Coronavirus General Discussion

[flyingpylon]

The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/th ... qus_thread

[Mountaineer]

Orangeness.

Thanks for the memories. Our baby daughter, now 50, loved carrot baby food. We inexperienced parents knew we needed to cut back when her skin turned orange. Beta carotene to the max!

[Tyler]

The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/th ... qus_thread

I saw that. The most egregious detail to me is this that I found in another article:

"Ferguson said community testing and contact tracing wasn’t included as a possible strategy in the original modelling because not enough tests were available."

He assumed we'd never have enough tests -- an important assumption that hasn't held up. For reference, the UK is on the verge (within days or weeks depending on who you ask) of having millions of take-home antibody tests, which basically completely blows up the original model. It's a classic example of how static analysis is a terrible way to model reality in a dynamic world.

[ochotona]

All models are wrong, some are useful

[Tyler]

All models are wrong, some are useful

Sure. Without getting into the blame game, I'll simply point out that evidence is mounting that things aren't nearly as bad as we've been led to believe. As new information invalidates old models, life could get back to normal faster than many people are predicting.

[flyingpylon]

In other news, the Indy 500 has officially been postponed until August 23rd. Gonna be a HOT one this year I guess.

[vnatale]

Just went outside for the first time in two days to walk across the street to get two days of mail / newspaper.

I was first hit by a totally frigid north facing garage.

But much milder as I got outside. And, there were a lot of neighborhood kids playing on the trampoline on the other side of the fence adjoining my property.

As I was walking back and forth from the garage, seeing ALMOST all the snow had melted and feeling the mildness of the weather I wondered if I should stay out and read and listen to music.

Came back in and see it is 55 degrees. Too cold for that. Would have been warm enough to do some work outside.

Vinny

[dualstow]

Cruise ship with 42 sick passengers and crew headed to Florida
https://thehill.com/policy/transportati ... to-florida

[Tortoise]

And, there were a lot of neighborhood kids playing on the trampoline on the other side of the fence adjoining my property.

Playing together, in a big group?

[Tortoise]

Cruise ship with 42 sick passengers and crew headed to Florida
https://thehill.com/policy/transportati ... to-florida

There are still some cruise ships out there operating during a global pandemic? Why?

[dualstow]

Why indeed. Bars are closed but here come the cruise ships. Makes no sense.

[vnatale]

And, there were a lot of neighborhood kids playing on the trampoline on the other side of the fence adjoining my property.

Playing together, in a big group?

The white fence is about six feet high. Then the trampolines outlines extend for another three feet over it.

Therefore I was not actually seeing anyone. Just heard a lot of children's voices. Could have been as few as three or four. At the time I did not have in mind doing a detailed report on that aspect of it. What was going through my mind regarding them was..."If they are outside, I should also!"

Vinny