Coronavirus General Discussion

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

flyingpylon
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 701
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:04 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:20 pm

The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/th ... qus_thread
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4315
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:24 pm

Orangeness. ;D

Thanks for the memories. Our baby daughter, now 50, loved carrot baby food. We inexperienced parents knew we needed to cut back when her skin turned orange. Beta carotene to the max!
“He who denies the existence of God, has some reason for wishing that God did not exist.” — Augustine Of Hippo
User avatar
Tyler
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1956
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 3:23 pm
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tyler » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:26 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:20 pm
The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/th ... qus_thread
I saw that. The most egregious detail to me is this that I found in another article:

"Ferguson said community testing and contact tracing wasn’t included as a possible strategy in the original modelling because not enough tests were available."

He assumed we'd never have enough tests -- an important assumption that hasn't held up. For reference, the UK is on the verge (within days or weeks depending on who you ask) of having millions of take-home antibody tests, which basically completely blows up the original model. It's a classic example of how static analysis is a terrible way to model reality in a dynamic world.
Last edited by Tyler on Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3214
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by ochotona » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:32 pm

All models are wrong, some are useful
User avatar
Tyler
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1956
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 3:23 pm
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tyler » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:39 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:32 pm
All models are wrong, some are useful
Sure. Without getting into the blame game, I'll simply point out that evidence is mounting that things aren't nearly as bad as we've been led to believe. As new information invalidates old models, life could get back to normal faster than many people are predicting.
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
flyingpylon
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 701
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:04 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by flyingpylon » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:53 pm

In other news, the Indy 500 has officially been postponed until August 23rd. Gonna be a HOT one this year I guess.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5408
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm

Just went outside for the first time in two days to walk across the street to get two days of mail / newspaper.

I was first hit by a totally frigid north facing garage.

But much milder as I got outside. And, there were a lot of neighborhood kids playing on the trampoline on the other side of the fence adjoining my property.

As I was walking back and forth from the garage, seeing ALMOST all the snow had melted and feeling the mildness of the weather I wondered if I should stay out and read and listen to music.

Came back in and see it is 55 degrees. Too cold for that. Would have been warm enough to do some work outside.

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11254
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:24 pm

Cruise ship with 42 sick passengers and crew headed to Florida
https://thehill.com/policy/transportati ... to-florida
“As a white person of colour, I am extremely concerned about the rise of black whiteness.” — Titania McGrath
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2334
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:26 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
And, there were a lot of neighborhood kids playing on the trampoline on the other side of the fence adjoining my property.
Playing together, in a big group? ::)
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2334
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by Tortoise » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:28 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:24 pm
Cruise ship with 42 sick passengers and crew headed to Florida
https://thehill.com/policy/transportati ... to-florida
There are still some cruise ships out there operating during a global pandemic? Why?
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11254
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:31 pm

Why indeed. Bars are closed but here come the cruise ships. Makes no sense.
“As a white person of colour, I am extremely concerned about the rise of black whiteness.” — Titania McGrath
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5408
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Post by vnatale » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:44 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:26 pm
vnatale wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
And, there were a lot of neighborhood kids playing on the trampoline on the other side of the fence adjoining my property.
Playing together, in a big group? ::)
The white fence is about six feet high. Then the trampolines outlines extend for another three feet over it.

Therefore I was not actually seeing anyone. Just heard a lot of children's voices. Could have been as few as three or four. At the time I did not have in mind doing a detailed report on that aspect of it. What was going through my mind regarding them was..."If they are outside, I should also!"

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
Post Reply