Coronavirus General Discussion
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/th ... qus_thread
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/th ... qus_thread
- Mountaineer
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Orangeness.
Thanks for the memories. Our baby daughter, now 50, loved carrot baby food. We inexperienced parents knew we needed to cut back when her skin turned orange. Beta carotene to the max!

Thanks for the memories. Our baby daughter, now 50, loved carrot baby food. We inexperienced parents knew we needed to cut back when her skin turned orange. Beta carotene to the max!
“He who denies the existence of God, has some reason for wishing that God did not exist.” — Augustine Of Hippo
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
I saw that. The most egregious detail to me is this that I found in another article:flyingpylon wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:20 pmThe Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/th ... qus_thread
"Ferguson said community testing and contact tracing wasn’t included as a possible strategy in the original modelling because not enough tests were available."
He assumed we'd never have enough tests -- an important assumption that hasn't held up. For reference, the UK is on the verge (within days or weeks depending on who you ask) of having millions of take-home antibody tests, which basically completely blows up the original model. It's a classic example of how static analysis is a terrible way to model reality in a dynamic world.
Last edited by Tyler on Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
All models are wrong, some are useful
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Sure. Without getting into the blame game, I'll simply point out that evidence is mounting that things aren't nearly as bad as we've been led to believe. As new information invalidates old models, life could get back to normal faster than many people are predicting.
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
In other news, the Indy 500 has officially been postponed until August 23rd. Gonna be a HOT one this year I guess.
- vnatale
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Just went outside for the first time in two days to walk across the street to get two days of mail / newspaper.
I was first hit by a totally frigid north facing garage.
But much milder as I got outside. And, there were a lot of neighborhood kids playing on the trampoline on the other side of the fence adjoining my property.
As I was walking back and forth from the garage, seeing ALMOST all the snow had melted and feeling the mildness of the weather I wondered if I should stay out and read and listen to music.
Came back in and see it is 55 degrees. Too cold for that. Would have been warm enough to do some work outside.
Vinny
I was first hit by a totally frigid north facing garage.
But much milder as I got outside. And, there were a lot of neighborhood kids playing on the trampoline on the other side of the fence adjoining my property.
As I was walking back and forth from the garage, seeing ALMOST all the snow had melted and feeling the mildness of the weather I wondered if I should stay out and read and listen to music.
Came back in and see it is 55 degrees. Too cold for that. Would have been warm enough to do some work outside.
Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Cruise ship with 42 sick passengers and crew headed to Florida
https://thehill.com/policy/transportati ... to-florida
https://thehill.com/policy/transportati ... to-florida
“As a white person of colour, I am extremely concerned about the rise of black whiteness.” — Titania McGrath
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
There are still some cruise ships out there operating during a global pandemic? Why?dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:24 pmCruise ship with 42 sick passengers and crew headed to Florida
https://thehill.com/policy/transportati ... to-florida
Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
Why indeed. Bars are closed but here come the cruise ships. Makes no sense.
“As a white person of colour, I am extremely concerned about the rise of black whiteness.” — Titania McGrath
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
- vnatale
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Re: Coronavirus General Discussion
The white fence is about six feet high. Then the trampolines outlines extend for another three feet over it.
Therefore I was not actually seeing anyone. Just heard a lot of children's voices. Could have been as few as three or four. At the time I did not have in mind doing a detailed report on that aspect of it. What was going through my mind regarding them was..."If they are outside, I should also!"
Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."