D
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:10 pm

How the Pandemic Defeated America: Ed Yong on How COVID-19 Humiliated Planet’s Most Powerful Nation

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/8/11/ ... s_response
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:54 am

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by GT » Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:22 am

Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity — the point at which the virus can no longer spread because there are not enough vulnerable humans — scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought."

I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by shekels » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:34 am

GT wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:22 am
Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity — the point at which the virus can no longer spread because there are not enough vulnerable humans — scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought."

I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Looks Like the U.S. has peaked, varies by state.
We had Lock downs, So we did not overwhelm the hospitals..

It seems to me the majority of the population are going to be/ or have been exposed to the Virus.
Most people will survive the Covid virus.

It is the illness and death Rate that counts and we know who is at increased risk of severe illness from Covid.

https://covidtracking.com/data/
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by WiseOne » Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:01 am

Here's an interesting take on the true impact of COVID....

Because of extreme variability in testing rates and criteria, COVID mortality is probably the most reliable indicator of the extent of the epidemic. Yet, this is problematic too. There are errors in case counts in both directions: people who died but were never tested, deaths wrongly attributed to COVID due to a positive test, deaths from "collateral damage" due to people delaying or forgoing care, and negative effects from the economic devastation wrought by lockdowns. There's also the question of how many COVID victims would have died anyway of something else, given the age distribution of deaths and association with medical conditions already known to predispose to most of the things that kill you e.g. cardiovascular disease.

I think the best way to examine the data is to look at excess deaths by month compared not to just last year, but the last several years (e.g. taking an average from the last 5 years). Turns out the Economist has been collecting exactly that data, and it's published on this website plus downloadable from GitHub:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... -countries

The subtitle is that deaths have been undercounted, but here's what I found interesting about the chart. In nearly all cities & countries, there was a lower than average death rate in the months prior to the COVID uptick. How much lower we don't know, because all lower rates are represented by a single color. It suggests to me that the flu was unusually light this past year, which would leave us with an unusually large population susceptible to COVID. Or, if COVID hadn't come along, next year's flu virus.

Second, there are two patterns in the rise of excess deaths. They are staggered across locations, as expected given the time required for the virus to take hold at each site. The ones affected earlier peaked and then started coming down, taking about 6 weeks to get through the period of >25% excess mortality. Afterwards, the mortality rates drop and become average to lower than average , once again suggesting that a substantial proportion of COVID deaths simply displaced deaths from other causes. The second pattern are areas that have a prolonged period of excess deaths and haven't yet returned to normal mortality rates (Mexico City, Peru, Ecuador, Jakarta). I assume this is some combination of genetic susceptibility (Hispanics are truly suffering disproportionately from COVID and it's not clear why) and slow spread in a given country that is hidden by the data averages, such as is happening in the U.S.

Missing from this chart is the extent of variability from "normal" mortality (zero on this chart), so that we can judge what is significantly higher or lower than normal. Recoloring this chart to show numbers not significantly different from zero (e.g. mean +/- 3 standard deviations) as their own color would have been super helpful. Otherwise, you can't really tell whether the US is showing currently increased mortality, or mortality within the expected range for this time of year. If I have some time to kill next weekend I might download that data and see if I can figure that out.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:27 pm

GT wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:22 am
Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity —
...
I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
We don’t have to die. We just have to sustain scarred lungs and mysterious random problems.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pp4me » Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:34 pm

shekels wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:34 am
GT wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:22 am
Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity — the point at which the virus can no longer spread because there are not enough vulnerable humans — scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought."

I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Looks Like the U.S. has peaked, varies by state.
We had Lock downs, So we did not overwhelm the hospitals..

It seems to me the majority of the population are going to be/ or have been exposed to the Virus.
Most people will survive the Covid virus.

It is the illness and death Rate that counts and we know who is at increased risk of severe illness from Covid.

https://covidtracking.com/data/
They are finally reporting in the news that Florida has peaked in both cases and deaths but I've been watching every day and the deaths have been decreasing for a long time. I'm sure there will be a lot of people trying to take credit for some policy or other that worked but my uneducated guess is that it's simply nature running its course.

As for herd immunity I've heard it could be as low as 20% and though I've not heard anybody say it my theory is that the reason it's so low is because there was more natural immunity than what was suggested in the beginning so if that was true for 50% of the people you would only need 20% to get COVID to get to 70%.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by glennds » Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:38 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:27 pm
GT wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:22 am
Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity —
...
I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
We don’t have to die. We just have to sustain scarred lungs and mysterious random problems.
If you accept 55% as the herd immunity threshold, then in the US, approximately 182MM would have to get it, and at a fatality rate of 3% in the US, about 5.4MM would die. Some speculate that in this scenario the fatality rate would be higher because the health care system would be overrun. I don't know if that's a valid concern, but either way, it would be a lot of death. The other 177.6MM might have scarred up lungs and mysterious random problems as you say.

If you feel that a different herd immunity threshold is more appropriate, then just re-do the math.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by jalanlong » Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:39 pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/why-a ... l-covid-19

Any thoughts on the final summary statements that history will judge the shutdowns as the worst policy decision of our lifetimes?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:16 pm

glennds wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:38 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:27 pm
GT wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:22 am
Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity —
...
I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
We don’t have to die. We just have to sustain scarred lungs and mysterious random problems.
If you accept 55% as the herd immunity threshold, then in the US, approximately 182MM would have to get it, and at a fatality rate of 3% in the US, about 5.4MM would die. Some speculate that in this scenario the fatality rate would be higher because the health care system would be overrun. I don't know if that's a valid concern, but either way, it would be a lot of death. The other 177.6MM might have scarred up lungs and mysterious random problems as you say.

If you feel that a different herd immunity threshold is more appropriate, then just re-do the math.
Thanks
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:30 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:16 pm
glennds wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:38 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:27 pm
GT wrote:
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:22 am
Good news - The New York Times reports on a "what if story" on herd immunity

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/what- ... d=msedgntp

"To achieve so-called herd immunity —
...
I could be wrong, but early on, I thought millions would have to die in the US before herd immunity was reached - maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
We don’t have to die. We just have to sustain scarred lungs and mysterious random problems.
If you accept 55% as the herd immunity threshold, then in the US, approximately 182MM would have to get it, and at a fatality rate of 3% in the US, about 5.4MM would die. Some speculate that in this scenario the fatality rate would be higher because the health care system would be overrun. I don't know if that's a valid concern, but either way, it would be a lot of death. The other 177.6MM might have scarred up lungs and mysterious random problems as you say.

If you feel that a different herd immunity threshold is more appropriate, then just re-do the math.
Thanks
That scenario is not possible. Measures would be taken way before. At the current rate of 1,000 deaths a day, to get to ~5.2MM would take 14 years! If anything, a vaccine will happen way before then.
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