Coronavirus General Discussion

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Cortopassi
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:17 pm

Just thought I would post this link, I am offering no comments on it, just thought it was interesting on the scale of the study. Mortality of mask mandates vs. not vs. country. I have no idea if there were important variables not accounted for, and I don't understand the majority of the statistical terms.

https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S074 ... 2/fulltext

Snippet:

In a retrospective cohort study, changes in COVID-19-related daily mortality rate per million population from February 15 to May 31, 2020 were compared between 27 countries with and 17 countries without face mask mandates in nearly 1 billion (911,446,220 total) people. Longitudinal mixed effect modeling was applied and adjusted for over 10 relevant demographic, social, clinical, and time dependent confounders.

Average COVID-19 mortality per million was 288.54 in countries without face mask policies and 48.40 in countries with face mask policies. In no mask countries, adjusted average daily increase was 0.1553 – 0.0017 × (days since first case) log deaths per million, compared with 0.0900 – 0.0009 × (days since first case) log deaths per million in the countries with a mandate. Sixty days into the pandemic, countries without face mask mandates had an average daily increase of 0.0533 deaths per million, compared with the average daily increase of countries with face mask mandates, at 0.0360 deaths per million.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:42 pm

And interestingly, left leaning The Atlantic, showing mask wearing in schools likely provides little benefit.

See, we CAN be liberal and not drink all the damn Koolaid!

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... ky/621035/

Snippets:

Scientists generally agree that, according to the research literature, wearing masks can help protect people from the coronavirus, but the precise extent of that protection, particularly in schools, remains unknown—and it might be very small.

With Biden in the White House, the CDC has promised to “follow the science” in its COVID policies. Yet the circumstances around the Arizona study seem to show the opposite. Dubious research has been cited after the fact, without transparency, in support of existing agency guidance.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:47 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:52 am
Even though there has been no data to indicate that there is anything to fear about the Omicron variant, evidently you cannot be too careful. And again this is more than just being forced to wear a mask in Home Depot:

DePaul University in Chicago announced yesterday they would move classes online for the month of January

Middlebury College in Vermont, which is 99 percent vaccinated, is immediately moving to remote instruction and told students to leave campus immediately if possible. They will take all of their final exams online, and all athletic games and social events are canceled. Students who are stuck on campus may not eat in the cafeteria: All meals will be grab-and-go. Mask wearing is required.

Cornell University suspended all school-sponsored events and urged students not to socialize. The administration said that the 90 active cases of COVID-19 on the campus are "deeply concerning," even though not a single one has been severe or required hospitalization.
Argh, my younger one is considering Cornell. I think I need to add a column to the college comparison spreadsheet that is "School's reaction to Covid"
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:33 pm

A close friend of mine is just now visiting Sweden. He reports that there is no masking whatsoever, and everything appears to be "normal".
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Tue Dec 21, 2021 5:24 pm

Another good friend tested positive yesterday. So far she is just congested. Hope it doesn’t turn into anything serious as she is caring for her very elderly mother who has severe kidney issues.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Vil » Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:23 am

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:33 pm
A close friend of mine is just now visiting Sweden. He reports that there is no masking whatsoever, and everything appears to be "normal".
Come on, Swedish folks are amateurs - read on below ... Moreover, they have 80+ % of vaccinated people !

Here, we have just a bit over 30% of fully vaccinated people, mortality is higher than ever, and noone really cares. Personally, I have at least a dozen of people that I know who passed away due to Covid. The same with all my friends - everyone has many known people that passed away. But come on - it's just the casual business of life and death. Nothing can bring this country of anarchists and misbelievers down (unless it can) !

FYI - I live in the country that takes the honorable last place (very bottom) in the diagram.

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:37 am

That's a heck of a chart Vil.

And Omicron, regardless of your position on the vaccine and virus, shows it is impossible to contain a spread unless you are on some small island in the Pacific or something. The transmission rate is incredible to see. It seems like we just heard of it out of South Africa and now >73% of the cases in the US are that variant.

At least this aspect may finally blow the lid off there being any usefulness of travel restrictions.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:04 am

Vil wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:23 am
Personally, I have at least a dozen of people that I know who passed away due to Covid. The same with all my friends - everyone has many known people that passed away.
Wow. That's a very different experience from that of most of us here, I think.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Vil » Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:37 am

Yes, its kind of unbelievable. Reading this thread I suspect we (i.e. humans, supposedly there are no robots posting here, even having some repeatable statements here and there ;) ) fall prey of what I call "context-bias" - we think what we see outside our window is the weather all over the world.
And just in case someone has any doubts about the plausibility of this diagram from ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), can share diagrams from our national statistics institute showing the overall (Covid + non-Covid caused) mortality rate of the 2020 and 2021 years, compared with previous years - truly eye opening
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Vil » Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:46 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:37 am
regardless of your position on the vaccine and virus,
Well, not sure it was ever mentioned by me, or you got the wrong impression from some of my posts, but I contracted Covid last spring (kids brought it from school). Afterwards got fully vaccinated too. Even though I still have good enough immune system (which I owe to the many active years spent doing regular outdoor/hiking activities) , I can surely state that my body feels slightly different in the post-Covid days.

PS. Already dualstow rightly noted that I do not express myself properly sometimes, apologies for that, (obviously) I am not native speaker. And also stating Nothing can bring this country of anarchists and misbelievers down was my clumsy way to make an ironic note.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:56 am

This Newsletter might be of interest. I think someone might have linked to it before but I did not search this forum to verify. The author (YLE) seems to be more objective and non-political than most. Here is the link and an excerpt:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substac ... yjUI6uYT18

Boosters
Not nearly enough people have their boosters in the United States: 32% of eligible Americans and 55% of those 65+. Omicron has motivated people to get boosted, though. Omicron is convincing 1 in 8 unvaccinated to change their mind, too. One thing that’s increasingly obvious is how important boosters be in our projections. While we will start seeing an uptick in cases, we will continue to see a distinct pattern between unvaccinated, vaccinated, and boosted. Massachusetts has a great graph illustrating this effect so far. (Mountaineer's comment based on the graph: Boosted people are 31 times less likely to test positive than the unvaccinated.)

Bottom line
As expected, Omicron is taking hold in the United States and case rates will start skyrocketing across the country. What this means for our hospital systems is yet to be seen. As with everything in public health, we prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Love, YLE

“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD— an epidemiologist, biostatistician, professor, researcher, wife, and mom of two little girls. During the day she has a research lab and teaches graduate-level courses, but at night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions, rather than decisions based in fear. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, please subscribe here:
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:22 am

Vil wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:46 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:37 am
regardless of your position on the vaccine and virus,
Well, not sure it was ever mentioned by me, or you got the wrong impression from some of my posts, but I contracted Covid last spring (kids brought it from school). Afterwards got fully vaccinated too. Even though I still have good enough immune system (which I owe to the many active years spent doing regular outdoor/hiking activities) , I can surely state that my body feels slightly different in the post-Covid days.

PS. Already dualstow rightly noted that I do not express myself properly sometimes, apologies for that, (obviously) I am not native speaker. And also stating Nothing can bring this country of anarchists and misbelievers down was my clumsy way to make an ironic note.
When I am using "your" I didn't mean you specifically, it was meant to mean "everyone reading these posts"
-----
And this statement is so true, and was very clearly evidenced by someone on here with the initials SD, always wondering why he specifically didn't know anyone who got sick or died....

"Yes, its kind of unbelievable. Reading this thread I suspect we (i.e. humans, supposedly there are no robots posting here, even having some repeatable statements here and there ;) ) fall prey of what I call "context-bias" - we think what we see outside our window is the weather all over the world."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by barrett » Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:25 am

Vil,

Thanks for sharing what is going on in Bulgaria. I have a soft spot for your country as I had such pleasant travels there almost 20 years ago. I guess the only silver lining is that a lot of people must have quite high levels of natural immunity through infections at this point. I knew two people who died early on from Covid but don't know of anyone here in the US who has lost so many from their social circle. Hope the situation there is on the upswing!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:16 pm

Vil wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:46 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:37 am
regardless of your position on the vaccine and virus,
Well, not sure it was ever mentioned by me, or you got the wrong impression from some of my posts, but I contracted Covid last spring (kids brought it from school). Afterwards got fully vaccinated too. Even though I still have good enough immune system (which I owe to the many active years spent doing regular outdoor/hiking activities) , I can surely state that my body feels slightly different in the post-Covid days.

PS. Already dualstow rightly noted that I do not express myself properly sometimes, apologies for that, (obviously) I am not native speaker. And also stating Nothing can bring this country of anarchists and misbelievers down was my clumsy way to make an ironic note.
Your written English is excellent. Better than most Americans.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:20 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:16 pm
Vil wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:46 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:37 am
regardless of your position on the vaccine and virus,
Well, not sure it was ever mentioned by me, or you got the wrong impression from some of my posts, but I contracted Covid last spring (kids brought it from school). Afterwards got fully vaccinated too. Even though I still have good enough immune system (which I owe to the many active years spent doing regular outdoor/hiking activities) , I can surely state that my body feels slightly different in the post-Covid days.

PS. Already dualstow rightly noted that I do not express myself properly sometimes, apologies for that, (obviously) I am not native speaker. And also stating Nothing can bring this country of anarchists and misbelievers down was my clumsy way to make an ironic note.
Your written English is excellent. Better than most Americans.
Indeed. Far better than I could do in Bulgarian, or anything else! And you could have fooled me for a native speaker.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:00 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:42 pm

That's bc most Americans are ignorant. But I have a solution: Instead of trying to actually teach children things that are important, let's lower the standards for everyone so no one feels left out, and concentrate on things other than math, science and English. What could go wrong? [/rant]
I truly believe you have been away from school age children for too long to believe this. At least in our suburban Chicago school district, you know this is not true.

I can't speak for other districts, and I hear anecdotes like you do, but really, for the majority of everyone on this board, with middle or upper class incomes and living conditions and school districts, we have some of the best schooling in the world.

And don't post links to stuff like the teacher who thinks math is racist...I know there is some weird stuff going on here and there, but there is weird stuff all over this country in everything!

And hey, I'm an engineer, I took so many math classes I don't even remember the names of. But math and science aren't the be all end all. Basic knowledge (IMO) up to some algebra, geometry and some stats can suit most kids just fine.

I've missed our back and forths for a couple weeks, pug! :P
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by boglerdude » Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:17 am

https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/14 ... 6868149248
Gates: "Omicron is spreading faster than any virus in history"

Orly? The entire world is aware of SARs through social media and is taking (often ridiculous) precautions. Meanwhile during Spanish Flu they weren't giving out millions of masks and no one could afford to stay home. Plus unprecedented population mixing from the world war with obviously sick soldiers packed into trenches.

Why is he getting into this controversy when he could be working on malaria, cholera, tuberculosis, cancer

edit1: And millions have been vaccinated against SARS2 and millions more have acquired/natural immunity.

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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:23 am

Vil wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:46 am
PS. Already dualstow rightly noted that I do not express myself properly sometimes, apologies for that, (obviously) I am not native speaker. And also stating Nothing can bring this country of anarchists and misbelievers down was my clumsy way to make an ironic note.
I don’t follow this thread closely and I just saw this post. Vil, your English is absolutely excellent, and if I misconstrued something you said, it wasn’t your language.
I think you must be referring to that post in which I couldn’t tell if you were joking or not. I have that problem with Technovelist all the time. I might be “on the spectrum.” O0
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:33 am

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:16 pm

Vil wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:46 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:37 am

regardless of your position on the vaccine and virus,


Well, not sure it was ever mentioned by me, or you got the wrong impression from some of my posts, but I contracted Covid last spring (kids brought it from school). Afterwards got fully vaccinated too. Even though I still have good enough immune system (which I owe to the many active years spent doing regular outdoor/hiking activities) , I can surely state that my body feels slightly different in the post-Covid days.

PS. Already dualstow rightly noted that I do not express myself properly sometimes, apologies for that, (obviously) I am not native speaker. And also stating Nothing can bring this country of anarchists and misbelievers down was my clumsy way to make an ironic note.


Your written English is excellent. Better than most Americans.


Agree!!!!!!!!!!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:36 am

boglerdude wrote:
Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:17 am

https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/14 ... 6868149248
Gates: "Omicron is spreading faster than any virus in history"

Orly? The entire world is aware of SARs through social media and is taking (often ridiculous) precautions. Meanwhile during Spanish Flu they weren't giving out millions of masks and no one could afford to stay home. Plus unprecedented population mixing from the world war with obviously sick soldiers packed into trenches.




Plus they were in close quarters when in the barracks in the United States and in ships while going to Europe. On top of that there were war bond drives with tons of people packed in in the streets.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by barrett » Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:02 am

boglerdude wrote:
Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:17 am
https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/14 ... 6868149248
Gates: "Omicron is spreading faster than any virus in history"
I'm not a virologist but I am guessing that Gates is talking about the reproductive rate (R Number or R Nought). Here is the first link I found:

https://inews.co.uk/news/science/omicro ... ue-1340005

I've seen different values for this with Omicron but it seems to be between 3 and 4 with a current doubling of positive tests every two days roughly. Maybe not the absolute fastest in history but super fast nonetheless. And probably the fastest worldwide with countries being so interconnected. Yeah, flights were stopped from southern African nations but the cat was long out of the bag at that point.

The good news would seem to be that the next few weeks are going to be crap but this may pass quite quickly and there could be a lot more society-wide immunity. Just what I have gleaned from Dr. John Campbell's daily YouTube updates.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by whatchamacallit » Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:41 pm

Another thing I learned from Dr John Campbell.

Start taking your vitamin d and zinc now so you will be ready when you do get exposed.

Your body needs time to process the vitamin d.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by barrett » Fri Dec 24, 2021 6:12 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:41 pm
Your body needs time to process the vitamin d.
That part I did not know. I also started taking Vitamin D a couple of weeks ago because of Dr. John Campbell. Have not done Zinc yet but will pick some up today. Campbell's daily updates give me most of the info I need to know on this virus though I really only started watching recently. Thanks for the reminder, whatchamacallit!
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 24, 2021 12:22 pm

While it’s not entirely untrue, it’s a gross oversimplification. I mean, I know (knew) no fewer than 7 people who died. Zero of them were obese. But, I’m sorry you had to wear a mask at the restaurant.

(At this point, I have different feelings about the virus than I did in early 2020, I should mention. I am double-vaxxed. i think Omicron spreads easily but is not lethal, especially to the vaxed. I am anti-lockdown, and pro getting on with life).

I still think the harris-christakis podcast is worth a listen. In contrast, Adams is a crank with occasional humorous insights.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:43 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Fri Dec 24, 2021 1:13 pm
Sincerely sorry for your loss.
thank you
You admit it's not untrue, but still try and minimize the logic. And who said anything about restaurants? That's a strawman.
It’s been a regular complaint of yours, well documented here.

The points were:

1. Although there are certainly exceptions, the virus is not deadly for most people who are not obese or very old.
Adams didn’t saying anything about old people— part of the reason I stated it’s a gross oversimplification.
You invited disagreements to Adams’ specific post, not details that you might reveal piecemeal, in the future.

2. Even if caution was warranted in Feb-Apr 2020, the overreaction that persists has been extremely detrimental to children and has been a colossal infringement on everyone's freedom.
Again, Adams wrote, “look back at the pandemic” and now you’re chopping specific time slices and presenting them as part of his quote (“the points were”).
On top of that, I already commented on “the overreaction that persists” even though those are your words and not Adams’. And as you can see, they are not that different from how you feel. I think.

For that reason, i have no further comment on the current situation, but my comment on Adams’ post stands.
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