Coronavirus General Discussion

[barrett]

As for why I choose not to wear a mask it's because I don't believe they work just as Fauci originally stated. As I stated in a post above Hawaii and Florida now have the lowest case counts per capita in the U.S. One has had mask mandates for a long time and still have them while the other (Florida) had them for only a short while at the beginning of the pandemic and no longer do. So that makes my point for me. I believe that when the data is looked at more closely in the future it will be hard to prove that mask mandates made much of a difference. Same with other mandates.

I happen to hate wearing a mask and avoid doing so whenever possible (which is probably 99% of the time). But if you are going to compare Covid outcomes in Florida & Hawaii, you also should know that Florida has lost 2,770 people per million due to Covid-related illness while Hawaii is currently at 658 per million.

[flyingpylon]

As for why I choose not to wear a mask it's because I don't believe they work just as Fauci originally stated. As I stated in a post above Hawaii and Florida now have the lowest case counts per capita in the U.S. One has had mask mandates for a long time and still have them while the other (Florida) had them for only a short while at the beginning of the pandemic and no longer do. So that makes my point for me. I believe that when the data is looked at more closely in the future it will be hard to prove that mask mandates made much of a difference. Same with other mandates.

I happen to hate wearing a mask and avoid doing so whenever possible (which is probably 99% of the time). But if you are going to compare Covid outcomes in Florida & Hawaii, you also should know that Florida has lost 2,770 people per million due to Covid-related illness while Hawaii is currently at 658 per million.

Of course if you're going to assume that all else is equal between the two, then what's the point?

[vnatale]

Read in my today's daily newspaper that the three person selectboard of my town voted unanimously on Monday to immediately lift the mask mandate that had been put in place on September 27th. This was due to several weeks of low number of cases in the town.

I'm reading in to this that your town has decided not to follow, or at least enforce locally, CDC guidelines that were recently issued for the upcoming holidays. Am I correct? Probably not as I think the CDC guidance only recommends, not mandates, being vaccinated and wearing masks indoors when gathering with people who are outside your household.

Observation: I went to the grocery store today. I expect that only 5-10% of the people, customers and staff, were wearing masks. Mask wearing has greatly slacked off in my area recently. I hope we do not see a big increase in illnesses for the upcoming "flu season".

My current thinking on mask wearing:
1. Masks are not perfect but do help; note that medical staff, especially in the OR, have been wearing them for a long time for some reason. My understanding of physics (airflow, particle size, etc.) indicates clean surgical grade masks, e.g. N-95s and maybe just regular surgical grade, have to do some good re. reducing pathogen spreading whether SARS-CoV 2 or influenza or bacteria.
2. It is important to understand why one does not want to wear a mask, is it political or medical based. If it because you just don't like being told what you have to do, it's probably politically based. Try to see a bigger picture.
3. Does love of self take precedence over love of neighbor? It seems that for most people wearing a mask is an inconvenience, or uncomfortable for long periods at worst. Is it really that hard to make another person "feel" more comfortable even if there is a minimal health benefit, e.g. perhaps that other person is immunocomprimised or have other medical issues that make them more vulnerable. Is it really that hard to help small businesses stay open (they do have to enforce government rules if they don't want to get shut down)?
4. Personally, I think mask mandates were not the optimal way to go; we should have built a case on the benefits so people would want to do what is best from a medical point of view but that is probably a 20-20 hindsight perspective. Not a lot was known in the beginning of 2020 about the new disease or how to mitigate it.
5. Most of the people I know, either first or second hand, who have had Covid-19 (the illness, not just a positive test) say this is definitely not something you want to get. My son-in-law's brother got it; he switched from being an avid antivaxer to being a strong "get vaccinated" and "do all you can to protect yourself" proponent after spending several days in the hospital - at least he did not have experience a ventilator.

You are quite correct above.

In today's paper the top headline story was this one:

https://www.recorder.com/Greenfield-may ... y-43363863.

Greenfield is the "seat" of our county.

By the way..... your five points were tremendous. Writing like that I have to honor by reading it twice so that I do not miss any of the numerous gems that it contained.

[vnatale]

Has anyone already brought this web site to our attention?

Vinny

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covi ... e-ranking/

What Next?
Bloomberg’s Covid Resilience Ranking provides a snapshot of how the pandemic is playing out in 53 major economies right now. By layering in metrics on reopening and the revival of global travel from mid-2021, we also give a window into how these economies’ fortunes may shift in the future as places exit the pandemic at different speeds.

It’s not a final verdict—it never could be, given the imperfections in virus and vaccine data and the fast pace of this crisis. Circumstance and pure luck also play a role, but are hard to quantify.

Beyond delta, new variants of concern are also a threat: scientists fear mutations that can overcome existing shots and drive a new phase of the pandemic.

Still, having endured more than a year and half of fighting Covid-19, governments and populations now have a better understanding of the pathogen and how to mitigate the damage it inflicts.

Experts say the next six months will be key, with risks high as the weather cools in the U.S. and Europe and schools resume.

As the data shift, the Ranking will change too—we’ll continue to update the picture every month, as it evolves.

[WiseOne]

But if you are going to compare Covid outcomes in Florida & Hawaii, you also should know that Florida has lost 2,770 people per million due to Covid-related illness while Hawaii is currently at 658 per million.

I really wish people would stop making comparisons like this. Scientifically this is utterly meaningless.

You can only compare two populations when you have taken great pains to ensure that they are equivalent (i.e. for this particular situation, at equivalent risk for COVID). This is typically done either by doing a linear regression analysis where you correct for various confounds, or you construct two groups matched for age, comorbidities etc. Even then this type of comparison is generally looked on with suspicion, because you can't correct for everything.

Just for starters, here's a MAJOR difference between Florida and Hawaii: the proportion of the population in different age groups. Hawaii is going to have a much younger population than Florida, which is the retirement destination of choice for much of the East Coast. Since there is a thousandfold difference in COVID death risk between young vs old people, do you not think that this might factor into the above statistics??

[WiseOne]

Oh and barrett, regarding community mask wearing:

The data are becoming pretty clear: there is probably a small benefit but not much. It's small enough that a small study can't detect it (eg the Danish study), whereas a large study (Bangladesh) showed a 10% reduction in COVID cases. This is consistent with prior WHO meta-analysis for flu prevention showing benefits in the 0-20% range (and 20% was when mask wearing was combined with other measures like distancing and handwashing).

Let me spell out what "10% benefit" means. It means that for every 10 people who are doing the mask wearing thing who would have gotten COVID without the mask wearing, 9 of them will get COVID despite their mask wearing.

I think of masks as sort of portable sneeze shields. So it does make sense that it will help a little, by protecting you against idiots who cough right in your face. But if you got COVID via prolonged close contact with someone, the mask can't possibly do anything. Sure, they will stop droplets that may carry viruses, but they can't stop virus particles in normal exhalation because they're much smaller than the mask's pores.

I wear masks when social decorum requires it, because it's a small price to pay to avoid making other people uncomfortable or annoyed. But I don't do it for health reasons. So barrett, if you are looking for a reason to drop the mask thing, I've just given it to you.

[Mountaineer]

Read in my today's daily newspaper that the three person selectboard of my town voted unanimously on Monday to immediately lift the mask mandate that had been put in place on September 27th. This was due to several weeks of low number of cases in the town.

I'm reading in to this that your town has decided not to follow, or at least enforce locally, CDC guidelines that were recently issued for the upcoming holidays. Am I correct? Probably not as I think the CDC guidance only recommends, not mandates, being vaccinated and wearing masks indoors when gathering with people who are outside your household.

Observation: I went to the grocery store today. I expect that only 5-10% of the people, customers and staff, were wearing masks. Mask wearing has greatly slacked off in my area recently. I hope we do not see a big increase in illnesses for the upcoming "flu season".

My current thinking on mask wearing:
1. Masks are not perfect but do help; note that medical staff, especially in the OR, have been wearing them for a long time for some reason. My understanding of physics (airflow, particle size, etc.) indicates clean surgical grade masks, e.g. N-95s and maybe just regular surgical grade, have to do some good re. reducing pathogen spreading whether SARS-CoV 2 or influenza or bacteria.
2. It is important to understand why one does not want to wear a mask, is it political or medical based. If it because you just don't like being told what you have to do, it's probably politically based. Try to see a bigger picture.
3. Does love of self take precedence over love of neighbor? It seems that for most people wearing a mask is an inconvenience, or uncomfortable for long periods at worst. Is it really that hard to make another person "feel" more comfortable even if there is a minimal health benefit, e.g. perhaps that other person is immunocomprimised or have other medical issues that make them more vulnerable. Is it really that hard to help small businesses stay open (they do have to enforce government rules if they don't want to get shut down)?
4. Personally, I think mask mandates were not the optimal way to go; we should have built a case on the benefits so people would want to do what is best from a medical point of view but that is probably a 20-20 hindsight perspective. Not a lot was known in the beginning of 2020 about the new disease or how to mitigate it.
5. Most of the people I know, either first or second hand, who have had Covid-19 (the illness, not just a positive test) say this is definitely not something you want to get. My son-in-law's brother got it; he switched from being an avid antivaxer to being a strong "get vaccinated" and "do all you can to protect yourself" proponent after spending several days in the hospital - at least he did not have experience a ventilator.

You are quite correct above.

In today's paper the top headline story was this one:

https://www.recorder.com/Greenfield-may ... y-43363863.

Greenfield is the "seat" of our county.

By the way..... your five points were tremendous. Writing like that I have to honor by reading it twice so that I do not miss any of the numerous gems that it contained.

Thanks for the kind words Vinny.

…Mountaineer

[flyingpylon]

Oh and barrett, regarding community mask wearing:

The data are becoming pretty clear: there is probably a small benefit but not much. It's small enough that a small study can't detect it (eg the Danish study), whereas a large study (Bangladesh) showed a 10% reduction in COVID cases. This is consistent with prior WHO meta-analysis for flu prevention showing benefits in the 0-20% range (and 20% was when mask wearing was combined with other measures like distancing and handwashing).

Let me spell out what "10% benefit" means. It means that for every 10 people who are doing the mask wearing thing who would have gotten COVID without the mask wearing, 9 of them will get COVID despite their mask wearing.

I think of masks as sort of portable sneeze shields. So it does make sense that it will help a little, by protecting you against idiots who cough right in your face. But if you got COVID via prolonged close contact with someone, the mask can't possibly do anything. Sure, they will stop droplets that may carry viruses, but they can't stop virus particles in normal exhalation because they're much smaller than the mask's pores.

I wear masks when social decorum requires it, because it's a small price to pay to avoid making other people uncomfortable or annoyed. But I don't do it for health reasons. So barrett, if you are looking for a reason to drop the mask thing, I've just given it to you.

But today CDC Director Rochelle Wallensky said that masks help reduce your risk of COVID-19 infection by more than 80%!! They also protect from colds and flu!

https://twitter.com/cdcdirector/status/ ... 25518?s=21

She wouldn’t just make that up… would she?

[pp4me]

I should amend my blanket statement above that I don't wear masks because I don't believe they work. That's not an entirely accurate statement of my thinking on the subject.

I believe they might work and maybe do in some situations. I've seen stories about laboratory tests that do show that they inhibit expelled droplets to some extent. Why wouldn't they? When I was in Hawaii they had a sign in front of all of the elevators showing somebody coughing and the amount of spray with no mask, one mask, and two masks. I assume they got that from somewhere (although they could have just been making it up).

The question is, however, what utility do they have in the real world? If I go to the store and there are 50 people inside wearing masks and not one of those 50 people has COVID then the masks aren't protecting anybody from anything are they? So with 50 people in a store what are the odds that one of them even has COVID, let alone that I would have enough contact with them to catch the disease? I can't think of any way to make that calculation but there have been 46 million cases in the U.S.A. out of 340 million people over the course of the entire pandemic so someone better with statistics can help me out but it seems pretty small to me.

If I encountered a symptomatic carrier of COVID who was actually coughing into his/her mask and expelling droplets like in that chart I would avoid them like the plague (no pun intended) but I don't recall ever encountering any such thing. Symptomatic people seem to have had the good sense to stay home.

So that leaves us with asymptomatic carriers to worry about. If you have COVID and don't know it because you are asymptomatic, does breathing normally through your nose with or without a mask result in enough viral load to make somebody else sick? Well, if you stay 6 feet away from them it reduces the risk according to CDC guidelines but when it comes to asymptomatic transmission I get the impression that nobody really has a clue.

At the beginning of the pandemic I wore a mask and followed the hand-washing guidelines but that lasted only about two weeks. Since then, I've only worn a mask when mandated and I haven't washed my hands after going to the store even one time.

The bottom line is that I can't really give a valid scientific/statistical explanation for why I don't wear a mask. There just seems to be an internal/sub-conscious risk assessment mechanism in place that tells me I don't need to. I also wouldn't wear a seat belt if it wasn't mandated. So crucify me.

[jalanlong]

Oh and barrett, regarding community mask wearing:

The data are becoming pretty clear: there is probably a small benefit but not much. It's small enough that a small study can't detect it (eg the Danish study), whereas a large study (Bangladesh) showed a 10% reduction in COVID cases. This is consistent with prior WHO meta-analysis for flu prevention showing benefits in the 0-20% range (and 20% was when mask wearing was combined with other measures like distancing and handwashing).

Let me spell out what "10% benefit" means. It means that for every 10 people who are doing the mask wearing thing who would have gotten COVID without the mask wearing, 9 of them will get COVID despite their mask wearing.

I think of masks as sort of portable sneeze shields. So it does make sense that it will help a little, by protecting you against idiots who cough right in your face. But if you got COVID via prolonged close contact with someone, the mask can't possibly do anything. Sure, they will stop droplets that may carry viruses, but they can't stop virus particles in normal exhalation because they're much smaller than the mask's pores.

I wear masks when social decorum requires it, because it's a small price to pay to avoid making other people uncomfortable or annoyed. But I don't do it for health reasons. So barrett, if you are looking for a reason to drop the mask thing, I've just given it to you.

But today CDC Director Rochelle Wallensky said that masks help reduce your risk of COVID-19 infection by more than 80%!! They also protect from colds and flu!

https://twitter.com/cdcdirector/status/ ... 25518?s=21

She wouldn’t just make that up… would she?

Well in March she said that vaccinated people cannot catch or spread the virus. She said it on MSNBC as well.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-dir ... -19-2021-3

[Cortopassi]

I really wonder what the major driver has been for me and my family. We have gotten I think one cold/cough in the past 2 years between the four of us, whereas my older daughter could have been guaranteed to get one a month perpetually.

Is it the masking? Is it the religious hand sanitizing in the car after every trip to the store? The using a paper towel to open the work bathroom door vs. my bare hand? A combo? There isn't anything else than those I can think of.

In any event, I have otherwise been around the same number of people, inside, at work, basically the entire time. And outside, volunteering and such, since at least this past spring. So something is helping.

[WiseOne]

Oh and barrett, regarding community mask wearing:

The data are becoming pretty clear: there is probably a small benefit but not much. It's small enough that a small study can't detect it (eg the Danish study), whereas a large study (Bangladesh) showed a 10% reduction in COVID cases. This is consistent with prior WHO meta-analysis for flu prevention showing benefits in the 0-20% range (and 20% was when mask wearing was combined with other measures like distancing and handwashing).

Let me spell out what "10% benefit" means. It means that for every 10 people who are doing the mask wearing thing who would have gotten COVID without the mask wearing, 9 of them will get COVID despite their mask wearing.

I think of masks as sort of portable sneeze shields. So it does make sense that it will help a little, by protecting you against idiots who cough right in your face. But if you got COVID via prolonged close contact with someone, the mask can't possibly do anything. Sure, they will stop droplets that may carry viruses, but they can't stop virus particles in normal exhalation because they're much smaller than the mask's pores.

I wear masks when social decorum requires it, because it's a small price to pay to avoid making other people uncomfortable or annoyed. But I don't do it for health reasons. So barrett, if you are looking for a reason to drop the mask thing, I've just given it to you.

But today CDC Director Rochelle Wallensky said that masks help reduce your risk of COVID-19 infection by more than 80%!! They also protect from colds and flu!

https://twitter.com/cdcdirector/status/ ... 25518?s=21

She wouldn’t just make that up… would she?

Well in March she said that vaccinated people cannot catch or spread the virus. She said it on MSNBC as well.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-dir ... -19-2021-3

Yeah, she's making it up. There are no scientific studies to back up that claim (i.e. studies of community mask wearing vs COVID rates). But then, why are you surprised - she may originally have been trained as a scientist, but she's now better described as a hysterical neurotic who is also (unfortunately) a powerful political figure.

[jalanlong]

The question is, however, what utility do they have in the real world? If I go to the store and there are 50 people inside wearing masks and not one of those 50 people has COVID then the masks aren't protecting anybody from anything are they? So with 50 people in a store what are the odds that one of them even has COVID, let alone that I would have enough contact with them to catch the disease?

How ridiculous does that make the rules to wear a mask into a restaurant and then take it off when you get to your table? What on earth are the percentage chances that in the 10-30 feet I have to walk to my table from the front door that I will pass someone closely and that someone will have the virus and cough/sneeze droplets on me? If that is the level of risk I am unwilling to take then I should obviously just stay home right? But then at home I need not to climb on a ladder, swim in the pool or eat bone-in chicken. Need to stay safe.

[murphy_p_t]

The mask is most effective at demonstrating the submission of the wearer to whatever dictates have been imposed. This is demonstrated most clearly by the diners who don the garment of submission at the door, and remove it as soon as they are seated.

[barrett]

But if you are going to compare Covid outcomes in Florida & Hawaii, you also should know that Florida has lost 2,770 people per million due to Covid-related illness while Hawaii is currently at 658 per million.

I really wish people would stop making comparisons like this. Scientifically this is utterly meaningless.

You can only compare two populations when you have taken great pains to ensure that they are equivalent (i.e. for this particular situation, at equivalent risk for COVID). This is typically done either by doing a linear regression analysis where you correct for various confounds, or you construct two groups matched for age, comorbidities etc. Even then this type of comparison is generally looked on with suspicion, because you can't correct for everything.

Just for starters, here's a MAJOR difference between Florida and Hawaii: the proportion of the population in different age groups. Hawaii is going to have a much younger population than Florida, which is the retirement destination of choice for much of the East Coast. Since there is a thousandfold difference in COVID death risk between young vs old people, do you not think that this might factor into the above statistics??

I am aware that the two populations are not identical and that age is probably the single greatest factor in determining COVID outcomes. But the two populations are not as different as one might think. I am looking here:

https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/ha ... statistics

...and here:

https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/fl ... statistics

So Hawaii's population has a median age of 36.2 and for Florida it's 38.7. But the number we should be weighting more heavily is the percentage of "seniors". For the age group 65 and older, Hawaii checks in at 13.3% whereas for Florida it's 17.6%. Florida has roughly 35% more "seniors" as a % of population, so that is clearly one factor in Florida's death rate being 4X higher. Another is likely population density (223 per square mile in HI vs. 397 per square mile in FL). And so on. There probably dozens of factors that determine COVID outcomes from one area to another.

I just thought that pp4me's original post was a bit flimsy in that it was taking a snapshot of masking and current cases per capita and drawing a conclusion about masking efficacy while not mentioning the most important number, which I think we can all agree is death rate.

[Mountaineer]

The mask is most effective at demonstrating the submission of the wearer to whatever dictates have been imposed. This is demonstrated most clearly by the diners who don the garment of submission at the door, and remove it as soon as they are seated.

No, this is demonstrated most clearly by the drivers who don the garment of submission while in their cars alone. C'mon man, both are illogical, but the car thing is waaaay crazier.

Come on man ........... uh, ...... uh, ....... uh, ..... uh, ..... uh, ...... the teleprompter quit, where was I?

[murphy_p_t]

You are absolutely right, MangoMan.

None of this insanity is about a Chinese disease. The disease is the pretext. Have a look at what RFK Jr is saying. He brings up psychological experimentation where the subject imagines they are instructed to torture someone, based on the instructions of a doctor. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defe ... stitution/

[barrett]

The mask is most effective at demonstrating the submission of the wearer to whatever dictates have been imposed. This is demonstrated most clearly by the diners who don the garment of submission at the door, and remove it as soon as they are seated.

No, this is demonstrated most clearly by the drivers who don the garment of submission while in their cars alone. C'mon man, both are illogical, but the car thing is waaaay crazier.

Wife and I were in Brooklyn yesterday and were struck by how many masked drivers we saw. That's something that, thankfully, we rarely see here in CT. Then my wife suggested that maybe a significant number of those masked drivers were Uber operators and that they may be required by "company" rules to wear them. Anyone know if this is the case?

I actually have a young friend from the gym (employee there) who finally got vaccinated a while back but continues to wear a mask (making it difficult to converse with him). He told me that he's now just more comfortable not having people see his face. I keep having to ask him to take his mask off when there is something he is saying that I can't catch. I can't imagine how difficult it must be for school students to immediately understand what their teachers are saying. Then again, maybe their ears are better than mine!

[murphy_p_t]

Yes, the face mask of submission is a genderless burka.

The solo driver dutifully donning his burka shows to the world he is a true believer in the sanitary cult.

I find it very disappointing that people "voluntarily" self-denigrate.

[dualstow]

This is the season of post-nasal drip and I find it convenient that I’m required to wear a mask at the farmer’s market. But, I’m also grateful that I can eat at restaurants again when I feel like it.

[murphy_p_t]

Yes, I realize that so many people comply with this extortion, seeking their immediate gratification, imagining their lives will be permitted to return to normal if they submit to one more degrading humiliation.

Slippery slope has taken on a whole new meaning since March 2020 for the Western world.

"2 weeks to flatten the curve"

[murphy_p_t]

It seems to me that every act of degrading submission only encourages the regime to push further demands of extortion.

Think about how the high school bully acted.

Q. What stops the high school bully.
A. A bloody nose.

I have never heard of the school bully stopping because the weak kids comply with the extortion by handing over their lunch money.

[murphy_p_t]

Now it is so bad, the extortion, that people are submitting to violations of their bodily integrity by either getting raped in their nose or raped in their shoulder. (Test or experimental injection)

It's no different than the young starlet sitting on Harvey Weinstein's couch... The extortion demand of submission.

Am I correct that covid-19 has never been isolated?

[murphy_p_t]

Myself, I refuse to enable this regime.

[dualstow]

…and even now (at least here) they are still making you wear a mask while you walk to your table, but not after you are seated. Does that make any sense to you?

None