Gyroscopic Investing

Crane County, TX, 2017 population 4,740, has a COVID-19 case. Probably that person's family, also. Friends, co-workers. But they are not known to the health system.

1/4740 = 0.02%

If projected over 327 million US population, that would scale to 65,400 cases, about where we are (or will be in a few hours or a day).

I don't think there are "untouched" places in the USA where an Easter restart would be a good idea. If not Crane County, then where? That horse left the barn weeks ago.

There are nine churches in the county seat, the city of Crane. If they got together on Easter, I can imagine 2-4 weeks post-Easter there would be a number of new cases.

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:48 am Crane County, TX, 2017 population 4,740, has a COVID-19 case. Probably that person's family, also. Friends, co-workers. But they are not known to the health system.

1/4740 = 0.02%

If projected over 327 million US population, that would scale to 65,400 cases, about where we are (or will be in a few hours or a day).

I don't think there are "untouched" places in the USA where an Easter restart would be a good idea. If not Crane County, then where? That horse left the barn weeks ago.

There are nine churches in the county seat, the city of Crane. If they got together on Easter, I can imagine 2-4 weeks post-Easter there would be a number of new cases.

Hopkins County (2010 population 35000) also has a confirmed case.
There used to be an uninfected area about 100 miles across in Northeast Texas.
Not any more.

But we still need to restart the economy or we will be headed into a second Great Depression.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:00 am

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:48 am Crane County, TX, 2017 population 4,740, has a COVID-19 case. Probably that person's family, also. Friends, co-workers. But they are not known to the health system.

1/4740 = 0.02%

If projected over 327 million US population, that would scale to 65,400 cases, about where we are (or will be in a few hours or a day).

I don't think there are "untouched" places in the USA where an Easter restart would be a good idea. If not Crane County, then where? That horse left the barn weeks ago.

There are nine churches in the county seat, the city of Crane. If they got together on Easter, I can imagine 2-4 weeks post-Easter there would be a number of new cases.

Hopkins County (2010 population 35000) also has a confirmed case.
There used to be an uninfected area about 100 miles across in Northeast Texas.
Not any more.

But we still need to restart the economy or we will be headed into a second Great Depression.

My county of 725 square miles and a population of about 71,000 (the least populated county in the Massachusetts mainland) had two cases as of a few days ago.

And, for future information this is the political orientation of the county (I am one of the Unenrolled):

Vinny

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:00 am Hopkins County (2010 population 35000) also has a confirmed case.
There used to be an uninfected area about 100 miles across in Northeast Texas.
Not any more.

But we still need to restart the economy or we will be headed into a second Great Depression.

Let's unpack that...

1. Stay shut down totally for duration > get 2nd Great Depression

2. Shut down temporarily > reopen > repeating waves of exponential growth > get to 2nd Great Depression somewhat more slowly but more deaths than in case 1

Honestly, if we reopen and we get anything near the worst-case number of deaths and ICU stays, and the hospitals collapse, and first-responders are taken down, do you really think people will volunteer to go to work, even if Feds allow it? Work is a voluntary activity for employee and employers. I would not.

I'm sure the Management Class and Business owners would be saying, "Hey you (expendable serfs), get back to work! I need to make my numbers!" At some level, many of us who work in companies work for b@stards like that. Workers are expendable... management elite are not.

And I submit, in case two, the vital supply chain is even more endangered... water, electricity, food, fuel... if we get to rampant, uncontrolled spread.

There are time when you're just screwed, and you have to admit it, face up to the new realities, and forge the best (or least worst) plan, and ignore all sunk costs. Clinging to what will not be makes it worse.

I think we're screwed, but we're in the Denial or Bargaining phase of of the Elizabeth Kubler-Ross psychological cycle. It's a 100% human thing to do, but it's not useful.

We're going to see in April / May how awful this gets. I think it will be pretty awful. People have a really hard time internalizing what exponential functions are. Many have never even studied them.

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:23 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:00 am Hopkins County (2010 population 35000) also has a confirmed case.
There used to be an uninfected area about 100 miles across in Northeast Texas.
Not any more.

But we still need to restart the economy or we will be headed into a second Great Depression.

Let's unpack that...

1. Stay shut down totally for duration > get 2nd Great Depression

2. Shut down temporarily > reopen > repeating waves of exponential growth > get to 2nd Great Depression somewhat more slowly but more deaths than in case 1

Honestly, if we reopen and we get anything near the worst-case number of deaths and ICU stays, and the hospitals collapse, and first-responders are taken down, do you really think people will volunteer to go to work, even if Feds allow it? Work is a voluntary activity for employee and employers. I would not.

I'm sure the Management Class and Business owners would be saying, "Hey you (expendable serfs), get back to work! I need to make my numbers!" At some level, many of us who work in companies work for b@stards like that. Workers are expendable... management elite are not.

And I submit, in case two, the vital supply chain is even more endangered... water, electricity, food, fuel... if we get to rampant, uncontrolled spread.

There are time when you're just screwed, and you have to admit it, face up to the new realities, and forge the best (or least worst) plan, and ignore all sunk costs. Clinging to what will not be makes it worse.

I think we're screwed, but we're in the Denial or Bargaining phase of of the Elizabeth Kubler-Ross psychological cycle. It's a 100% human thing to do, but it's not useful.

I think we will be getting better news in the next few days, so this is unlikely to occur.
And I'm usually the doomiest person in the room.

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:48 am I don't think there are "untouched" places in the USA where an Easter restart would be a good idea. If not Crane County, then where? That horse left the barn weeks ago.

You don't have to be completely virus-free to avoid a shutdown with widespread masks, testing, and treatments. It will take time, but it will come.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:02 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:32 am
I think we will be getting better news in the next few days

Care to elaborate?

Treatments that work in at least enough cases to keep the hospitals from being overrun.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:14 pm

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:02 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:32 am
I think we will be getting better news in the next few days

Care to elaborate?

Treatments that work in at least enough cases to keep the hospitals from being overrun.

Here's the best metric concerning this idea. It's not a news article that pops up from some click-baity site promising some miracle cure...

The metric is *** check to see if hospitals are actually being overrun ***

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:21 pm

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:46 pm
The metric is *** check to see if hospitals are actually being overrun ***

Do you doubt that they are? I believe WiseOne confirmed that.

Speaking of which...when is the last time any of us have heard from her? Yesterday? Day before? I could look it up but it makes the point that my perception of time lately has gotten extremely warped. And, since I have no routines yesterday for a while I did not know what day it was. Today I thought was Wednesday. I picked up a newspaper from the floor and it said Wednesday. But I'd not gone out to get today's paper. So was it really Thursday today and I'd somehow totally missed Wednesday? But today is an exercise day so it must be Wednesday. The confusion ended when I'd realized that the paper I'd picked up, which I had thought was yesterday's paper, turned out to be LAST Wednesday's paper.

Vinny

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:21 pm

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:46 pm
The metric is *** check to see if hospitals are actually being overrun ***

Do you doubt that they are? I believe WiseOne confirmed that.

I don't doubt at all what is being reported out of NYC. I just want to kick the shins of those who point to unproven, untested schemes, or alpha-stage technologies, and they say, "Oh look we're saved, everyone back to normal".

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:41 pm

vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:46 pm

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:21 pm

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:46 pm
The metric is *** check to see if hospitals are actually being overrun ***

Do you doubt that they are? I believe WiseOne confirmed that.

Speaking of which...when is the last time any of us have heard from her? Yesterday? Day before? I could look it up but it makes the point that my perception of time lately has gotten extremely warped. And, since I have no routines yesterday for a while I did not know what day it was. Today I thought was Wednesday. I picked up a newspaper from the floor and it said Wednesday. But I'd not gone out to get today's paper. So was it really Thursday today and I'd somehow totally missed Wednesday? But today is an exercise day so it must be Wednesday. The confusion ended when I'd realized that the paper I'd picked up, which I had thought was yesterday's paper, turned out to be LAST Wednesday's paper.

Vinny

You can check her profile under 'members' at the top right of the toolbar to see when her last post was. She's prob just swamped at work.

I realized that when I'd written the above...but I used it as an entre to describe the affects on me from being home day after day which are now blurring with no established routines and no sports going on - either that I participate in or that I watch.

Vinny

Analysis: Trump struggles to adjust to crisis presidency

https://apnews.com/5dd6b30e03542b435e2716e3e3a483e4



Vinny

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:46 pm

vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:44 pm

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:41 pm

vnatale wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:46 pm

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:21 pm

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:46 pm
The metric is *** check to see if hospitals are actually being overrun ***

Do you doubt that they are? I believe WiseOne confirmed that.

Speaking of which...when is the last time any of us have heard from her? Yesterday? Day before? I could look it up but it makes the point that my perception of time lately has gotten extremely warped. And, since I have no routines yesterday for a while I did not know what day it was. Today I thought was Wednesday. I picked up a newspaper from the floor and it said Wednesday. But I'd not gone out to get today's paper. So was it really Thursday today and I'd somehow totally missed Wednesday? But today is an exercise day so it must be Wednesday. The confusion ended when I'd realized that the paper I'd picked up, which I had thought was yesterday's paper, turned out to be LAST Wednesday's paper.

Vinny

You can check her profile under 'members' at the top right of the toolbar to see when her last post was. She's prob just swamped at work.

I realized that when I'd written the above...but I used it as an entre to describe the affects on me from being home day after day which are now blurring with no established routines and no sports going on - either that I participate in or that I watch.

Vinny

And she just posted 45 mins ago in another thread, which I did not see until after I responded to you.

I did see it prior to seeing yours above and responding to you. So far I believe I've seen two items from her today.

Vinny

Hey guys I'm here....not doing anything particularly constructive just a bunch of meetings and paperwork.

The goal of the lockdown is not to prevent people from getting the virus anymore. We all will eventually. It's to slow down the spread so that the medical system can handle the caseload.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:49 pm Hey guys I'm here....not doing anything particularly constructive just a bunch of meetings and paperwork.

The goal of the lockdown is not to prevent people from getting the virus anymore. We all will eventually. It's to slow down the spread so that the medical system can handle the caseload.

Ugh, I hope not. My sister would not survive it and my parents are octogenarians.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:49 pm Hey guys I'm here....not doing anything particularly constructive just a bunch of meetings and paperwork.

The goal of the lockdown is not to prevent people from getting the virus anymore. We all will eventually. It's to slow down the spread so that the medical system can handle the caseload.

Is this analogous to anything else (bad) that we all mutually experience?

When I was growing up the big 3 were measles, mumps, and chicken pox.

I don't think I got the first but did get the latter two.

Vinny

Fake Trump Explains How He Will Bring The Economy Back To Life On Easter

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/03/fake ... will-bring

vnatale wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm Fake Trump Explains How He Will Bring The Economy Back To Life On Easter

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/03/fake ... will-bring

That's some funny shite right there.

I first heard it on the Sports Talk Radio station I have on all the time (along with C-Span being on all the time).

I was not fully listening but then I was hearing some things and said to myself, "He did not really say that, did he??!!"

Then I finally caught on what was going on.

The three hosts could not restrain themselves from outbursts of laughter as it was being played.

VInny

vnatale wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:39 pm The three hosts could not restrain themselves from outbursts of laughter as it was being played.

Like how Fauci couldn't contain his laughter and had to cover his face after Trump cracked the joke about the "Deep State Department" during the recent press briefing?

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:21 pm

vnatale wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:39 pm The three hosts could not restrain themselves from outbursts of laughter as it was being played.

Like how Fauci couldn't contain his laughter and had to cover his face after Trump cracked the joke about the "Deep State Department" during the recent press briefing?

Is this the guy who tells us to not touch our faces?

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:21 pm

vnatale wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:39 pm The three hosts could not restrain themselves from outbursts of laughter as it was being played.

Like how Fauci couldn't contain his laughter and had to cover his face after Trump cracked the joke about the "Deep State Department" during the recent press briefing?

Who serves at the pleasure of the same president who exhorts us to maintain social distancing.

VInny

Ahh, it's refreshing to have some normal Trumpiness for once. Some things don't change. Oh, yeah, sure, give us 48 hours and we'll have a CAR plant retooled to make ventilators. Easy peasy.

We got a lot of engineers here, right? Why even give the impression this is doable in a quick fashion? Even if you took an existing design, you still have to source and create parts, PCBs, make tooling, test fixtures, etc, etc.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:53 am Ahh, it's refreshing to have some normal Trumpiness for once. Some things don't change. Oh, yeah, sure, give us 48 hours and we'll have a CAR plant retooled to make ventilators. Easy peasy.

Yet to his supporters this is all just.....


Vinny

Only tangentially about Trump: John Kerry agreeing with him. There *is* a tear in the fabric of the universe.

Kerry tweeted:

Breaking news: Congressman Massie has tested positive for being an asshole. He must be quarantined to prevent the spread of his massive stupidity. He's given new meaning to the term #Masshole. (Finally, something the president and I can agree on!)

https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/12 ... 38464?s=20