Coronavirus General Discussion

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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:29 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:53 pm
"1920: Alcohol is prohibited

2020: Liquor stores are an essential business during a national health crisis"
That's funny, here they're "closed until further notice." I went for a stroll today; walking by a liquor store, I saw a guy stand there and look at that sign for maybe 15 seconds. Poor fella just wants to relax into a nice black out.
All of humanity’s problems with coronavirus stem from a man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.
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vnatale
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:44 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:29 pm
vnatale wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:53 pm
"1920: Alcohol is prohibited

2020: Liquor stores are an essential business during a national health crisis"
That's funny, here they're "closed until further notice." I went for a stroll today; walking by a liquor store, I saw a guy stand there and look at that sign for maybe 15 seconds. Poor fella just wants to relax into a nice black out.
As I posted a few days ago (with attendant newspaper article)....here they are open and their business is booming.

Vinny
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:00 pm

I'm extremely fortunate in that I stocked up on tons of booze a couple weeks before everything got shut down. I think it's inhumane to expect people to go through this madness without being at least a little tipsy. People are home all day with their children, for god's sake! People can only be pushed so far when they're sober.
All of humanity’s problems with coronavirus stem from a man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.
- Blasé Kriegsspiel
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ochotona
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:41 pm

Mountaineer wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:05 am
So what is we do with all the Covid graphs and info? Ditto the Trump bashing during the middle of a crisis? Any particular specific actions other than feeding gasoline on our internal fires that try to burn up our realization that it is not we who are in control?
The takeaway for me on a concrete, personal level is that if any politician, at any level, of any party, says it's say to go out in the near future and resume normal life in the USA they are out-and-out lying. They are lying to save their career, reputation, power, whatever it is that these malignant narcissists who run our world crave (and there are many, not only Trump). Save yourself, save your family, save your neighbors, stay home. Dig into your beautiful HBPP's if you need to, but stay home until there are widely deployed therapies, a vaccine visibly on the way, and enough doctors, nurses, beds, ventilators, and supplies to care for you if you do get sick. Dear God, it's not about Trump, that's his obsession... it's always about him. And his followers think it's always about him. It's not. He's almost irrelevant.

He had abdicated government. We have to take care of ourselves. This is the reality in America today. The most trusted people are your State and County health departments on the 5:00 PM news every night. The people you know and trust and who are taking on accountability, though the POTUS said he is not accountable. Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe we should be a less centralized country.

I don't buy this "who could have known crap". I wrote an email to my family in Seattle dated 1/22/2020 saying, "Um, let's wait until we get more clarity on this virus in China before I come visit you". And whom am I? I'm Nobody. On 2/1/2020 in my diary I recorded that I was making portfolio changes because of the virus. And I sold most of my stocks in February (see VP threads). And I started disinfecting the public lab computers I use at Lone Star College back in February. People thought I was nuts. No longer. College is closed, of course.

It's a terrible indictment when a Nobody like me takes visible, concrete actions faster than the POTUS.
Last edited by ochotona on Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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vnatale
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:11 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:41 pm
Mountaineer wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:05 am
So what is we do with all the Covid graphs and info? Ditto the Trump bashing during the middle of a crisis? Any particular specific actions other than feeding gasoline on our internal fires that try to burn up our realization that it is not we who are in control?
The takeaway for me on a concrete, personal level is that if any politician, at any level, of any party, says it's say to go out in the near future and resume normal life in the USA they are out-and-out lying. They are lying to save their career, reputation, power, whatever it is that these malignant narcissists who run our world crave (and there are many, not only Trump). Save yourself, save your family, save your neighbors, stay home. Dig into your beautiful HBPP's if you need to, but stay home until there are widely deployed therapies, a vaccine visibly on the way, and enough doctors, nurses, beds, ventilators, and supplies to care for you if you do get sick. Dear God, it's not about Trump, that's his obsession... it's always about him. And his followers think it's always about him. It's not. He's almost irrelevant.

He had abdicated government. We have to take care of ourselves. This is the reality in America today. The most trusted people are your State and County health departments on the 5:00 PM news every night. The people you know and trust and who are taking on accountability, though the POTUS said he is not accountable. Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe we should be a less centralized country.

I don't buy this "who could have known crap". I wrote an email to my family in Seattle dated 1/22/2020 saying, "Um, let's wait until we get more clarity on this virus in China before I come visit you". And whom am I? I'm Nobody. On 2/1/2020 in my diary I recorded that I was making portfolio changes because of the virus. And I sold most of my stocks in February (see VP threads). And I started disinfecting the public lab computers I use at Lone Star College back in February. People thought I was nuts. No longer.

It's a terrible indictment when a Nobody like me takes visible, concrete actions faster than the POTUS.
WELL said!!! Thank you!

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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sophie
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by sophie » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:05 pm

Xan wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:03 am
vnatale wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:55 pm
Capture.JPG
Is there an equivalent chart looking at deaths or hospitalizations? Total cases is more of a chart of how much testing is being done.
That is exactly the problem - it's very hard to compare across countries, or even states with different testing policies. We're finding out now the extent of the un-tested, asymptomatic carrier problem:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ve-got-it/
Such undocumented cases are still contagious and the study found them to be the source of most of the virus’s spread in China before the restrictions came in. Even though these people were only 55 per cent as contagious as people with symptoms, the study found that they were the source of 79 per cent of further infections, due to there being more of them, and the higher likelihood that they were out and about.
So given that - would you argue that the lockdown measures are going to be proven to be next to useless for controlling viral spread? That may be, but, would people have simply accepted the message of "you're going to get the virus no matter what, so just keep working and don't worry about it until you get sick"? Kinda doubt it. There would have been social upheaval and economic harm, as well as a raft of conspiracy theories, either way.
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by pugchief » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:22 pm

sophie wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:05 pm
Xan wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:03 am
vnatale wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:55 pm
Capture.JPG
Is there an equivalent chart looking at deaths or hospitalizations? Total cases is more of a chart of how much testing is being done.
That is exactly the problem - it's very hard to compare across countries, or even states with different testing policies. We're finding out now the extent of the un-tested, asymptomatic carrier problem:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ve-got-it/
Such undocumented cases are still contagious and the study found them to be the source of most of the virus’s spread in China before the restrictions came in. Even though these people were only 55 per cent as contagious as people with symptoms, the study found that they were the source of 79 per cent of further infections, due to there being more of them, and the higher likelihood that they were out and about.
So given that - would you argue that the lockdown measures are going to be proven to be next to useless for controlling viral spread? That may be, but, would people have simply accepted the message of "you're going to get the virus no matter what, so just keep working and don't worry about it until you get sick"? Kinda doubt it. There would have been social upheaval and economic harm, as well as a raft of conspiracy theories, either way.
Sophie, given that, and what information you have as an MD in ground zero of the US*, when do you think we will realistically end the quarantine?

*Maybe it's not such a great idea to pack so many people into such a small area?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Maddy » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:30 pm

Denninger makes a persuasive case for the proposition that the mandated social distancing sought to be achieved by a nearly complete shut-down of the economy has done very little to alter the R0 of this virus. He concludes, based upon the CDC's own statistics and several decades worth of information gleaned from our experience with polio, that the most significant source of transmission, at this point, is health care workers who, though not necessarily infected themselves, are serving as extremely efficient vectors in the community. He asserts that no other conclusion can be reconciled with the math, raising the question why the focus of attention continues to be on measures that are not only largely unavailing but that are virtually certain to devastate the economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksME4oS ... e=emb_logo
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by technovelist » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:41 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:41 pm
Mountaineer wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:05 am
So what is we do with all the Covid graphs and info? Ditto the Trump bashing during the middle of a crisis? Any particular specific actions other than feeding gasoline on our internal fires that try to burn up our realization that it is not we who are in control?
The takeaway for me on a concrete, personal level is that if any politician, at any level, of any party, says it's say to go out in the near future and resume normal life in the USA they are out-and-out lying. They are lying to save their career, reputation, power, whatever it is that these malignant narcissists who run our world crave (and there are many, not only Trump). Save yourself, save your family, save your neighbors, stay home. Dig into your beautiful HBPP's if you need to, but stay home until there are widely deployed therapies, a vaccine visibly on the way, and enough doctors, nurses, beds, ventilators, and supplies to care for you if you do get sick. Dear God, it's not about Trump, that's his obsession... it's always about him. And his followers think it's always about him. It's not. He's almost irrelevant.

He had abdicated government. We have to take care of ourselves. This is the reality in America today. The most trusted people are your State and County health departments on the 5:00 PM news every night. The people you know and trust and who are taking on accountability, though the POTUS said he is not accountable. Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe we should be a less centralized country.

I don't buy this "who could have known crap". I wrote an email to my family in Seattle dated 1/22/2020 saying, "Um, let's wait until we get more clarity on this virus in China before I come visit you". And whom am I? I'm Nobody. On 2/1/2020 in my diary I recorded that I was making portfolio changes because of the virus. And I sold most of my stocks in February (see VP threads). And I started disinfecting the public lab computers I use at Lone Star College back in February. People thought I was nuts. No longer. College is closed, of course.

It's a terrible indictment when a Nobody like me takes visible, concrete actions faster than the POTUS.
Here's a partial list of actions Trump has taken to fight the pandemic: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wash ... er-economy
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by sophie » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:45 pm

I think I said May 31 in the "prediction" thread, but it depends....NYC is still scoring 3 to 4 thousand *confirmed* new cases a day. They were trending down but then increased again in the past day - so basically a constant rate of new cases since March 22. New cases have to reduce several fold, maybe down to the tens of patients, before the lockdown is lifted.

Packing people into public spaces like sardines has been a way of life here for a long time, but it's certainly not a good public health situation. Once the lockdown is lifted I have no idea what life here will be like. There is an elevator in the subway station near my workplace that we all call "the tuberculator". We still took it without a second thought...but will people willingly get into it now?
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by shekels » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:46 pm

I do not speak Korean but
What can it Hurt.
face-with-medical-mask_1f637.png
face-with-medical-mask_1f637.png (16.42 KiB) Viewed 154 times
Leading COVID-19 expert from South Korea, explains why everyone should be wearing a mask.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1243975060307599360
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:51 pm

The Missus made us masks!
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