flyingpylon wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:08 pm
I realize that I'm probably the only one that cares, but after being moved from May to August, then reduced to 50% fans, then 25% fans, it was announced today that the Indy 500 will be run with NO fans at all. Major bummer.
Rumor has it that they’re next going to announce the removal of all cars from the Indy 500 as well. Won’t be quite the same.
vnatale wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:11 pmCapture.JPG
You really think that out of all the countries in the world (including third-world countries), the U.S. has done the worst job of slowing the virus’s spread (“hardest-hit”)?
Could the stats possibly have something to do with the fact that the U.S. is doing far more testing than most other countries?
vnatale wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:11 pmCapture.JPG
You really think that out of all the countries in the world (including third-world countries), the U.S. has done the worst job of slowing the virus’s spread (“hardest-hit”)?
Could the stats possibly have something to do with the fact that the U.S. is doing far more testing than most other countries?
Partly, but it also has to do with counting everyone who dies for any reason who tests positive as a covid-19 death.
vnatale wrote: ↑Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:11 pmCapture.JPG
You really think that out of all the countries in the world (including third-world countries), the U.S. has done the worst job of slowing the virus’s spread (“hardest-hit”)?
Could the stats possibly have something to do with the fact that the U.S. is doing far more testing than most other countries?
Partly, but it also has to do with counting everyone who dies for any reason who tests positive as a covid-19 death.
I have not heard Trump mention that? He brought out all the charts and tried to make a case about how we are doing so well, but if he could have coherently said something about well you know if you died in a car accident and had Covid, you are listed as dying of Covid in some places, how do you think that affects things?
Check out these youtube videos by Ivor Cummins, a biomedical engineer in Ireland who has done some deep diving into the data. He's made a pretty convincing case that lockdowns & masks accomplish very little. His most interesting conclusion: the best predictor of a nation's COVID mortality is how many people died from flu-like illnesses in 2019, BEFORE Covid came along. It turns out that 2019 was a low-mortality flu year. Low mortality flu years are inevitably followed by high mortality years, just because the pool of susceptible victims has increased. So yes, there are more flu-like syndrome deaths this year than last year because of COVID, but it turns out that if you compare to the last 25 years, this year doesn't even rank in the top 5. In other words, it's not clear that there is ANY notable excess mortality this year. The main effect of COVID is to compress cases into a relatively short period of time - a significant effect to be sure, and a good reason for short-lived lockdowns aimed at "flattening the curve."
The videos are long but I promise they're worth it. This is a very refreshing take. Of course I may be a bit biased since his conclusions fit well with my own, but I share his penchant for letting the data - not the political winds - do the talking.
I will try to watch those videos, but it still begs the question since the majority of people in Trump's admin and I assume most right leaning individuals would have this view, why is none of this concrete information making its way out to the public from the admin, in a clear fashion?
You could ask that very same question about many, many topics. In this case, we have a prevailing mythology promoted by a collection of academic and government officials that is now so set in stone that it's no longer open to question. Facts are then modified or selected to fit the mythology. It's just how things work. Check out all the news articles that say "State XYZ is experiencing a coronavirus surge because of their early lifting of the lockdown." How the heck does the news reporter know that?? Of course he doesn't, but his job is to keep promoting the prevailing mythology.
In order to go against it, you have to be a certain kind of person who is relatively immune from group-think. Sort of like the kind who would invest in the PP, or vote for Trump, or choose not to eat grains. (Not saying that ALL such people vote for Trump, just that immunity from group-think is a pre-requisite for being a Trump voter).
WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:09 pm
In order to go against it, you have to be a certain kind of person who is relatively immune from group-think. ).
So if Trump can't swing it, seems like it isn't going to change. Too bad. Seriously.
WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:09 pmimmunity from group-think is a pre-requisite for being a Trump voter
The rest of your post is brilliant, but I don't think it's possible to be elected president without capturing a significant percentage of the groupthink vote.
Edit: thinking more about your point about narratives: we certainly see the same thing in the financial press, ALL the time. "Markets are up because of XYZ!" or "The market didn't like ABC". Completely bogus. It's making up a story that fits the facts.
WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:09 pmimmunity from group-think is a pre-requisite for being a Trump voter
The rest of your post is brilliant, but I don't think it's possible to be elected president without capturing a significant percentage of the groupthink vote.
Edit: thinking more about your point about narratives: we certainly see the same thing in the financial press, ALL the time. "Markets are up because of XYZ!" or "The market didn't like ABC". Completely bogus. It's making up a story that fits the facts.
Your first point: okay point taken. There is a slice of the electorate who will vote red no matter what. He's got that vote. Other than that, I don't see all that much in the way of groupthink that is running in Trump's favor.
Your second point: YES. It's so intrinsic to everything you almost don't notice it. And the medical literature works the same way: most of it's groupthink as well. Just try writing a paper or grant application that goes against the prevailing view. No matter how carefully you make your case, you won't get anywhere. I truly admire the brave souls who can see past the groupthink to the real story, and disseminate the info clearly. Harry Browne was certainly among them. Based on those two videos, this guy Ivor Cummins is another. I really enjoyed them - seriously guys, highly recommended.
But CV was so quick to happen, cholesterol theory has been entrenched for decades. CV knowledge is changing daily. I don’t see why another viewpoint couldn’t take hold, esp. after Aug and Sept when we see the shit show of online learning pushing a lot of people into the this can’t go on group.
But CV was so quick to happen, cholesterol theory has been entrenched for decades. CV knowledge is changing daily. I don’t see why another viewpoint couldn’t take hold, esp. after Aug and Sept when we see the shit show of online learning pushing a lot of people into the this can’t go on group.
i would love to believe that but after 6 months I just don't have confidence that the "group" is going to be letting this go anytime soon. Now that school is about to start up again, I have started to see headlines in my news feed each day about kids carrying the virus at the same strength as adults and preschools having Covid outbreaks etc. The media is working that angle and I think it will be effective enough to keep schools shut down in most populated areas.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:26 pm
Our high school district just flipped to remote start. Sigh....
I am of the opinion most children will not see the inside of a classroom until after Christmas break at the earliest. We were told in March it was just a week off. Then it was extended until mid April. Then the rest of the school year and we will start again in August. Now its September. Why on earth would anyone believe anything they say now?
I still contend the only way to stop this is if every person who is against remote learning (and that was the majority in my district) goes up to the district office or school, withdraws their child and says they are homeschooling. If the district enrollment suddenly dropped by 50-60% overnight, this would all be over.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:26 pm
Our high school district just flipped to remote start. Sigh....
I am of the opinion most children will not see the inside of a classroom until after Christmas break at the earliest. We were told in March it was just a week off. Then it was extended until mid April. Then the rest of the school year and we will start again in August. Now its September. Why on earth would anyone believe anything they say now?
I still contend the only way to stop this is if every person who is against remote learning (and that was the majority in my district) goes up to the district office or school, withdraws their child and says they are homeschooling. If the district enrollment suddenly dropped by 50-60% overnight, this would all be over.
If you can withdraw your child AND your real estate tax money, I’d believe that.
