Homelessness on the Rise?

[Tortoise]

I met up with some friends in L.A. this past weekend. As I drove on the freeway through downtown, most of the overpasses were covered with permanent-looking encampments of tents and even a few old RVs. It looked almost post-apocalyptic; definitely an eyesore. And it wasn't like that the last time I drove through downtown L.A. just two or three years ago.

Something big has changed in just the last few years, but what?

Homeless encampments have been rapidly growing not only in L.A., but in many other big cities across the U.S. Whatever is causing the growth isn't specific to just one or two cities. It's systemic.

I've searched for information about this issue, and all of the articles and research papers I've skimmed (dozens of them) point the finger at the same primary cause: Increased housing prices and rents due to the booming economy. But I just don't buy it.

Whenever I pass by homeless people in big cities, it's clear to me that the main issue isn't simply that they lack shelter -- it's that the vast majority of them are completely drugged out, mumbling to themselves, or screaming at other homeless people, passersby, or imaginary entities. They are suffering from drug addiction and mental health issues.

What I'm struggling to understand is why we are seeing so many more of these people living on the streets than we did not only a couple of decades ago, but even just a few years ago. Why the alarmingly rapid increase?

What is the REAL explanation for why homeless tent encampments have been growing like malignant cancer in America's biggest cities over just the past few years? If the answer is indeed housing prices, are some houses and apartments just remaining empty? Both the housing supply and the population are relatively fixed, aren't they?

[Tyler]

This report is worth your time: Seattle is Dying

Homelessness is definitely growing, and it really has very little to do with housing prices. As the journalist who shot the above video has pointed out, the people who simply can't afford housing generally go unseen because they sleep in their cars or in shelters while working to get back on their feet. But the homeless you see sleeping on the streets are overwhelmingly suffering from some form of drug addiction and/or mental illness. And the cities seem unwilling or unable to effectively help them.

I wish I knew how to fix it. I do know a bad solution when I see one, and what we're doing now clearly isn't working.

[WiseOne]

I've read article after article and also saw that video, but no one seems to be trying to figure out why this is happening. So tried hunting for reports on where homeless is increasing the most.

Looks like it's mainly California and Seattle having the problem. New York City is up there too in absolute numbers, but it's much smaller as a % of population, plus with the weather we have here most of them are confined to shelters.

I don't buy the housing price theory for a second either. The homeless people that I see don't exactly look capable of interviewing successfully with a landlord, signing a lease, and whipping out a checkbook to pay the deposit.

Drug addiction and mental health problems don't explain the dramatic increase. Both have always been with us.

My suspicion: remember the tens of thousands (at least; could be hundreds of thousands) of people who flooded across the border, were picked up by USCIS then promptly released to disappear happily into the interior? Well, how many of them went and got jobs and apartments and are living productive lives? My guess is, not many. I would also guess that the states that boldly announced their desire to take in these "new immigrants" got exactly what they asked for. The newcomers may or may not have joined the homeless population, but for sure they are straining local welfare services and displacing US citizens in need. In fact, I'd be surprised if this weren't happening.

[Tortoise]

This report is worth your time: Seattle is Dying

I actually watched that report a while back when someone on this board (maybe you? don't remember) first posted it.

It opened my eyes to the effect that law enforcement (or lack thereof) can have on the homeless problem, but the overall impression I got was that lack of enforcement just exacerbates the problem; it isn't the main engine driving the problem.

Homelessness is definitely growing, and it really has very little to do with housing prices. As the journalist who shot the above video has pointed out, the people who simply can't afford housing generally go unseen because they sleep in their cars or in shelters while working to get back on their feet. But the homeless you see sleeping on the streets are overwhelmingly suffering from some form of drug addiction and/or mental illness. And the cities seem unwilling or unable to effectively help them.

As WiseOne pointed out, drug addiction and mental illness have always been with us. So they don't explain why the homeless problem has been increasing so quickly over the past few years.

Again, that's my real question -- not why we have a homeless problem, but why the homeless problem has exploded so rapidly over the past few years. We're talking only three or four years, not decades.

My suspicion: remember the tens of thousands (at least; could be hundreds of thousands) of people who flooded across the border, were picked up by USCIS then promptly released to disappear happily into the interior? Well, how many of them went and got jobs and apartments and are living productive lives? My guess is, not many. I would also guess that the states that boldly announced their desire to take in these "new immigrants" got exactly what they asked for. The newcomers may or may not have joined the homeless population, but for sure they are straining local welfare services and displacing US citizens in need. In fact, I'd be surprised if this weren't happening.

That's... a really good point. It would be interesting to know how many newly (i.e., within the past few years) homeless people became homeless mainly due to a social service or form of welfare that recently became unavailable to them due to a sudden spike in demand.

I suspect the real explanation for this mess may still be eluding us.

[boglerdude]

1) Minimum wage laws prevent barely-functional people from just walking into a shop and picking up a broom. The Gig Worker law will put more people on the street.

2) Cultural attitude shift. Remember when a deadbeat deserved a kid in the ass, and it worked? On Nextdoor around here, half the posts in homeless threads are "be nice and give them apartments." Its too unpopular to do what needs to be done, which is move the methadone/heroin clinics out to the desert. They can live in barracks and get high and not take a dump and pass out on my doorstep. I'm happy to pay for their drugs and a bus/train to job centers, with my tax dollars.

3) Zoning. The same folks defending the homeless turn around and block new apartment construction in their backyard. "There's too much traffic and not enough parking already"

4) The "missing" inflation. Trillion dollar deficits for a decade. Trade deficit - the USD we send to China for stuff comes back to buy assets. The high minimum wage pushes up all American salaries, so easy jobs go overseas. + automation.

[Tortoise]

Those are all good points, boglerdude, but they are all long-term trends that have been advancing for decades.

What has happened in the last few years that could explain why homelessness seems to have increased so rapidly over that short timeframe?

[Kriegsspiel]

The Census occurs every 10 years, so they need to stockpile bodies to get their population count up.

Speaking of a census, merry Christmas everyone.

[ochotona]

The Census occurs every 10 years, so they need to stockpile bodies to get their population count up.

Speaking of a census, merry Christmas everyone.

DuGUlQPW4AA-L4i.jpg (184.36 KiB) Viewed 5698 times

[dualstow]

Oh well, at least you didn’t post the Banksy version.

In Seattle, I do buy the housing price theory. It has soared dramatically in recent years, has it not?

[Tyler]

As WiseOne pointed out, drug addiction and mental illness have always been with us. So they don't explain why the homeless problem has been increasing so quickly over the past few years.

Again, that's my real question -- not why we have a homeless problem, but why the homeless problem has exploded so rapidly over the past few years. We're talking only three or four years, not decades.

Good point.

I think you're onto something with enforcement (or lack thereof), and it runs pretty deep. Even if enforcement policies do not cause homelessness they can create an environment that allows it to thrive.

The prime recent example is when California passed Prop 47 in 2014 which downgraded possession of illegal narcotics for personal use and theft of anything under $950 in value from felonies to misdemeanors. Combine that with a willingness of law enforcement to look the other way on most misdemeanors as a waste of time to prosecute, and California effectively decriminalized drug use and theft and made it easier than ever to live on the streets. The massive spike in car break-ins in San Francisco in recent years is surely no coincidence.

There are lots of other examples, from the DA of San Francisco declining to prosecute prostitution and blocking public sidewalks in an effort to "decriminalize poverty and homelessness" to the city of Portland proposing new zoning laws requiring all new commercial and residential real estate to build "spaces" for homeless people even on private property. Add it all up, and there seems to be a trend in big cities to promote policies that incentivize homeless people to move there and do whatever they want with no fear of any consequences for their behavior. And when you incentivize something, you tend to get more of it.

BTW, I understand that many people who support these permissive policies see them as acts of compassion. But personally I see it as the removal of an effective feedback loop. Sometimes being forced to face a judge is the best thing that can happen to someone who truly needs help. The decriminalization of the many behaviors associated with homelessness may sound compassionate on the surface but just makes it even harder to legally do anything about it.

[WiseOne]

The prime recent example is when California passed Prop 47 in 2014 which downgraded possession of illegal narcotics for personal use and theft of anything under $950 in value from felonies to misdemeanors. Combine that with a willingness of law enforcement to look the other way on most misdemeanors as a waste of time to prosecute, and California effectively decriminalized drug use and theft and made it easier than ever to live on the streets. The massive spike in car break-ins in San Francisco in recent years is surely no coincidence.

Wow, I never connected the reversal of the "Broken Windows" policy with homelessness, but that makes complete sense.

Those of us who remember the bad old days of the 1980s in NYC, with high levels of violent & property crime leading to "white flight", aren't going to be anxious to go back to that. I'm watching events with trepidation because, thanks to our idiot mayor and his pogrom against the NYPD, crime in NYC is going up across the board. As far as I'm concerned, this is a pretty good test of the hypothesis that controlling minor "lifestyle" crimes prevents bigger crimes. I bet if I checked, it's going to be pretty clearly related to the increase in homelessness. The city is pretending like nothing is wrong, and it's even extending to officially ignoring the recent murder of a Barnard College student in a park that used to be safe. The Guardian Angels have resurfaced and are now patrolling the park, in the absence of any kind of police or city response.

We in NYC remember the bad old days and will respond accordingly if this is allowed to continue, but I have no idea what's going to happen in California. I depends on whether those cities are capable of learning from our experience, and setting aside concerns about racial profiling and bad outcomes of police confrontations.

[ochotona]

Even in fast-growing, prosperous, and generally conservative Harris County TX, I see more and more homeless encampments. Lots along Interstate 10 where I travel. I shudder to think what happens when unemployment cycles back from 3.5% to double that or more someday, I doubt the business cycle has been abolished. Will it be like the 1930s again?

[dualstow]

Wow, I never connected the reversal of the "Broken Windows" policy with homelessness, but that makes complete sense.

Those of us who remember the bad old days of the 1980s in NYC, with high levels of violent & property crime leading to "white flight", aren't going to be anxious to go back to that. I'm watching events with trepidation because, thanks to our idiot mayor and his pogrom against the NYPD, crime in NYC is going up across the board.

Similar mayor here. May as well be a rubber stamp of DiBlasio. Very blasé on crime while making sure that violent criminals don't feel offended.

[Tortoise]

Regarding the homeless encampments that are growing noticeably all over the U.S., where are the additional homeless people coming from? Where did they live before they joined the homeless encampments?

Were they previously more nomadic, wandering between less visible, out-of-the-way areas since police made it hard for them to settle down in towns and big cities? But now with the weaker laws and weaker enforcement, those people no longer have to be nomads?

[Xan]

I read an article somewhere by a guy who had a period of homelessness in his life. He said he made camp outside of town, and had plenty of time to hike into town (and back) to conduct his business. He said it was more considerate of everyone than camping in town, and (IIRC) in some ways easier on him and in other ways harder.

[dualstow]

Regarding the homeless encampments that are growing noticeably all over the U.S., where are the additional homeless people coming from? Where did they live before they joined the homeless encampments?

Were they previously more nomadic, wandering between less visible, out-of-the-way areas since police made it hard for them to settle down in towns and big cities? But now with the weaker laws and weaker enforcement, those people no longer have to be nomads?

In one of the docos I saw -- Seattle, but I'm not sure if it's the one mentioned here -- a lot of the people used to live in apartments before the rent was raised. Some ended up in their van or in a shelter for a while, but some invariably joint the encampments.

Lots of them had full-time jobs, btw. I think it was on 60 Minutes that they recently interviewed a postal worker living in her car or some vehicle. All tidy in her uniform, you'd never know. And she said most people she met on the job had no idea.

[Maddy]

I don't think this is exactly what WiseOne meant, but I suspect her signature alone could, in the old days, have put many of them in state psychiatric hospitals. Not such a bad idea for those who are so gravely disabled that they can't discriminate between a toilet and a doorstep.

[boglerdude]

> Regarding the homeless encampments that are growing noticeably all over the U.S., where are the additional homeless people coming from?

Places like Detroit/Appalachia? "Easy" manufacturing jobs go overseas. Everyone has to go where the tech jobs are eg Seattle. Rents go up making some locals homeless. Building more housing is illegal (zoning) but Seattle is building relatively fast.

[Kriegsspiel]

A lot of people are on head meds now. One explanation could be that our society is driving people insane at a higher rate than before? Speculative.

[Kriegsspiel]

DuGUlQPW4AA-L4i.jpg

[WiseOne]

I found the documentary that I think dualstow was referring to on Amazon Prime, and watched it. Unfortunately, docos like that tend to cherry pick the people they choose to interview. Obviously they're going to seek out the most intelligent and conversant people, and the ones with the most TV-worthy stories to tell. I doubt very much that those interviewed were truly representative.

I still can't quite understand what might be causing homelessness to increase - because, if you're not mentally ill or extremely low intelligence (which probably is related to a condition causing impaired brain function which we typically call "developmental delay"), I can't understand how you'd end up homeless in the first place. There's so many things you can do. Here's a short list that comes to mind after, oh, maybe 60 seconds of thought:

- Enlist in the military
- Volunteer for the Peace Corps
- Go pitch your tent in or near a national park and sign up for a job that includes housing (a friend of my brother's did this for a few years after college...he loved it).
- If the problem is that the rent is too high and you have no relatives nearby to take you in, what's stopping you from moving to a low cost of living area where you can find cheap housing? Who said you have to live in Manhattan, for example, when you can rent for a fraction of Manhattan prices in Flatbush?
- Check out ads for sublets or rooms in a house to share - every city has lots of these and they are way cheaper and easier than renting a place on your own.

Not to mention that eviction doesn't happen overnight. People who are about to be evicted have plenty of warning, especially in the cities most affected by homelessness who all have landlord-tenant laws that make evictions a difficult and very long process.

That's why my first instinct was that social services are somehow not keeping up with increasing demand. Otherwise, you'd have to postulate that developmental delay and psychotic/disordered illness are increasing. That would be very important to find out if it's true!!! It's definitely true for depression & anxiety, but I don't think those are big risk factors for homelessness.

[jhogue]

Never forget the first law of political economy: Whatever you subsidize, you will get more of, whether it is B-52 bombers or homeless encampments. LA, San Francisco, Portland, and Seattle all have really nice weather and really nice mayors who are dedicated to the proposition that their homeless constituents can never be provided enough nice social services—which are always a subsidy; an inducement to stay; and an attraction for more to come to town and camp out.

The reverse is also true: No reports of homeless encampments in, for instance, the small towns of the Oklahoma panhandle or rural North Dakota (or other red states) despite their significantly lower cost of housing.


I can remember the late 1970’s when the nickname for Bryant Park in central Manhattan was “Needle Park” By the 1990s, after the Giuliani administration waged a non-stop campaign against such behavior, Bryant Park had become a green oasis again, with office workers enjoying open air lunches by day and crowds watching free classic movies at night under the stars. At least before the DeBlasio/Cuomo circus came to town, there were always plenty of New York’s Finest on hand, just to make sure the fun didn’t get out of hand.

[dualstow]

I found the documentary that I think dualstow was referring to on Amazon Prime, and watched it. Unfortunately, docos like that tend to cherry pick the people they choose to interview.

Could be, but most of my specific examples were from 60 Minutes.

[Libertarian666]

The prime recent example is when California passed Prop 47 in 2014 which downgraded possession of illegal narcotics for personal use and theft of anything under $950 in value from felonies to misdemeanors. Combine that with a willingness of law enforcement to look the other way on most misdemeanors as a waste of time to prosecute, and California effectively decriminalized drug use and theft and made it easier than ever to live on the streets. The massive spike in car break-ins in San Francisco in recent years is surely no coincidence.

Wow, I never connected the reversal of the "Broken Windows" policy with homelessness, but that makes complete sense.

Those of us who remember the bad old days of the 1980s in NYC, with high levels of violent & property crime leading to "white flight", aren't going to be anxious to go back to that. I'm watching events with trepidation because, thanks to our idiot mayor and his pogrom against the NYPD, crime in NYC is going up across the board. As far as I'm concerned, this is a pretty good test of the hypothesis that controlling minor "lifestyle" crimes prevents bigger crimes. I bet if I checked, it's going to be pretty clearly related to the increase in homelessness. The city is pretending like nothing is wrong, and it's even extending to officially ignoring the recent murder of a Barnard College student in a park that used to be safe. The Guardian Angels have resurfaced and are now patrolling the park, in the absence of any kind of police or city response.

We in NYC remember the bad old days and will respond accordingly if this is allowed to continue, but I have no idea what's going to happen in California. I depends on whether those cities are capable of learning from our experience, and setting aside concerns about racial profiling and bad outcomes of police confrontations.

How exactly are you going to "respond accordingly"? I don't see any way to do that other than to flee to a safer location.
Of course you are always welcome in Texas!

[Libertarian666]

Even in fast-growing, prosperous, and generally conservative Harris County TX, I see more and more homeless encampments. Lots along Interstate 10 where I travel. I shudder to think what happens when unemployment cycles back from 3.5% to double that or more someday, I doubt the business cycle has been abolished. Will it be like the 1930s again?

Harris County is where Houston is located, if I recall correctly.
Houston is run by Democrats.
Don't live in a city run by Democrats if you want a good quality of life.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/three-de ... john-nolte