Optimism is sexy!

[Wonk]

It's one day before a "Wonk Freaky Friday" post, but I noticed a good link that should give us all some inspiration:

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ti ... 28524.html

As PP investors, we seem to be fascinated by all the ways the world financial system can implode and take us back to the stone age.  While anything is possible, I feel that an obsession with negative visualization can be a self-reinforcing problem.

Granted, this guy is pimping his book, but he's telling the truth.  We live in an age of great opportunity and like all other eras of great opportunity--it's filled with rapid change and a healthy dose of strife.  I'm confident we have more financial pain ahead, but I also know people will find a way to make a lot more money by adding value to other people's lives.  It worked in the 30s & 70s and it will work today.

Every day we have two choices: focus on the negative or focus on the positive.  It's more fun (and usually profitable) spending time with positive people so I've chosen the latter.  You've picked the right investment strategy, now do yourself a favor--figure out a way to add value to someone's life that they will happily pay for, put a smile on your face and go make it happen.

[Lone Wolf]

When you stack up how lucky we are to be alive, conscious and living in the developed world in the wealthiest, most advanced part of human history, it's hard not to be an optimist.  I think that humanity has great things in store for it (not to take anything away from the great things we enjoy today.)

From looking at history, I found there was no denying the constant upward trends in wealth, standard of living and opportunity.  What was also clear is that this upward trend was frequently interrupted by chaos that from an individual's perspective might have looked like the end of the world.  (And in something like war, it often quite literally is the end of that person's world.)

To me, what's fascinating about the Permanent Portfolio is that it is designed to step past that day-to-day, month-to-month, year-to-year chaos so that you can remove yourself from these things.  Once you do, you simply can't escape how good we've got it (and how much better our children will probably have it.)

[MediumTex]

I saw a piece the other day noting that one of the things that make successful people successful is that they are always on the lookout for opportunities, and thus tend to find more than the folks living under the bridges and wearing the sandwich boards.

OTOH, has anyone seen the women Nouriel Roubini dates?  (they are not ugly)

Then again, maybe he is not as pessimistic as he makes himself out to be...

[Storm]

I love the video and book.  Not that I necessarily agree with it, but it sure is nice to hear about all the money that can be made, and opportunity that exists here in the US.

Hell, if 25 year olds can retire in austerity by using the ERE plan, I don't see why not a bunch of old rich folks like us can't retire at 50 and date supermodels... If economists like Roubini can get them, why can't we? 

[Pkg Man]

I love the video and book.  Not that I necessarily agree with it, but it sure is nice to hear about all the money that can be made, and opportunity that exists here in the US.

Hell, if 25 year olds can retire in austerity by using the ERE plan, I don't see why not a bunch of old rich folks like us can't retire at 50 and date supermodels... If economists like Roubini can get them, why can't we?   ;D

That's precisely my plan :-)

[LifestyleFreedom]

I remember when How to Survive the Coming Bad Years was a best seller in 1979.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Ruff

In 1999, Dow 36,000, Dow 40,000 and Dow 100,000 were best sellers.
http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_39/b3648125.htm

The audience for optimism and pessimism shifts and authors adapt to the changing demand.

I've read where someone is most influenced by their 5 closest friends (i.e., if they are negative, you will be negative; if they are positive, you will be positive), so it's important to hang around optimistic and positive people if you want to be successful.

[Tortoise]

I've read where someone is most influenced by their 5 closest friends (i.e., if they are negative, you will be negative; if they are positive, you will be positive), so it's important to hang around optimistic and positive people if you want to be successful.

I've heard that, too, and I've always wondered about the direction of causality there. From what I've observed in my own life, the reason people tend to resemble their friends is because they choose friends who resemble themselves in certain ways.

[pershing83]

Pessimism is a function of age, you get older and more pessimistic about the mkt's, teenagers, gov't. That sort of thing. This does not mean you are not happy though I guess one could become an old grouch (or even a young grouch).

[MediumTex]

Pessimism is a function of age, you get older and more pessimistic about the mkt's, teenagers, gov't. That sort of thing. This does not mean you are not happy though I guess one could become an old grouch (or even a young grouch).

On that note, I think it was Winston Churchill who said something like:

"Show me a young conservative and I will show you someone with no heart.  Show me an old liberal and I will show you someone with no brains."

[HB Reader]

Yeah, the French have a similar saying:

"If a man is not a socialist when he is twenty, he has no heart.  If he is not a capitalist when he is fifty, he has no brain."

[LifestyleFreedom]

Pessimism is a function of age, you get older and more pessimistic about the mkt's, teenagers, gov't. That sort of thing.

This is an interesting coincidence.  I've been keeping a journal of my thoughts for decades (I find it interesting to see how I thought at various times when I was younger and have learned a lot about myself by doing so).

Today I was feeling "safe but vulnerable" in that although I'm in the best position I've ever been in financially, I keep worrying that everything is about to come crashing down at a moment's notice.

I concluded that the reason I was more optimistic in my younger days is because I wasn't aware of all the things in life that could go wrong (I was aware of them intellectually, but not experientially).  Now, however, I know from first hand experience that "Murphy was an optimist" and so I just assume as a planning premise that things will go wrong and I need to plan for the downside risk more than the upside opportunity.

I also remember people telling me when I was younger that I could "lose it all" two or three times and still have enough time to get it all back.  But as I get older, I realize I have fewer "second chances" left, which is probably why Harry Browne came up with the Permanent Portfolio concept -- for money we can't afford to lose.

[HB Reader]

On that note, I think it was Winston Churchill who said something like:

"Show me a young conservative and I will show you someone with no heart.  Show me an old liberal and I will show you someone with no brains."

My favorite Churchill quote supposedly occurred at a big dinner table one night when the woman sitting next to him said, "Mister Prime Minister, I believe you are drunk."

He replied, "I may be drunk, but you're ugly.  At least in the morning I'll be sober." 

[MediumTex]

Here's another good Churchill quote:

"Success consists of going from failure to failure without a loss of enthusiasm."

I was sorry to see a poll a few years ago in which 25% of Britons thought that Winston Churchill was a fictional character, while 50% thought Sherlock Holmes was a real person.

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