Coronavirus General Discussion

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14228
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:14 am

At least they eventually knew there would be no more bombs.

Well, I heard last night that six feet may not be enough distance. The really small droplets that come with breathing have passed to some choir singers who were six feet apart.

I went to a bodega yesterday and although the line was well spaced, there were people crowded all around the front door and the cashier area waiting on sandwich orders. I probably should have just left.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14228
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:35 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:38 pm
I don’t know if I specifically asked this before, but since the entire world deaths have passed 100k I figured I’d ask.

I have these questions, from a very much slanting toward what the hell are we doing?

—world loses 150k people a day normally. If we are conservative and say this has been going on for 60 days, is that adding 1666 deaths a day to that total?
—if adding, that is only a 1% increase. Have we gone overboard?
—...
Just to add to barrett's answer, there's a WSJ piece entitled,
Why Doesn’t Flu Tank Economy Like Covid-19?
Comparisons between two diseases--based on infections and deaths--missed range of differences
Following data from tallies, it says "the numbers don't tell the whole story."
For starters, the flu tallies are estimates of total flu burden, while the Covid-19 figures are confirmed cases only. Eventually, the CDC will estimate the total Covid-19 burden, but for now, the numbers are not an apples-to-apples comparison.
In addition, Covid-19 differs from the flu in how quickly it spreads, the length and severity of the illness, and the unusual demands a contagion with no cure places on medical staff and facilities.

Instead of gentle waves of cases cascading across the country over a span of six months, like the flu, a tidal wave of Covid-19 cases has swept over a handful of cities in half the time.
There's more, but the gist is that there are other variables behind and in addition to mere death counts.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-doesnt ... 1586511000
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by ochotona » Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:56 am

The difference between flu and Corona is in behavior. We "volunteer" for the flu (by not bothering to wash up, not taking the vacccination). We volunteer others by going to work while sick.

Who wants to volunteer for Corona? Mmmmm... not me. You first... please! Be my guest!

If you're pushing or at old age, and you have co-morbidities, really no.

It's going to come down to who can afford to shelter, because they can work remotely or they can afford to essentially retire until a vaccine is out. The govt is going to release people to work, and people will want to to return to work because otherwise they will be destitute. But it's not going to really be as safe as it was. A number of people will sicken and die. It'll be like your seatbelts and airbags magically vanish from your car, and your disk anti-lock brakes just reverted to drums on all four wheels, with air in the brake lines, and your tires are bald, your struts are shot, and there's a little gas leak going on. And no child seats. 1950s style.

Will you make it home OK from work in that kind of car? Most probably yes. Statistically, will there be excess mortality arising from that kind of car is a population of 330,000 people? Absolutely.

I don't see how any adults with school aged children at home will be able to stay well. How do you manage that when you have 500-1000 asymptomatic critters running around touching each other all day long?
barrett
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1982
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:54 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by barrett » Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:08 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:56 am
I don't see how any adults with school aged children at home will be able to stay well. How do you manage that when you have 500-1000 asymptomatic critters running around touching each other all day long?
Except that most parents with school aged kids are actually young enough to not be high risk themselves... at least in terms of age. It's grandma and grandpa that are more at risk. One would hope that after a longer period back at school, students and teachers would already have this virus behind them (either through exposure or just not being susceptible for some reason). How long that will be is another question.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Cortopassi » Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:16 am

The number that makes it more real is barrett noting it is killing about 25% more people per day in the US right now.

And the comment on a tidal wave vs. gentle waves.

Dammit.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:03 pm

Coronavirus shutdowns pose grave economic risk, raising difficult questions

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 191785.php#
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:02 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:03 pm
Coronavirus shutdowns pose grave economic risk, raising difficult questions

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 191785.php#
“Breaking news: Doctors and economists discover that when people are trapped at home, very little shit gets done.”
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:29 pm

One mile or so from my house. I have NO interest in participating!!!!

Vinny



Singing through the dark times

https://www.recorder.com/Montague-singing-33751379
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:07 pm

During this have any of you purchased food online?

For the first time, tonight, I went to Amazon, Walmart, Chewy Pets to search on some of the items I always buy.

A lot of out stock. Some things cost similar or even less than what I normally buy on sale at Stop & Shop. Some things twice to four times as expensive!

My next steps are to take an inventory of all the food I have for me and the cats. Nextresearch availability and prices and then, finally, place some HUGE orders!

This Tuesday will be the four week anniversary of when I last bought outside food into my house. Tonight's meal was totally delicious. Usually I have two bowls of it a night but I had to eat three due to its taste. The two ingredients in it that I will soon run out of are cauliflower and brussels sprouts.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by I Shrugged » Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:36 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:02 pm
vnatale wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:03 pm
Coronavirus shutdowns pose grave economic risk, raising difficult questions

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/busine ... 191785.php#
“Breaking news: Doctors and economists discover that when people are trapped at home, very little shit gets done.”
I hope we all like eating at McDonalds and buying from Amazon. Because it feels like that is all that is going to be left when the dust settles.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:36 pm

I tried to buy some bulk stuff (barley and oats), but those, and everything else, were/are sold out.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:52 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:36 pm
I tried to buy some bulk stuff (barley and oats), but those, and everything else, were/are sold out.
This is strictly a result of everyone "stocking up"? All this sold out food is certainly not getting consumed currently? Plus, the restaurants are not buying food, though they tend to buy from different sources, like Sysco.

The six months before any of this started I was beginning to question myself as I just kept buying huge amounts of canned tomatoes and jars of peanut butter "on sale". Essentially buying all that was available on the shelves each time I saw them on sale. As I was bringing them down to my basement and seeing the bags and bags of them that I already had of them I was starting to think that, maybe, this was getting excessive even for me. But, in retrospect, it's bought me a lot of time on those two items and other items (like beans).

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
barrett
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1982
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:54 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by barrett » Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:41 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:16 am
Hey guys, check out Ray Dalio's latest virtual interview. It's a pretty meaty conversation. The gist of it? "We're headed into a Great Depression" he says.

https://youtu.be/yrxYhv2O3wU
Thanks for posting that, Smithers. Dalio talks a little bit about asset diversification on that video from about 25:00 to 28:30.
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:26 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:52 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:36 pm
I tried to buy some bulk stuff (barley and oats), but those, and everything else, were/are sold out.
This is strictly a result of everyone "stocking up"? All this sold out food is certainly not getting consumed currently? Plus, the restaurants are not buying food, though they tend to buy from different sources, like Sysco.
Yeah, just as a lot of TP demand suddenly shifted from commercial to consumer, I think a lot of food demand also shifted from commercial to consumer. Fewer people eating at schools, workplaces, and restaurants, and more people eating at home. The supply chains weren’t set up to immediately accommodate that kind of massive shift in demand.
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4392
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Xan » Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:11 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:26 pm
vnatale wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:52 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:36 pm
I tried to buy some bulk stuff (barley and oats), but those, and everything else, were/are sold out.
This is strictly a result of everyone "stocking up"? All this sold out food is certainly not getting consumed currently? Plus, the restaurants are not buying food, though they tend to buy from different sources, like Sysco.
Yeah, just as a lot of TP demand suddenly shifted from commercial to consumer, I think a lot of food demand also shifted from commercial to consumer. Fewer people eating at schools, workplaces, and restaurants, and more people eating at home. The supply chains weren’t set up to immediately accommodate that kind of massive shift in demand.
Saw an interesting article somewhere about dairies that are equipped to only supply milk in 8oz containers (for schools) and shredded cheese in 20lb bags (for restaurants). People's houses need much bigger milks and much smaller cheeses!
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:27 pm

Capture.JPG
Capture.JPG (21.54 KiB) Viewed 14254 times
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:46 pm

South Korea reports recovered coronavirus patients testing positive again

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... PONeUMzlks
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3502
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:53 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:46 pm
South Korea reports recovered coronavirus patients testing positive again

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... PONeUMzlks
Huh.

So much for building herd immunity.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:55 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:53 pm
vnatale wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:46 pm
South Korea reports recovered coronavirus patients testing positive again

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... PONeUMzlks
Huh.

So much for building herd immunity.
IF true, NOT good news!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:06 am

Too Big to Fail, COVID-19 Edition: How Private Equity Is Winning the Coronavirus Crisis

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04 ... m_brand=vf
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14228
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:35 am

I was able to order online from a vendor at my farmers market that never used to have online ordering. So great to be able to go and pick up a one-time custom order (as opposed to a huge CSA share). Not cheap, though.
Xan wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:11 pm
Saw an interesting article somewhere about dairies that are equipped to only supply milk in 8oz containers (for schools) and shredded cheese in 20lb bags (for restaurants). People's houses need much bigger milks and much smaller cheeses!
There’s a NYT article, Food Waste of the Pandemic, which is too depressing to even quote, for the most part. Lots of buried onions (“People don’t make onion rings at home”) and purposely spilled milk.

Regarding your note above, Xan:
At many dairy processors, for example, the machinery is designed to package shredded cheese in large bags for restaurants or place milk in small cartons for schools, rather than arrange the products in retail-friendly containers.

To repurpose those plants to put cheese in the 8 oz. bags that sell in grocery stores or bottle milk in gallon jugs would require millions of dollars in investment. For now, some processors have concluded that spending the money isn’t worth it.
EDIT: Here’s the link if anyone feels like crying: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/busi ... -food.html
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14228
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:21 am

Amid Coronavirus Pandemic, China Bans Domestic Trade of Wild Animals, but Offers Tax Breaks for Exports
China disapproves of ‘recklessly eating wild animals’ as its Finance Ministry offers incentives to ship them abroad
::) Oh, CCP. I'll take Biden any day of the week. No more complaining from me ::)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/amid-coron ... 1586683800

EDIT: { fixed broken link }
Last edited by dualstow on Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:17 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:36 pm
I hope we all like eating at McDonalds and buying from Amazon. Because it feels like that is all that is going to be left when the dust settles.
And it gets worse. After this pandemic is over, who in their right mind would be willing to take the risk of opening or investing in a “non-essential” business if that business can be suddenly strangled to death at the government’s whim when the next big pandemic comes along?

This months-long lockdown overreaction may damage business investment for many, many years, making the economic recovery much slower and more painful than it would have been had the lockdown been very brief.
User avatar
shekels
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 520
Joined: Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:01 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by shekels » Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:40 pm

Covid death rates per one Million population. as of April 8, 2020

39.3923648256 Deaths Per One Million People in U.S.


United States Confirmed deaths (absolute) 12,888
Population (in millions) 327.17
Deaths per million 39.39


https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... habitants/
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:03 pm

shekels wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:40 pm
Covid death rates per one Million population. as of April 8, 2020

39.3923648256 Deaths Per One Million People in U.S.


United States Confirmed deaths (absolute) 12,888
Population (in millions) 327.17
Deaths per million 39.39


https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... habitants/
United States has 4% of the world's population. It has 32% of the world's cases or deaths (not sure which).

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Post Reply